SLM Corp (SLM)

NASDAQFinancialsFinancial - Credit ServicesSnapshot 2026-10-23

$19.42-10.75%

Close 2026-10-23 · 1-day change

Investment OutlookAs of Oct 24, 2026

What could strengthen or challenge SLM Corp’s outlook?

The long-term thesis, the evidence coming in, and the environment around it. Thesis dated Jul 8, 2026.

Higher potential upsideImproving expectations

Next-FY EPS estimate change · 30 days

-10.3% · beyond scale

+10% or more+5%0%−5%−10% or less

3.36 → 3.01 EPS · FY ending Dec 31, 2027 · 7 analysts

Higher risk of downsideWeakening expectations

One observable signal. This measures changing earnings expectations, not the probability of a gain or loss.

How this is measured

Change in the same fiscal period’s mean EPS estimate from Sep 24, 2026 to Oct 24, 2026: (new ÷ prior − 1). Contributor count changed from 8 to 7; this is not the number of analysts revising. Source: FMP consensus snapshots. The ±10% axis is a display range.

Measure / period	Management expectations	Analyst expectations
Quarter ending 2026-12-30
Revenue	—	444.23M
EPS	—	0.354
Quarter ending 2027-03-31
Revenue	—	351.19M
EPS	—	1.026
Annual ending 2026-12-31
Revenue	—	1.75B
EPS	—	2.12
Annual ending 2027-12-31
Revenue	—	1.93B
EPS	—	3.009

Management figures unavailable.

What the Thesis Depends On

4 published thesis conditions, with dated milestones shown separately.

Key Factor	Why It Matters	Current Status	Break Condition	Latest Evidence
Share repurchases of at least $300 million in 2026-Q1	Debt issuance of $500 million supports capital needs.	Under Pressure	share repurchases fall below $300 million in 2026-Q1	Required source inputs unavailable Cannot calculate Share repurchases from the available matching source inputs. Missing inputs are not treated as zero. Source date unavailableLast status assessment Oct 24, 2026Compare required operating outcomes Compare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement.
Debt issuance of $500 million in 2026-Q2	Debt issuance of $500 million supports capital needs.	Intact	Debt issuance falls below $500 million in 2026-Q2	Direct metric needs a verified mapping The published measure or accounting basis is not supported by an exact source binding. Source date unavailableLast status assessment Oct 24, 2026Compare required operating outcomes Compare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement.
Maintain dividend payout near $0.13 per share quarterly	A supporting condition in SLM Corp's published investment case. The stated target is >=0.13 USD per share quarterly.	Intact	Dividend falls below $0.13 per share quarterly	Dividend per share: $0.13 per share FY2026-Q3; GAAP. Published target: >=0.13 USD per share quarterly. Target period is not explicitly aligned with this observation. Source published Oct 22, 20260.13 USD/share · source valueSource reportLast status assessment Oct 24, 2026 Measurement source consolidated · GAAP FY2026-Q3 · Period ending Sep 30, 2026 Source: company_financial_results. Reference: 48480455-9014-44c1-9b68-ad07e7c2f337. Source status: eligible. Compare required operating outcomes Compare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement.
EPS of about $3.15 for full year 2026	The company raised its EPS guidance to about $3.15 for 2026.	Intact	EPS guidance falls below $3.0 for 2026	Direct metric needs a verified mapping The published measure or accounting basis is not supported by an exact source binding. Source date unavailableLast status assessment Oct 24, 2026Compare required operating outcomes Compare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement.

Stored thesis · Jul 8, 2026. Latest Evidence uses source-matched measurements where available, alongside the last thesis-monitor assessment. Source periods and assessment dates are shown separately. A new measurement does not automatically change the published status or verify an older target.

Incoming Evidence

Compare these dated observations with the operating requirements above

Expectations trend

Same fiscal period

FY2027 · fiscal year ending 2027-12-31 · fmp

FY2027 EPS$3.01

$3.38 → $3.01 · observed estimates

FY2027 revenueUnavailable

$1.46B → Unavailable · observed estimates

Exact estimates & source dates

One fiscal period and provider throughout. At least five contributors are required for each plotted metric; missing coverage stays a gap. Axes show the observed range. Counts measure coverage, not revisions.

