Stifel (SF)

NYSEFinancialsFinancial - Capital MarketsSnapshot 2026-10-23

$66.68-1.72%

Close 2026-10-23 · 1-day change

Investment OutlookAs of Oct 24, 2026

What could strengthen or challenge Stifel’s outlook?

The long-term thesis, the evidence coming in, and the environment around it. Thesis dated Jul 8, 2026.

Higher potential upsideImproving expectations

Next-FY EPS estimate change · 30 days

-2.6%

+10% or more+5%0%−5%−10% or less

7.51 → 7.31 EPS · FY ending Dec 31, 2027 · 5 analysts

Higher risk of downsideWeakening expectations

One observable signal. This measures changing earnings expectations, not the probability of a gain or loss.

How this is measured

Change in the same fiscal period’s mean EPS estimate from Sep 24, 2026 to Oct 24, 2026: (new ÷ prior − 1). Contributor count changed from 5 to 5; this is not the number of analysts revising. Source: FMP consensus snapshots. The ±10% axis is a display range.

Measure / period	Management expectations	Analyst expectations
Quarter ending 2026-12-30
Revenue	—	1.58B
EPS	—	1.912
Quarter ending 2027-03-31
Revenue	—	1.55B
EPS	—	1.618
Annual ending 2026-12-31
Revenue	—	5.91B
EPS	—	6.23
Annual ending 2027-12-31
Revenue	—	6.47B
EPS	—	7.308

Management figures unavailable.

What the Thesis Depends On

4 published thesis conditions, with dated milestones shown separately.

Key Factor	Why It Matters	Current Status	Break Condition	Latest Evidence
Grow total client assets and fee-based assets	Client assets increased 7.6% recently, showing strong demand.	Intact	Client assets growth falls below 5% over next 6 months	Direct metric needs a verified mapping The published measure or accounting basis is not supported by an exact source binding. Source date unavailableLast status assessment Oct 24, 2026Compare required operating outcomes Compare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement. Management context Stated in 3 supplied earnings quarters. Global Wealth Management revenue reached $980.3 million versus $907.4 million, and client assets were $576.5 billion, up 6% year over year. The asset and segment revenue gains are substantive delivery on the stated growth priority. Delivery assessment Oct 24, 2026
Maintain dividend per share at $0.34 or higher	The company keeps paying dividends at $0.34 per share.	Intact	Dividend per share falls below $0.30 next year	Dividend per share: $0.34 per share FY2026-Q2; GAAP. Published target: >= $0.34 dividend per share. The stored target says 2026-Q1; this source reports FY2026-Q2. Fiscal/calendar alignment needs review. Source published Aug 5, 20260.34 USD/share · source valueSource reportLast status assessment Oct 24, 2026 Measurement source consolidated · GAAP FY2026-Q2 · Period ending Jun 30, 2026 Source: company_financial_results. Reference: 868729cf-2f64-4aab-8f20-4bce94312c6b. Source status: eligible. Compare required operating outcomes Compare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement.
Achieve EPS of at least $6.76 in 2026	The company keeps paying dividends at $0.34 per share.	Under Pressure	EPS falls below $6.0 in 2026	Diluted EPS: $1.34 per share FY2026-Q2; GAAP. Published target: >= $6.76 EPS. Target period ends 2026-12-31; this observation covers 2026-Q2. Source published Aug 5, 20261.34 USD/share · source valueSource reportLast status assessment Oct 24, 2026 Measurement source consolidated · GAAP FY2026-Q2 · Period ending Jun 30, 2026 Source: company_financial_results. Reference: 868729cf-2f64-4aab-8f20-4bce94312c6b. Source status: eligible. Compare required operating outcomes Compare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement.
Increase revenue by 30%-40% vs 2025-Q1	A primary condition in Stifel's published investment case. The stated target is >=30% YoY revenue growth vs 2025-Q1.	Broken	YoY revenue growth falls below 17% next year	Revenue growth: 9.91% FY2026-Q2; GAAP. Published target: >=30% YoY revenue growth vs 2025-Q1. The stored target says 2026-Q1; this source reports FY2026-Q2. Fiscal/calendar alignment needs review. Source published Aug 5, 20269.905062 percent · calculatedSource reportLast status assessment Oct 24, 2026 Measurement source consolidated · GAAP FY2026-Q2 · Period ending Jun 30, 2026 Source: company_financial_results. Reference: 868729cf-2f64-4aab-8f20-4bce94312c6b. Source status: eligible. Compare required operating outcomes Compare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement.

Stored thesis · Jul 8, 2026. Latest Evidence uses source-matched measurements where available, alongside the last thesis-monitor assessment. Source periods and assessment dates are shown separately. A new measurement does not automatically change the published status or verify an older target.

