Sotera Health (SHC)

NASDAQHealth CareMedical - Diagnostics & ResearchSnapshot 2026-10-23

$18.10-0.17%

Close 2026-10-23 · 1-day change

Investment OutlookAs of Oct 24, 2026

What could strengthen or challenge Sotera Health’s outlook?

The long-term thesis, the evidence coming in, and the environment around it. Thesis dated Jul 8, 2026.

Higher potential upsideImproving expectations

Next-FY EPS estimate change · 30 days

0.0%

+10% or more+5%0%−5%−10% or less

1.07 → 1.07 EPS · FY ending Dec 31, 2027 · 5 analysts

Higher risk of downsideWeakening expectations

One observable signal. This measures changing earnings expectations, not the probability of a gain or loss.

How this is measured

Change in the same fiscal period’s mean EPS estimate from Sep 24, 2026 to Oct 24, 2026: (new ÷ prior − 1). Contributor count changed from 5 to 5; this is not the number of analysts revising. Source: FMP consensus snapshots. The ±10% axis is a display range.

Measure / period	Management expectations	Analyst expectations
FY 2026 · Q4
Revenue	—	325.57M
EPS	—	0.275
FY 2026 · Annual
Revenue	$1.24B–$1.25B	1.25B
EPS	$0.93–$1.01non-GAAP	0.984
Capital expenditure	$200M–$225Mnon-GAAP	—
EBITDA	$634M–$643Mnon-GAAP	—
Revenue growth	5.25%–6.75%	—
FY 2027 · Annual
Revenue	—	1.32B
EPS	—	1.075

What the Thesis Depends On

4 published thesis conditions, with dated milestones shown separately.

Key Factor	Why It Matters	Current Status	Break Condition	Latest Evidence
Maintain improved capital allocation with refinancing	It improved capital allocation by refinancing debt at lower costs.	Intact	Capital costs rise or refinancing benefits reverse	Qualitative condition This condition has no defined numerical measure. Context reviewed through Oct 23, 2026Last status assessment Oct 24, 2026Compare required operating outcomes Compare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement.
Achieve EPS near $0.97 in FY26	The company keeps earnings near $1.00 per share in 2026.	Intact	EPS falls below $0.81 per share in FY26	Diluted EPS: $0.19 per share FY2026-Q2; GAAP. Published target: >= $0.93 per share. Target period is not explicitly aligned with this observation. Source published Aug 6, 20260.19 USD/share · source valueSource reportLast status assessment Oct 24, 2026 Measurement source consolidated · GAAP FY2026-Q2 · Period ending Jun 30, 2026 Source: company_financial_results. Reference: 01cf788b-b513-4c91-b134-33f264efe285. Source status: eligible. Compare required operating outcomes Compare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement.
Successful leadership transition with new CEO	A supporting condition in Sotera Health's published investment case. The stated target is Smooth transition and strategic progress.	Intact	Leadership issues disrupt strategy or execution	Qualitative condition This condition has no defined numerical measure. Context reviewed through Oct 23, 2026Last status assessment Oct 24, 2026Compare required operating outcomes Compare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement. Management context Leadership transition with new CEO was stated in 2 of last 2 quarters. The new CEO expressed confidence in the team and growth strategy. While no direct financial metrics tie to this priority, management has emphasized this transition as key to execution, showing initial delivery. Delivery assessment Oct 24, 2026
Sustain revenue near $1.23B in FY26	A primary condition in Sotera Health's published investment case. The stated target is >= $1.23 billion.	Intact	Revenue falls below $1.16 billion in FY26	Revenue: $321.375M FY2026-Q2; GAAP. Published target: >= $1.23 billion. Target period is not explicitly aligned with this observation. Source published Aug 6, 2026321,375,000 USD · source valueSource reportLast status assessment Oct 24, 2026 Measurement source consolidated · GAAP FY2026-Q2 · Period ending Jun 30, 2026 Source: company_financial_results. Reference: 01cf788b-b513-4c91-b134-33f264efe285. Source status: eligible. Compare required operating outcomes Compare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement.

Stored thesis · Jul 8, 2026. Latest Evidence uses source-matched measurements where available, alongside the last thesis-monitor assessment. Source periods and assessment dates are shown separately. A new measurement does not automatically change the published status or verify an older target.

Incoming Evidence

Compare these dated observations with the operating requirements above

Expectations trend

Same fiscal period

FY2027 · fiscal year ending 2027-12-31 · fmp

FY2027 EPS$1.07

$1.06 → $1.07 · observed estimates

FY2027 revenue$1.32B

$1.31B → $1.32B · observed estimates

Exact estimates & source dates

One fiscal period and provider throughout. At least five contributors are required for each plotted metric; missing coverage stays a gap. Axes show the observed range. Counts measure coverage, not revisions.

