Space Exploration Technologies Corp. Class A Common Stock (SPCX)

NASDAQIndustrialsAerospace & DefenseSnapshot 2026-10-16

$146.03-1.74%

Close 2026-10-16 · 1-day change

Read the published Living FV report summary

Investment OutlookAs of Oct 15, 2026

What could strengthen or challenge Space Exploration Technologies Corp. Class A Common Stock’s outlook?

The long-term thesis, the evidence coming in, and the environment around it. Thesis dated Jul 8, 2026.

Higher potential upsideImproving expectations

Next-FY EPS estimate change · 30 days

+19.0% · beyond scale

+10% or more+5%0%−5%−10% or less

1.63 → 1.94 EPS · FY ending Dec 31, 2027 · 18 analysts

Higher risk of downsideWeakening expectations

One observable signal. This measures changing earnings expectations, not the probability of a gain or loss.

How this is measured

Change in the same fiscal period’s mean EPS estimate from Sep 15, 2026 to Oct 15, 2026: (new ÷ prior − 1). Contributor count changed from 15 to 18; this is not the number of analysts revising. Source: FMP consensus snapshots. The ±10% axis is a display range.

Living FV™

Living Fair Value by QuarterlyIQ

A valuation that evolves as the business changes.

A published Living FV snapshot is not available yet. The valuation workflow remains discoverable; a market target cannot supply the missing evidence.

View Living FV report and workflow

What the Thesis Depends On

4 key conditions need to be met for the investment thesis to play out.

Key Factor	Why It Matters	Current Status	Break Condition	Latest Evidence
Raise capital through senior unsecured notes issuance	It raised $25 billion in senior notes in June 2026 to fund expansion.	Intact	Capital access impaired or debt servicing issues arise post-issuance	Direct metric needs a verified mapping The published measure or accounting basis is not supported by an exact source binding. Source date unavailableLast status assessment Oct 15, 2026Compare required operating outcomes Compare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement. Management context Stated in 3 filings in June 2026. SpaceX completed a $25 billion inaugural bond issuance of senior unsecured notes with maturities from 2031 to 2056. This capital raise strengthens the balance sheet and supports long-term growth initiatives, consistent with management's stated capital allocation priorities. Delivery assessment Oct 15, 2026
Complete merger with Cursor and integrate as subsidiary	SpaceX aims to complete its merger with Cursor, a key growth step.	Intact	Merger not completed or integration fails by FY26	Merger completed 2026-08-14 vs FY26 target SEC filing confirms acquisition completed on 2026-08-14; Cursor is now a wholly owned subsidiary. Context reviewed through Oct 15, 2026Last status assessment Oct 15, 2026Compare required operating outcomes Compare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement. Management context Newly stated in 2026-Q2. SpaceX announced a $60 billion agreement to acquire Cursor to accelerate AI enterprise offerings. The transaction is expected to close in Q3 2026. This is a strategic growth initiative recently disclosed with no prior quarters stating it. Delivery assessment Oct 15, 2026
EPS improves from -$0.42 in 2026 to positive $0.20 in 2027	A primary condition in Space Exploration Technologies Corp. Class A Common Stock's published investment case. The stated target is EPS improves to positive $0.20 in 2027.	Improving	EPS remains negative or worsens beyond -$0.42 in 2027	Diluted EPS: $-0.09 per share FY2026-Q2; GAAP. Published target: EPS improves to positive $0.20 in 2027. Target period is not explicitly aligned with this observation. Source published Aug 4, 2026-0.09 USD/share · source valueSource reportLast status assessment Oct 15, 2026 Measurement source consolidated · GAAP FY2026-Q2 · Period ending Jun 30, 2026 Source: company_financial_results. Reference: 7f2ada4c-c5a3-467a-901a-86efcc2b832e. Source status: eligible. Compare required operating outcomes Compare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement.
Revenue growth from $36.8B in 2026 to $68.3B in 2027	A primary condition in Space Exploration Technologies Corp. Class A Common Stock's published investment case. The stated target is Revenue grows from $36.8B in 2026 to $68.3B in 2027.	Improving	Revenue fails to grow or declines below $36B in 2027	Revenue: $7.814B FY2026-Q2; GAAP. Published target: Revenue grows from $36.8B in 2026 to $68.3B in 2027. Target period is not explicitly aligned with this observation. Source published Aug 4, 20267,814,000,000 USD · source valueSource reportLast status assessment Oct 15, 2026 Measurement source consolidated · GAAP FY2026-Q2 · Period ending Jun 30, 2026 Source: company_financial_results. Reference: 7f2ada4c-c5a3-467a-901a-86efcc2b832e. Source status: eligible. Compare required operating outcomes Compare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement.

Stored thesis · Jul 8, 2026. Latest Evidence uses source-matched measurements where available, alongside the last thesis-monitor assessment. Source periods and assessment dates are shown separately. A new measurement does not automatically change the published status or verify an older target.

