SiTime (SITM)

NASDAQInformation TechnologySemiconductorsSnapshot 2026-10-23

$460.22-0.54%

Close 2026-10-23 · 1-day change

Investment OutlookAs of Oct 24, 2026

What could strengthen or challenge SiTime’s outlook?

The long-term thesis, the evidence coming in, and the environment around it. Thesis dated Jul 8, 2026.

Higher potential upsideImproving expectations

Next-FY EPS estimate change · 30 days

+0.1%

+10% or more+5%0%−5%−10% or less

14.92 → 14.93 EPS · FY ending Dec 31, 2027 · 8 analysts

Higher risk of downsideWeakening expectations

One observable signal. This measures changing earnings expectations, not the probability of a gain or loss.

How this is measured

Change in the same fiscal period’s mean EPS estimate from Sep 24, 2026 to Oct 24, 2026: (new ÷ prior − 1). Contributor count changed from 6 to 8; this is not the number of analysts revising. Source: FMP consensus snapshots. The ±10% axis is a display range.

Measure / period	Management expectations	Analyst expectations
Quarter ending 2026-12-30
Revenue	—	313.99M
EPS	—	3.722
Annual ending 2026-12-31
Revenue	—	877.29M
EPS	—	11.28
Annual ending 2027-12-31
Revenue	—	1.36B
EPS	—	14.931

Management figures unavailable.

What the Thesis Depends On

4 published thesis conditions, with dated milestones shown separately.

Key Factor	Why It Matters	Current Status	Break Condition	Latest Evidence
Manage dilution from convertible notes and equity sales	A supporting condition in SiTime's published investment case. The stated target is Dilution limited to under 10% over next 12 months.	Under Pressure	Dilution exceeds 10% or new notes raise serious concerns	Direct metric needs a verified mapping The published measure or accounting basis is not supported by an exact source binding. Source date unavailableLast status assessment Oct 24, 2026Compare required operating outcomes Compare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement.
Non-GAAP gross margin stays near 64.5%	A primary condition in SiTime's published investment case. The stated target is >=60%.	Intact	gross margin falls below 60% over next 4 quarters	Direct metric needs a verified mapping The published measure or accounting basis is not supported by an exact source binding. Source date unavailableLast status assessment Oct 24, 2026Compare required operating outcomes Compare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement. Management context Stated in 3 quarters from 2025-Q4 to 2026-Q2. Non-GAAP gross margin improved from 64.5% in 2026-Q1 to 67.1% in 2026-Q2, exceeding the target range of 60-65%. The acquired business has a 70% gross margin legacy. The trajectory shows delivering margin expansion and strong profitability. Delivery assessment Oct 24, 2026
Revenue from Renesas timing business reaches $300 million	The Renesas deal should add $300 million revenue next year.	Intact	revenue from Renesas assets falls below $200 million in FY2027	Revenue: $157.432M FY2026-Q2; GAAP. Published target: >=300 million USD. Target period is not explicitly aligned with this observation. Source published Aug 6, 2026157,432,000 USD · source valueSource reportLast status assessment Oct 24, 2026 Measurement source consolidated · GAAP FY2026-Q2 · Period ending Jun 30, 2026 Source: company_financial_results. Reference: deb3b00d-acae-45a7-9df0-f1fd62eb79e3. Source status: eligible. Compare required operating outcomes Compare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement. Management context Stated as a priority in 3 quarters from 2025-Q4 through 2026-Q2. Revenue grew from $69.5 million in 2025-Q2 to $157.4 million in 2026-Q2 (+127%). The acquisition completed on July 1, 2026, added over 550 products and is expected to generate at least $300 million revenue in 12 months post-close. The trajectory is delivering with strong revenue growth and successful closing. Delivery assessment Oct 24, 2026
Total revenue grows at least 60% year over year	SiTime grew revenue 88% year over year to $113.6 million.	Improving	total revenue growth falls below 40% YoY in FY2027	Direct metric needs a verified mapping The published measure or accounting basis is not supported by an exact source binding. Source date unavailableLast status assessment Oct 24, 2026Compare required operating outcomes Compare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement. Management context Stated as a priority in 3 quarters from 2025-Q4 through 2026-Q2. Revenue grew from $69.5 million in 2025-Q2 to $157.4 million in 2026-Q2 (+127%). The acquisition completed on July 1, 2026, added over 550 products and is expected to generate at least $300 million revenue in 12 months post-close. The trajectory is delivering with strong revenue growth and successful closing. Delivery assessment Oct 24, 2026

Stored thesis · Jul 8, 2026. Latest Evidence uses source-matched measurements where available, alongside the last thesis-monitor assessment. Source periods and assessment dates are shown separately. A new measurement does not automatically change the published status or verify an older target.

Incoming Evidence

Compare these dated observations with the operating requirements above

Expectations trend

Same fiscal period

FY2027 · fiscal year ending 2027-12-31 · fmp

FY2027 EPS$14.93

Unavailable → $14.93 · observed estimates

FY2027 revenue$1.36B

Unavailable → $1.36B · observed estimates

Exact estimates & source dates

One fiscal period and provider throughout. At least five contributors are required for each plotted metric; missing coverage stays a gap. Axes show the observed range. Counts measure coverage, not revisions.

