Charles Schwab Corporation (SCHW)

NYSEFinancialsFinancial - Capital MarketsSnapshot 2026-10-15

$91.96-2.34%

Close 2026-10-16 · 1-day change

Read the published Living FV report summary

Investment OutlookAs of Oct 15, 2026

What could strengthen or challenge Charles Schwab Corporation’s outlook?

The long-term thesis, the evidence coming in, and the environment around it. Thesis dated Jul 8, 2026.

Higher potential upsideImproving expectations

Next-FY EPS estimate change · 30 days

+2.4%

+10% or more+5%0%−5%−10% or less

7.88 → 8.07 EPS · FY ending Dec 31, 2027 · 17 analysts

Higher risk of downsideWeakening expectations

One observable signal. This measures changing earnings expectations, not the probability of a gain or loss.

How this is measured

Change in the same fiscal period’s mean EPS estimate from Sep 15, 2026 to Oct 15, 2026: (new ÷ prior − 1). Contributor count changed from 15 to 17; this is not the number of analysts revising. Source: FMP consensus snapshots. The ±10% axis is a display range.

Living FV™

Living Fair Value by QuarterlyIQ

A valuation that evolves as the business changes.

A published Living FV snapshot is not available yet. The valuation workflow remains discoverable; a market target cannot supply the missing evidence.

View Living FV report and workflow

What the Thesis Depends On

4 key conditions need to be met for the investment thesis to play out.

Key Factor	Why It Matters	Current Status	Break Condition	Latest Evidence
Sustain record client asset levels	A supporting condition in Charles Schwab Corporation's published investment case. The stated target is Maintain or grow record client assets.	Intact	Client assets decline significantly from record levels	Record Q3 2026 results with new asset inflows Q3 2026 earnings beat driven by new assets and lending growth; AI initiatives reinforce engagement. Context reviewed through Oct 15, 2026Last status assessment Oct 15, 2026Compare required operating outcomes Compare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement.
Achieve record GAAP EPS of $1.37 next quarter	Profit per share is on track to hit a record $1.37 next quarter.	Intact	EPS falls below $1.37 in 2026-Q1	Diluted EPS: $1.54 per share FY2026-Q2; GAAP. Published target: >= $1.37 per share. The stored target says 2026-Q1; this source reports FY2026-Q2. Fiscal/calendar alignment needs review. Source published Aug 7, 20261.54 USD/share · source valueSource reportLast status assessment Oct 15, 2026 Measurement source consolidated · GAAP FY2026-Q2 · Period ending Jun 30, 2026 Source: company_financial_results. Reference: 48639f47-d4d6-45fc-a7ca-6ae234fdf70b. Source status: eligible. Compare required operating outcomes Compare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement.
Maintain competitive fee structure	A supporting condition in Charles Schwab Corporation's published investment case. The stated target is Sustain or improve fee competitiveness.	Intact	Fee cuts materially reduce profit margins	Qualitative condition This condition has no defined numerical measure. Context reviewed through Oct 15, 2026Last status assessment Oct 15, 2026Compare required operating outcomes Compare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement.
Maintain revenue near $23.9B in FY26	A primary condition in Charles Schwab Corporation's published investment case. The stated target is >= $23.9 billion.	Intact	revenue falls below $23.9 billion in FY26	Revenue: $7.072B FY2026-Q2; GAAP. Published target: >= $23.9 billion. Target period is not explicitly aligned with this observation. Source published Aug 7, 20267,072,000,000 USD · source valueSource reportLast status assessment Oct 15, 2026 Measurement source consolidated · GAAP FY2026-Q2 · Period ending Jun 30, 2026 Source: company_financial_results. Reference: 48639f47-d4d6-45fc-a7ca-6ae234fdf70b. Source status: eligible. Compare required operating outcomes Compare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement.

Stored thesis · Jul 8, 2026. Latest Evidence uses source-matched measurements where available, alongside the last thesis-monitor assessment. Source periods and assessment dates are shown separately. A new measurement does not automatically change the published status or verify an older target.

Incoming Evidence

Compare these dated observations with the operating requirements above

Expectations trend

Same fiscal period

FY2027 · fiscal year ending 2027-12-31 · fmp

FY2027 EPS$8.07

$7.69 → $8.07 · observed estimates

FY2027 revenue$32.47B

$31.10B → $32.47B · observed estimates

Exact estimates & source dates

One fiscal period and provider throughout. At least five contributors are required for each plotted metric; missing coverage stays a gap. Axes show the observed range. Counts measure coverage, not revisions.

