Simon Property Group (SPG)

Q: What's priced into Simon Property Group (SPG) stock?

The market appears to price SPG as cheap compared to its peers, with a slight expectations gap. However, there is a recognition of fragility due to weak execution quality, which may not fully reflect the potential risks in the current environment.

Q: What does the Simon Property Group (SPG) outlook hinge on?

The thesis hinges on several factors, including the Fed's potential interest rate cuts and the performance of sector bellwethers like O, KIM, and REG. A reversal in guidance could negatively impact credibility, while continued positive trends in the sector could provide support.

NYSEReal EstateReit - RetailSnapshot 2026-10-15

$205.44+1.01%

Close 2026-10-16 · 1-day change

Read the published Living FV report summary

Investment OutlookAs of Oct 15, 2026

What could strengthen or challenge Simon Property Group’s outlook?

The long-term thesis, the evidence coming in, and the environment around it. Thesis dated Jul 8, 2026.

Higher potential upsideImproving expectations

Next-FY EPS estimate change · 30 days

-1.6%

+10% or more+5%0%−5%−10% or less

7.11 → 6.99 EPS · FY ending Dec 31, 2027 · 5 analysts

Higher risk of downsideWeakening expectations

One observable signal. This measures changing earnings expectations, not the probability of a gain or loss.

How this is measured

Change in the same fiscal period’s mean EPS estimate from Sep 15, 2026 to Oct 15, 2026: (new ÷ prior − 1). Contributor count changed from 5 to 5; this is not the number of analysts revising. Source: FMP consensus snapshots. The ±10% axis is a display range.

Living FV™

Living Fair Value by QuarterlyIQ

A valuation that evolves as the business changes.

A published Living FV snapshot is not available yet. The valuation workflow remains discoverable; a market target cannot supply the missing evidence.

View Living FV report and workflow

What the Thesis Depends On

4 key conditions need to be met for the investment thesis to play out.

Key Factor	Why It Matters	Current Status	Break Condition	Latest Evidence
Maintain strong cash from operations near $833 million quarterly	The company maintains a strong profit margin with EPS guidance near $7.00.	Intact	Quarterly cash from operations falls below $700 million	Cash from operations: $1.196B FY2026-Q2; GAAP. Published target: >=833 million USD per quarter. Target period is not explicitly aligned with this observation. Source published Aug 10, 20261,195,563,000 USD · source valueSource reportLast status assessment Oct 15, 2026 Measurement source consolidated · GAAP FY2026-Q2 · Period ending Jun 30, 2026 Source: stock_quarterly_financials_fmp. Reference: 2026-Q2. Source status: unverified. Compare required operating outcomes Compare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement. Management context Stated as a priority in 2 of last 2 quarters. Cash from operations was $833 million in 2026-Q1 and liquidity stood at approximately $9.3 billion as of 2026-Q2, reflecting management's focus on maintaining strong operational cash flow and balance sheet flexibility. The trajectory shows stable liquidity and cash generation. Delivery assessment Oct 15, 2026
EPS guidance near $7.00 per share for 2026	It raised Real Estate FFO guidance to $13.18 per share for 2026.	Intact	EPS guidance falls below $6.44 per share in 2026	Diluted EPS: $1.49 per share FY2026-Q2; GAAP. Published target: >=7.00 USD per share. Target period ends 2026-12-31; this observation covers 2026-Q2. Source published Aug 10, 20261.49 USD/share · source valueSource reportLast status assessment Oct 15, 2026 Measurement source consolidated · GAAP FY2026-Q2 · Period ending Jun 30, 2026 Source: company_financial_results. Reference: 2ec4126a-5286-4659-bf97-b9b86b3b3e08. Source status: eligible. Compare required operating outcomes Compare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement.
Real Estate FFO guidance at ~$13.18 per share in 2026	It raised Real Estate FFO guidance to $13.18 per share for 2026.	Intact	Real Estate FFO guidance falls below $12.55 per share in 2026	Direct metric needs a verified mapping The published measure or accounting basis is not supported by an exact source binding. Source date unavailableLast status assessment Oct 15, 2026Compare required operating outcomes Compare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement.
PE ratio remains justified relative to peers	A supporting condition in Simon Property Group's published investment case. The stated target is <=35 PE ratio.	Intact	PE ratio rises above 50 without earnings growth	Valuation inputs unavailable A completed valuation measurement is required. Source date unavailableLast status assessment Oct 15, 2026Compare required operating outcomes Compare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement.

