StandardAero (SARO)

NYSEIndustrialsAerospace & DefenseSnapshot 2026-10-23

$21.78+0.28%

Close 2026-10-23 · 1-day change

Investment OutlookAs of Oct 24, 2026

What could strengthen or challenge StandardAero’s outlook?

The long-term thesis, the evidence coming in, and the environment around it. Thesis dated Jul 8, 2026.

Higher potential upsideImproving expectations

Next-FY EPS estimate change · 30 days

-0.8%

+10% or more+5%0%−5%−10% or less

1.79 → 1.77 EPS · FY ending Dec 31, 2027 · 8 analysts

Higher risk of downsideWeakening expectations

One observable signal. This measures changing earnings expectations, not the probability of a gain or loss.

How this is measured

Change in the same fiscal period’s mean EPS estimate from Sep 24, 2026 to Oct 24, 2026: (new ÷ prior − 1). Contributor count changed from 9 to 8; this is not the number of analysts revising. Source: FMP consensus snapshots. The ±10% axis is a display range.

Measure / period	Management expectations	Analyst expectations
FY 2026 · Q4
Revenue	—	1.66B
EPS	—	0.425
FY 2026 · Annual
Revenue	$6.38B–$6.5B	6.45B
EPS	$1.5–$1.57non-GAAP	1.541
EBITDA	$885M–$910Mnon-GAAP	—
Free cash flow	$270M–$300Mnon-GAAP	—
FY 2027 · Annual
Revenue	—	7.09B
EPS	—	1.772

What the Thesis Depends On

4 published thesis conditions, with dated milestones shown separately.

Key Factor	Why It Matters	Current Status	Break Condition	Latest Evidence
Free cash flow reaches at least $270 million in 2026	The company plans free cash flow of $270M-$300M, showing better cash generation.	Intact	Free cash flow falls below $200 million in FY26	Free cash flow: $51.277M FY2026-Q2; GAAP. Published target: >= $270 million. Target period is not explicitly aligned with this observation. Source published Aug 7, 202651,277,000 USD · calculatedSource reportLast status assessment Oct 24, 2026 Measurement source consolidated · GAAP FY2026-Q2 · Period ending Jun 30, 2026 Source: stock_quarterly_financials_fmp. Reference: 2026-Q2. Source status: unverified. Compare required operating outcomes Compare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement. Management context Stated as a priority in 4 of last 4 quarters. Free Cash Flow was $209.0 million in 2025 and management raised 2026 guidance to $270-$300 million. Quarterly free cash flow showed improvement with a $50.2 million inflow in 2026-Q2 after a negative in 2026-Q1. The trajectory shows progress but with some volatility. Delivery assessment Oct 24, 2026
Smooth CEO transition with stable strategic direction	Leadership is stable with a smooth CEO transition.	Under Pressure	Significant strategic changes or leadership issues arise post-CEO transition	COO departure (2026-09-28) vs stable leadership target CEO transition to Paul McElhinney completed; COO Kimberly Ernzen departed in Sept 2026 without immediate successor. Context reviewed through Oct 23, 2026Last status assessment Oct 24, 2026Compare required operating outcomes Compare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement.
Operating income grows to at least $143.1 million in Q1 2026	Profit margins improve as operating income rose from $128.9M to $143.1M in Q1 2026.	Improving	Operating income falls below $128.9 million in Q1 FY26	Operating income: $168.483M FY2026-Q2; GAAP. Published target: >= $143.1 million. Target period is not explicitly aligned with this observation. Source published Aug 6, 2026168,483,000 USD · source valueSource reportLast status assessment Oct 24, 2026 Measurement source consolidated · GAAP FY2026-Q2 · Period ending Jun 30, 2026 Source: company_financial_results. Reference: b1076f71-3cb9-4e8c-b8b9-55a177a39346. Source status: eligible. Compare required operating outcomes Compare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement. Management context Stated as a priority in 4 of last 4 quarters. Operating income increased from $128.9 million in 2025-Q1 to $168.5 million in 2026-Q2. Adjusted EBITDA margin expanded from 13.3% in 2025 to 14.4% in 2026-Q2. Management's focus on volume growth, productivity, and margin expansion is reflected in these improving financials, indicating delivery. Delivery assessment Oct 24, 2026
Revenue grows to at least $6.325 billion in 2026	A primary condition in StandardAero's published investment case. The stated target is >= $6.325 billion.	Intact	Revenue falls below $6.05 billion in FY26	Revenue: $1.6B FY2026-Q2; GAAP. Published target: >= $6.325 billion. Target period is not explicitly aligned with this observation. Source published Aug 6, 20261,599,693,000 USD · source valueSource reportLast status assessment Oct 24, 2026 Measurement source consolidated · GAAP FY2026-Q2 · Period ending Jun 30, 2026 Source: company_financial_results. Reference: b1076f71-3cb9-4e8c-b8b9-55a177a39346. Source status: eligible. Compare required operating outcomes Compare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement. Management context Stated as a priority in 4 of last 4 quarters. Revenue grew from $5,237.2 million in 2024 to $6,062.5 million in 2025, a 15.8% increase. Management raised full-year 2026 revenue guidance from $6,275-$6,425 million to $6,375-$6,500 million reflecting strong demand and operational momentum. The trajectory is delivering with consistent upward revisions. Delivery assessment Oct 24, 2026

