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Track SLDE free→Slide Insurance Holdings, Inc. (SLDE)
NASDAQFinancialsInsurance - Property & CasualtySnapshot 2026-07-06
Intact
$20.97-1.32%
Close 2026-07-06 · 1-day change
Recent financial performance is holding in the top half of its industry — the reason to own it looks intact.
The bottom line
The thesis is that SLDE's growth will continue due to its steady management. Revenue growth is expected to be strong, supported by recent positive trends. It trades at 2.6× price-to-book versus a peer median of 1.8×. This suggests the price reflects less growth than we forecast. A specific risk is that competition could impact performance, especially if guidance is cut. Peer multiples imply a price about 54% above where it trades; this read is provisional.
as of 2026-07-06
Quick facts
- Exchange
- NASDAQ
- Sector
- Financials
- Industry
- Insurance - Property & Casualty
- Market cap
- $2.43B
- Employees
- —
- IPO date
- 2025-05-23
- Next earnings
- 2026-08-11
Price
Daily closes. Earnings/event dots are placed inline.
Adjusted daily closes (split & dividend). Scroll over the chart to zoom; click a range to reset.
EarningsMaterial event
What's priced in
(what the market already expects)What it's worth (estimated)
A consensus fair price across 10 valuation methods, at three horizons. Current price $20.97. As of 2026-07-06. Estimates are diagnostics, not price targets. Short-horizon estimates are close to coin-flips, so confidence is a method-agreement read, not a prediction.
Fair value· primary
$45.18
Range $18.40 – $59.16
vs price: -54% below
Method agreement : high · 10 methods
Today's peer multiple on trailing earnings, with no growth credited. This is the headline read.
3-year
$26.55consensus
Range $18.50 – $35.92
vs price: -21% below
Method agreement : medium · 3 methods
Adds projected growth, so it leans optimistic by design. Read it as upside context, not a base case.
5-year
$27.11consensus
Range $20.74 – $37.60
vs price: -23% below
Method agreement : high · 3 methods
A long-thesis check that carries the widest uncertainty of the three horizons.
How much to trust our fair value
We take the 12-month fair value above and grade our own number — how the market prices this name versus what we'd justify, and where the two diverge.
Durable premiummedium confidence
At $21 the market pays 2.6× p/b — above the 1.8× p/b peer median but in line with its own 2× history. That premium reflects a durable franchise our peer-anchored $46 fair value understates; treat the 'expensive vs peers' read with medium confidence. Not investment advice.
Multiple (multiple)
2.6x
peer 1.8x · own history 2.4x
Premium
1.5x peer
1.1x its own history
Growth the price needs
-56%
our forecast 19%
Our fair value
$45.74
range $19.47 – $59.85
How this stock is priced
One valuation read at a 12-month horizon, plus how price compares to peers and the company's own history.
Long-term · 1–3 yr
12-month view
What's priced inJustified
The price sits about 56% below a flat-multiple fair value, while analysts forecast about 19% growth — below our forecast. This describes what's priced in, not a forecast of the move.
Low fragilityrisk posture, not a price call
No fragility gates fired. Regime (Mania) does not concentrate fragility.
Historical context
For similar setups historically (n=20,154): about 33% saw a 20%+ drawdown, and roughly 76% of those did not recover within the year. These are historical base rates for the cohort, not a forecast of this stock.
Compared to peers
5.8xP/E · peer median
How strong is the business
(quality & execution)Factor signals
Each factor is a parallel diagnostic with a clear read of what it shows and how names like it have historically fared. Never aggregated into a single score.
Recent financial performance
Not enough signal yet.
Earnings quality
Not enough signal yet.
Macro sensitivity
Not enough signal yet.
Not enough signal to read sensitivity to the US dollar, the broad stock market, Fed net liquidity, long-term interest rates, real (inflation-adjusted) rates.
Management & capital allocation
neutral6 material management or governance events in the past 24 months, led by capital-allocation actions. Historically, Financials names rated neutral grew net income 49% of the time over the next year (vs 51% for the rest of the cohort, n=3598).
63rd pctl · Financials
Not investment advice. As of 2026-07-06.
Earnings setup & market context
The next print and the backdrop around it (sector regime and the AI cycle). Context for the path, not a forecast of returns.
Earnings setup · pre-print positioning
forward-looking
Neutral5 analysts, 100% Buyfor period ending 2026-09-30
Why this setup
Consensus revisions
EPS estimate $0.60 → $0.60 (+0.0% / 30d). 3 raised, 1 cut, 5 covering analysts.