Stored thesis · Jul 8, 2026. Latest Evidence uses source-matched measurements where available, alongside the last thesis-monitor assessment. Source periods and assessment dates are shown separately. A new measurement does not automatically change the published status or verify an older target.

Incoming Evidence

Compare these dated observations with the operating requirements above

Expectations trend

Same fiscal period

FY2027 · fiscal year ending 2027-12-31 · fmp

FY2027 EPS$6.99

$7.05 → $6.99 · observed estimates

FY2027 revenue$6.96B

$6.88B → $6.96B · observed estimates

Exact estimates & source dates

One fiscal period and provider throughout. At least five contributors are required for each plotted metric; missing coverage stays a gap. Axes show the observed range. Counts measure coverage, not revisions.

FY2027 estimate observations · fmp
Snapshot	EPS	Revenue	EPS / revenue analysts
2026-07-24	$7.05	$6,881,712,188	6 / 7
2026-07-25	$7.05	$6,881,712,188	6 / 7
2026-07-26	$7.05	$6,906,039,938	6 / 7
2026-07-27	$7.05	$6,906,039,938	6 / 7
2026-07-28	$7.05	$6,906,039,938	6 / 7
2026-07-29	$6.74	$6,880,124,830	5 / 11
2026-07-30	$6.74	$6,880,124,830	5 / 11
2026-07-31	$6.74	$6,880,124,830	5 / 11
2026-08-01	$7.05	$6,906,039,938	7 / 8
2026-08-02	$6.74	$6,880,124,830	5 / 11
2026-08-03	$7.05	$6,906,039,938	7 / 8
2026-08-04	$6.74	$6,880,124,830	5 / 11
2026-08-05	$7.05	$6,906,039,938	7 / 8
2026-08-06	$7.05	$6,906,039,938	7 / 8
2026-08-08	$6.74	$6,880,124,830	5 / 11
2026-08-09	$6.74	$6,880,124,830	5 / 11
2026-08-10	$6.74	$6,880,124,830	5 / 11
2026-08-12	$6.71	$6,855,611,900	5 / 9
2026-08-13	$7.05	$6,906,039,938	7 / 8
2026-08-14	$7.05	$6,906,039,938	7 / 8
2026-08-15	$7.05	$6,906,039,938	7 / 8
2026-08-16	$7.05	$6,906,039,938	7 / 7
2026-08-17	$7.05	$6,906,039,938	7 / 7
2026-08-18	$7.05	$6,906,039,938	7 / 8
2026-08-19	$7.05	$6,906,039,938	7 / 8
2026-08-20	$6.94	$6,814,561,508	7 / 8
2026-08-21	$6.94	$6,820,872,100	7 / 8
2026-08-22	$6.94	$6,820,872,100	7 / 8
2026-08-23	$6.94	$6,820,872,100	7 / 8
2026-08-24	$6.94	$6,820,872,100	7 / 8
2026-08-25	$6.94	$6,820,872,100	7 / 8
2026-08-26	$6.94	$6,820,872,100	7 / 8
2026-08-27	$6.94	$6,820,872,100	7 / 8
2026-08-28	$6.94	$6,883,652,464	7 / 8
2026-08-29	$6.87	$6,890,497,100	7 / 7
2026-08-30	$6.87	$6,893,329,282	6 / 7
2026-08-31	$6.87	$6,893,329,282	6 / 7
2026-09-01	$6.87	$6,893,329,282	6 / 7
2026-09-02	$6.87	$6,893,329,282	6 / 7
2026-09-03	$6.87	$6,893,289,473	6 / 7
2026-09-04	$6.94	$6,893,289,476	6 / 7
2026-09-05	$6.94	$6,893,289,476	6 / 7
2026-09-06	$6.94	$6,893,289,476	6 / 7
2026-09-07	$6.94	$6,893,289,476	6 / 7
2026-09-08	$6.94	$6,893,289,476	6 / 7
2026-09-09	$6.94	$6,893,289,476	6 / 7
2026-09-10	$6.94	$6,893,289,476	6 / 7
2026-09-11	$6.94	$6,893,289,476	6 / 7
2026-09-12	$6.94	$6,893,289,476	6 / 6
2026-09-13	$6.94	$6,893,289,476	6 / 6
2026-09-14	$6.94	$6,893,289,476	5 / 6
2026-09-15	$7.11	$6,893,289,476	5 / 6
2026-09-16	$7.11	$6,893,289,476	6 / 6
2026-09-17	$7.11	$6,893,289,476	6 / 6
2026-09-18	$6.95	$6,878,072,343	6 / 6
2026-09-19	$7.00	$6,899,631,094	6 / 6
2026-09-20	$7.00	$6,899,631,094	6 / 6
2026-09-21	$7.00	$6,899,631,094	6 / 6
2026-09-22	$7.00	$6,899,631,094	6 / 6
2026-09-23	$7.00	$6,899,631,094	6 / 6
2026-09-24	$7.00	$6,899,631,094	6 / 6
2026-09-25	$7.00	$6,899,631,094	6 / 6
2026-09-26	$7.00	$6,899,631,094	6 / 6
2026-09-27	$7.00	$6,899,631,094	6 / 6
2026-09-28	$7.00	$6,899,631,094	6 / 6
2026-09-29	$7.00	$6,899,631,094	6 / 6
2026-09-30	$7.00	$6,899,631,094	6 / 6
2026-10-01	$7.02	$6,899,631,094	5 / 6
2026-10-02	$7.02	$6,899,631,094	5 / 6
2026-10-03	$6.99	$6,995,678,503	5 / 6
2026-10-04	$6.99	$6,899,631,094	5 / 6
2026-10-05	$6.99	$6,899,631,094	5 / 6
2026-10-06	$6.99	$6,899,631,094	5 / 6
2026-10-07	$6.99	$6,899,631,094	5 / 6
2026-10-08	$6.99	$6,899,631,094	5 / 6
2026-10-09	$6.99	$6,899,631,094	5 / 6
2026-10-10	$6.99	$6,899,631,094	5 / 6
2026-10-11	$6.99	$6,957,386,195	5 / 7
2026-10-12	$6.99	$6,957,386,195	5 / 6
2026-10-13	$6.99	$6,957,386,195	5 / 6
2026-10-14	$6.99	$6,957,386,195	5 / 6
2026-10-15	$6.99	$6,957,386,195	5 / 6