FY2027 estimate observations · fmp
Snapshot	EPS	Revenue	EPS / revenue analysts
2026-07-24	$1.06	$1,313,746,343	5 / 6
2026-07-25	$1.06	$1,314,482,390	10 / 9
2026-07-26	$1.06	$1,314,482,390	10 / 9
2026-07-27	$1.06	$1,314,482,390	10 / 9
2026-07-28	$1.06	$1,314,482,390	10 / 9
2026-07-29	$1.06	$1,314,482,390	10 / 9
2026-07-30	$1.06	$1,313,746,343	5 / 6
2026-07-31	$1.06	$1,314,482,390	10 / 9
2026-08-01	$1.06	$1,313,746,343	5 / 6
2026-08-02	$1.06	$1,314,482,390	10 / 9
2026-08-03	$1.06	$1,313,746,343	5 / 6
2026-08-04	$1.06	$1,314,482,390	10 / 9
2026-08-05	$1.06	$1,314,482,390	10 / 9
2026-08-06	$1.06	$1,313,746,343	5 / 6
2026-08-08	$1.07	$1,319,901,020	10 / 9
2026-08-09	$1.07	$1,319,901,020	10 / 9
2026-08-10	$1.07	$1,319,901,020	10 / 9
2026-08-12	$1.06	$1,313,746,345	5 / 6
2026-08-13	$1.07	$1,320,938,470	10 / 9
2026-08-14	$1.06	$1,313,746,345	5 / 6
2026-08-15	$1.06	$1,313,746,345	5 / 6
2026-08-16	$1.06	$1,313,746,345	5 / 6
2026-08-17	$1.06	$1,313,746,345	5 / 6
2026-08-18	$1.06	$1,313,746,345	5 / 6
2026-08-19	$1.06	$1,313,746,345	5 / 6
2026-08-20	$1.07	$1,320,918,145	5 / 6
2026-08-21	$1.07	$1,320,918,145	5 / 6
2026-08-22	$1.07	$1,320,918,145	5 / 6
2026-08-23	$1.07	$1,320,918,145	5 / 6
2026-08-24	$1.07	$1,320,918,145	5 / 6
2026-08-25	$1.07	$1,320,918,145	5 / 6
2026-08-26	$1.07	$1,320,918,145	5 / 6
2026-08-27	$1.07	$1,320,918,145	5 / 6
2026-08-28	$1.07	$1,320,918,145	5 / 6
2026-08-29	$1.07	$1,320,918,145	5 / 6
2026-08-30	$1.07	$1,320,918,145	5 / 6
2026-08-31	$1.07	$1,320,918,145	5 / 6
2026-09-01	$1.07	$1,320,918,145	5 / 6
2026-09-02	$1.07	$1,320,918,145	5 / 6
2026-09-03	$1.07	$1,320,918,145	5 / 6
2026-09-04	$1.07	$1,320,918,145	5 / 6
2026-09-05	$1.07	$1,320,918,145	5 / 6
2026-09-06	$1.07	$1,320,918,145	5 / 6
2026-09-07	$1.07	$1,320,918,145	5 / 6
2026-09-08	$1.07	$1,320,918,145	5 / 6
2026-09-09	$1.07	$1,320,918,145	5 / 6
2026-09-10	$1.07	$1,320,918,145	5 / 6
2026-09-11	$1.07	$1,320,918,145	5 / 6
2026-09-12	$1.07	$1,320,918,145	5 / 6
2026-09-13	$1.07	$1,320,918,145	5 / 6
2026-09-14	$1.07	$1,320,918,145	5 / 6
2026-09-15	$1.07	$1,320,918,145	5 / 6
2026-09-16	$1.07	$1,320,918,145	5 / 6
2026-09-17	$1.07	$1,320,918,145	5 / 6
2026-09-18	$1.07	$1,320,918,145	5 / 6
2026-09-19	$1.07	$1,320,918,145	5 / 6
2026-09-20	$1.07	$1,320,918,145	5 / 6
2026-09-21	$1.07	$1,320,918,145	5 / 6
2026-09-22	$1.07	$1,320,918,145	5 / 6
2026-09-23	$1.07	$1,320,918,145	5 / 7
2026-09-24	$1.07	$1,320,918,145	5 / 7
2026-09-25	$1.07	$1,320,918,145	5 / 7
2026-09-26	$1.07	$1,320,918,145	5 / 7
2026-09-27	$1.07	$1,320,918,145	5 / 7
2026-09-28	$1.07	$1,320,918,145	5 / 7
2026-09-29	$1.07	$1,320,918,145	5 / 7
2026-09-30	$1.07	$1,320,918,145	5 / 7
2026-10-01	$1.07	$1,320,918,145	5 / 7
2026-10-02	$1.07	$1,320,918,145	5 / 7
2026-10-03	$1.07	$1,320,918,145	5 / 7
2026-10-04	$1.07	$1,320,918,145	5 / 7
2026-10-05	$1.07	$1,320,918,145	5 / 7
2026-10-06	$1.07	$1,320,918,145	5 / 7
2026-10-07	$1.08	$1,320,919,256	5 / 7
2026-10-08	$1.08	$1,320,919,256	5 / 7
2026-10-09	$1.08	$1,320,919,256	5 / 7
2026-10-10	$1.08	$1,320,919,256	5 / 7
2026-10-11	$1.08	$1,320,919,256	5 / 7
2026-10-12	$1.08	$1,320,919,256	5 / 7
2026-10-13	$1.08	$1,320,919,256	5 / 7
2026-10-14	$1.08	$1,320,919,256	5 / 7
2026-10-15	$1.07	$1,320,487,262	5 / 7
2026-10-16	$1.07	$1,320,487,262	5 / 7
2026-10-17	$1.07	$1,320,487,262	5 / 7
2026-10-18	$1.07	$1,320,487,262	5 / 7
2026-10-19	$1.07	$1,320,487,262	5 / 7
2026-10-20	$1.07	$1,320,487,262	5 / 7
2026-10-21	$1.07	$1,320,487,262	5 / 7
2026-10-22	$1.07	$1,320,487,262	5 / 7
2026-10-23	$1.07	$1,320,487,262	5 / 7
2026-10-24	$1.07	$1,320,487,262	5 / 7

