SI-BONE, Inc. (SIBN)

NASDAQHealth CareMedical - DevicesSnapshot 2026-10-23

$21.48-0.37%

Close 2026-10-23 · 1-day change

Investment OutlookAs of Oct 24, 2026

What could strengthen or challenge SI-BONE, Inc.’s outlook?

The long-term thesis, the evidence coming in, and the environment around it. Thesis dated Jul 8, 2026.

Higher potential upsideImproving expectations

Next-FY EPS estimate change · 30 days

Comparable estimates unavailable

+10% or more+5%0%−5%−10% or less

A matching fiscal period and sufficient coverage are required.

Higher risk of downsideWeakening expectations

One observable signal. This measures changing earnings expectations, not the probability of a gain or loss.

How this is measured

The calculation requires same-period, same-provider snapshots, positive EPS, at least five analysts and a baseline within three days of the requested lookback.

Measure / period	Management expectations	Analyst expectations
FY 2026 · Q4
Revenue	—	68.23M
EPS	—	-0.081
FY 2026 · Annual
Revenue	$231M–$233M	232.12M
EPS	—	-0.397
FY 2027 · Annual
Revenue	—	268.43M
EPS	—	-0.328

What the Thesis Depends On

Three published thesis conditions, with dated milestones shown separately.

Key Factor	Why It Matters	Current Status	Break Condition	Latest Evidence
Gross margin stays near 79%	Gross margin stays strong near 79%.	Intact	Gross margin falls below 75% in FY26	Gross margin: 79.54% FY2026-Q2; GAAP. Published target: 79%. Target period is not explicitly aligned with this observation. Source published Aug 4, 202679.535797 percent · calculatedSource reportLast status assessment Oct 24, 2026 Measurement source consolidated · GAAP FY2026-Q2 · Period ending Jun 30, 2026 Source: company_financial_results. Reference: e0def722-2ebe-4d93-90b3-5f5dc6227ac5. Source status: eligible. Compare required operating outcomes Compare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement.
Operating income improves toward -$5.09 million	Operating income is improving, cutting losses from -$7.48M to -$5.09M.	Intact	Operating income worsens below -$7M in 2026-Q1	Operating income: $-4.806M FY2026-Q2; GAAP. Published target: >= -$5.09M. The stored target says 2026-Q1; this source reports FY2026-Q2. Fiscal/calendar alignment needs review. Source published Aug 4, 2026-4,806,000 USD · source valueSource reportLast status assessment Oct 24, 2026 Measurement source consolidated · GAAP FY2026-Q2 · Period ending Jun 30, 2026 Source: company_financial_results. Reference: e0def722-2ebe-4d93-90b3-5f5dc6227ac5. Source status: eligible. Compare required operating outcomes Compare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement.
Revenue grows to about $231.5 million	A primary condition in SI-BONE, Inc.'s published investment case. The stated target is ~$231.5M.	Intact	Revenue falls below $200M in FY26	Revenue: $56.01M FY2026-Q2; GAAP. Published target: ~$231.5M. Target period is not explicitly aligned with this observation. Source published Aug 4, 202656,010,000 USD · source valueSource reportLast status assessment Oct 24, 2026 Measurement source consolidated · GAAP FY2026-Q2 · Period ending Jun 30, 2026 Source: company_financial_results. Reference: e0def722-2ebe-4d93-90b3-5f5dc6227ac5. Source status: eligible. Compare required operating outcomes Compare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement.

Stored thesis · Jul 8, 2026. Latest Evidence uses source-matched measurements where available, alongside the last thesis-monitor assessment. Source periods and assessment dates are shown separately. A new measurement does not automatically change the published status or verify an older target.

Incoming Evidence

Compare these dated observations with the operating requirements above

Expectations trend

Same fiscal period

FY2027 · fiscal year ending 2027-12-31 · fmp

FY2027 EPS$-0.33

$-0.36 → $-0.33 · observed estimates

FY2027 revenue$0.27B

$0.27B → $0.27B · observed estimates

Exact estimates & source dates

One fiscal period and provider throughout. At least five contributors are required for each plotted metric; missing coverage stays a gap. Axes show the observed range. Counts measure coverage, not revisions.