FY2027 estimate observations · fmp
Snapshot	EPS	Revenue	EPS / revenue analysts
2026-07-24	$3.38	$1,464,596,800	10 / 5
2026-07-25	$3.33	Unavailable	7 / 4
2026-07-26	$3.33	Unavailable	7 / 4
2026-07-27	$3.33	Unavailable	7 / 4
2026-07-28	$3.36	$1,453,576,800	10 / 5
2026-07-29	$3.36	$1,455,028,400	10 / 5
2026-07-30	$3.36	$1,455,028,400	10 / 5
2026-07-31	$3.36	$1,455,028,400	10 / 5
2026-08-01	$3.35	Unavailable	8 / 4
2026-08-02	$3.36	$1,455,028,400	10 / 5
2026-08-03	$3.35	Unavailable	8 / 4
2026-08-04	$3.36	$1,455,028,400	10 / 5
2026-08-05	$3.36	$1,455,028,400	10 / 5
2026-08-06	$3.36	$1,455,028,400	10 / 5
2026-08-08	$3.36	$1,455,028,400	10 / 5
2026-08-09	$3.35	Unavailable	8 / 4
2026-08-10	$3.35	Unavailable	8 / 4
2026-08-12	$3.35	Unavailable	8 / 4
2026-08-13	$3.36	$1,455,028,400	10 / 5
2026-08-14	$3.35	Unavailable	8 / 4
2026-08-15	$3.35	Unavailable	8 / 4
2026-08-16	$3.35	Unavailable	8 / 4
2026-08-17	$3.35	Unavailable	8 / 4
2026-08-18	$3.35	Unavailable	8 / 4
2026-08-19	$3.35	Unavailable	8 / 4
2026-08-20	$3.36	Unavailable	8 / 4
2026-08-21	$3.36	Unavailable	8 / 4
2026-08-22	$3.36	Unavailable	8 / 4
2026-08-23	$3.36	Unavailable	8 / 4
2026-08-24	$3.36	Unavailable	8 / 4
2026-08-25	$3.36	Unavailable	8 / 4
2026-08-26	$3.36	Unavailable	8 / 4
2026-08-27	$3.36	Unavailable	8 / 4
2026-08-28	$3.36	Unavailable	8 / 4
2026-08-29	$3.36	Unavailable	8 / 4
2026-08-30	$3.36	Unavailable	8 / 4
2026-08-31	$3.36	Unavailable	8 / 4
2026-09-01	$3.36	Unavailable	8 / 4
2026-09-02	$3.36	Unavailable	8 / 4
2026-09-03	$3.36	Unavailable	8 / 4
2026-09-04	$3.36	Unavailable	8 / 4
2026-09-05	$3.36	Unavailable	8 / 4
2026-09-06	$3.36	Unavailable	8 / 4
2026-09-07	$3.36	Unavailable	8 / 4
2026-09-08	$3.36	Unavailable	8 / 4
2026-09-09	$3.36	Unavailable	8 / 4
2026-09-10	$3.36	Unavailable	8 / 4
2026-09-11	$3.36	Unavailable	8 / 4
2026-09-12	$3.36	Unavailable	8 / 4
2026-09-13	$3.36	Unavailable	8 / 4
2026-09-14	$3.36	Unavailable	8 / 4
2026-09-15	$3.36	Unavailable	8 / 4
2026-09-16	$3.36	Unavailable	8 / 4
2026-09-17	$3.36	Unavailable	8 / 4
2026-09-18	$3.36	Unavailable	8 / 4
2026-09-19	$3.36	Unavailable	8 / 4
2026-09-20	$3.36	Unavailable	8 / 4
2026-09-21	$3.36	Unavailable	8 / 4
2026-09-22	$3.36	Unavailable	8 / 4
2026-09-23	$3.36	Unavailable	8 / 4
2026-09-24	$3.36	Unavailable	8 / 4
2026-09-25	$3.36	Unavailable	8 / 4
2026-09-26	$3.36	Unavailable	8 / 4
2026-09-27	$3.36	Unavailable	8 / 4
2026-09-28	$3.36	Unavailable	8 / 4
2026-09-29	$3.36	Unavailable	8 / 4
2026-09-30	$3.36	Unavailable	8 / 4
2026-10-01	$3.36	Unavailable	8 / 4
2026-10-02	$3.36	Unavailable	8 / 4
2026-10-03	$3.36	Unavailable	8 / 4
2026-10-04	$3.36	Unavailable	8 / 4
2026-10-05	$3.36	Unavailable	8 / 4
2026-10-06	$3.37	Unavailable	8 / 4
2026-10-07	$3.37	Unavailable	7 / 4
2026-10-08	$3.37	Unavailable	7 / 4
2026-10-09	$3.37	Unavailable	7 / 4
2026-10-10	$3.37	Unavailable	7 / 4
2026-10-11	$3.37	Unavailable	7 / 4
2026-10-12	$3.37	Unavailable	7 / 4
2026-10-13	$3.37	Unavailable	7 / 4
2026-10-14	$3.37	Unavailable	7 / 4
2026-10-15	$3.37	Unavailable	7 / 4
2026-10-16	$3.38	Unavailable	7 / 4
2026-10-17	$3.38	Unavailable	7 / 4
2026-10-18	$3.38	Unavailable	8 / 4
2026-10-19	$3.38	Unavailable	8 / 4
2026-10-20	$3.38	Unavailable	8 / 4
2026-10-21	$3.38	Unavailable	8 / 4
2026-10-22	$3.38	Unavailable	8 / 4
2026-10-23	$3.07	Unavailable	8 / 4
2026-10-24	$3.01	Unavailable	7 / 4