Rating actions
0 upgrades, 0 downgrades / 30d. 100% of analysts rate Buy.
Price target activity
1 PT revisions / 30d. Avg target -5.9% above current price.
Sector context
Intermediate · WeeklySector phase: financials is in growth, with decelerating (~3.2 years in phase).
Sector regime (90d momentum): mixed.Secular epoch: Growth by revenue growth.Management scorecard
How management runs the business: capital, margins, balance sheet, and how reliably they guide and deliver.
Long-term · 1–3 yr
Provisional
- Earnings discipline
- strong
- Post-call reaction
- neutral
A guidance track record builds as the company issues and delivers on guidance.
as of 2026-07-06
What management is focused on
Priorities management has stated in recent disclosures, with status and evidence drawn from earnings calls, filings, and press releases.
Long-term · 1–3 yr
How bumpy is the path
(risk while you hold it)Risk: how this stock moves
What a normal day, a bad day, and the worst of the last year would mean for a $10,000 position.
Intermediate · WeeklyLong-term · 1–3 yr
On a typical day, $10k can swing ±$138.
How much price usually moves either way.
On a bad day, this stock has moved -$469.
A rough but not unusual down day (about the 95th percentile).
In the worst 12 months, $10k could have lost $3,872.
Deepest peak-to-trough drop in the last year.
elevatedas of 2026-07-06
Past results, not a forecast. Not investment advice.
What would change the read
(catalysts & re-read triggers)What changed
The most important moves since the prior daily snapshot.
Short-term · Daily
- No material changes since the prior snapshot.
Yes, our read has weakened. Competition is a concern due to a director's recent sale. This raises worries about pressures in the market. There are no other strong factors supporting the thesis.
as of 2026-07-06
What to watch next
Specific, dated things to watch for, each with what would confirm it and what would prove it wrong.
Intermediate · Weekly
- UpsideHigh confidenceQuartersactive 17d
Watch for gross written premiums hitting $1.85B
Why it matters: Achieving this premium level is key to meeting the company's growth target for 2026.
What confirms / what disproves
Confirms:Gross written premiums reported at $1.85B or higher.
Disproves:Gross written premiums reported below $1.85B.
Management priorities
News catalysts
Recent news graded against this company's own objectives — whether it reinforces or challenges the thesis, and how confirmed it is.
- 2026-06-051mo agoYahoo! Finance
Director's sale raises concerns about competitive pressures.
ChallengesUnconfirmed report
This sector is also watching
- Watch for revenue growth dropping below 10% across major banks
- Watch for consumer spending trends in retail sales data
- Watch for FOMC decisions that affect interest rates.
What could change this view
Conditional scenarios: if X happens, the view would shift in this direction. These are not predictions.
Intermediate · Weekly
Upside triggers
- If sector bellwethers like CB, PGR, and TRV keep beating earnings and guiding higher, the Financials sector momentum should keep lifting SLDE and other Financials names. Worth watching these names for early signals.
- If SLDE raises forward guidance on the next earnings call (currently NEW as of 2026-04-28), that's a momentum boost. Street estimates typically follow guidance up and the stock tends to re-rate higher.
Downside triggers
- If SLDE cuts guidance on the next call (currently NEW as of 2026-04-28), that's a meaningful negative. The Street tends to walk down estimates and the stock usually takes a leg lower.
- If the Fed starts cutting rates from the current 3.63%, that would weigh on SLDE and other Financials names, since the sector usually outperforms when rates stay high.
- If sector bellwethers like CB, PGR, and TRV start missing or guiding lower, the Financials tailwind helping SLDE and other Financials names could fade. Watch these names for early warning.
Recent events
(material 8-K / filing activity)Material updates
Recent SEC 8-K filings ranked by likely impact, confidence, and recency.
- 2026-04-282mo agoItem 2.02
Results of Operations and Financial Condition. On April 28, 2026, Slide Insurance Holdings, Inc. (the “Company”) issued a press release announcing its financial results for the three months ended March 31, 2026. A copy of the press release is furnished as Exhibit 99.1 to this Form 8-K and is incorporated by reference. Information in Exhibit 99.1 of this Form 8-K shall not be deemed “filed” for the purposes of Section 18 of the Securities Exchange Act of 1934, as amended (the “Exchange Act”),…
Earnings preannouncementpositive
Score history
Whether the overall read has been drifting up or down lately, and how it's changed since last week.
+4.4 vs last weeklatest as of 2026-07-06
Not investment advice. Scores describe historical and current data; they are not forecasts of future returns. Consult a licensed advisor before making investment decisions.