Revenue and EPS estimates track expectations. They are not delivered results or like-for-like proof of a required annual path.

Compare required revenue and earnings

Analyst view

Monthly observations

Buy / Strong BuyHoldSell / Strong Sell

Exact monthly counts

Monthly rating snapshots · fmp. Missing snapshots are not zero.
Date	Buy*	Hold	Sell*
2026-05-01	9	12	0
2026-06-01	9	12	1
2026-07-01	8	13	1
2026-08-01	7	14	1
2026-09-01	7	14	0
2026-10-01	7	14	0

*Buy includes Strong Buy; Sell includes Strong Sell. Monthly counts describe the analyst mix, not the firms behind each recent action.

Latest: 7 Buy / Strong Buy · 14 Hold · 0 Sell / Strong Sell

0 upgrades0 downgrades5 maintains

Recent actions · Sep 16–Oct 15 · 5 recorded

Price-target changes

30 days

○ Previous · ● Latest · common dollar scale

Piper SandlerOct 12 · prior Jul 21

$285.00 → $254.00-10.9%

UBSOct 9 · prior Jul 9

$222.00 → $205.00-7.7%

BNP ParibasOct 9

$222.00New observation · no comparable prior

BarclaysSep 28 · prior Aug 17

$215.00 → $208.00-3.3%

Evercore ISISep 21 · prior Sep 14

$219.00 → $216.00-1.4%

ScotiabankSep 17 · prior Aug 20

$222.00 → $221.00-0.5%

$0$156.75$313.50

0 raises · 5 cuts · 0 unchanged · 1 without a comparable prior

How this is measured

Sep 16, 2026–Oct 15, 2026. Each firm's latest positive target is paired only with its immediately prior positive target from the same provider, at most 180 days earlier. Unmatched observations have one dot; conflicting observations are not compared.

