Solaris Energy Infrastructure, Inc. (SEI)

NYSEEnergyOil & Gas Equipment & ServicesSnapshot 2026-10-23

$58.74+0.22%

Close 2026-10-23 · 1-day change

Investment OutlookAs of Oct 24, 2026

What could strengthen or challenge Solaris Energy Infrastructure, Inc.’s outlook?

The long-term thesis, the evidence coming in, and the environment around it. Thesis dated Jul 8, 2026.

Higher potential upsideImproving expectations

Next-FY EPS estimate change · 30 days

Comparable estimates unavailable

+10% or more+5%0%−5%−10% or less

A matching fiscal period and sufficient coverage are required.

Higher risk of downsideWeakening expectations

One observable signal. This measures changing earnings expectations, not the probability of a gain or loss.

How this is measured

The calculation requires same-period, same-provider snapshots, positive EPS, at least five analysts and a baseline within three days of the requested lookback.

Measure / period	Management expectations	Analyst expectations
FY 2026 · Q3
EBITDA	$90M–$105Mnon-GAAP	—
FY 2026 · Q4
Revenue	—	329.19M
EPS	—	0.487
FY 2026 · Annual
Revenue	—	989.35M
EPS	—	1.584
FY 2027 · Annual
Revenue	—	1.76B
EPS	—	3.526

What the Thesis Depends On

Three published thesis conditions, with dated milestones shown separately.

Key Factor	Why It Matters	Current Status	Break Condition	Latest Evidence
Adjusted EBITDA of at least $83 million in Q2 2026	Solaris raised Q2 EBITDA guidance to $83-93 million.	Intact	Adjusted EBITDA falls below $83 million in Q2 2026	Direct metric needs a verified mapping The published measure or accounting basis is not supported by an exact source binding. Source date unavailableLast status assessment Oct 24, 2026Compare required operating outcomes Compare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement. Management context Stated as a priority in 3 of last 3 quarters. Management raised Adjusted EBITDA guidance from $76-84 million in 2025-Q4 to $83-93 million in 2026-Q2, then to $90-105 million for 2026-Q3 and $100-120 million for 2026-Q4. The trajectory shows consistent upward revisions, delivering on growth expectations. Delivery assessment Oct 24, 2026
Manage debt and equity issuance without hurting financial health	A supporting condition in Solaris Energy Infrastructure, Inc.'s published investment case. The stated target is Maintain stable leverage and no further large equity dilution.	Under Pressure	Additional large debt or equity raises that weaken balance sheet	$1.25B debt issued vs stable leverage target SEI priced $1.25B senior notes at 7% in Sept 2026, constituting a large debt raise that breaches the stability target. Context reviewed through Oct 23, 2026Last status assessment Oct 24, 2026Compare required operating outcomes Compare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement.
Revenue growth of about 46% in the next 12 months	A primary condition in Solaris Energy Infrastructure, Inc.'s published investment case. The stated target is >= 46.6% YoY.	Broken	Revenue growth falls below 40% in the next 12 months	Direct metric needs a verified mapping The published measure or accounting basis is not supported by an exact source binding. Source date unavailableLast status assessment Oct 24, 2026Compare required operating outcomes Compare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement.

Stored thesis · Jul 8, 2026. Latest Evidence uses source-matched measurements where available, alongside the last thesis-monitor assessment. Source periods and assessment dates are shown separately. A new measurement does not automatically change the published status or verify an older target.

Incoming Evidence

Compare these dated observations with the operating requirements above

Expectations trend

Same fiscal period

FY2027 · fiscal year ending 2027-12-31 · fmp

FY2027 EPS$3.53

$2.50 → $3.53 · observed estimates

FY2027 revenue$1.76B

$1.25B → $1.76B · observed estimates

Exact estimates & source dates

One fiscal period and provider throughout. At least five contributors are required for each plotted metric; missing coverage stays a gap. Axes show the observed range. Counts measure coverage, not revisions.