Incoming Evidence

Compare these dated observations with the operating requirements above

Expectations trend

Same fiscal period

FY2027 · fiscal year ending 2027-12-31 · fmp

FY2027 EPS$7.31

$7.05 → $7.31 · observed estimates

FY2027 revenueUnavailable

$6.53B → Unavailable · observed estimates

Exact estimates & source dates

One fiscal period and provider throughout. At least five contributors are required for each plotted metric; missing coverage stays a gap. Axes show the observed range. Counts measure coverage, not revisions.

FY2027 estimate observations · fmp
Snapshot	EPS	Revenue	EPS / revenue analysts
2026-07-24	$7.05	$6,530,602,280	8 / 7
2026-07-25	$7.28	$6,589,878,040	8 / 7
2026-07-26	$7.28	$6,589,878,040	8 / 7
2026-07-27	$7.28	$6,589,878,040	8 / 7
2026-07-28	$7.46	$6,646,456,850	5 / 5
2026-07-29	$7.51	Unavailable	5 / 4
2026-07-30	$7.51	Unavailable	5 / 4
2026-07-31	$7.51	Unavailable	5 / 4
2026-08-01	$7.51	Unavailable	5 / 4
2026-08-02	$7.33	$6,535,669,260	8 / 5
2026-08-03	$7.33	$6,535,669,260	8 / 5
2026-08-04	$7.33	$6,535,669,260	8 / 5
2026-08-05	$7.33	$6,535,669,260	8 / 5
2026-08-06	$7.33	$6,535,669,260	8 / 5
2026-08-08	$7.51	Unavailable	5 / 4
2026-08-09	$7.51	Unavailable	5 / 4
2026-08-10	$7.51	Unavailable	5 / 4
2026-08-12	$7.51	Unavailable	5 / 4
2026-08-13	$7.33	$6,535,669,260	8 / 5
2026-08-14	$7.51	Unavailable	5 / 4
2026-08-15	$7.51	Unavailable	5 / 4
2026-08-16	$7.51	Unavailable	5 / 4
2026-08-17	$7.51	Unavailable	5 / 4
2026-08-18	$7.51	Unavailable	5 / 4
2026-08-19	$7.51	Unavailable	5 / 4
2026-08-20	$7.51	Unavailable	5 / 4
2026-08-21	$7.51	Unavailable	5 / 4
2026-08-22	$7.51	Unavailable	5 / 4
2026-08-23	$7.51	Unavailable	5 / 4
2026-08-24	$7.51	Unavailable	5 / 4
2026-08-25	$7.51	Unavailable	5 / 4
2026-08-26	$7.51	Unavailable	5 / 4
2026-08-27	$7.51	Unavailable	5 / 4
2026-08-28	$7.51	Unavailable	5 / 4
2026-08-29	$7.51	Unavailable	5 / 4
2026-08-30	$7.51	Unavailable	5 / 4
2026-08-31	$7.51	Unavailable	5 / 4
2026-09-01	$7.51	Unavailable	5 / 4
2026-09-02	$7.51	Unavailable	5 / 4
2026-09-03	$7.51	Unavailable	5 / 4
2026-09-04	$7.51	Unavailable	5 / 4
2026-09-05	$7.51	Unavailable	5 / 4
2026-09-06	$7.51	Unavailable	5 / 4
2026-09-07	$7.51	Unavailable	5 / 4
2026-09-08	$7.51	Unavailable	5 / 4
2026-09-09	$7.51	Unavailable	5 / 4
2026-09-10	$7.51	Unavailable	5 / 4
2026-09-11	$7.51	Unavailable	5 / 4
2026-09-12	$7.51	Unavailable	5 / 4
2026-09-13	$7.51	Unavailable	5 / 4
2026-09-14	$7.51	Unavailable	5 / 4
2026-09-15	$7.51	Unavailable	5 / 4
2026-09-16	$7.51	Unavailable	5 / 4
2026-09-17	$7.51	Unavailable	5 / 4
2026-09-18	$7.51	Unavailable	5 / 4
2026-09-19	$7.51	Unavailable	5 / 4
2026-09-20	$7.51	Unavailable	5 / 4
2026-09-21	$7.51	Unavailable	5 / 4
2026-09-22	$7.51	Unavailable	5 / 4
2026-09-23	$7.51	Unavailable	5 / 4
2026-09-24	$7.51	Unavailable	5 / 4
2026-09-25	$7.51	Unavailable	5 / 4
2026-09-26	$7.51	Unavailable	5 / 4
2026-09-27	$7.51	Unavailable	5 / 4
2026-09-28	$7.51	Unavailable	5 / 4
2026-09-29	$7.51	Unavailable	5 / 4
2026-09-30	$7.51	Unavailable	5 / 4
2026-10-01	$7.51	Unavailable	5 / 4
2026-10-02	$7.51	Unavailable	5 / 4
2026-10-03	$7.51	Unavailable	5 / 4
2026-10-04	$7.46	Unavailable	5 / 4
2026-10-05	$7.45	Unavailable	5 / 4
2026-10-06	$7.45	Unavailable	5 / 4
2026-10-07	$7.41	Unavailable	5 / 4
2026-10-08	$7.41	$6,553,110,503	5 / 5
2026-10-09	$7.41	$6,553,110,503	5 / 5
2026-10-10	$7.41	$6,553,110,503	5 / 5
2026-10-11	$7.41	$6,545,037,836	5 / 5
2026-10-12	$7.41	$6,545,037,836	5 / 5
2026-10-13	$7.37	$6,545,037,836	5 / 5
2026-10-14	$7.37	Unavailable	5 / 4
2026-10-15	$7.37	Unavailable	5 / 4
2026-10-16	$7.37	Unavailable	5 / 4
2026-10-17	$7.37	Unavailable	5 / 4
2026-10-18	$7.37	Unavailable	5 / 4
2026-10-19	$7.37	Unavailable	5 / 4
2026-10-20	$7.37	Unavailable	5 / 4
2026-10-21	$7.37	Unavailable	5 / 4
2026-10-22	$7.29	Unavailable	5 / 4
2026-10-23	$7.29	Unavailable	5 / 4
2026-10-24	$7.31	Unavailable	5 / 4

