Star Holdings (SGU)

NYSEEnergyOil & Gas Refining & MarketingSnapshot 2026-10-23

$13.15+1.31%

Close 2026-10-23 · 1-day change

Investment OutlookAs of Oct 24, 2026

What could strengthen or challenge Star Holdings’s outlook?

The long-term thesis, the evidence coming in, and the environment around it. Thesis dated Jul 8, 2026.

Higher potential upsideImproving expectations

Next-FY EPS estimate change · 30 days

Comparable estimates unavailable

+10% or more+5%0%−5%−10% or less

A matching fiscal period and sufficient coverage are required.

Higher risk of downsideWeakening expectations

One observable signal. This measures changing earnings expectations, not the probability of a gain or loss.

How this is measured

The calculation requires same-period, same-provider snapshots, positive EPS, at least five analysts and a baseline within three days of the requested lookback.

Measure / period	Management expectations	Analyst expectations
Annual ending 2027-09-30
Revenue	—	1.32B
EPS	—	0.55
Annual ending 2028-09-30
Revenue	—	1.54B
EPS	—	0.83

Management figures unavailable.

What the Thesis Depends On

4 published thesis conditions, with dated milestones shown separately.

Key Factor	Why It Matters	Current Status	Break Condition	Latest Evidence
Net income at least $108 million in 2026-Q2	Net income grew from $36 million to $108 million.	Intact	Net income falls below $70 million in any quarter next year	Net income: $-27.989M FY2026-Q3; GAAP. Published target: >=108.3 million USD. The stored target says 2026-Q2; this source reports FY2026-Q3. Fiscal/calendar alignment needs review. Source published Aug 5, 2026-27,989,000 USD · source valueSource reportLast status assessment Oct 24, 2026 Measurement source consolidated · GAAP FY2026-Q3 · Period ending Jun 30, 2026 Source: company_financial_results. Reference: e37fabb2-76b1-43df-977b-66006f0e2b6c. Source status: eligible. Compare required operating outcomes Compare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement.
Operating income at least $157 million in 2026-Q2	Operating income rose from $54 million to $157 million in one quarter.	Intact	Operating income falls below $100 million in any quarter next year	Operating income: $-34.073M FY2026-Q3; GAAP. Published target: >=157.2 million USD. The stored target says 2026-Q2; this source reports FY2026-Q3. Fiscal/calendar alignment needs review. Source published Aug 5, 2026-34,073,000 USD · source valueSource reportLast status assessment Oct 24, 2026 Measurement source consolidated · GAAP FY2026-Q3 · Period ending Jun 30, 2026 Source: company_financial_results. Reference: e37fabb2-76b1-43df-977b-66006f0e2b6c. Source status: eligible. Compare required operating outcomes Compare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement.
Revenue decline no worse than -4% next 12 months	A supporting condition in Star Holdings's published investment case. The stated target is >=-4% YoY.	Intact	Revenue decline exceeds -6% YoY next year	Revenue growth: 17.16% FY2026-Q3; GAAP. Published target: >=-4% YoY. Target period is not explicitly aligned with this observation. Source published Aug 5, 202617.162929 percent · calculatedSource reportLast status assessment Oct 24, 2026 Measurement source consolidated · GAAP FY2026-Q3 · Period ending Jun 30, 2026 Source: company_financial_results. Reference: e37fabb2-76b1-43df-977b-66006f0e2b6c. Source status: eligible. Compare required operating outcomes Compare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement.
Repurchase up to 2 million common units as authorized	A supporting condition in Star Holdings's published investment case. The stated target is Repurchase authorization effective from Feb 24, 2026.	Intact	No buybacks executed by end of 2026	Authorization effective Feb 24, 2026 vs target Feb 24, 2026 Board authorized 2.0 million unit repurchase effective Feb 24, 2026. No buyback execution data reported in recent news. Context reviewed through Oct 23, 2026Last status assessment Oct 24, 2026Compare required operating outcomes Compare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement.

Stored thesis · Jul 8, 2026. Latest Evidence uses source-matched measurements where available, alongside the last thesis-monitor assessment. Source periods and assessment dates are shown separately. A new measurement does not automatically change the published status or verify an older target.

Incoming Evidence

Compare these dated observations with the operating requirements above

Expectations trend

Same fiscal period

FY2028 · fiscal year ending 2028-09-30 · fmp

FY2028 EPS: comparable history unavailable.

FY2028 revenue: comparable history unavailable.

Exact estimates & source dates

One fiscal period and provider throughout. At least five contributors are required for each plotted metric; missing coverage stays a gap. Axes show the observed range. Counts measure coverage, not revisions.