Revenue and EPS estimates track expectations. They are not delivered results or like-for-like proof of a required annual path.

Compare required revenue and earnings

Analyst view

Monthly observations

Buy / Strong BuyHoldSell / Strong Sell

Exact monthly counts

Monthly rating snapshots · fmp. Missing snapshots are not zero.
Date	Buy*	Hold	Sell*
2026-05-01	8	2	0
2026-06-01	9	2	0
2026-07-01	8	2	0
2026-08-01	8	2	0
2026-09-01	8	2	0
2026-10-01	8	2	1

*Buy includes Strong Buy; Sell includes Strong Sell. Monthly counts describe the analyst mix, not the firms behind each recent action.

Latest: 8 Buy / Strong Buy · 2 Hold · 1 Sell / Strong Sell

0 upgrades1 downgrades0 maintains

Recent actions · Sep 25–Oct 24 · 1 recorded

Price-target changes

30 days

Individual price-target observations are unavailable.

0 raises · 0 cuts · 0 unchanged · 0 without a comparable prior

How this is measured

Sep 25, 2026–Oct 24, 2026. Each firm's latest positive target is paired only with its immediately prior positive target from the same provider, at most 180 days earlier. Unmatched observations have one dot; conflicting observations are not compared.

Outlook in Brief

The evidence, the remaining questions, and what comes next

What's improving

No recovery evidence is reported in the available driver assessments.

Still unresolved / key risks

Maintain improved capital allocation with refinancingQualitative condition
Achieve EPS near $0.97 in FY26Diluted EPS: $0.19 per share
Successful leadership transition with new CEOQualitative condition
Sustain revenue near $1.23B in FY26Revenue: $321.375M

Next proof point

Nov 3, 2026

Look for updated results and guidance against the published targets, plus direct evidence for unresolved drivers.

Review earnings

Bottom line

4 of 4 published conditions remain under pressure or need verification. The next results need to address those conditions.

The dated weekly assessment and its assumptions are available in Read detailed Outlook.

Historical risk context

Observed price history; separate from operating scenarios

Price sensitivity

1.1%Typical daily move · historical

Downside history

-32.1%Maximum drawdown · trailing year

Read detailed Outlook Company context, assumptions & risks

Sotera Health outlook in detail

The weekly editorial context below is a separate assessment from the dated monitor evidence above. Recovery observations do not automatically change the published thesis. Unverified outside influences are hypotheses, not measured driver evidence.

Updated Oct 24, 2026

What kind of bet this is

SHC is a steady-growth healthcare business with robust earnings quality and strong recent performance. Its multi-year view remains intact, but the signal has softened from favorable to mildly favorable, and the new CEO’s execution is still being watched.

What's priced into Sotera Health

The evidence labels valuation as stretched, despite also describing SHC as cheap versus peers, so the relative valuation picture is mixed. Expectations appear elevated, while the low fragility rating suggests no specific fragility warning has been triggered.

What the fundamentals likely do

Near term, management’s raised 2026 outlook points to continued revenue and adjusted EBITDA growth, following a recent earnings beat. Higher capital spending and the CEO transition need monitoring, while a guidance reversal or weaker demand could challenge execution.

What Sotera Health hinges on

Over the next few quarters, the key test is whether management sustains growth and avoids cutting its recently raised guidance. A weakening jobs trend could pressure cyclical healthcare businesses, while continued strength from sector peers could support the broader healthcare backdrop.