Stored thesis · Jul 8, 2026. Latest Evidence uses source-matched measurements where available, alongside the last thesis-monitor assessment. Source periods and assessment dates are shown separately. A new measurement does not automatically change the published status or verify an older target.

Incoming Evidence

Compare these dated observations with the operating requirements above

Expectations trend

Same fiscal period

FY2027 · fiscal year ending 2027-12-31 · fmp

FY2027 EPS$1.77

$1.60 → $1.77 · observed estimates

FY2027 revenue$7.09B

$7.07B → $7.09B · observed estimates

Exact estimates & source dates

One fiscal period and provider throughout. At least five contributors are required for each plotted metric; missing coverage stays a gap. Axes show the observed range. Counts measure coverage, not revisions.

FY2027 estimate observations · fmp
Snapshot	EPS	Revenue	EPS / revenue analysts
2026-07-24	$1.60	$7,069,721,911	8 / 9
2026-07-25	$1.48	$7,032,626,760	11 / 13
2026-07-26	$1.48	$7,032,626,760	11 / 13
2026-07-27	$1.48	$7,032,626,760	11 / 13
2026-07-28	$1.48	$7,032,626,760	11 / 13
2026-07-29	$1.48	$7,032,626,760	11 / 13
2026-07-30	$1.48	$7,032,626,760	11 / 13
2026-07-31	$1.48	$7,032,626,760	11 / 13
2026-08-01	$1.59	$7,069,216,623	8 / 9
2026-08-02	$1.48	$7,032,626,760	11 / 13
2026-08-03	$1.48	$7,032,626,760	11 / 13
2026-08-04	$1.59	$7,069,216,623	8 / 9
2026-08-05	$1.59	$7,069,216,623	8 / 9
2026-08-06	$1.48	$7,032,626,760	11 / 13
2026-08-08	$1.59	$7,069,216,621	8 / 9
2026-08-09	$1.48	$7,032,604,990	11 / 13
2026-08-10	$1.59	$7,069,216,621	8 / 9
2026-08-12	$1.59	$7,069,216,621	8 / 9
2026-08-13	$1.59	$7,069,216,621	8 / 9
2026-08-14	$1.59	$7,069,216,621	8 / 9
2026-08-15	$1.59	$7,069,216,621	8 / 9
2026-08-16	$1.59	$7,069,216,621	8 / 9
2026-08-17	$1.59	$7,069,216,621	8 / 9
2026-08-18	$1.59	$7,069,216,621	8 / 9
2026-08-19	$1.59	$7,069,216,621	8 / 9
2026-08-20	$1.50	$7,099,671,379	8 / 9
2026-08-21	$1.50	$7,099,671,379	8 / 9
2026-08-22	$1.50	$7,100,644,304	8 / 9
2026-08-23	$1.50	$7,100,655,228	8 / 9
2026-08-24	$1.50	$7,100,655,228	8 / 9
2026-08-25	$1.50	$7,100,655,220	8 / 9
2026-08-26	$1.50	$7,100,655,220	8 / 9
2026-08-27	$1.50	$7,100,655,220	8 / 9
2026-08-28	$1.50	$7,100,655,220	8 / 9
2026-08-29	$1.50	$7,100,655,220	8 / 9