FY2027 estimate observations · fmp
Snapshot	EPS	Revenue	EPS / revenue analysts
2026-07-24	$-0.36	$266,612,288	6 / 6
2026-07-25	$-0.35	$266,634,620	7 / 8
2026-07-26	$-0.35	$266,634,620	7 / 8
2026-07-27	$-0.35	$266,634,620	7 / 8
2026-07-28	$-0.36	$266,612,288	6 / 6
2026-07-29	$-0.34	$267,643,360	8 / 9
2026-07-30	$-0.36	$266,612,288	6 / 6
2026-07-31	$-0.35	$267,623,515	6 / 6
2026-08-01	$-0.35	$267,623,515	6 / 6
2026-08-02	$-0.34	$267,643,360	8 / 9
2026-08-03	$-0.34	$267,643,360	8 / 9
2026-08-04	$-0.34	$268,456,818	6 / 6
2026-08-05	$-0.34	$267,643,360	8 / 9
2026-08-06	$-0.34	$268,171,770	8 / 9
2026-08-08	$-0.33	$268,441,280	8 / 9
2026-08-09	$-0.34	$268,441,279	6 / 6
2026-08-10	$-0.33	$268,441,280	8 / 9
2026-08-12	$-0.34	$268,441,279	6 / 6
2026-08-13	$-0.34	$268,441,279	6 / 6
2026-08-14	$-0.34	$268,441,279	6 / 6
2026-08-15	$-0.34	$268,441,279	6 / 6
2026-08-16	$-0.34	$268,441,279	6 / 6
2026-08-17	$-0.34	$268,441,279	6 / 6
2026-08-18	$-0.34	$268,441,279	6 / 6
2026-08-19	$-0.34	$268,441,279	6 / 6
2026-08-20	$-0.34	$268,441,279	6 / 6
2026-08-21	$-0.33	$268,441,279	6 / 6
2026-08-22	$-0.33	$268,441,501	6 / 6
2026-08-23	$-0.33	$268,441,501	6 / 6
2026-08-24	$-0.33	$268,441,501	6 / 6
2026-08-25	$-0.33	$268,441,501	6 / 6
2026-08-26	$-0.33	$268,441,501	6 / 6
2026-08-27	$-0.33	$268,441,501	6 / 6
2026-08-28	$-0.33	$268,441,501	6 / 6
2026-08-29	$-0.33	$268,441,501	6 / 6
2026-08-30	$-0.33	$268,441,501	6 / 6
2026-08-31	$-0.33	$268,441,501	6 / 6
2026-09-01	$-0.33	$268,441,501	6 / 6
2026-09-02	$-0.33	$268,441,501	6 / 6
2026-09-03	$-0.33	$268,441,501	6 / 6
2026-09-04	$-0.33	$268,441,501	6 / 6
2026-09-05	$-0.33	$268,441,501	6 / 6
2026-09-06	$-0.33	$268,441,501	6 / 6
2026-09-07	$-0.33	$268,441,501	6 / 6
2026-09-08	$-0.33	$268,441,501	6 / 6
2026-09-09	$-0.33	$268,441,501	6 / 6
2026-09-10	$-0.33	$268,441,501	6 / 6
2026-09-11	$-0.33	$268,441,501	6 / 6
2026-09-12	$-0.33	$268,441,501	6 / 6
2026-09-13	$-0.33	$268,441,501	6 / 6
2026-09-14	$-0.33	$268,441,501	6 / 6
2026-09-15	$-0.33	$268,441,279	6 / 6
2026-09-16	$-0.33	$268,441,279	6 / 6
2026-09-17	$-0.33	$268,441,279	6 / 6
2026-09-18	$-0.33	$268,441,279	6 / 6
2026-09-19	$-0.33	$268,441,279	6 / 6
2026-09-20	$-0.33	$268,441,279	6 / 6
2026-09-21	$-0.33	$268,441,279	6 / 6
2026-09-22	$-0.33	$268,441,279	6 / 6
2026-09-23	$-0.33	$268,441,279	6 / 6
2026-09-24	$-0.33	$268,441,279	6 / 6
2026-09-25	$-0.33	$268,441,279	6 / 6
2026-09-26	$-0.33	$268,441,279	6 / 6
2026-09-27	$-0.33	$268,441,279	6 / 6
2026-09-28	$-0.33	$268,441,279	6 / 6
2026-09-29	$-0.33	$268,441,279	6 / 6
2026-09-30	$-0.33	$268,441,279	6 / 6
2026-10-01	$-0.33	$268,441,279	6 / 6
2026-10-02	$-0.33	$268,441,279	6 / 6
2026-10-03	$-0.33	$268,441,279	6 / 6
2026-10-04	$-0.33	$268,441,279	6 / 6
2026-10-05	$-0.33	$268,441,279	6 / 6
2026-10-06	$-0.33	$268,441,279	6 / 6
2026-10-07	$-0.33	$268,441,279	6 / 6
2026-10-08	$-0.33	$268,441,279	6 / 6
2026-10-09	$-0.33	$268,441,279	6 / 6
2026-10-10	$-0.33	$268,441,279	6 / 6
2026-10-11	$-0.33	$268,441,279	6 / 6
2026-10-12	$-0.33	$268,441,279	6 / 6
2026-10-13	$-0.33	$268,441,279	6 / 6
2026-10-14	$-0.33	$268,441,279	6 / 6
2026-10-15	$-0.33	$268,430,055	6 / 6
2026-10-16	$-0.33	$268,430,055	6 / 6
2026-10-17	$-0.33	$268,430,055	6 / 6
2026-10-18	$-0.33	$268,430,055	6 / 6
2026-10-19	$-0.33	$268,430,055	6 / 6
2026-10-20	$-0.33	$268,430,055	6 / 6
2026-10-21	$-0.33	$268,430,055	6 / 6
2026-10-22	$-0.33	$268,430,055	6 / 6
2026-10-23	$-0.33	$268,430,055	6 / 6
2026-10-24	$-0.33	$268,430,055	6 / 6