Outlook in Brief

The evidence, the remaining questions, and what comes next

What's improving

No recovery evidence is reported in the available driver assessments.

Still unresolved / key risks

Maintain strong cash from operations near $833 million quarterlyCash from operations: $1.196B
EPS guidance near $7.00 per share for 2026Diluted EPS: $1.49 per share
Real Estate FFO guidance at ~$13.18 per share in 2026Direct metric needs a verified mapping
PE ratio remains justified relative to peersValuation inputs unavailable

Next proof point

Nov 5, 2026

Look for updated results and guidance against the published targets, plus direct evidence for unresolved drivers.

Review earnings

Bottom line

4 of 4 published conditions remain under pressure or need verification. The next results need to address those conditions.

The dated weekly assessment and its assumptions are available in Read detailed Outlook.

Historical risk context

Observed price history; separate from operating scenarios

Price sensitivity

0.6%Typical daily move · historical

Downside history

-16.5%Maximum drawdown · trailing year

Read detailed Outlook Company context, assumptions & risks

Simon Property Group outlook in detail

The weekly editorial context below is a separate assessment from the dated monitor evidence above. Recovery observations do not automatically change the published thesis. Unverified outside influences are hypotheses, not measured driver evidence.

Updated Oct 10, 2026

What kind of bet this is

This investment represents a durable compounder with a focus on real estate. The current thesis state is intact, supported by consistent growth in funds from operations and dividend increases, despite some recent mixed results.

What's priced into Simon Property Group

The market appears to price SPG as cheap compared to its peers, with a slight expectations gap. However, there is a recognition of fragility due to weak execution quality, which may not fully reflect the potential risks in the current environment.

What the fundamentals likely do

Fundamentals are likely to show stable cash generation and liquidity, as management has emphasized these priorities. However, there is a risk of missing earnings expectations, given the company's recent history in a high-miss-rate industry.

What Simon Property Group hinges on

The thesis hinges on several factors, including the Fed's potential interest rate cuts and the performance of sector bellwethers like O, KIM, and REG. A reversal in guidance could negatively impact credibility, while continued positive trends in the sector could provide support.

Bottom line

Over the next 1 to 3 years, SPG's performance will depend on management's execution and broader economic conditions. Not investment advice.

Not investment advice. Scores describe historical and current data; they are not forecasts of future returns. Consult a licensed advisor before making investment decisions.