2026-08-30	$1.50	$7,100,655,220	8 / 9
2026-08-31	$1.50	$7,100,655,220	8 / 9
2026-09-01	$1.50	$7,100,655,220	8 / 9
2026-09-02	$1.50	$7,100,655,220	8 / 9
2026-09-03	$1.50	$7,100,655,220	8 / 9
2026-09-04	$1.50	$7,100,655,228	8 / 9
2026-09-05	$1.50	$7,100,655,228	8 / 9
2026-09-06	$1.50	$7,100,655,228	8 / 9
2026-09-07	$1.50	$7,100,655,228	8 / 9
2026-09-08	$1.50	$7,100,655,228	8 / 9
2026-09-09	$1.79	$7,100,655,228	8 / 9
2026-09-10	$1.79	$7,100,655,228	8 / 9
2026-09-11	$1.79	$7,100,655,228	8 / 9
2026-09-12	$1.79	$7,100,655,228	8 / 9
2026-09-13	$1.79	$7,100,655,228	8 / 9
2026-09-14	$1.79	$7,100,655,228	8 / 9
2026-09-15	$1.79	$7,100,655,228	8 / 9
2026-09-16	$1.79	$7,096,687,903	9 / 10
2026-09-17	$1.79	$7,096,687,903	9 / 10
2026-09-18	$1.79	$7,096,687,903	9 / 10
2026-09-19	$1.79	$7,096,687,903	9 / 10
2026-09-20	$1.79	$7,096,687,903	9 / 10
2026-09-21	$1.79	$7,096,687,903	9 / 10
2026-09-22	$1.79	$7,096,687,903	9 / 10
2026-09-23	$1.79	$7,096,687,903	9 / 10
2026-09-24	$1.79	$7,096,687,903	9 / 10
2026-09-25	$1.79	$7,096,687,903	9 / 10
2026-09-26	$1.78	$7,099,549,442	9 / 10
2026-09-27	$1.78	$7,099,549,442	8 / 10
2026-09-28	$1.78	$7,099,549,442	8 / 10
2026-09-29	$1.78	$7,099,549,442	8 / 10
2026-09-30	$1.78	$7,099,549,442	8 / 10
2026-10-01	$1.78	$7,099,912,600	8 / 10
2026-10-02	$1.78	$7,098,774,138	8 / 10
2026-10-03	$1.78	$7,098,774,138	8 / 10
2026-10-04	$1.78	$7,098,774,138	8 / 10
2026-10-05	$1.78	$7,098,774,138	8 / 10
2026-10-06	$1.78	$7,098,774,138	8 / 10
2026-10-07	$1.78	$7,098,774,138	8 / 10
2026-10-08	$1.78	$7,094,533,284	8 / 10
2026-10-09	$1.78	$7,094,767,917	8 / 10
2026-10-10	$1.78	$7,094,767,917	8 / 10
2026-10-11	$1.78	$7,094,767,917	8 / 10
2026-10-12	$1.78	$7,094,767,917	8 / 10
2026-10-13	$1.78	$7,094,767,917	8 / 10
2026-10-14	$1.78	$7,094,767,917	8 / 10
2026-10-15	$1.78	$7,094,767,917	8 / 10
2026-10-16	$1.78	$7,094,767,917	8 / 10
2026-10-17	$1.78	$7,094,767,917	8 / 10
2026-10-18	$1.77	$7,094,383,665	8 / 10
2026-10-19	$1.77	$7,094,383,665	8 / 10
2026-10-20	$1.77	$7,088,728,280	8 / 10
2026-10-21	$1.77	$7,088,728,280	8 / 10
2026-10-22	$1.77	$7,088,728,280	8 / 10
2026-10-23	$1.77	$7,088,728,280	8 / 10
2026-10-24	$1.77	$7,088,728,280	8 / 10

Revenue and EPS estimates track expectations. They are not delivered results or like-for-like proof of a required annual path.