FY2027 estimate observations · fmp
Snapshot	EPS	Revenue	EPS / revenue analysts
2026-07-24	$2.50	$1,245,633,480	8 / 9
2026-07-25	$2.53	$1,231,890,710	5 / 7
2026-07-26	$2.33	$1,226,256,920	8 / 9
2026-07-27	$2.33	$1,226,256,920	8 / 9
2026-07-28	$2.33	$1,226,256,920	8 / 9
2026-07-29	$2.33	$1,226,256,920	8 / 9
2026-07-30	$2.33	$1,226,256,920	8 / 9
2026-07-31	$2.53	$1,231,890,710	6 / 7
2026-08-01	$2.53	$1,231,890,710	6 / 7
2026-08-02	$2.33	$1,226,256,920	8 / 9
2026-08-03	$2.53	$1,231,890,710	6 / 7
2026-08-04	$2.53	$1,231,890,710	6 / 7
2026-08-05	$2.53	$1,231,890,710	6 / 7
2026-08-06	$2.33	$1,226,701,360	8 / 9
2026-08-08	$2.59	$1,238,608,232	6 / 7
2026-08-09	$2.33	$1,226,701,360	8 / 9
2026-08-10	$2.33	$1,226,701,360	8 / 9
2026-08-12	$2.11	$1,267,821,220	10 / 10
2026-08-13	$2.59	$1,238,608,232	6 / 7
2026-08-14	$2.59	$1,238,608,232	6 / 7
2026-08-15	$2.59	$1,238,608,232	6 / 8
2026-08-16	$2.59	$1,238,608,232	6 / 8
2026-08-17	$2.59	$1,238,608,232	6 / 8
2026-08-18	$2.59	$1,238,608,232	6 / 8
2026-08-19	$2.59	$1,238,608,232	6 / 8
2026-08-20	$2.01	$1,283,307,027	6 / 8
2026-08-21	$1.96	$1,298,156,653	6 / 8
2026-08-22	$1.96	$1,298,156,653	6 / 8
2026-08-23	$1.96	$1,298,156,653	6 / 8
2026-08-24	$1.96	$1,298,156,653	6 / 8
2026-08-25	$1.93	$1,298,677,249	6 / 8
2026-08-26	$1.93	$1,298,677,249	6 / 8
2026-08-27	$1.93	$1,298,677,249	6 / 8
2026-08-28	$1.93	$1,298,677,249	6 / 8
2026-08-29	$1.93	$1,296,498,766	6 / 8
2026-08-30	$1.93	$1,296,498,766	6 / 8
2026-08-31	$1.93	$1,296,498,766	7 / 9
2026-09-01	$1.93	$1,296,498,766	7 / 9
2026-09-02	$1.93	$1,296,498,766	7 / 9
2026-09-03	$1.93	$1,296,498,766	7 / 9
2026-09-04	$1.93	$1,298,365,433	7 / 9
2026-09-05	$1.93	$1,298,365,433	7 / 9
2026-09-06	$1.93	$1,298,365,433	7 / 9
2026-09-07	$1.93	$1,298,365,433	7 / 9
2026-09-08	$1.93	$1,298,365,433	7 / 9
2026-09-09	$2.08	$1,315,045,433	7 / 9
2026-09-10	$2.08	$1,346,245,433	6 / 5
2026-09-11	$2.08	$1,346,245,433	6 / 5
2026-09-12	Unavailable	Unavailable	4 / 2
2026-09-13	Unavailable	Unavailable	4 / 2
2026-09-14	Unavailable	Unavailable	4 / 2
2026-09-15	Unavailable	Unavailable	4 / 2
2026-09-16	Unavailable	Unavailable	4 / 3
2026-09-17	Unavailable	Unavailable	4 / 3
2026-09-18	Unavailable	Unavailable	4 / 3
2026-09-19	Unavailable	Unavailable	4 / 3
2026-09-20	Unavailable	Unavailable	3 / 2
2026-09-21	Unavailable	Unavailable	3 / 2
2026-09-22	Unavailable	Unavailable	3 / 2
2026-09-23	Unavailable	Unavailable	3 / 2
2026-09-24	Unavailable	Unavailable	3 / 2
2026-09-25	Unavailable	Unavailable	3 / 2
2026-09-26	Unavailable	Unavailable	4 / 4
2026-09-27	$3.39	$1,636,823,227	5 / 5
2026-09-28	$3.39	$1,636,823,227	5 / 5
2026-09-29	$3.39	$1,636,823,227	5 / 5
2026-09-30	$3.39	$1,636,823,227	5 / 5
2026-10-01	$3.47	$1,667,660,974	5 / 5
2026-10-02	$3.47	$1,667,660,974	5 / 5
2026-10-03	$3.40	$1,664,761,507	5 / 5
2026-10-04	$3.40	$1,664,761,507	5 / 5
2026-10-05	$3.40	$1,664,754,841	5 / 5
2026-10-06	$3.40	$1,664,754,841	5 / 5
2026-10-07	$3.40	$1,664,754,841	5 / 5
2026-10-08	$3.40	$1,664,754,841	5 / 5
2026-10-09	$3.24	$1,664,745,507	5 / 5
2026-10-10	$3.24	$1,664,745,507	5 / 5
2026-10-11	$3.32	$1,695,145,507	5 / 5
2026-10-12	$3.32	$1,695,145,507	5 / 5
2026-10-13	$3.32	$1,695,145,507	5 / 5
2026-10-14	$3.29	$1,700,998,841	5 / 5
2026-10-15	$3.29	$1,700,998,841	5 / 5
2026-10-16	$3.29	$1,700,998,841	5 / 5
2026-10-17	$3.29	$1,700,998,841	5 / 5
2026-10-18	$3.29	$1,700,998,841	5 / 5
2026-10-19	$3.29	$1,700,998,841	5 / 5
2026-10-20	$3.29	$1,698,932,174	5 / 5
2026-10-21	$3.39	$1,740,065,576	5 / 5
2026-10-22	$3.53	$1,760,269,525	5 / 6
2026-10-23	$3.53	$1,760,269,525	5 / 6
2026-10-24	$3.53	$1,760,269,525	5 / 6