Incoming Evidence

Compare these dated observations with the operating requirements above

Expectations trend

Same fiscal period

FY2027 · fiscal year ending 2027-12-31 · fmp

FY2027 EPS$1.94

$0.54 → $1.94 · observed estimates

FY2027 revenue$109.62B

$74.20B → $109.62B · observed estimates

Exact estimates & source dates

One fiscal period and provider throughout. At least five contributors are required for each plotted metric; missing coverage stays a gap. Axes show the observed range. Counts measure coverage, not revisions.

FY2027 estimate observations · fmp
Snapshot	EPS	Revenue	EPS / revenue analysts
2026-07-24	$0.54	$74,200,000,000	16 / 17
2026-07-25	$0.65	$73,151,557,830	19 / 19
2026-07-26	$0.65	$73,151,557,830	19 / 19
2026-07-27	$0.65	$73,151,557,830	19 / 19
2026-07-28	$0.54	$74,200,000,000	16 / 17
2026-07-29	$0.65	$73,151,542,570	19 / 19
2026-07-30	$0.65	$73,151,542,570	19 / 19
2026-07-31	$0.63	$74,200,000,000	15 / 17
2026-08-01	$0.63	$74,200,000,000	15 / 17
2026-08-02	$0.65	$73,151,542,570	19 / 19
2026-08-03	$0.65	$73,151,542,570	19 / 19
2026-08-04	$0.63	$74,200,000,000	15 / 17
2026-08-05	$0.60	$73,151,558,360	20 / 19
2026-08-06	$0.63	$74,200,000,000	15 / 17
2026-08-08	$1.25	$90,932,230,440	19 / 17
2026-08-09	$0.66	$74,860,000,000	16 / 16
2026-08-10	$1.25	$90,932,230,440	19 / 17
2026-08-12	$1.32	$95,488,521,940	18 / 17
2026-08-13	$1.32	$95,488,521,940	18 / 17
2026-08-14	$0.66	$74,860,000,000	16 / 16
2026-08-15	$0.66	$74,860,000,000	16 / 16
2026-08-16	$0.66	$74,860,000,000	15 / 16
2026-08-17	$0.66	$74,860,000,000	15 / 16
2026-08-18	$0.66	$74,860,000,000	15 / 16
2026-08-19	$0.66	$74,860,000,000	15 / 16
2026-08-20	$1.53	$101,970,000,000	14 / 15
2026-08-21	$1.62	$103,480,000,000	14 / 15
2026-08-22	$1.62	$103,480,000,000	14 / 15
2026-08-23	$1.62	$103,480,000,000	14 / 15
2026-08-24	$1.62	$103,480,000,000	14 / 15
2026-08-25	$1.62	$103,480,000,000	14 / 15
2026-08-26	$1.62	$103,480,000,000	14 / 15
2026-08-27	$1.62	$103,480,000,000	14 / 15
2026-08-28	$1.62	$103,480,000,000	14 / 15
2026-08-29	$1.62	$103,480,000,000	14 / 15
2026-08-30	$1.62	$103,480,000,000	14 / 15
2026-08-31	$1.62	$103,480,000,000	14 / 15
2026-09-01	$1.62	$103,480,000,000	14 / 15
2026-09-02	$1.62	$103,480,000,000	14 / 15
2026-09-03	$1.62	$103,480,000,000	14 / 15
2026-09-04	$1.63	$103,480,000,000	14 / 15
2026-09-05	$1.63	$104,090,000,000	14 / 15
2026-09-06	$1.63	$104,090,000,000	14 / 15
2026-09-07	$1.63	$104,090,000,000	14 / 15
2026-09-08	$1.63	$104,090,000,000	15 / 16
2026-09-09	$1.63	$104,090,000,000	16 / 16
2026-09-10	$1.63	$104,090,000,000	16 / 16
2026-09-11	$1.63	$104,090,000,000	15 / 16
2026-09-12	$1.63	$104,090,000,000	15 / 16
2026-09-13	$1.63	$104,090,000,000	15 / 16
2026-09-14	$1.63	$104,090,000,000	15 / 16
2026-09-15	$1.63	$104,090,000,000	15 / 16
2026-09-16	$1.63	$104,090,000,000	15 / 16
2026-09-17	$1.79	$104,090,000,000	15 / 16
2026-09-18	$1.79	$104,090,000,000	15 / 16
2026-09-19	$1.79	$104,090,000,000	15 / 16
2026-09-20	$1.63	$105,000,000,000	15 / 16
2026-09-21	$1.63	$105,000,000,000	15 / 16
2026-09-22	$1.63	$105,000,000,000	15 / 16
2026-09-23	$1.63	$105,000,000,000	15 / 16
2026-09-24	$1.63	$105,000,000,000	15 / 16
2026-09-25	$1.63	$105,000,000,000	15 / 16
2026-09-26	$1.63	$105,000,000,000	15 / 16
2026-09-27	$1.63	$105,000,000,000	15 / 16
2026-09-28	$1.63	$105,000,000,000	15 / 16
2026-09-29	$1.63	$105,000,000,000	15 / 16
2026-09-30	$1.63	$105,000,000,000	15 / 16
2026-10-01	$1.78	$105,000,000,000	15 / 17
2026-10-02	$1.78	$107,360,000,000	16 / 18
2026-10-03	$1.78	$107,360,000,000	16 / 18
2026-10-04	$1.78	$107,360,000,000	15 / 18
2026-10-05	$1.78	$107,360,000,000	15 / 18
2026-10-06	$1.78	$107,360,000,000	15 / 18
2026-10-07	$1.96	$109,840,000,000	15 / 18
2026-10-08	$1.96	$109,840,000,000	16 / 18
2026-10-09	$1.96	$109,840,000,000	16 / 19
2026-10-10	$1.96	$109,840,000,000	16 / 19
2026-10-11	$1.96	$109,840,000,000	17 / 19
2026-10-12	$1.96	$109,840,000,000	17 / 19
2026-10-13	$1.96	$109,840,000,000	18 / 20
2026-10-14	$1.94	$109,620,000,000	18 / 20
2026-10-15	$1.94	$109,620,000,000	18 / 20

