Sinclair, Inc. (SBGI)

NASDAQCommunication ServicesBroadcastingSnapshot 2026-10-23

$12.39-3.20%

Close 2026-10-23 · 1-day change

Investment OutlookAs of Oct 24, 2026

What could strengthen or challenge Sinclair, Inc.’s outlook?

The long-term thesis, the evidence coming in, and the environment around it. Thesis dated Jul 8, 2026.

Higher potential upsideImproving expectations

Next-FY EPS estimate change · 30 days

Comparable estimates unavailable

+10% or more+5%0%−5%−10% or less

A matching fiscal period and sufficient coverage are required.

Higher risk of downsideWeakening expectations

One observable signal. This measures changing earnings expectations, not the probability of a gain or loss.

How this is measured

The calculation requires same-period, same-provider snapshots, positive EPS, at least five analysts and a baseline within three days of the requested lookback.

Measure / period	Management expectations	Analyst expectations
FY 2026 · Q4
Revenue	—	995.71M
EPS	—	1.627
FY 2026 · Annual
Revenue	—	3.52B
EPS	—	1.205
Capital expenditure	$75M–$80M	—
FY 2027 · Annual
Revenue	—	3.22B
EPS	—	-1.247

What the Thesis Depends On

Three published thesis conditions, with dated milestones shown separately.

Key Factor	Why It Matters	Current Status	Break Condition	Latest Evidence
Keep capital expenditures below $80 million in 2026	The company keeps capital spending under $80 million.	Intact	capital expenditures exceed $80 million in FY26	Capital expenditures: $20M FY2026-Q2; GAAP. Published target: <= $80 million. Target period is not explicitly aligned with this observation. Source published Aug 5, 202620,000,000 USD · source valueSource reportLast status assessment Oct 24, 2026 Measurement source consolidated · GAAP FY2026-Q2 · Period ending Jun 30, 2026 Source: stock_quarterly_financials_fmp. Reference: 2026-Q2. Source status: unverified. Compare required operating outcomes Compare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement.
Deliver EPS near $1.28 in 2026	A primary condition in Sinclair, Inc.'s published investment case. The stated target is >= $1.28 per share.	Broken	EPS falls below $1.0 in FY26	Diluted EPS: $-1.06 per share FY2026-Q2; GAAP. Published target: >= $1.28 per share. Target period is not explicitly aligned with this observation. Source published Aug 5, 2026-1.06 USD/share · source valueSource reportLast status assessment Oct 24, 2026 Measurement source consolidated · GAAP FY2026-Q2 · Period ending Jun 30, 2026 Source: company_financial_results. Reference: 6d2233b6-c4d4-4de9-929f-8f5a3615f2fe. Source status: eligible. Compare required operating outcomes Compare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement.
Achieve revenue near $3.54 billion in fiscal 2026	Sinclair aims for revenue near $3.54 billion in 2026.	Intact	annual revenue falls below $3.4 billion in FY26	Revenue: $840M FY2026-Q2; GAAP. Published target: ~$3.54 billion. Target period is not explicitly aligned with this observation. Source published Aug 5, 2026840,000,000 USD · source valueSource reportLast status assessment Oct 24, 2026 Measurement source consolidated · GAAP FY2026-Q2 · Period ending Jun 30, 2026 Source: company_financial_results. Reference: 6d2233b6-c4d4-4de9-929f-8f5a3615f2fe. Source status: eligible. Compare required operating outcomes Compare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement. Management context Management reaffirmed full year 2026 financial guidance in 3 of last 3 quarters. Revenue guidance remains steady at $3.4 to $3.54 billion, while Adjusted EBITDA guidance was increased in 2026-Q2 from $700-$740 million to $730-$760 million. The trajectory shows delivery with an upward revision in profitability expectations. Delivery assessment Oct 24, 2026

Stored thesis · Jul 8, 2026. Latest Evidence uses source-matched measurements where available, alongside the last thesis-monitor assessment. Source periods and assessment dates are shown separately. A new measurement does not automatically change the published status or verify an older target.

Incoming Evidence

Compare these dated observations with the operating requirements above

Expectations trend

Same fiscal period

FY2027 · fiscal year ending 2027-12-31 · fmp

FY2027 EPS: comparable history unavailable.

FY2027 revenue$3.22B

$3.22B → $3.22B · observed estimates

Exact estimates & source dates

One fiscal period and provider throughout. At least five contributors are required for each plotted metric; missing coverage stays a gap. Axes show the observed range. Counts measure coverage, not revisions.