Revenue and EPS estimates track expectations. They are not delivered results or like-for-like proof of a required annual path.

Compare required revenue and earnings

Analyst view

Monthly observations

Buy / Strong BuyHoldSell / Strong Sell

Exact monthly counts

Monthly rating snapshots · fmp. Missing snapshots are not zero.
Date	Buy*	Hold
2026-05-01	3	5
2026-06-01	4	5
2026-07-01	4	5
2026-08-01	3	5
2026-09-01	3	5
2026-10-01	4	5

*Buy includes Strong Buy; Sell includes Strong Sell. Monthly counts describe the analyst mix, not the firms behind each recent action.

Latest: 4 Buy / Strong Buy · 5 Hold · 0 Sell / Strong Sell

0 upgrades0 downgrades6 maintains

Recent actions · Sep 25–Oct 24 · 6 recorded

Price-target changes

30 days

○ Previous · ● Latest · common dollar scale

UBSOct 22 · prior Oct 7

$84.00 → $83.00-1.2%

Capital One FinancialOct 6

$75.00New observation · no comparable prior

$0$46.20$92.40

0 raises · 1 cuts · 0 unchanged · 1 without a comparable prior

How this is measured

Sep 25, 2026–Oct 24, 2026. Each firm's latest positive target is paired only with its immediately prior positive target from the same provider, at most 180 days earlier. Unmatched observations have one dot; conflicting observations are not compared.

Outlook in Brief

The evidence, the remaining questions, and what comes next

What's improving

No recovery evidence is reported in the available driver assessments.

Still unresolved / key risks

Grow total client assets and fee-based assetsDirect metric needs a verified mapping
Maintain dividend per share at $0.34 or higherDividend per share: $0.34 per share
Achieve EPS of at least $6.76 in 2026Published status: Under Pressure
Increase revenue by 30%-40% vs 2025-Q1Published status: Broken

Next proof point

Next earnings date unavailable

Look for updated results and guidance against the published targets, plus direct evidence for unresolved drivers.

Review earnings

Bottom line

4 of 4 published conditions remain under pressure or need verification. The next results need to address those conditions.

The dated weekly assessment and its assumptions are available in Read detailed Outlook.

Historical risk context

Observed price history; separate from operating scenarios

Price sensitivity

0.9%Typical daily move · historical

Downside history

-25.3%Maximum drawdown · trailing year

Read detailed Outlook Company context, assumptions & risks

Stifel outlook in detail

The weekly editorial context below is a separate assessment from the dated monitor evidence above. Recovery observations do not automatically change the published thesis. Unverified outside influences are hypotheses, not measured driver evidence.

Updated Oct 24, 2026

What kind of bet this is

SF is a financials business with a mixed, execution-dependent profile rather than a clear-cut durable compounder. The long-term thesis is intact: recent performance is strong, but earnings quality remains fragile and revenue growth is uneven.

What's priced into Stifel

The evidence describes SF as cheap versus peers, while the priced-in assessment says current expectations are justified and fragility is low. The expectations gap is slightly negative, so the evidence does not point to a large cushion from expectations being set too low.

What the fundamentals likely do

Near term, three recent quarterly earnings beats and a sharp improvement in company momentum support the business picture, though the most recent quarter was also noted as a miss in the risk assessment. Over the multi-year view, wealth revenue and client assets are growing, but weaker Institutional Group revenue makes overall delivery mixed. Management priorities are on track, while fragile earnings quality and a headwind from the sector remain risks.

What Stifel hinges on

A guidance cut on the next call would be a meaningful negative, especially given the history of estimates being walked down after cuts. The sector setup also depends on interest rates and financial peers: rate cuts could weigh on the group, while continued strong results and higher guidance from MS, GS, and SCHW would support sector momentum.