FY2027 estimate observations · fmp
Snapshot	EPS	Revenue	EPS / revenue analysts
2026-07-24	$7.69	$31,102,775,180	20 / 16
2026-07-25	$7.84	$31,560,553,514	14 / 14
2026-07-26	$7.80	$31,490,076,740	20 / 16
2026-07-27	$7.80	$31,490,076,740	20 / 16
2026-07-28	$7.80	$31,490,076,740	20 / 16
2026-07-29	$7.83	$31,508,973,330	20 / 15
2026-07-30	$7.88	$31,627,939,114	14 / 14
2026-07-31	$7.88	$31,627,939,114	14 / 13
2026-08-01	$7.88	$31,627,939,114	14 / 13
2026-08-02	$7.88	$31,627,939,114	14 / 13
2026-08-03	$7.83	$31,508,973,330	20 / 15
2026-08-04	$7.83	$31,508,973,330	20 / 15
2026-08-05	$7.80	$31,555,912,500	22 / 16
2026-08-06	$7.88	$31,665,119,166	14 / 13
2026-08-08	$7.88	$31,665,119,166	14 / 13
2026-08-09	$7.88	$31,665,119,166	14 / 13
2026-08-10	$7.88	$31,665,119,166	14 / 13
2026-08-12	$7.88	$31,665,119,166	14 / 13
2026-08-13	$7.80	$31,555,912,500	22 / 16
2026-08-14	$7.88	$31,665,119,166	14 / 13
2026-08-15	$7.88	$31,665,119,166	14 / 13
2026-08-16	$7.88	$31,665,119,166	15 / 14
2026-08-17	$7.88	$31,665,119,166	15 / 14
2026-08-18	$7.88	$31,665,119,166	15 / 14
2026-08-19	$7.88	$31,665,119,166	15 / 14
2026-08-20	$7.89	$31,665,145,788	15 / 14
2026-08-21	$7.89	$31,665,139,905	15 / 14
2026-08-22	$7.89	$31,665,139,905	15 / 14
2026-08-23	$7.89	$31,665,139,905	15 / 14
2026-08-24	$7.89	$31,665,139,905	15 / 14
2026-08-25	$7.89	$31,674,845,788	15 / 14
2026-08-26	$7.89	$31,674,845,788	15 / 14
2026-08-27	$7.89	$31,674,845,788	15 / 14
2026-08-28	$7.88	$31,898,028,962	15 / 14
2026-08-29	$7.88	$31,898,028,962	15 / 14
2026-08-30	$7.88	$31,898,028,962	15 / 14
2026-08-31	$7.88	$31,898,028,962	15 / 14
2026-09-01	$7.88	$31,898,028,962	15 / 14
2026-09-02	$7.88	$31,898,028,962	15 / 14
2026-09-03	$7.88	$31,898,028,962	15 / 14
2026-09-04	$7.88	$31,898,028,962	15 / 14
2026-09-05	$7.88	$31,898,028,962	15 / 14
2026-09-06	$7.88	$31,898,028,962	15 / 14
2026-09-07	$7.88	$31,898,028,962	15 / 14
2026-09-08	$7.88	$31,898,028,962	15 / 14
2026-09-09	$7.88	$31,898,028,962	15 / 14
2026-09-10	$7.88	$31,898,028,962	15 / 14
2026-09-11	$7.88	$31,898,028,962	15 / 14
2026-09-12	$7.88	$31,898,028,962	15 / 14
2026-09-13	$7.88	$31,898,028,962	15 / 14
2026-09-14	$7.88	$31,898,028,962	15 / 14
2026-09-15	$7.88	$31,898,028,962	15 / 14
2026-09-16	$7.88	$31,899,403,962	15 / 14
2026-09-17	$7.88	$31,899,403,962	15 / 14
2026-09-18	$7.88	$31,899,403,962	15 / 14
2026-09-19	$7.88	$31,899,403,962	15 / 14
2026-09-20	$7.88	$31,899,403,962	15 / 14
2026-09-21	$7.89	$31,899,403,962	15 / 14
2026-09-22	$7.90	$31,984,218,673	15 / 14
2026-09-23	$7.90	$31,984,218,673	15 / 14
2026-09-24	$7.90	$31,984,218,673	15 / 14
2026-09-25	$7.90	$31,984,218,673	15 / 14
2026-09-26	$7.90	$31,984,218,673	15 / 14
2026-09-27	$7.90	$31,984,218,673	15 / 14
2026-09-28	$7.90	$31,984,218,673	15 / 14
2026-09-29	$7.90	$31,984,218,673	15 / 14
2026-09-30	$7.90	$31,984,218,673	15 / 14
2026-10-01	$7.90	$31,984,218,673	15 / 14
2026-10-02	$7.90	$31,984,218,673	15 / 14
2026-10-03	$7.90	$31,985,852,868	15 / 15
2026-10-04	$7.91	$32,031,343,574	16 / 15
2026-10-05	$7.92	$32,031,343,574	16 / 15
2026-10-06	$7.92	$32,031,343,574	16 / 15
2026-10-07	$7.95	$32,121,859,133	16 / 15
2026-10-08	$7.98	$32,292,275,028	16 / 15
2026-10-09	$7.98	$32,292,275,028	16 / 15
2026-10-10	$8.03	$32,388,776,543	16 / 15
2026-10-11	$8.03	$32,388,776,543	16 / 15
2026-10-12	$8.03	$32,388,776,543	16 / 15
2026-10-13	$8.07	$32,464,344,513	17 / 16
2026-10-14	$8.07	$32,464,344,513	17 / 16
2026-10-15	$8.07	$32,467,900,068	17 / 16

