Sable Offshore Corp. (SOC)

NYSEEnergyOil & Gas DrillingSnapshot 2026-10-23

$3.26+7.24%

Close 2026-10-23 · 1-day change

Investment OutlookAs of Oct 24, 2026

What could strengthen or challenge Sable Offshore Corp.’s outlook?

The long-term thesis, the evidence coming in, and the environment around it. Thesis dated Jul 8, 2026.

Higher potential upsideImproving expectations

Next-FY EPS estimate change · 30 days

Comparable estimates unavailable

+10% or more+5%0%−5%−10% or less

A matching fiscal period and sufficient coverage are required.

Higher risk of downsideWeakening expectations

One observable signal. This measures changing earnings expectations, not the probability of a gain or loss.

How this is measured

The calculation requires same-period, same-provider snapshots, positive EPS, at least five analysts and a baseline within three days of the requested lookback.

Measure / period	Management expectations	Analyst expectations
Quarter ending 2026-12-30
Revenue	—	210.97M
EPS	—	0.201
Annual ending 2026-12-31
Revenue	—	507.02M
EPS	—	-1.586
Annual ending 2027-12-31
Revenue	—	907.58M
EPS	—	1.145

Management figures unavailable.

What the Thesis Depends On

Three published thesis conditions, with dated milestones shown separately.

Key Factor	Why It Matters	Current Status	Break Condition	Latest Evidence
Capital expenditure near $180 million by 2026 year-end	Capital spending is set near $180 million this year.	Broken	capex exceeds $200 million or falls below $150 million in 2026	Capital expenditures: $31.509M FY2026-Q2; GAAP. Published target: ~$180 million. Target period ends 2026-12-31; this observation covers 2026-Q2. Source published Aug 10, 202631,509,000 USD · source valueSource reportLast status assessment Oct 24, 2026 Measurement source consolidated · GAAP FY2026-Q2 · Period ending Jun 30, 2026 Source: stock_quarterly_financials_fmp. Reference: 2026-Q2. Source status: unverified. Compare required operating outcomes Compare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement. Management context Stated in 3 of last 3 quarters. Capital expenditures were expected at $180 million for April to December 2026 in Q1, with a 41% reduction in 2H 2026 midpoint capex to $85 million announced in Q2. The trajectory shows active management of capex to optimize cash flow and support operations. Delivery assessment Oct 24, 2026
Commence first sales at 50,000 barrels/day by 2026-04-01	A primary condition in Sable Offshore Corp.'s published investment case. The stated target is >=50,000 barrels per day.	Intact	sales volume below 50,000 barrels/day by 2026-04-01	Direct metric needs a verified mapping The published measure or accounting basis is not supported by an exact source binding. Source date unavailableLast status assessment Oct 24, 2026Compare required operating outcomes Compare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement. Management context Stated in 2 of last 2 quarters. Management resumed oil sales from the Santa Ynez Unit in Q1 2026 per the Defense Production Act order and restarted production from Platform Heritage in early April 2026. The trajectory shows delivery on commencing first sales by April 2026. Delivery assessment Oct 24, 2026
Platform Hondo online at >10,000 barrels/day by 2026-Q2	Sable Offshore plans to start Platform Hondo by mid-2026.	Intact	daily production falls below 10,000 barrels by 2026-Q2	Direct metric needs a verified mapping The published measure or accounting basis is not supported by an exact source binding. Source date unavailableLast status assessment Oct 24, 2026Compare required operating outcomes Compare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement. Management context Stated in 3 of last 3 quarters. Initial guidance in 2026-Q1 expected Platform Hondo online by end of Q2 2026; by 2026-Q3 updates, commissioning was complete with restart expected in Q4 2026. The trajectory shows some delay but active progress toward bringing Platform Hondo online. Delivery assessment Oct 24, 2026

Stored thesis · Jul 8, 2026. Latest Evidence uses source-matched measurements where available, alongside the last thesis-monitor assessment. Source periods and assessment dates are shown separately. A new measurement does not automatically change the published status or verify an older target.

Incoming Evidence

Compare these dated observations with the operating requirements above

Expectations trend

Same fiscal period

FY2027 · fiscal year ending 2027-12-31 · fmp

FY2027 EPS: comparable history unavailable.

FY2027 revenue: comparable history unavailable.

Exact estimates & source dates

One fiscal period and provider throughout. At least five contributors are required for each plotted metric; missing coverage stays a gap. Axes show the observed range. Counts measure coverage, not revisions.