Revenue and EPS estimates track expectations. They are not delivered results or like-for-like proof of a required annual path.

Compare required revenue and earnings

Analyst view

Monthly observations

Buy / Strong BuyHoldSell / Strong Sell

Exact monthly counts

Monthly rating snapshots · fmp. Missing snapshots are not zero.
Date	Buy*	Hold
2026-05-01	11	1
2026-06-01	12	1
2026-07-01	13	1
2026-08-01	14	1
2026-09-01	14	0
2026-10-01	14	0

*Buy includes Strong Buy; Sell includes Strong Sell. Monthly counts describe the analyst mix, not the firms behind each recent action.

Latest: 14 Buy / Strong Buy · 0 Hold · 0 Sell / Strong Sell

0 upgrades0 downgrades2 maintains

Recent actions · Sep 25–Oct 24 · 2 recorded

Price-target changes

30 days

○ Previous · ● Latest · common dollar scale

Morgan StanleyOct 21 · prior Jun 4

$90.00 → $102.00+13.3%

BarclaysSep 28 · prior Aug 10

$90.00 → $116.00+28.9%

Wells FargoSep 25 · prior Aug 3

$73.00 → $85.00+16.4%

$0$63.80$127.60

3 raises · 0 cuts · 0 unchanged · 0 without a comparable prior

How this is measured

Sep 25, 2026–Oct 24, 2026. Each firm's latest positive target is paired only with its immediately prior positive target from the same provider, at most 180 days earlier. Unmatched observations have one dot; conflicting observations are not compared.

Outlook in Brief

The evidence, the remaining questions, and what comes next

What's improving

No recovery evidence is reported in the available driver assessments.

Still unresolved / key risks

Adjusted EBITDA of at least $83 million in Q2 2026Direct metric needs a verified mapping
Manage debt and equity issuance without hurting financial healthPublished status: Under Pressure
Revenue growth of about 46% in the next 12 monthsPublished status: Broken

Next proof point

Nov 4, 2026

Look for updated results and guidance against the published targets, plus direct evidence for unresolved drivers.

Review earnings

Bottom line

3 of 3 published conditions remain under pressure or need verification. The next results need to address those conditions.

The dated weekly assessment and its assumptions are available in Read detailed Outlook.

Historical risk context

Observed price history; separate from operating scenarios

Price sensitivity

3.8%Typical daily move · historical

Downside history

-47.6%Maximum drawdown · trailing year

Read detailed Outlook Company context, assumptions & risks

Solaris Energy Infrastructure, Inc. outlook in detail

The weekly editorial context below is a separate assessment from the dated monitor evidence above. Recovery observations do not automatically change the published thesis. Unverified outside influences are hypotheses, not measured driver evidence.

Updated Oct 24, 2026

What kind of bet this is

This is a high-risk, growth-oriented energy business with a strong recent financial performance and a sector tailwind. Its multi-year view is intact, though management volatility and uneven execution keep the evidence mixed.

What's priced into Solaris Energy Infrastructure, Inc.

SEI trades at a premium to peers, while the expectations gap is negative, suggesting the market’s assumptions may be demanding. The pricing signal is classified as justified, with low fragility, so the evidence does not point to a clearly overheated setup.

What the fundamentals likely do

Near term, recent performance is strong and management has repeatedly raised Adjusted EBITDA guidance, supporting the operating case. GESA integration and power capacity expansion are progressing, but evidence is mixed, and erratic earnings results leave a meaningful risk of a miss or guidance cut.

What Solaris Energy Infrastructure, Inc. hinges on

The multi-year thesis depends on continued delivery against higher guidance, successful integration of GESA, and growth in power capacity and long-term contracts. In the near term, a guidance cut would weaken the case, while results and guidance from energy bellwethers such as SLB, BKR, and HAL will signal whether the sector tailwind persists.