SolarEdge (SEDG)

NASDAQInformation TechnologySolarSnapshot 2026-10-23

$33.32+1.15%

Close 2026-10-23 · 1-day change

Investment OutlookAs of Oct 24, 2026

What could strengthen or challenge SolarEdge’s outlook?

The long-term thesis, the evidence coming in, and the environment around it. Thesis dated Jul 8, 2026.

Higher potential upsideImproving expectations

Next-FY EPS estimate change · 30 days

-4.9%

+10% or more+5%0%−5%−10% or less

0.85 → 0.81 EPS · FY ending Dec 31, 2027 · 14 analysts

Higher risk of downsideWeakening expectations

One observable signal. This measures changing earnings expectations, not the probability of a gain or loss.

How this is measured

Change in the same fiscal period’s mean EPS estimate from Sep 24, 2026 to Oct 24, 2026: (new ÷ prior − 1). Contributor count changed from 15 to 14; this is not the number of analysts revising. Source: FMP consensus snapshots. The ±10% axis is a display range.

Measure / period	Management expectations	Analyst expectations
FY 2026 · Q3
Revenue	$310M–$340M	—
Gross margin	22%–26%non-GAAP	—
Operating expenses	$86M–$91Mnon-GAAP	—
FY 2026 · Q4
Revenue	—	321.35M
EPS	—	-0.022
FY 2026 · Annual
Revenue	—	1.3B
EPS	—	-0.382
FY 2027 · Annual
Revenue	—	1.43B
EPS	—	0.807

What the Thesis Depends On

4 published thesis conditions, with dated milestones shown separately.

Key Factor	Why It Matters	Current Status	Break Condition	Latest Evidence
Stable CFO leadership	A supporting condition in SolarEdge's published investment case. The stated target is No unexpected CFO departures over next 4 quarters.	Under Pressure	CFO resigns or leaves unexpectedly	CFO departed (Alperovitz) vs No unexpected departures CFO Asaf Alperovitz stepped down in June 2026; Maoz Sigron appointed as successor. Context reviewed through Oct 23, 2026Last status assessment Oct 24, 2026Compare required operating outcomes Compare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement.
Gross margin near 25% next quarter	Gross margin improved to about 25% guided for next quarter.	Improving	gross margin falls below 20% next quarter	Gross margin: 27.48% FY2026-Q2; GAAP. Published target: ~25%. The target does not explicitly identify fiscal versus calendar quarters. Source published Aug 5, 202627.481119 percent · calculatedSource reportLast status assessment Oct 24, 2026 Measurement source consolidated · GAAP FY2026-Q2 · Period ending Jun 30, 2026 Source: company_financial_results. Reference: 2050bc20-374b-4437-ad35-96c76d17adb0. Source status: eligible. Compare required operating outcomes Compare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement. Management context Stated as a priority in 3 of last 3 quarters. Non-GAAP gross margin improved significantly from 13.1% in 2025-Q2 to 28.6% in 2026-Q2, marking six consecutive quarters of expansion. This trajectory matches management’s focus on margin improvement and shows clear delivery. Delivery assessment Oct 24, 2026
Operating expenses remain near $88.5 million next quarter	Gross margin improved to about 25% guided for next quarter.	Intact	operating expenses rise above $91 million next quarter	Direct metric needs a verified mapping The published measure or accounting basis is not supported by an exact source binding. Source date unavailableLast status assessment Oct 24, 2026Compare required operating outcomes Compare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement.
Revenue reaches at least $340 million next quarter	Gross margin improved to about 25% guided for next quarter.	Under Pressure	revenue falls below $325 million next quarter	Revenue: $346.245M FY2026-Q2; GAAP. Published target: >= $340 million. The target does not explicitly identify fiscal versus calendar quarters. Source published Aug 5, 2026346,245,000 USD · source valueSource reportLast status assessment Oct 24, 2026 Measurement source consolidated · GAAP FY2026-Q2 · Period ending Jun 30, 2026 Source: company_financial_results. Reference: 2050bc20-374b-4437-ad35-96c76d17adb0. Source status: eligible. Compare required operating outcomes Compare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement. Management context Stated as a priority in 3 of last 3 quarters. While management consistently highlights advancing the AI data-center power roadmap, no direct financial metrics are provided. The company’s improving revenue and margin trends suggest progress, but specific delivery on AI roadmap milestones is not quantified. Delivery assessment Oct 24, 2026

Stored thesis · Jul 8, 2026. Latest Evidence uses source-matched measurements where available, alongside the last thesis-monitor assessment. Source periods and assessment dates are shown separately. A new measurement does not automatically change the published status or verify an older target.

Incoming Evidence

Compare these dated observations with the operating requirements above

Expectations trend

Same fiscal period

FY2027 · fiscal year ending 2027-12-31 · fmp

FY2027 EPS$0.81

$1.57 → $0.81 · observed estimates

FY2027 revenue$1.43B

$1.56B → $1.43B · observed estimates

Exact estimates & source dates

One fiscal period and provider throughout. At least five contributors are required for each plotted metric; missing coverage stays a gap. Axes show the observed range. Counts measure coverage, not revisions.