FY2028 estimate observations · fmp
Snapshot	EPS	Revenue	EPS / revenue analysts
2026-10-01	Unavailable	Unavailable	1 / 1
2026-10-02	Unavailable	Unavailable	1 / 1
2026-10-03	Unavailable	Unavailable	1 / 1
2026-10-04	Unavailable	Unavailable	1 / 1
2026-10-05	Unavailable	Unavailable	1 / 1
2026-10-06	Unavailable	Unavailable	1 / 1
2026-10-07	Unavailable	Unavailable	1 / 1
2026-10-08	Unavailable	Unavailable	1 / 1
2026-10-09	Unavailable	Unavailable	1 / 1
2026-10-10	Unavailable	Unavailable	1 / 1
2026-10-11	Unavailable	Unavailable	1 / 1
2026-10-12	Unavailable	Unavailable	1 / 1
2026-10-13	Unavailable	Unavailable	1 / 1
2026-10-14	Unavailable	Unavailable	1 / 1
2026-10-15	Unavailable	Unavailable	1 / 1
2026-10-16	Unavailable	Unavailable	1 / 1
2026-10-17	Unavailable	Unavailable	1 / 1
2026-10-18	Unavailable	Unavailable	1 / 1
2026-10-19	Unavailable	Unavailable	1 / 1
2026-10-20	Unavailable	Unavailable	1 / 1
2026-10-21	Unavailable	Unavailable	1 / 1
2026-10-22	Unavailable	Unavailable	1 / 1
2026-10-23	Unavailable	Unavailable	1 / 1
2026-10-24	Unavailable	Unavailable	1 / 1

Revenue and EPS estimates track expectations. They are not delivered results or like-for-like proof of a required annual path.

Compare required revenue and earnings

Analyst view

Monthly observations

Monthly analyst history is unavailable.

0 upgrades0 downgrades0 maintains

Recent actions · Sep 25–Oct 24 · 0 recorded

Price-target changes

30 days

Individual price-target observations are unavailable.

0 raises · 0 cuts · 0 unchanged · 0 without a comparable prior

How this is measured

Sep 25, 2026–Oct 24, 2026. Each firm's latest positive target is paired only with its immediately prior positive target from the same provider, at most 180 days earlier. Unmatched observations have one dot; conflicting observations are not compared.

Outlook in Brief

The evidence, the remaining questions, and what comes next

What's improving

No recovery evidence is reported in the available driver assessments.

Still unresolved / key risks

Net income at least $108 million in 2026-Q2Net income: $-27.989M
Operating income at least $157 million in 2026-Q2Operating income: $-34.073M
Revenue decline no worse than -4% next 12 monthsRevenue growth: 17.16%

Next proof point

Dec 14, 2026

Look for updated results and guidance against the published targets, plus direct evidence for unresolved drivers.

Review earnings

Bottom line

3 of 4 published conditions remain under pressure or need verification. The next results need to address those conditions.

The dated weekly assessment and its assumptions are available in Read detailed Outlook.

Historical risk context

Observed price history; separate from operating scenarios

Price sensitivity

0.5%Typical daily move · historical

Downside history

-8.2%Maximum drawdown · trailing year

Read detailed Outlook Company context, assumptions & risks

Star Holdings outlook in detail

The weekly editorial context below is a separate assessment from the dated monitor evidence above. Recovery observations do not automatically change the published thesis. Unverified outside influences are hypotheses, not measured driver evidence.

Updated Oct 24, 2026

What kind of bet this is

SGU is an operational-improvement story with exposure to the energy sector, rather than a clearly established durable compounder. The thesis is in a watch state, with low confidence, elevated risk, and fragile earnings quality.

What's priced into Star Holdings

SGU is described as cheap versus peers, and the current pricing tag says its fragility is justified rather than fully overlooked. The evidence does not support a precise view of what expectations the market assumes, and confidence in the valuation model is low.

What the fundamentals likely do

Near term, results show limited progress on improving operations: 2026-Q3 revenue was $358.1 million alongside a $34.1 million operating loss. Services and installation revenue rose to $91.1 million from $89.5 million a year earlier, while management’s operating-improvement and acquisition priorities have mixed evidence of delivery.

What Star Holdings hinges on

A guidance cut on the next call would be a meaningful setback, especially given erratic earnings surprises and SGU’s smaller size. Over the multi-year view, execution on operations and services growth matters, while energy-sector support depends partly on whether MPC, VLO, and PSX keep reporting strong results and guidance.

Bottom line

For the next 1 to 3 years, SGU’s thesis rests on turning management’s recurring priorities into stronger operating results while navigating elevated risk; the evidence remains mixed and confidence is low. Not investment advice.

Not investment advice. Scores describe historical and current data; they are not forecasts of future returns. Consult a licensed advisor before making investment decisions.