FY2027 estimate observations · fmp
Snapshot	EPS	Revenue	EPS / revenue analysts
2026-07-24	Unavailable	Unavailable	2 / 2
2026-07-25	Unavailable	Unavailable	2 / 2
2026-07-26	Unavailable	Unavailable	2 / 2
2026-07-27	Unavailable	Unavailable	2 / 2
2026-07-28	Unavailable	Unavailable	2 / 2
2026-07-29	Unavailable	Unavailable	2 / 2
2026-07-30	Unavailable	Unavailable	2 / 2
2026-07-31	Unavailable	Unavailable	2 / 2
2026-08-01	Unavailable	Unavailable	2 / 2
2026-08-02	Unavailable	Unavailable	2 / 2
2026-08-03	Unavailable	Unavailable	2 / 2
2026-08-04	Unavailable	Unavailable	2 / 2
2026-08-05	Unavailable	Unavailable	2 / 2
2026-08-06	Unavailable	Unavailable	2 / 2
2026-08-08	$14.91	$1,354,661,140	8 / 7
2026-08-09	$14.91	$1,354,661,140	8 / 7
2026-08-10	$14.91	$1,354,661,140	8 / 7
2026-08-12	$14.91	$1,354,661,140	8 / 7
2026-08-13	Unavailable	Unavailable	2 / 2
2026-08-14	Unavailable	Unavailable	2 / 2
2026-08-15	Unavailable	Unavailable	2 / 2
2026-08-16	Unavailable	Unavailable	4 / 4
2026-08-17	Unavailable	Unavailable	4 / 4
2026-08-18	Unavailable	Unavailable	4 / 4
2026-08-19	Unavailable	Unavailable	4 / 4
2026-08-20	$14.91	$1,354,661,137	5 / 5
2026-08-21	$14.92	$1,355,328,495	6 / 6
2026-08-22	$14.92	$1,355,328,495	6 / 6
2026-08-23	$14.92	$1,355,328,495	6 / 6
2026-08-24	$14.92	$1,355,328,495	6 / 6
2026-08-25	$14.92	$1,355,328,495	6 / 6
2026-08-26	$14.92	$1,355,328,495	6 / 6
2026-08-27	$14.92	$1,355,328,495	6 / 6
2026-08-28	$14.92	$1,355,328,495	6 / 6
2026-08-29	$14.92	$1,355,328,495	6 / 6
2026-08-30	$14.92	$1,355,328,495	6 / 6
2026-08-31	$14.92	$1,355,328,495	6 / 6
2026-09-01	$14.92	$1,355,328,495	6 / 6
2026-09-02	$14.92	$1,355,328,495	6 / 6
2026-09-03	$14.92	$1,355,328,495	6 / 6
2026-09-04	$14.92	$1,355,328,495	6 / 6
2026-09-05	$14.92	$1,355,328,495	6 / 6
2026-09-06	$14.92	$1,355,328,495	6 / 6
2026-09-07	$14.92	$1,355,328,495	6 / 6
2026-09-08	$14.92	$1,355,328,495	6 / 6
2026-09-09	$14.92	$1,355,328,495	6 / 6
2026-09-10	$14.92	$1,355,328,495	6 / 6
2026-09-11	$14.92	$1,355,328,495	6 / 6
2026-09-12	$14.92	$1,355,328,495	6 / 6
2026-09-13	$14.92	$1,355,328,495	6 / 6
2026-09-14	$14.92	$1,355,328,495	6 / 6
2026-09-15	$14.92	$1,355,328,495	6 / 6
2026-09-16	$14.93	$1,355,328,495	6 / 6
2026-09-17	$14.93	$1,355,328,495	6 / 6
2026-09-18	$14.93	$1,355,328,495	6 / 6
2026-09-19	$14.93	$1,355,328,495	6 / 6
2026-09-20	$14.92	$1,355,877,771	6 / 7
2026-09-21	$14.92	$1,355,877,771	6 / 7
2026-09-22	$14.92	$1,355,877,771	6 / 7
2026-09-23	$14.92	$1,355,877,771	6 / 7
2026-09-24	$14.92	$1,355,877,771	6 / 7
2026-09-25	$14.92	$1,353,389,994	7 / 8
2026-09-26	$14.92	$1,353,389,994	7 / 8
2026-09-27	$14.92	$1,353,389,994	7 / 8
2026-09-28	$14.92	$1,353,389,994	7 / 8
2026-09-29	$14.92	$1,353,389,994	7 / 8
2026-09-30	$14.92	$1,353,389,994	7 / 8
2026-10-01	$14.92	$1,353,389,994	7 / 8
2026-10-02	$14.92	$1,353,389,994	7 / 8
2026-10-03	$14.92	$1,353,389,994	7 / 8
2026-10-04	$14.92	$1,353,389,994	7 / 8
2026-10-05	$14.92	$1,353,389,994	7 / 8
2026-10-06	$14.92	$1,353,389,994	7 / 8
2026-10-07	$14.92	$1,353,389,994	7 / 8
2026-10-08	$14.92	$1,353,389,994	7 / 8
2026-10-09	$14.92	$1,353,389,994	7 / 8
2026-10-10	$14.92	$1,353,389,994	7 / 8
2026-10-11	$14.92	$1,353,389,994	7 / 8
2026-10-12	$14.92	$1,353,389,994	7 / 8
2026-10-13	$14.92	$1,353,389,994	7 / 8
2026-10-14	$14.92	$1,353,389,994	7 / 8
2026-10-15	$14.92	$1,353,389,994	7 / 8
2026-10-16	$14.92	$1,353,389,994	7 / 8
2026-10-17	$14.92	$1,353,389,994	7 / 8
2026-10-18	$14.92	$1,353,389,994	7 / 8
2026-10-19	$14.92	$1,353,389,994	7 / 8
2026-10-20	$14.92	$1,353,389,994	7 / 8
2026-10-21	$14.93	$1,355,836,358	7 / 8
2026-10-22	$14.93	$1,355,836,358	7 / 8
2026-10-23	$14.93	$1,355,836,358	8 / 9
2026-10-24	$14.93	$1,355,836,358	8 / 9