FY2027 estimate observations · fmp
Snapshot	EPS	Revenue	EPS / revenue analysts
2026-07-24	Unavailable	Unavailable	2 / 2
2026-07-25	Unavailable	Unavailable	2 / 2
2026-07-26	Unavailable	Unavailable	2 / 2
2026-07-27	Unavailable	Unavailable	2 / 2
2026-07-28	Unavailable	Unavailable	2 / 2
2026-07-29	Unavailable	Unavailable	2 / 2
2026-07-30	Unavailable	Unavailable	2 / 1
2026-07-31	Unavailable	Unavailable	2 / 1
2026-08-01	Unavailable	Unavailable	2 / 1
2026-08-02	Unavailable	Unavailable	2 / 2
2026-08-03	Unavailable	Unavailable	2 / 2
2026-08-04	Unavailable	Unavailable	2 / 2
2026-08-05	Unavailable	Unavailable	2 / 2
2026-08-06	Unavailable	Unavailable	2 / 1
2026-08-08	Unavailable	Unavailable	2 / 2
2026-08-09	Unavailable	Unavailable	2 / 1
2026-08-10	Unavailable	Unavailable	2 / 1
2026-08-12	Unavailable	Unavailable	2 / 1
2026-08-13	Unavailable	Unavailable	2 / 1
2026-08-14	Unavailable	Unavailable	2 / 1
2026-08-15	Unavailable	Unavailable	2 / 1
2026-08-16	Unavailable	Unavailable	2 / 1
2026-08-17	Unavailable	Unavailable	2 / 1
2026-08-18	Unavailable	Unavailable	2 / 1
2026-08-19	Unavailable	Unavailable	1 / 2
2026-08-20	Unavailable	Unavailable	2 / 2
2026-08-21	Unavailable	Unavailable	2 / 2
2026-08-22	Unavailable	Unavailable	2 / 2
2026-08-23	Unavailable	Unavailable	2 / 2
2026-08-24	Unavailable	Unavailable	2 / 2
2026-08-25	Unavailable	Unavailable	2 / 2
2026-08-26	Unavailable	Unavailable	2 / 2
2026-08-27	Unavailable	Unavailable	2 / 2
2026-08-28	Unavailable	Unavailable	2 / 2
2026-08-29	Unavailable	Unavailable	2 / 2
2026-08-30	Unavailable	Unavailable	2 / 2
2026-08-31	Unavailable	Unavailable	2 / 2
2026-09-01	Unavailable	Unavailable	2 / 2
2026-09-02	Unavailable	Unavailable	2 / 2
2026-09-03	Unavailable	Unavailable	2 / 2
2026-09-04	Unavailable	Unavailable	2 / 2
2026-09-05	Unavailable	Unavailable	2 / 2
2026-09-06	Unavailable	Unavailable	2 / 2
2026-09-07	Unavailable	Unavailable	2 / 2
2026-09-08	Unavailable	Unavailable	2 / 2
2026-09-09	Unavailable	Unavailable	2 / 2
2026-09-10	Unavailable	Unavailable	2 / 2
2026-09-11	Unavailable	Unavailable	2 / 2
2026-09-12	Unavailable	Unavailable	2 / 2
2026-09-13	Unavailable	Unavailable	2 / 2
2026-09-14	Unavailable	Unavailable	2 / 2
2026-09-15	Unavailable	Unavailable	2 / 2
2026-09-16	Unavailable	Unavailable	2 / 2
2026-09-17	Unavailable	Unavailable	2 / 2
2026-09-18	Unavailable	Unavailable	2 / 2
2026-09-19	Unavailable	Unavailable	2 / 2
2026-09-20	Unavailable	Unavailable	2 / 2
2026-09-21	Unavailable	Unavailable	2 / 2
2026-09-22	Unavailable	Unavailable	2 / 2
2026-09-23	Unavailable	Unavailable	2 / 2
2026-09-24	Unavailable	Unavailable	2 / 2
2026-09-25	Unavailable	Unavailable	2 / 2
2026-09-26	Unavailable	Unavailable	2 / 2
2026-09-27	Unavailable	Unavailable	2 / 2
2026-09-28	Unavailable	Unavailable	2 / 2
2026-09-29	Unavailable	Unavailable	2 / 2
2026-09-30	Unavailable	Unavailable	2 / 2
2026-10-01	Unavailable	Unavailable	2 / 2
2026-10-02	Unavailable	Unavailable	2 / 2
2026-10-03	Unavailable	Unavailable	2 / 2
2026-10-04	Unavailable	Unavailable	2 / 2
2026-10-05	Unavailable	Unavailable	3 / 3
2026-10-06	Unavailable	Unavailable	3 / 3
2026-10-07	Unavailable	Unavailable	3 / 3
2026-10-08	Unavailable	Unavailable	3 / 3
2026-10-09	Unavailable	Unavailable	3 / 4
2026-10-10	Unavailable	Unavailable	3 / 4
2026-10-11	Unavailable	Unavailable	3 / 4
2026-10-12	Unavailable	Unavailable	3 / 4
2026-10-13	Unavailable	Unavailable	3 / 4
2026-10-14	Unavailable	Unavailable	3 / 4
2026-10-15	Unavailable	Unavailable	3 / 4
2026-10-16	Unavailable	Unavailable	3 / 4
2026-10-17	Unavailable	Unavailable	3 / 4
2026-10-18	Unavailable	Unavailable	3 / 3
2026-10-19	Unavailable	Unavailable	3 / 3
2026-10-20	Unavailable	Unavailable	3 / 3
2026-10-21	Unavailable	Unavailable	3 / 3
2026-10-22	Unavailable	Unavailable	3 / 3
2026-10-23	Unavailable	Unavailable	3 / 3
2026-10-24	Unavailable	Unavailable	3 / 3