Revenue and EPS estimates track expectations. They are not delivered results or like-for-like proof of a required annual path.

Compare required revenue and earnings

Analyst view

Monthly observations

Buy / Strong BuyHoldSell / Strong Sell

Exact monthly counts

Monthly rating snapshots · fmp. Missing snapshots are not zero.
Date	Buy*	Hold	Sell*
2026-05-01	7	3	1
2026-06-01	7	3	1
2026-07-01	7	4	1
2026-08-01	6	4	1
2026-09-01	6	4	1
2026-10-01	7	4	1

*Buy includes Strong Buy; Sell includes Strong Sell. Monthly counts describe the analyst mix, not the firms behind each recent action.

Latest: 7 Buy / Strong Buy · 4 Hold · 1 Sell / Strong Sell

1 upgrades0 downgrades7 maintains

Recent actions · Sep 25–Oct 24 · 8 recorded

Price-target changes

30 days

○ Previous · ● Latest · common dollar scale

RBC CapitalOct 23 · prior Jul 10

$29.00 → $26.00-10.3%

BarclaysOct 23

$22.00New observation · no comparable prior

$0$15.95$31.90

0 raises · 1 cuts · 0 unchanged · 1 without a comparable prior

How this is measured

Sep 25, 2026–Oct 24, 2026. Each firm's latest positive target is paired only with its immediately prior positive target from the same provider, at most 180 days earlier. Unmatched observations have one dot; conflicting observations are not compared.

Outlook in Brief

The evidence, the remaining questions, and what comes next

What's improving

No recovery evidence is reported in the available driver assessments.

Still unresolved / key risks

Share repurchases of at least $300 million in 2026-Q1Published status: Under Pressure
Debt issuance of $500 million in 2026-Q2Direct metric needs a verified mapping
Maintain dividend payout near $0.13 per share quarterlyDividend per share: $0.13 per share
EPS of about $3.15 for full year 2026Direct metric needs a verified mapping

Next proof point

Next earnings date unavailable

Look for updated results and guidance against the published targets, plus direct evidence for unresolved drivers.

Review earnings

Bottom line

4 of 4 published conditions remain under pressure or need verification. The next results need to address those conditions.

The dated weekly assessment and its assumptions are available in Read detailed Outlook.

Historical risk context

Observed price history; separate from operating scenarios

Price sensitivity

1.1%Typical daily move · historical

Downside history

-39.3%Maximum drawdown · trailing year

Read detailed Outlook Company context, assumptions & risks

SLM Corp outlook in detail

The weekly editorial context below is a separate assessment from the dated monitor evidence above. Recovery observations do not automatically change the published thesis. Unverified outside influences are hypotheses, not measured driver evidence.

Updated Oct 24, 2026

What kind of bet this is

SLM is a financial company with a growth-oriented, but credit-sensitive, business rather than a steady compounder. The long-term thesis is intact after stronger recent results, though earnings quality is fragile and risk remains elevated.

What's priced into SLM Corp

The evidence describes SLM as cheap on the value measure, but also tags expectations as stretched and shows a 1.21 premium versus peers. The expectations gap is small and valuation signals are aligned, so the evidence suggests the market already reflects much of the current setup, without pricing in the full fragile-execution risk.

What the fundamentals likely do

Near term, private education loan originations are growing: they rose 15% year over year in the third quarter, and full-year growth guidance remains 12% to 14%. Credit costs and expenses are pressure points: net charge-offs rose, their full-year guidance increased, and non-interest expenses were higher, while management cites slower recovery-strategy adoption. Recent results were strong overall, but erratic earnings surprises and a downtrend in surprises leave some near-term uncertainty.

What SLM Corp hinges on

The multi-year view hinges on whether loan growth can continue without further deterioration in credit performance or expense control. A guidance cut would be a meaningful negative, while lower interest rates could add sector pressure. Continued strong earnings and guidance from sector bellwethers such as Visa, Mastercard, and American Express could support sector momentum.