Expectations trend

Same fiscal period

FY2027 · fiscal year ending 2027-12-31 · fmp

FY2027 EPS$6.99

$7.05 → $6.99 · observed estimates

FY2027 revenue$6.96B

$6.88B → $6.96B · observed estimates

Exact estimates & source dates

FY2027 estimate observations · fmp
Snapshot	EPS	Revenue	EPS / revenue analysts
2026-07-24	$7.05	$6,881,712,188	6 / 7
2026-07-25	$7.05	$6,881,712,188	6 / 7
2026-07-26	$7.05	$6,906,039,938	6 / 7
2026-07-27	$7.05	$6,906,039,938	6 / 7
2026-07-28	$7.05	$6,906,039,938	6 / 7
2026-07-29	$6.74	$6,880,124,830	5 / 11
2026-07-30	$6.74	$6,880,124,830	5 / 11
2026-07-31	$6.74	$6,880,124,830	5 / 11
2026-08-01	$7.05	$6,906,039,938	7 / 8
2026-08-02	$6.74	$6,880,124,830	5 / 11
2026-08-03	$7.05	$6,906,039,938	7 / 8
2026-08-04	$6.74	$6,880,124,830	5 / 11
2026-08-05	$7.05	$6,906,039,938	7 / 8
2026-08-06	$7.05	$6,906,039,938	7 / 8
2026-08-08	$6.74	$6,880,124,830	5 / 11
2026-08-09	$6.74	$6,880,124,830	5 / 11
2026-08-10	$6.74	$6,880,124,830	5 / 11
2026-08-12	$6.71	$6,855,611,900	5 / 9
2026-08-13	$7.05	$6,906,039,938	7 / 8
2026-08-14	$7.05	$6,906,039,938	7 / 8
2026-08-15	$7.05	$6,906,039,938	7 / 8
2026-08-16	$7.05	$6,906,039,938	7 / 7
2026-08-17	$7.05	$6,906,039,938	7 / 7
2026-08-18	$7.05	$6,906,039,938	7 / 8
2026-08-19	$7.05	$6,906,039,938	7 / 8
2026-08-20	$6.94	$6,814,561,508	7 / 8
2026-08-21	$6.94	$6,820,872,100	7 / 8
2026-08-22	$6.94	$6,820,872,100	7 / 8
2026-08-23	$6.94	$6,820,872,100	7 / 8
2026-08-24	$6.94	$6,820,872,100	7 / 8
2026-08-25	$6.94	$6,820,872,100	7 / 8
2026-08-26	$6.94	$6,820,872,100	7 / 8
2026-08-27	$6.94	$6,820,872,100	7 / 8
2026-08-28	$6.94	$6,883,652,464	7 / 8
2026-08-29	$6.87	$6,890,497,100	7 / 7
2026-08-30	$6.87	$6,893,329,282	6 / 7
2026-08-31	$6.87	$6,893,329,282	6 / 7
2026-09-01	$6.87	$6,893,329,282	6 / 7
2026-09-02	$6.87	$6,893,329,282	6 / 7
2026-09-03	$6.87	$6,893,289,473	6 / 7
2026-09-04	$6.94	$6,893,289,476	6 / 7
2026-09-05	$6.94	$6,893,289,476	6 / 7
2026-09-06	$6.94	$6,893,289,476	6 / 7
2026-09-07	$6.94	$6,893,289,476	6 / 7
2026-09-08	$6.94	$6,893,289,476	6 / 7
2026-09-09	$6.94	$6,893,289,476	6 / 7
2026-09-10	$6.94	$6,893,289,476	6 / 7
2026-09-11	$6.94	$6,893,289,476	6 / 7
2026-09-12	$6.94	$6,893,289,476	6 / 6
2026-09-13	$6.94	$6,893,289,476	6 / 6
2026-09-14	$6.94	$6,893,289,476	5 / 6
2026-09-15	$7.11	$6,893,289,476	5 / 6
2026-09-16	$7.11	$6,893,289,476	6 / 6
2026-09-17	$7.11	$6,893,289,476	6 / 6
2026-09-18	$6.95	$6,878,072,343	6 / 6
2026-09-19	$7.00	$6,899,631,094	6 / 6
2026-09-20	$7.00	$6,899,631,094	6 / 6
2026-09-21	$7.00	$6,899,631,094	6 / 6
2026-09-22	$7.00	$6,899,631,094	6 / 6
2026-09-23	$7.00	$6,899,631,094	6 / 6
2026-09-24	$7.00	$6,899,631,094	6 / 6
2026-09-25	$7.00	$6,899,631,094	6 / 6
2026-09-26	$7.00	$6,899,631,094	6 / 6
2026-09-27	$7.00	$6,899,631,094	6 / 6
2026-09-28	$7.00	$6,899,631,094	6 / 6
2026-09-29	$7.00	$6,899,631,094	6 / 6
2026-09-30	$7.00	$6,899,631,094	6 / 6
2026-10-01	$7.02	$6,899,631,094	5 / 6
2026-10-02	$7.02	$6,899,631,094	5 / 6
2026-10-03	$6.99	$6,995,678,503	5 / 6
2026-10-04	$6.99	$6,899,631,094	5 / 6
2026-10-05	$6.99	$6,899,631,094	5 / 6
2026-10-06	$6.99	$6,899,631,094	5 / 6
2026-10-07	$6.99	$6,899,631,094	5 / 6
2026-10-08	$6.99	$6,899,631,094	5 / 6
2026-10-09	$6.99	$6,899,631,094	5 / 6
2026-10-10	$6.99	$6,899,631,094	5 / 6
2026-10-11	$6.99	$6,957,386,195	5 / 7
2026-10-12	$6.99	$6,957,386,195	5 / 6
2026-10-13	$6.99	$6,957,386,195	5 / 6
2026-10-14	$6.99	$6,957,386,195	5 / 6
2026-10-15	$6.99	$6,957,386,195	5 / 6

Revenue and EPS estimates track expectations. They are not delivered results or like-for-like proof of a required annual path.

Compare required revenue and earnings