Revenue and EPS estimates track expectations. They are not delivered results or like-for-like proof of a required annual path.

Compare required revenue and earnings

Analyst view

Monthly observations

Buy / Strong BuyHoldSell / Strong Sell

Exact monthly counts

Monthly rating snapshots · fmp. Missing snapshots are not zero.
Date	Buy*	Hold	Sell*
2026-05-01	19	2	1
2026-06-01	19	2	1
2026-07-01	18	3	1
2026-08-01	18	3	1
2026-09-01	18	3	1
2026-10-01	18	5	1

*Buy includes Strong Buy; Sell includes Strong Sell. Monthly counts describe the analyst mix, not the firms behind each recent action.

Latest: 18 Buy / Strong Buy · 5 Hold · 1 Sell / Strong Sell

0 upgrades0 downgrades7 maintains

Recent actions · Sep 16–Oct 15 · 7 recorded

Price-target changes

30 days

○ Previous · ● Latest · common dollar scale

Truist FinancialOct 13

$125.00New observation · no comparable prior

Morgan StanleyOct 9 · prior Jul 27

$136.00 → $141.00+3.7%

UBSOct 7 · prior Aug 3

$135.00 → $113.00-16.3%

BarclaysOct 7 · prior Jul 9

$122.00 → $118.00-3.3%

Loop Capital MarketsOct 5

$95.00New observation · no comparable prior

Wells FargoOct 1

$105.00New observation · no comparable prior

$0$77.55$155.10

1 raises · 2 cuts · 0 unchanged · 3 without a comparable prior

How this is measured

Sep 16, 2026–Oct 15, 2026. Each firm's latest positive target is paired only with its immediately prior positive target from the same provider, at most 180 days earlier. Unmatched observations have one dot; conflicting observations are not compared.

Outlook in Brief

The evidence, the remaining questions, and what comes next

What's improving

No recovery evidence is reported in the available driver assessments.

Still unresolved / key risks

Achieve record GAAP EPS of $1.37 next quarterDiluted EPS: $1.54 per share
Maintain competitive fee structureQualitative condition
Maintain revenue near $23.9B in FY26Revenue: $7.072B

Next proof point

Next earnings date unavailable

Look for updated results and guidance against the published targets, plus direct evidence for unresolved drivers.

Review earnings

Bottom line

3 of 4 published conditions remain under pressure or need verification. The next results need to address those conditions.

The dated weekly assessment and its assumptions are available in Read detailed Outlook.

Historical risk context

Observed price history; separate from operating scenarios

Price sensitivity

1.0%Typical daily move · historical

Downside history

-20.1%Maximum drawdown · trailing year

Read detailed Outlook Company context, assumptions & risks

Charles Schwab Corporation outlook in detail

The weekly editorial context below is a separate assessment from the dated monitor evidence above. Recovery observations do not automatically change the published thesis. Unverified outside influences are hypotheses, not measured driver evidence.

Updated Oct 10, 2026

What kind of bet this is

This investment represents a durable compounder with a focus on client asset growth and diversified revenue. The current thesis state is intact, supported by strong financial performance, but the market is pricing in high expectations.

What's priced into Charles Schwab Corporation

The valuation is considered expensive compared to peers, with a premium of 0.85. The market appears to have already factored in strong earnings and growth potential, leaving little room for error.

What the fundamentals likely do

Management is on track with priorities, including client asset growth and record earnings per share. Recent financial performance has been strong, but there is a moderate risk of missing expectations, especially given recent trends in the sector.

What Charles Schwab Corporation hinges on

The long-term thesis hinges on sector performance, particularly if major financial firms continue to report strong earnings. Additionally, any changes in Federal Reserve interest rate policy could significantly impact SCHW's performance.