Compare required revenue and earnings

Analyst view

Monthly observations

Buy / Strong BuyHoldSell / Strong Sell

Exact monthly counts

Monthly rating snapshots · fmp. Missing snapshots are not zero.
Date	Buy*	Hold	Sell*
2026-05-01	12	3	1
2026-06-01	12	3	0
2026-07-01	12	3	0
2026-08-01	11	3	0
2026-09-01	11	4	0
2026-10-01	11	4	0

*Buy includes Strong Buy; Sell includes Strong Sell. Monthly counts describe the analyst mix, not the firms behind each recent action.

Latest: 11 Buy / Strong Buy · 4 Hold · 0 Sell / Strong Sell

0 upgrades0 downgrades1 maintains

Recent actions · Sep 25–Oct 24 · 1 recorded

Price-target changes

30 days

Individual price-target observations are unavailable.

0 raises · 0 cuts · 0 unchanged · 0 without a comparable prior

How this is measured

Sep 25, 2026–Oct 24, 2026. Each firm's latest positive target is paired only with its immediately prior positive target from the same provider, at most 180 days earlier. Unmatched observations have one dot; conflicting observations are not compared.

Outlook in Brief

The evidence, the remaining questions, and what comes next

What's improving

No recovery evidence is reported in the available driver assessments.

Still unresolved / key risks

Free cash flow reaches at least $270 million in 2026Free cash flow: $51.277M
Smooth CEO transition with stable strategic directionPublished status: Under Pressure
Operating income grows to at least $143.1 million in Q1 2026Operating income: $168.483M
Revenue grows to at least $6.325 billion in 2026Revenue: $1.6B

Next proof point

Nov 5, 2026

Look for updated results and guidance against the published targets, plus direct evidence for unresolved drivers.

Review earnings

Bottom line

4 of 4 published conditions remain under pressure or need verification. The next results need to address those conditions.

The dated weekly assessment and its assumptions are available in Read detailed Outlook.

Historical risk context

Observed price history; separate from operating scenarios

Price sensitivity

1.5%Typical daily move · historical

Downside history

-40.3%Maximum drawdown · trailing year

Read detailed Outlook Company context, assumptions & risks

StandardAero outlook in detail

The weekly editorial context below is a separate assessment from the dated monitor evidence above. Recovery observations do not automatically change the published thesis. Unverified outside influences are hypotheses, not measured driver evidence.

Updated Oct 24, 2026

What kind of bet this is

This is an industrial growth and execution story, not a proven durable compounder, because earnings quality is still rated fragile. The long-term thesis is intact, with the recent signal improving, but free cash flow and management credibility remain areas to watch.

What's priced into StandardAero

SARO is described as cheap versus peers, though the valuation evidence also shows a premium versus peers, so the relative picture is mixed. The priced-in assessment is labeled justified, with low fragility; the snapshot does not specify exactly what growth or earnings expectations the market assumes.

What the fundamentals likely do

Near-term fundamentals have support from 15.8% revenue growth in 2025, raised 2026 revenue guidance, and improving operating income and margins. Free cash flow is less steady, despite higher 2026 guidance, and a recent history of a deep miss remains a caution; the stated near-term miss risk is low. A COO transition in September adds some management uncertainty.

What StandardAero hinges on

The multi-year view depends on management sustaining revenue growth and operating improvement while delivering on higher free cash flow guidance. A reversal of recently raised guidance would damage credibility, while continued strength or weakness among industrial bellwethers could affect the sector backdrop.