Solstice Advanced Materials (SOLS)

NASDAQMaterialsChemicals - SpecialtySnapshot 2026-10-15

$59.25-1.12%

Close 2026-10-16 · 1-day change

Read the published Living FV report summary

Investment OutlookAs of Oct 15, 2026

What could strengthen or challenge Solstice Advanced Materials’s outlook?

The long-term thesis, the evidence coming in, and the environment around it. Thesis dated Jul 8, 2026.

Higher potential upsideImproving expectations

Next-FY EPS estimate change · 30 days

+1.7%

+10% or more+5%0%−5%−10% or less

3.36 → 3.41 EPS · FY ending Dec 31, 2027 · 6 analysts

Higher risk of downsideWeakening expectations

One observable signal. This measures changing earnings expectations, not the probability of a gain or loss.

How this is measured

Change in the same fiscal period’s mean EPS estimate from Sep 15, 2026 to Oct 15, 2026: (new ÷ prior − 1). Contributor count changed from 5 to 6; this is not the number of analysts revising. Source: FMP consensus snapshots. The ±10% axis is a display range.

Living FV™

Living Fair Value by QuarterlyIQ

A valuation that evolves as the business changes.

A published Living FV snapshot is not available yet. The valuation workflow remains discoverable; a market target cannot supply the missing evidence.

View Living FV report and workflow

What the Thesis Depends On

4 key conditions need to be met for the investment thesis to play out.

Key Factor	Why It Matters	Current Status	Break Condition	Latest Evidence
Complete Element Solutions acquisition and realize $180M synergies	A primary condition in Solstice Advanced Materials's published investment case. The stated target is Achieve >$180 million net synergies by year three post-close.	Under Pressure	Acquisition fails to close or synergies fall below $100 million by year three	Direct metric needs a verified mapping The published measure or accounting basis is not supported by an exact source binding. Source date unavailableLast status assessment Oct 15, 2026Compare required operating outcomes Compare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement. Management context Stated in 3 disclosures including 2026-Q1 and 2026-Q2 press releases and investor update. Revenue grew from $991M in 2026-Q1 to $1,148M in 2026-Q2 (+16%), and full-year 2026 net sales guidance was raised to $4,125-$4,185M. The acquisition is expected to accelerate growth aligned with AI, data centers, nuclear energy, and semiconductor markets. However, the merger agreement was terminated in August 2026, indicating a shift away from this priority. Delivery assessment Oct 15, 2026
Maintain dividends and strong operating cash flow	A supporting condition in Solstice Advanced Materials's published investment case. The stated target is Quarterly dividend >= $0.075 per share and operating cash flow >= $190 million.	Intact	Dividend cut or operating cash flow falls below $180 million next year	Direct metric needs a verified mapping The published measure or accounting basis is not supported by an exact source binding. Source date unavailableLast status assessment Oct 15, 2026Compare required operating outcomes Compare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement. Management context Stated in 4 disclosures including 2025-Q4, 2026-Q1, 2026-Q2, and August 2026. The company declared consistent quarterly dividends of $0.075 per share and authorized a $500 million share repurchase program. Operating cash flow was $199M in 2026-Q1 and $262M in 2026-Q2 (six months total $461M), supporting disciplined capital allocation. Management is delivering on capital return commitments with stable dividends and new buyback authorization. Delivery assessment Oct 15, 2026
Manage margin pressure from refrigerants product transition	A supporting condition in Solstice Advanced Materials's published investment case. The stated target is Maintain adjusted EBITDA margin >= 25% over next 4 quarters.	Intact	Adjusted EBITDA margin falls below 23% next year	Direct metric needs a verified mapping The published measure or accounting basis is not supported by an exact source binding. Source date unavailableLast status assessment Oct 15, 2026Compare required operating outcomes Compare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement. Management context Stated in 3 quarters including 2025-Q4, 2026-Q1, and 2026-Q2. Adjusted EBITDA margin declined by 218 bps in 2026-Q2 and 277 bps in 2026-Q1 compared to prior year quarters, primarily due to the near-term margin impact of transitioning to low global warming potential refrigerants and higher R&D spend. Management consistently highlights this transition as a strategic priority with expected longer-term benefits, indicating persistent focus but near-term margin pressure. Delivery assessment Oct 15, 2026
Grow revenue in Nuclear and Electronic Materials	A primary condition in Solstice Advanced Materials's published investment case. The stated target is >=10% YoY revenue growth in Nuclear and Electronics.	Intact	YoY revenue growth in Nuclear and Electronics falls below 5% next year	Direct metric needs a verified mapping The published measure or accounting basis is not supported by an exact source binding. Source date unavailableLast status assessment Oct 15, 2026Compare required operating outcomes Compare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement. Management context Stated in 3 quarters including 2025-Q4, 2026-Q1, and 2026-Q2. Nuclear revenues grew 27% and Electronic Materials sales grew 15% year-over-year in 2026-Q2. Net sales in these high-growth platforms contributed to overall revenue growth from $897M in 2025-Q1 to $1,148M in 2026-Q2. Management consistently emphasizes investment in these platforms, and financials show delivering growth aligned with this priority. Delivery assessment Oct 15, 2026

Stored thesis · Jul 8, 2026. Latest Evidence uses source-matched measurements where available, alongside the last thesis-monitor assessment. Source periods and assessment dates are shown separately. A new measurement does not automatically change the published status or verify an older target.