Revenue and EPS estimates track expectations. They are not delivered results or like-for-like proof of a required annual path.

Compare required revenue and earnings

Analyst view

Monthly observations

Buy / Strong BuyHoldSell / Strong Sell

Exact monthly counts

Monthly rating snapshots · fmp. Missing snapshots are not zero.
Date	Buy*	Hold
2026-05-01	9	1
2026-06-01	9	0
2026-07-01	8	0
2026-08-01	9	0
2026-09-01	10	1
2026-10-01	11	1

*Buy includes Strong Buy; Sell includes Strong Sell. Monthly counts describe the analyst mix, not the firms behind each recent action.

Latest: 11 Buy / Strong Buy · 1 Hold · 0 Sell / Strong Sell

0 upgrades0 downgrades0 maintains

Recent actions · Sep 25–Oct 24 · 0 recorded

Price-target changes

30 days

Individual price-target observations are unavailable.

0 raises · 0 cuts · 0 unchanged · 0 without a comparable prior

How this is measured

Sep 25, 2026–Oct 24, 2026. Each firm's latest positive target is paired only with its immediately prior positive target from the same provider, at most 180 days earlier. Unmatched observations have one dot; conflicting observations are not compared.

Outlook in Brief

The evidence, the remaining questions, and what comes next

What's improving

No recovery evidence is reported in the available driver assessments.

Still unresolved / key risks

Manage dilution from convertible notes and equity salesPublished status: Under Pressure
Non-GAAP gross margin stays near 64.5%Direct metric needs a verified mapping
Revenue from Renesas timing business reaches $300 millionRevenue: $157.432M
Total revenue grows at least 60% year over yearDirect metric needs a verified mapping

Next proof point

Nov 4, 2026

Look for updated results and guidance against the published targets, plus direct evidence for unresolved drivers.

Review earnings

Bottom line

4 of 4 published conditions remain under pressure or need verification. The next results need to address those conditions.

The dated weekly assessment and its assumptions are available in Read detailed Outlook.

Historical risk context

Observed price history; separate from operating scenarios

Price sensitivity

3.4%Typical daily move · historical

Downside history

-48.9%Maximum drawdown · trailing year

Read detailed Outlook Company context, assumptions & risks

SiTime outlook in detail

The weekly editorial context below is a separate assessment from the dated monitor evidence above. Recovery observations do not automatically change the published thesis. Unverified outside influences are hypotheses, not measured driver evidence.

Updated Oct 24, 2026

What kind of bet this is

This is a high-risk growth thesis, with recent expansion driven in part by the Renesas timing business acquisition. The long-term thesis has improved from mixed to mildly favorable, but remains in a watch state because recent performance has trailed its industry cohort.

What's priced into SiTime

SITM trades at a 3.24-times premium to peers, and the valuation model points to an expectations gap of negative 0.18, though confidence in that model is low. The valuation is tagged as justified with low fragility, but the premium leaves the thesis reliant on the expected growth and acquisition benefits materializing.

What the fundamentals likely do

Near term, revenue growth and margin execution are supported by the completed acquisition, which added over 550 products and is expected to generate at least $300 million in revenue during its first 12 months after closing. Non-GAAP gross margin rose to 67.1% in 2026-Q2, above the stated target range, while the company remains loss-making on the evidence provided. A guidance cut would be a meaningful negative; the recent earnings beat is encouraging, but earnings surprises have been trending down after a deep miss in the recent history.

What SiTime hinges on

Over the multi-year view, the central question is whether the acquired business delivers its expected revenue while SITM sustains margin gains. Near term, the thesis also depends on guidance and broader technology-sector conditions, including interest-rate cuts and continued strong results from sector bellwethers. The evidence on these outside drivers is conditional rather than conclusive.