FY2027 estimate observations · fmp
Snapshot	EPS	Revenue	EPS / revenue analysts
2026-07-24	Unavailable	$3,222,406,170	3 / 7
2026-07-25	Unavailable	$3,222,406,170	3 / 7
2026-07-26	Unavailable	$3,222,406,170	3 / 7
2026-07-27	Unavailable	$3,222,406,170	3 / 7
2026-07-28	Unavailable	$3,222,406,170	3 / 7
2026-07-29	Unavailable	$3,222,406,170	3 / 7
2026-07-30	Unavailable	$3,237,632,067	4 / 5
2026-07-31	Unavailable	$3,237,607,500	4 / 5
2026-08-01	Unavailable	$3,237,607,500	4 / 5
2026-08-02	Unavailable	$3,221,406,170	3 / 7
2026-08-03	Unavailable	$3,221,406,170	3 / 7
2026-08-04	Unavailable	$3,221,406,170	3 / 7
2026-08-05	Unavailable	$3,237,607,500	4 / 5
2026-08-06	Unavailable	$3,237,607,500	4 / 5
2026-08-08	Unavailable	$3,223,097,200	4 / 5
2026-08-09	Unavailable	$3,219,625,380	2 / 6
2026-08-10	Unavailable	$3,223,097,200	4 / 5
2026-08-12	Unavailable	$3,223,097,200	4 / 5
2026-08-13	Unavailable	$3,223,097,200	4 / 5
2026-08-14	Unavailable	$3,223,097,200	4 / 5
2026-08-15	Unavailable	$3,223,097,200	4 / 5
2026-08-16	Unavailable	$3,223,097,200	4 / 5
2026-08-17	Unavailable	$3,223,097,200	4 / 5
2026-08-18	Unavailable	$3,223,097,200	4 / 5
2026-08-19	Unavailable	$3,223,097,200	4 / 5
2026-08-20	Unavailable	$3,225,120,200	4 / 5
2026-08-21	Unavailable	$3,225,120,200	3 / 5
2026-08-22	Unavailable	$3,218,600,167	3 / 5
2026-08-23	Unavailable	$3,218,600,167	3 / 5
2026-08-24	Unavailable	$3,218,600,167	3 / 5
2026-08-25	Unavailable	$3,218,600,167	3 / 5
2026-08-26	Unavailable	$3,218,600,167	3 / 5
2026-08-27	Unavailable	$3,218,600,167	3 / 5
2026-08-28	Unavailable	$3,218,600,167	3 / 5
2026-08-29	Unavailable	$3,218,600,167	3 / 5
2026-08-30	Unavailable	$3,218,600,167	3 / 5
2026-08-31	Unavailable	$3,218,600,167	3 / 5
2026-09-01	Unavailable	$3,218,600,167	3 / 5
2026-09-02	Unavailable	$3,218,600,167	3 / 5
2026-09-03	Unavailable	$3,218,600,167	3 / 5
2026-09-04	Unavailable	$3,218,600,167	3 / 5
2026-09-05	Unavailable	$3,218,600,167	3 / 5
2026-09-06	Unavailable	$3,218,600,167	3 / 5
2026-09-07	Unavailable	$3,218,600,167	3 / 5
2026-09-08	Unavailable	$3,218,600,167	3 / 5
2026-09-09	Unavailable	$3,218,600,167	3 / 5
2026-09-10	Unavailable	$3,218,600,167	3 / 5
2026-09-11	Unavailable	$3,218,600,167	3 / 5
2026-09-12	Unavailable	$3,218,600,167	3 / 5
2026-09-13	Unavailable	$3,218,600,167	3 / 5
2026-09-14	Unavailable	$3,218,600,167	3 / 5
2026-09-15	Unavailable	$3,218,600,167	3 / 5
2026-09-16	Unavailable	$3,218,600,167	3 / 5
2026-09-17	Unavailable	$3,218,600,167	3 / 5
2026-09-18	Unavailable	$3,218,600,167	3 / 5
2026-09-19	Unavailable	$3,218,600,167	3 / 5
2026-09-20	Unavailable	$3,218,600,167	3 / 5
2026-09-21	Unavailable	$3,218,600,167	3 / 5
2026-09-22	Unavailable	$3,218,600,167	3 / 5
2026-09-23	Unavailable	$3,218,600,167	3 / 5
2026-09-24	Unavailable	$3,218,600,167	3 / 5
2026-09-25	Unavailable	$3,218,600,167	3 / 5
2026-09-26	Unavailable	$3,218,600,167	3 / 5
2026-09-27	Unavailable	$3,218,600,167	3 / 5
2026-09-28	Unavailable	$3,218,600,167	3 / 5
2026-09-29	Unavailable	$3,218,600,167	3 / 5
2026-09-30	Unavailable	$3,218,600,167	3 / 5
2026-10-01	Unavailable	$3,218,600,167	3 / 5
2026-10-02	Unavailable	$3,218,600,167	3 / 5
2026-10-03	Unavailable	$3,218,600,167	3 / 5
2026-10-04	Unavailable	$3,218,600,167	3 / 5
2026-10-05	Unavailable	$3,218,600,167	3 / 5
2026-10-06	Unavailable	$3,218,600,167	3 / 5
2026-10-07	Unavailable	$3,218,600,167	3 / 5
2026-10-08	Unavailable	$3,218,600,167	3 / 5
2026-10-09	Unavailable	$3,218,600,167	3 / 5
2026-10-10	Unavailable	$3,218,600,167	3 / 5
2026-10-11	Unavailable	$3,218,600,167	3 / 5
2026-10-12	Unavailable	$3,218,600,167	3 / 5
2026-10-13	Unavailable	$3,218,600,167	3 / 5
2026-10-14	Unavailable	$3,218,100,167	3 / 5
2026-10-15	Unavailable	$3,218,100,167	3 / 5
2026-10-16	Unavailable	$3,218,100,167	3 / 5
2026-10-17	Unavailable	$3,218,100,167	3 / 5
2026-10-18	Unavailable	$3,218,100,167	3 / 5
2026-10-19	Unavailable	$3,218,100,167	3 / 5
2026-10-20	Unavailable	$3,218,100,167	3 / 5
2026-10-21	Unavailable	$3,218,100,167	3 / 5
2026-10-22	Unavailable	$3,218,100,167	3 / 5
2026-10-23	Unavailable	$3,218,100,167	3 / 5
2026-10-24	Unavailable	$3,218,100,167	3 / 5