Incoming Evidence

Compare these dated observations with the operating requirements above

Expectations trend

Same fiscal period

FY2027 · fiscal year ending 2027-12-31 · fmp

FY2027 EPS$3.41

$3.21 → $3.41 · observed estimates

FY2027 revenue$4.41B

$4.31B → $4.41B · observed estimates

Exact estimates & source dates

One fiscal period and provider throughout. At least five contributors are required for each plotted metric; missing coverage stays a gap. Axes show the observed range. Counts measure coverage, not revisions.

FY2027 estimate observations · fmp
Snapshot	EPS	Revenue	EPS / revenue analysts
2026-07-24	$3.21	$4,313,473,230	7 / 7
2026-07-25	$3.21	$4,313,473,230	7 / 7
2026-07-26	Unavailable	$4,320,235,433	4 / 5
2026-07-27	$3.21	$4,313,473,230	7 / 7
2026-07-28	Unavailable	$4,320,235,433	4 / 5
2026-07-29	Unavailable	$4,320,235,433	4 / 5
2026-07-30	Unavailable	$4,320,235,433	4 / 5
2026-07-31	Unavailable	$4,352,575,334	4 / 5
2026-08-01	Unavailable	$4,352,575,334	4 / 5
2026-08-02	$3.36	$4,414,970,280	7 / 7
2026-08-03	$3.36	$4,414,970,280	7 / 7
2026-08-04	$3.36	$4,414,970,280	7 / 7
2026-08-05	Unavailable	$4,417,631,989	4 / 5
2026-08-06	Unavailable	$4,417,631,989	4 / 5
2026-08-08	Unavailable	$4,417,631,989	4 / 5
2026-08-09	$3.36	$4,414,970,280	7 / 7
2026-08-10	$3.36	$4,414,970,280	7 / 7
2026-08-12	Unavailable	$4,417,631,989	4 / 5
2026-08-13	$3.36	$4,414,970,280	7 / 7
2026-08-14	Unavailable	$4,417,631,989	4 / 5
2026-08-15	Unavailable	$4,417,631,989	4 / 5
2026-08-16	Unavailable	$4,417,631,989	4 / 5
2026-08-17	Unavailable	$4,417,631,989	4 / 5
2026-08-18	Unavailable	$4,417,631,989	4 / 5
2026-08-19	Unavailable	$4,417,631,989	4 / 5
2026-08-20	Unavailable	$4,414,631,989	4 / 5
2026-08-21	Unavailable	$4,414,631,989	4 / 5
2026-08-22	Unavailable	$4,414,631,989	4 / 5
2026-08-23	Unavailable	$4,414,631,989	4 / 5
2026-08-24	Unavailable	$4,414,631,989	4 / 5
2026-08-25	Unavailable	$4,414,631,989	4 / 5
2026-08-26	Unavailable	$4,414,631,989	4 / 5
2026-08-27	Unavailable	$4,414,631,989	4 / 5
2026-08-28	Unavailable	$4,414,631,989	4 / 5
2026-08-29	Unavailable	$4,414,702,888	4 / 5
2026-08-30	Unavailable	$4,414,702,888	4 / 5
2026-08-31	Unavailable	$4,414,702,888	4 / 5
2026-09-01	Unavailable	$4,414,702,888	4 / 5
2026-09-02	Unavailable	$4,414,702,888	4 / 5
2026-09-03	Unavailable	$4,414,702,888	4 / 5
2026-09-04	Unavailable	$4,408,459,619	4 / 5
2026-09-05	$3.37	$4,408,459,619	5 / 5
2026-09-06	$3.37	$4,408,459,619	5 / 6
2026-09-07	$3.37	$4,408,459,619	5 / 6
2026-09-08	$3.37	$4,408,459,619	5 / 6
2026-09-09	$3.37	$4,408,459,619	5 / 6
2026-09-10	$3.37	$4,408,459,619	5 / 6
2026-09-11	$3.37	$4,408,459,619	5 / 6
2026-09-12	$3.36	$4,408,173,904	5 / 6
2026-09-13	$3.36	$4,408,173,904	5 / 6
2026-09-14	$3.36	$4,408,173,904	5 / 6
2026-09-15	$3.36	$4,408,173,904	5 / 6
2026-09-16	$3.36	$4,408,173,904	5 / 6
2026-09-17	$3.36	$4,408,173,904	5 / 6
2026-09-18	$3.36	$4,408,173,904	5 / 6
2026-09-19	$3.36	$4,408,173,904	5 / 6
2026-09-20	$3.36	$4,408,173,904	5 / 6
2026-09-21	$3.36	$4,408,173,904	5 / 6
2026-09-22	$3.36	$4,408,173,904	5 / 6
2026-09-23	$3.36	$4,408,173,904	5 / 6
2026-09-24	$3.36	$4,408,173,904	5 / 6
2026-09-25	$3.36	$4,408,173,904	5 / 6
2026-09-26	$3.36	$4,408,173,904	5 / 6
2026-09-27	$3.36	$4,408,173,904	5 / 6
2026-09-28	$3.36	$4,408,173,904	5 / 6
2026-09-29	$3.36	$4,408,173,904	5 / 6
2026-09-30	$3.36	$4,408,173,904	5 / 6
2026-10-01	$3.34	$4,404,488,190	5 / 6
2026-10-02	$3.34	$4,404,488,190	5 / 6
2026-10-03	$3.34	$4,404,488,190	5 / 6
2026-10-04	$3.34	$4,404,488,190	5 / 6
2026-10-05	$3.34	$4,404,488,190	5 / 6
2026-10-06	$3.36	$4,400,978,214	5 / 6
2026-10-07	$3.36	$4,400,978,214	5 / 6
2026-10-08	$3.36	$4,409,551,650	5 / 6
2026-10-09	$3.36	$4,409,551,650	5 / 7
2026-10-10	$3.36	$4,409,551,650	5 / 7
2026-10-11	$3.36	$4,409,551,650	6 / 7
2026-10-12	$3.36	$4,409,551,650	6 / 7
2026-10-13	$3.41	$4,409,551,650	6 / 7
2026-10-14	$3.41	$4,409,551,650	6 / 7
2026-10-15	$3.41	$4,409,551,650	6 / 7