Revenue and EPS estimates track expectations. They are not delivered results or like-for-like proof of a required annual path.

Compare required revenue and earnings

Analyst view

Monthly observations

Buy / Strong BuyHoldSell / Strong Sell

Exact monthly counts

Monthly rating snapshots · fmp. Missing snapshots are not zero.
Date	Buy*	Hold
2026-05-01	3	1
2026-06-01	3	1
2026-07-01	3	1
2026-08-01	3	1
2026-09-01	4	1
2026-10-01	6	1

*Buy includes Strong Buy; Sell includes Strong Sell. Monthly counts describe the analyst mix, not the firms behind each recent action.

Latest: 6 Buy / Strong Buy · 1 Hold · 0 Sell / Strong Sell

0 upgrades0 downgrades1 maintains

Recent actions · Sep 25–Oct 24 · 1 recorded

Price-target changes

30 days

○ Previous · ● Latest · common dollar scale

Roth CapitalSep 30 · prior Aug 11

$11.00 → $10.00-9.1%

$0$6.05$12.10

0 raises · 1 cuts · 0 unchanged · 0 without a comparable prior

How this is measured

Sep 25, 2026–Oct 24, 2026. Each firm's latest positive target is paired only with its immediately prior positive target from the same provider, at most 180 days earlier. Unmatched observations have one dot; conflicting observations are not compared.

Outlook in Brief

The evidence, the remaining questions, and what comes next

What's improving

No recovery evidence is reported in the available driver assessments.

Still unresolved / key risks

Capital expenditure near $180 million by 2026 year-endPublished status: Broken
Commence first sales at 50,000 barrels/day by 2026-04-01Direct metric needs a verified mapping
Platform Hondo online at >10,000 barrels/day by 2026-Q2Direct metric needs a verified mapping

Next proof point

Nov 12, 2026

Look for updated results and guidance against the published targets, plus direct evidence for unresolved drivers.

Review earnings

Bottom line

3 of 3 published conditions remain under pressure or need verification. The next results need to address those conditions.

The dated weekly assessment and its assumptions are available in Read detailed Outlook.

Historical risk context

Observed price history; separate from operating scenarios

Price sensitivity

4.0%Typical daily move · historical

Downside history

-83.5%Maximum drawdown · trailing year

Read detailed Outlook Company context, assumptions & risks

Sable Offshore Corp. outlook in detail

The weekly editorial context below is a separate assessment from the dated monitor evidence above. Recovery observations do not automatically change the published thesis. Unverified outside influences are hypotheses, not measured driver evidence.

Updated Oct 24, 2026

What kind of bet this is

SOC is a high-risk, loss-making energy business rather than an established compounder. Its multi-year view is in a watch state: recent performance has lagged its industry cohort, and confidence in the evidence is low.

What's priced into Sable Offshore Corp.

The valuation model indicates a 2.27 premium versus peers, though confidence in that estimate is low. The evidence points to a durable premium, while the priced-in fragility assessment says sector turbulence is the main concern, not a combined stack of expensive valuation, weak results, and turbulence.

What the fundamentals likely do

Near term, the risk of another earnings miss is elevated after recent misses, and a guidance cut would add pressure to the business outlook. Management completed the loan refinancing, but Platform Hondo is delayed and capex plans have shifted, so execution remains mixed.

What Sable Offshore Corp. hinges on

Over the next several quarters, the thesis hinges on whether SOC brings Platform Hondo online as expected and manages spending while improving financial performance. Sector bellwethers NE, VAL, and PTEN are also important signals: continued earnings strength could sustain the Energy tailwind, while misses or lower guidance could weaken it.