Revenue and EPS estimates track expectations. They are not delivered results or like-for-like proof of a required annual path.

Compare required revenue and earnings

Analyst view

Monthly observations

Buy / Strong BuyHoldSell / Strong Sell

Exact monthly counts

Monthly rating snapshots · fmp. Missing snapshots are not zero.
Date	Buy*	Hold	Sell*
2026-05-01	2	3	2
2026-06-01	2	3	2
2026-07-01	2	3	2
2026-08-01	2	3	2
2026-09-01	2	3	2
2026-10-01	2	3	2

*Buy includes Strong Buy; Sell includes Strong Sell. Monthly counts describe the analyst mix, not the firms behind each recent action.

Latest: 2 Buy / Strong Buy · 3 Hold · 2 Sell / Strong Sell

0 upgrades0 downgrades0 maintains

Recent actions · Sep 25–Oct 24 · 0 recorded

Price-target changes

30 days

Individual price-target observations are unavailable.

0 raises · 0 cuts · 0 unchanged · 0 without a comparable prior

How this is measured

Sep 25, 2026–Oct 24, 2026. Each firm's latest positive target is paired only with its immediately prior positive target from the same provider, at most 180 days earlier. Unmatched observations have one dot; conflicting observations are not compared.

Outlook in Brief

The evidence, the remaining questions, and what comes next

What's improving

No recovery evidence is reported in the available driver assessments.

Still unresolved / key risks

Keep capital expenditures below $80 million in 2026Capital expenditures: $20M
Deliver EPS near $1.28 in 2026Published status: Broken
Achieve revenue near $3.54 billion in fiscal 2026Revenue: $840M

Next proof point

Nov 4, 2026

Look for updated results and guidance against the published targets, plus direct evidence for unresolved drivers.

Review earnings

Bottom line

3 of 3 published conditions remain under pressure or need verification. The next results need to address those conditions.

The dated weekly assessment and its assumptions are available in Read detailed Outlook.

Historical risk context

Observed price history; separate from operating scenarios

Price sensitivity

1.7%Typical daily move · historical

Downside history

-25.3%Maximum drawdown · trailing year

Read detailed Outlook Company context, assumptions & risks

Sinclair, Inc. outlook in detail

The weekly editorial context below is a separate assessment from the dated monitor evidence above. Recovery observations do not automatically change the published thesis. Unverified outside influences are hypotheses, not measured driver evidence.

Updated Oct 24, 2026

What kind of bet this is

This is a cyclical media business with a recovery and execution-driven long-term thesis, rather than a proven durable compounder. The thesis is intact, while company quality and momentum have improved and the overall signal has shifted from cautious to mixed.

What's priced into Sinclair, Inc.

Valuation is stretched, at roughly in line with peers, and expectations are somewhat ahead of the evidence. The market appears to assume continued delivery on higher profit guidance, leaving less room for another guidance reversal.

What the fundamentals likely do

Near term, results could remain uneven: SBGI missed its most recent quarter after an earlier earnings beat, and recent earnings surprises have been erratic. For 2026, political advertising revenue and Adjusted EBITDA guidance have both risen, while reported capital spending is tracking management’s stated range; however, the business remains loss-making on the evidence provided.

What Sinclair, Inc. hinges on

The multi-year view depends on management sustaining delivery, especially after raising guidance, and converting political advertising growth into stronger financial performance. Near-term swing factors include the next earnings report, interest-rate changes, and whether sector peers continue to report strong results and higher guidance.