Revenue and EPS estimates track expectations. They are not delivered results or like-for-like proof of a required annual path.

Compare required revenue and earnings

Analyst view

Monthly observations

Buy / Strong BuyHoldSell / Strong Sell

Exact monthly counts

Monthly rating snapshots · fmp. Missing snapshots are not zero.
Date	Buy*	Hold	Sell*
2026-05-01	3	4	1
2026-06-01	2	5	0
2026-07-01	6	5	0
2026-08-01	6	1	0
2026-09-01	8	1	0
2026-10-01	9	1	0

*Buy includes Strong Buy; Sell includes Strong Sell. Monthly counts describe the analyst mix, not the firms behind each recent action.

Latest: 9 Buy / Strong Buy · 1 Hold · 0 Sell / Strong Sell

0 upgrades0 downgrades3 maintains

Recent actions · Sep 16–Oct 15 · 3 recorded

Price-target changes

30 days

○ Previous · ● Latest · common dollar scale

BarclaysOct 12

$73.00New observation · no comparable prior

Seaport GlobalOct 7

$80.00New observation · no comparable prior

UBSOct 5 · prior Jul 31

$80.00 → $76.00-5.0%

$0$44.00$88.00

0 raises · 1 cuts · 0 unchanged · 2 without a comparable prior

How this is measured

Sep 16, 2026–Oct 15, 2026. Each firm's latest positive target is paired only with its immediately prior positive target from the same provider, at most 180 days earlier. Unmatched observations have one dot; conflicting observations are not compared.

Outlook in Brief

The evidence, the remaining questions, and what comes next

What's improving

No recovery evidence is reported in the available driver assessments.

Still unresolved / key risks

Complete Element Solutions acquisition and realize $180M synergiesPublished status: Under Pressure
Maintain dividends and strong operating cash flowDirect metric needs a verified mapping
Manage margin pressure from refrigerants product transitionDirect metric needs a verified mapping
Grow revenue in Nuclear and Electronic MaterialsDirect metric needs a verified mapping

Next proof point

Nov 4, 2026

Look for updated results and guidance against the published targets, plus direct evidence for unresolved drivers.

Review earnings

Bottom line

4 of 4 published conditions remain under pressure or need verification. The next results need to address those conditions.

The dated weekly assessment and its assumptions are available in Read detailed Outlook.

Historical risk context

Observed price history; separate from operating scenarios

Price sensitivity

1.6%Typical daily move · historical

Downside history

-37.5%Maximum drawdown · trailing year

Read detailed Outlook Company context, assumptions & risks

Solstice Advanced Materials outlook in detail

The weekly editorial context below is a separate assessment from the dated monitor evidence above. Recovery observations do not automatically change the published thesis. Unverified outside influences are hypotheses, not measured driver evidence.

Updated Oct 10, 2026

What kind of bet this is

This investment represents a turnaround story with a focus on growth through acquisitions and high-growth platforms. The current thesis state is intact, but recent volatility in management and performance adds uncertainty.

What's priced into Solstice Advanced Materials

The market seems to have priced in a stretched valuation compared to peers, indicating that expectations are moderately high. There is a low fragility tier, suggesting that the stock is not overly sensitive to negative news at this time.

What the fundamentals likely do

Fundamentals may remain stable in the near term, supported by disciplined capital allocation and growth in high-demand sectors like Nuclear and Electronics. However, there is a moderate risk of missing earnings expectations, as recent performance has shown a downward trend in surprises.

What Solstice Advanced Materials hinges on

The thesis hinges on management's ability to execute on growth strategies, particularly in high-growth platforms, and the overall health of the Materials sector. Key scenarios include the impact of inflation on sector performance and the ability of major peers to continue delivering strong results.