Revenue and EPS estimates track expectations. They are not delivered results or like-for-like proof of a required annual path.

Compare required revenue and earnings

Analyst view

Monthly observations

Buy / Strong BuyHoldSell / Strong Sell

Exact monthly counts

Monthly rating snapshots · fmp. Missing snapshots are not zero.
Date	Buy*	Hold	Sell*
2026-05-01	8	0	0
2026-06-01	8	0	0
2026-07-01	9	0	0
2026-08-01	9	0	0
2026-09-01	9	0	0
2026-10-01	9	0	0

*Buy includes Strong Buy; Sell includes Strong Sell. Monthly counts describe the analyst mix, not the firms behind each recent action.

Latest: 9 Buy / Strong Buy · 0 Hold · 0 Sell / Strong Sell

0 upgrades0 downgrades1 maintains

Recent actions · Sep 25–Oct 24 · 1 recorded

Price-target changes

30 days

Individual price-target observations are unavailable.

0 raises · 0 cuts · 0 unchanged · 0 without a comparable prior

How this is measured

Sep 25, 2026–Oct 24, 2026. Each firm's latest positive target is paired only with its immediately prior positive target from the same provider, at most 180 days earlier. Unmatched observations have one dot; conflicting observations are not compared.

Outlook in Brief

The evidence, the remaining questions, and what comes next

What's improving

No recovery evidence is reported in the available driver assessments.

Still unresolved / key risks

Gross margin stays near 79%Gross margin: 79.54%
Operating income improves toward -$5.09 millionOperating income: $-4.806M
Revenue grows to about $231.5 millionRevenue: $56.01M

Next proof point

Nov 2, 2026

Look for updated results and guidance against the published targets, plus direct evidence for unresolved drivers.

Review earnings

Bottom line

3 of 3 published conditions remain under pressure or need verification. The next results need to address those conditions.

The dated weekly assessment and its assumptions are available in Read detailed Outlook.

Historical risk context

Observed price history; separate from operating scenarios

Price sensitivity

1.8%Typical daily move · historical

Downside history

-45.8%Maximum drawdown · trailing year

Read detailed Outlook Company context, assumptions & risks

SI-BONE, Inc. outlook in detail

The weekly editorial context below is a separate assessment from the dated monitor evidence above. Recovery observations do not automatically change the published thesis. Unverified outside influences are hypotheses, not measured driver evidence.

Updated Oct 24, 2026

What kind of bet this is

This is a growth company working toward steady profitability, with a healthcare-sector tailwind but elevated company-specific risk. The multi-year view is still developing: recent results show progress, while performance remains below its industry cohort.

What's priced into SI-BONE, Inc.

The valuation model describes SIBN as trading at a durable premium to peers, with expectations ahead of what the model supports. The overall priced-in assessment is marked justified, and no fragility gates were triggered, but the premium leaves limited room for expectations to weaken.

What the fundamentals likely do

Near term, management’s revenue goal appears on track: first-half revenue rose 15.2%, and 2026 guidance implies 15% to 16% growth. Gross margin has stayed near 79%, while the operating loss narrowed and adjusted EBITDA increased; however, the evidence rates overall recent performance as neutral, and a prior guidance reduction remains relevant.

What SI-BONE, Inc. hinges on

The multi-year thesis depends on revenue growth continuing alongside stable margins and further improvement in operating results. Near term, a guidance increase after the earlier reduction would support the case, while weaker employment data could pressure cyclical healthcare names; continued strength from sector peers would be a positive signal. Recent filings also include an acquisition agreement, a new financial obligation, and litigation, but their implications are not detailed in the evidence.