StandardAero (SARO)
NYSEIndustrialsAerospace & DefenseSnapshot 2026-09-09
$24.22-1.02%
Close 2026-09-09 · 1-day change
NYSEIndustrialsAerospace & DefenseSnapshot 2026-09-09
Warn: Management is running behind on a stated commitment.
StandardAero grows revenue about 8% yearly, with raised guidance to $6.3B-$6.45B in 2026. Profit margins improve as operating income rose from $128.9M to $143.1M in Q1 2026. The company plans free cash flow of $270M-$300M, showing better cash generation. Leadership is stable with a smooth CEO transition.
Free cash flow remains weak, as Q1 2026 showed negative cash from operations. Profit margin gains may stall if operating income growth slows. Revenue growth could fall below analyst expectations if aerospace demand weakens.
The stock price reflects about 8% revenue growth and stable profit margins. Our view aligns with this but is more cautious than some analysts who expect higher price targets.
Breaks if: Free cash flow falls below $200 million in FY26
Raise full-year 2026 free cash flow guidance reflecting improved cash generation.
Stated as a priority in 3 of last 3 quarters. Free Cash Flow guidance was raised to $270 to $300 million for 2026 from $200 to $210 million in 2025. Actual Free Cash Flow was positive $50.2 million in 2026-Q2 after a negative Q1. Management's repeated guidance raises and quarterly cash flow results show progress delivering this priority.
This is not a price target or investment advice.
A long-form read on the 1–3 year hold thesis. It updates when the weekly evidence changes.
This investment represents a durable compounder with a focus on revenue and cash flow growth. The current thesis state is stable, supported by strong recent financial performance, although confidence has shifted to medium.
The market seems to reflect a neutral valuation, with SARO priced cheaply compared to peers. There is a slight expectations gap, indicating that the market may not fully account for the company's potential growth.
Management has shown a commitment to increasing revenue and maintaining strong operating income growth, which is likely to continue. However, free cash flow guidance is mixed, and there is a moderate risk of missing future targets.
The thesis hinges on the performance of sector bellwethers like SPCX, GE, and RTX. If these companies continue to perform well, SARO could benefit from positive sector momentum, but any negative shifts could impact its trajectory.
The most important moves since the prior daily snapshot.
Yes, our read has strengthened. The latest earnings beat supports a positive outlook. The company also lifted guidance, which reinforces growth expectations. Additionally, a new facility expansion will enhance repair services. There are no new threats to the thesis.
as of 2026-09-09
Review the evidence to watch, what would become a concern, and what would make it less concerning.
Not investment advice. Scores describe historical and current data; they are not forecasts of future returns. Consult a licensed advisor before making investment decisions.
“Free Cash Flow for the quarter was an inflow of $50.2 million”
“Cash Flow used in Operations was ($119.6) million; Free Cash Flow for the quarter was ($133.7) million”
“Cash Flow from Operations was $323.0 million; Free Cash Flow for the quarter was $307.7 million”
Breaks if: Significant strategic changes or leadership issues arise post-CEO transition
Breaks if: Operating income falls below $128.9 million in Q1 FY26
Sustain double-digit earnings growth and margin expansion through operational execution.
Stated as a priority in 3 of last 3 quarters. Net income grew 43.7% year-over-year to $97.3 million in 2026-Q2 from $67.7 million in 2025-Q2. Operating income increased from $135.6 million to $168.5 million over the same period. Management consistently emphasized double-digit earnings growth and margin expansion, with financials showing delivery on this priority.
“We remain confident in our ability to deliver another year of double-digit earnings growth”
“We believe StandardAero is well positioned to deliver another year of double-digit earnings growth”
“2025 was a record year... we believe StandardAero is uniquely equipped to deliver sustained double-digit earnings growth”
Breaks if: Revenue falls below $6.05 billion in FY26
Raise full-year 2026 revenue guidance reflecting strong demand and operational momentum.
Stated as a priority in 3 of last 3 quarters. Revenue grew from $6,062.5 million in 2025 to a raised 2026 guidance range of $6,375 to $6,500 million. Quarterly revenue increased 4.6% year-over-year to $1,599.7 million in 2026-Q2. Management consistently raised revenue guidance reflecting strong demand and operational momentum, delivering on this priority.
“Increasing FY26 Revenue, Adjusted EBITDA and Adjusted Diluted EPS guidance”
“Increasing FY26 Revenue, Adjusted EBITDA and Adjusted EPS guidance”
“StandardAero is initiating the following full year 2026 guidance: Revenue $6,275 to $6,425 million”
Overall, SARO's fundamentals are strong, but the medium confidence level suggests caution. Not investment advice.