Revenue and EPS estimates track expectations. They are not delivered results or like-for-like proof of a required annual path.

Compare required revenue and earnings

Analyst view

Monthly observations

Buy / Strong BuyHoldSell / Strong Sell

Exact monthly counts

Monthly rating snapshots · fmp. Missing snapshots are not zero.
Date	Buy*	Hold	Sell*
2026-06-01	7	3	1
2026-07-01	27	6	2
2026-08-01	28	6	2
2026-09-01	30	5	3
2026-10-01	31	5	3

*Buy includes Strong Buy; Sell includes Strong Sell. Monthly counts describe the analyst mix, not the firms behind each recent action.

Latest: 31 Buy / Strong Buy · 5 Hold · 3 Sell / Strong Sell

0 upgrades0 downgrades4 maintains

Recent actions · Sep 16–Oct 15 · 4 recorded

Price-target changes

30 days

○ Previous · ● Latest · common dollar scale

Pivotal ResearchOct 12 · prior Sep 8

$220.00 → $230.00+4.5%

BarclaysOct 8

$254.00New observation · no comparable prior

SusquehannaOct 7 · prior Jun 23

$170.00 → $173.00+1.8%

CLSASep 28

$250.00New observation · no comparable prior

$0$139.70$279.40

2 raises · 0 cuts · 0 unchanged · 2 without a comparable prior

How this is measured

Sep 16, 2026–Oct 15, 2026. Each firm's latest positive target is paired only with its immediately prior positive target from the same provider, at most 180 days earlier. Unmatched observations have one dot; conflicting observations are not compared.

Outlook in Brief

The evidence, the remaining questions, and what comes next

What's improving

No recovery evidence is reported in the available driver assessments.

Still unresolved / key risks

Raise capital through senior unsecured notes issuanceDirect metric needs a verified mapping
EPS improves from -$0.42 in 2026 to positive $0.20 in 2027Diluted EPS: $-0.09 per share
Revenue growth from $36.8B in 2026 to $68.3B in 2027Revenue: $7.814B

Next proof point

Nov 3, 2026

Look for updated results and guidance against the published targets, plus direct evidence for unresolved drivers.

Review earnings

Bottom line

3 of 4 published conditions remain under pressure or need verification. The next results need to address those conditions.

The dated weekly assessment and its assumptions are available in Read detailed Outlook.

Historical risk context

Observed price history; separate from operating scenarios

Price sensitivity

2.6%Typical daily move · historical

Downside history

-46.4%Maximum drawdown · trailing year

Read detailed Outlook Company context, assumptions & risks

Space Exploration Technologies Corp. Class A Common Stock outlook in detail

The weekly editorial context below is a separate assessment from the dated monitor evidence above. Recovery observations do not automatically change the published thesis. Unverified outside influences are hypotheses, not measured driver evidence.

Updated Oct 10, 2026

What kind of bet this is

This investment represents a cyclical play in the industrial sector, which is currently facing headwinds. The long-term thesis is still forming, as recent financial performance does not provide enough clarity on future growth potential.

What's priced into Space Exploration Technologies Corp. Class A Common Stock

The current valuation reflects a low fragility tier, indicating that the market does not expect significant instability. However, there is a high model confidence, suggesting that the fundamentals are being closely monitored.

What the fundamentals likely do

Management is focused on driving growth in Space, Connectivity, and AI segments, with recent revenue growth showing strong results. However, the elevated risk label indicates potential challenges ahead, especially if economic conditions worsen.

What Space Exploration Technologies Corp. Class A Common Stock hinges on

The thesis hinges on the performance of sector bellwethers like GE, RTX, and BA, as their earnings can influence the entire industrial sector. Additionally, the trajectory of the jobs report will be crucial, as weakening employment data could negatively impact cyclical names like SPCX.