FY2027 estimate observations · fmp
Snapshot	EPS	Revenue	EPS / revenue analysts
2026-07-24	$1.57	$1,557,484,900	22 / 22
2026-07-25	$1.57	$1,563,058,437	14 / 17
2026-07-26	$1.56	$1,555,670,660	22 / 22
2026-07-27	$1.56	$1,555,670,660	22 / 22
2026-07-28	$1.56	$1,561,395,390	14 / 17
2026-07-29	$1.56	$1,555,670,660	22 / 22
2026-07-30	$1.56	$1,555,670,660	22 / 22
2026-07-31	$1.56	$1,555,670,660	22 / 22
2026-08-01	$1.56	$1,561,395,390	14 / 17
2026-08-02	$1.56	$1,561,395,390	14 / 17
2026-08-03	$1.56	$1,561,395,390	14 / 17
2026-08-04	$1.56	$1,561,395,390	14 / 17
2026-08-05	$1.56	$1,561,395,390	14 / 17
2026-08-06	$1.50	$1,536,109,460	21 / 22
2026-08-08	$1.08	$1,496,354,710	23 / 23
2026-08-09	$1.08	$1,496,354,710	23 / 23
2026-08-10	$1.08	$1,496,354,710	23 / 23
2026-08-12	$1.04	$1,491,999,230	23 / 23
2026-08-13	$1.04	$1,491,999,230	23 / 23
2026-08-14	$1.05	$1,494,644,953	13 / 18
2026-08-15	$1.05	$1,494,644,953	13 / 18
2026-08-16	$1.05	$1,494,644,953	14 / 18
2026-08-17	$1.05	$1,494,644,953	14 / 18
2026-08-18	$1.05	$1,494,644,953	14 / 18
2026-08-19	$1.05	$1,494,644,953	14 / 18
2026-08-20	$0.98	$1,473,273,626	15 / 18
2026-08-21	$0.98	$1,473,273,626	15 / 18
2026-08-22	$0.98	$1,473,273,626	15 / 18
2026-08-23	$0.98	$1,473,273,626	14 / 18
2026-08-24	$0.98	$1,473,273,626	14 / 18
2026-08-25	$0.98	$1,473,273,626	14 / 18
2026-08-26	$0.98	$1,473,273,626	14 / 17
2026-08-27	$0.98	$1,473,273,626	14 / 17
2026-08-28	$0.98	$1,473,273,626	14 / 17
2026-08-29	$0.95	$1,466,687,496	15 / 17
2026-08-30	$0.95	$1,466,687,496	15 / 17
2026-08-31	$0.95	$1,466,687,496	15 / 17
2026-09-01	$0.95	$1,466,687,496	15 / 17
2026-09-02	$0.95	$1,466,687,496	15 / 17
2026-09-03	$0.95	$1,466,687,496	15 / 17
2026-09-04	$0.95	$1,466,687,496	15 / 17
2026-09-05	$0.95	$1,466,687,496	15 / 17
2026-09-06	$0.95	$1,466,687,496	15 / 17
2026-09-07	$0.95	$1,466,687,496	15 / 17
2026-09-08	$0.95	$1,466,687,496	15 / 17
2026-09-09	$0.95	$1,466,687,496	15 / 17
2026-09-10	$0.95	$1,466,687,496	15 / 17
2026-09-11	$0.96	$1,466,296,191	15 / 17
2026-09-12	$0.86	$1,447,455,191	15 / 17
2026-09-13	$0.86	$1,447,455,191	15 / 17
2026-09-14	$0.86	$1,447,455,191	15 / 17
2026-09-15	$0.86	$1,447,455,191	15 / 17
2026-09-16	$0.86	$1,447,455,191	15 / 17
2026-09-17	$0.86	$1,447,455,191	15 / 17
2026-09-18	$0.86	$1,447,455,191	15 / 17
2026-09-19	$0.86	$1,447,455,191	15 / 17
2026-09-20	$0.87	$1,450,549,268	14 / 17
2026-09-21	$0.87	$1,450,549,268	14 / 17
2026-09-22	$0.85	$1,447,566,566	14 / 17
2026-09-23	$0.85	$1,447,566,566	15 / 17
2026-09-24	$0.85	$1,447,566,566	15 / 17
2026-09-25	$0.85	$1,447,566,566	15 / 17
2026-09-26	$0.85	$1,447,566,566	15 / 17
2026-09-27	$0.85	$1,447,566,566	15 / 17
2026-09-28	$0.85	$1,447,566,566	15 / 17
2026-09-29	$0.85	$1,447,566,566	15 / 17
2026-09-30	$0.85	$1,447,566,566	15 / 17
2026-10-01	$0.85	$1,447,566,566	15 / 17
2026-10-02	$0.83	$1,445,523,088	15 / 17
2026-10-03	$0.83	$1,445,523,088	15 / 17
2026-10-04	$0.83	$1,447,269,592	15 / 17
2026-10-05	$0.83	$1,447,269,592	14 / 17
2026-10-06	$0.83	$1,447,269,592	14 / 17
2026-10-07	$0.82	$1,444,960,501	14 / 17
2026-10-08	$0.80	$1,434,048,316	14 / 17
2026-10-09	$0.80	$1,434,048,316	14 / 17
2026-10-10	$0.80	$1,434,021,044	14 / 17
2026-10-11	$0.80	$1,434,021,044	14 / 17
2026-10-12	$0.80	$1,434,021,044	14 / 17
2026-10-13	$0.80	$1,434,021,044	14 / 17
2026-10-14	$0.80	$1,434,021,044	14 / 17
2026-10-15	$0.82	$1,432,556,673	14 / 17
2026-10-16	$0.82	$1,432,556,673	14 / 17
2026-10-17	$0.82	$1,432,556,673	14 / 17
2026-10-18	$0.82	$1,432,556,673	14 / 17
2026-10-19	$0.82	$1,432,556,673	14 / 17
2026-10-20	$0.81	$1,430,250,047	14 / 17
2026-10-21	$0.81	$1,430,250,047	14 / 17
2026-10-22	$0.81	$1,430,250,047	14 / 17
2026-10-23	$0.81	$1,430,250,047	14 / 17
2026-10-24	$0.81	$1,430,250,047	14 / 17

Revenue and EPS estimates track expectations. They are not delivered results or like-for-like proof of a required annual path.

Compare required revenue and earnings

Analyst view

Monthly observations

Buy / Strong BuyHoldSell / Strong Sell

Exact monthly counts

Monthly rating snapshots · fmp. Missing snapshots are not zero.
Date	Buy*	Hold	Sell*
2026-05-01	1	21	4
2026-06-01	1	21	4
2026-07-01	1	21	4
2026-08-01	2	21	4
2026-09-01	3	19	4
2026-10-01	3	19	4

*Buy includes Strong Buy; Sell includes Strong Sell. Monthly counts describe the analyst mix, not the firms behind each recent action.

Latest: 3 Buy / Strong Buy · 19 Hold · 4 Sell / Strong Sell

0 upgrades0 downgrades4 maintains

Recent actions · Sep 25–Oct 24 · 4 recorded

Price-target changes

30 days

○ Previous · ● Latest · common dollar scale

BMO CapitalOct 21

$28.00New observation · no comparable prior

SusquehannaOct 14 · prior Aug 6

$38.00 → $32.00-15.8%

$0$20.90$41.80

0 raises · 1 cuts · 0 unchanged · 1 without a comparable prior

How this is measured

Sep 25, 2026–Oct 24, 2026. Each firm's latest positive target is paired only with its immediately prior positive target from the same provider, at most 180 days earlier. Unmatched observations have one dot; conflicting observations are not compared.

Outlook in Brief

The evidence, the remaining questions, and what comes next

What's improving

No recovery evidence is reported in the available driver assessments.

Still unresolved / key risks

Stable CFO leadershipPublished status: Under Pressure
Gross margin near 25% next quarterGross margin: 27.48%
Operating expenses remain near $88.5 million next quarterDirect metric needs a verified mapping
Revenue reaches at least $340 million next quarterPublished status: Under Pressure

Next proof point

Nov 4, 2026

Look for updated results and guidance against the published targets, plus direct evidence for unresolved drivers.

Review earnings

Bottom line

4 of 4 published conditions remain under pressure or need verification. The next results need to address those conditions.

The dated weekly assessment and its assumptions are available in Read detailed Outlook.

Historical risk context

Observed price history; separate from operating scenarios

Price sensitivity

3.4%Typical daily move · historical

Downside history

-62.0%Maximum drawdown · trailing year

Read detailed Outlook Company context, assumptions & risks

SolarEdge outlook in detail

The weekly editorial context below is a separate assessment from the dated monitor evidence above. Recovery observations do not automatically change the published thesis. Unverified outside influences are hypotheses, not measured driver evidence.

Updated Oct 24, 2026

What kind of bet this is

This is a recovery-oriented clean-energy technology business, not a proven durable compounder at present. The long-term thesis is on watch: revenue and margins have improved, while recent performance remains weak and the signal has turned cautious.

What's priced into SolarEdge

The valuation evidence is mixed and low confidence: SEDG is described as cheap versus peers, yet the snapshot also reports a 37% premium versus peers. The negative expectations gap suggests the market has limited expectations, but the evidence does not show that the business is priced for a clear recovery.

What the fundamentals likely do

Near term, consecutive earnings misses and a 51% estimated miss probability make execution a key risk, especially if guidance is cut at the next call. Over the multi-year view, revenue rose sequentially and year over year in 2026-Q2, while non-GAAP gross margin expanded for six straight quarters; Nexis revenue progress is on track, but AI data-center roadmap delivery is not quantified.

What SolarEdge hinges on

The thesis depends on whether revenue growth and margin improvement continue and whether management delivers measurable progress on its AI data-center roadmap. Near term, another guidance cut would weaken the setup, while lower interest rates or continued strong results from sector peers could support sector momentum.