Sabre (SABR)

NASDAQConsumer DiscretionarySoftware - InfrastructureSnapshot 2026-10-23

$1.52-1.30%

Close 2026-10-23 · 1-day change

Investment OutlookAs of Oct 24, 2026

What could strengthen or challenge Sabre’s outlook?

The long-term thesis, the evidence coming in, and the environment around it. Thesis dated Jul 8, 2026.

Higher potential upsideImproving expectations

Next-FY EPS estimate change · 30 days

Comparable estimates unavailable

+10% or more+5%0%−5%−10% or less

A matching fiscal period and sufficient coverage are required.

Higher risk of downsideWeakening expectations

One observable signal. This measures changing earnings expectations, not the probability of a gain or loss.

How this is measured

The calculation requires same-period, same-provider snapshots, positive EPS, at least five analysts and a baseline within three days of the requested lookback.

Measure / period	Management expectations	Analyst expectations
Quarter ending 2026-12-30
Revenue	—	683.65M
EPS	—	0.049
Annual ending 2026-12-31
Revenue	—	2.89B
EPS	—	-0.046
Annual ending 2027-12-31
Revenue	—	3B
EPS	—	0.174

Management figures unavailable.

What the Thesis Depends On

4 published thesis conditions, with dated milestones shown separately.

Key Factor	Why It Matters	Current Status	Break Condition	Latest Evidence
Successful launch of AI-powered travel solutions	A supporting condition in Sabre's published investment case. The stated target is Launch AI-powered travel solutions successfully.	Improving	Failure to launch or gain traction with AI solutions	AI investment increasing vs launch target Sabre reaffirmed 2026 guidance and increased AI investment in August 2026, supporting the ongoing launch of AI-powered travel solutions. Context reviewed through Oct 23, 2026Last status assessment Oct 24, 2026Compare required operating outcomes Compare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement. Management context Stated as a priority in 3 of last 3 quarters. Management highlighted launching AI-powered travel solutions including agentic AI experiences with partners like MindTrip and PayPal, and developing proprietary AI APIs. While financials do not quantify AI revenue impact, management's recurring emphasis shows strategic focus with mixed delivery evidence. Delivery assessment Oct 24, 2026
Marketplace revenue grows at least 5% in next 12 months	A supporting condition in Sabre's published investment case. The stated target is >=5% YoY marketplace revenue growth.	Broken	Marketplace revenue growth falls below 5% in FY26	Required source inputs unavailable Cannot calculate segment_revenue_yoy_pct from the available matching source inputs. Missing inputs are not treated as zero. Source date unavailableLast status assessment Oct 24, 2026Compare required operating outcomes Compare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement. Management context Stated as a priority in 3 of last 3 quarters. Marketplace revenue grew from $545.8 million in 2025-Q2 to $576.8 million in 2026-Q2 (+6%), and from $569.1 million in 2025-Q1 to $618.0 million in 2026-Q1 (+9%). Total Marketplace bookings increased about 1% in 2026-Q2. Management consistently emphasized Marketplace revenue growth driven by air bookings and booking fees, and the financials show delivering growth in this segment. Delivery assessment Oct 24, 2026
Meet full-year 2026 EBITDA and free cash flow guidance	The company keeps its 2026 profit and cash flow goals.	Improving	Fail to meet 2026 EBITDA or free cash flow guidance	Direct metric needs a verified mapping The published measure or accounting basis is not supported by an exact source binding. Source date unavailableLast status assessment Oct 24, 2026Compare required operating outcomes Compare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement. Management context Stated as a priority in 3 of last 3 quarters. Revenue grew from $702 million in 2026-Q1 to $712 million in 2026-Q2 (+4% YoY). Normalized Adjusted EBITDA increased 19% year-on-year to $151 million in 2026-Q2. Management reaffirmed full-year 2026 guidance for revenue and air distribution bookings growth and raised guidance for Pro Forma Adjusted EBITDA to ~$600 million and Free Cash Flow to approximately ($65 million). The trajectory is delivering consistent growth and improved cash flow. Delivery assessment Oct 24, 2026
Revenue grows at least 4% in next 12 months	A primary condition in Sabre's published investment case. The stated target is >=4% YoY revenue growth.	Improving	YoY revenue growth falls below 4% in FY26	Revenue growth: 3.61% FY2026-Q2; GAAP. Published target: >=4% YoY revenue growth. Target period is not explicitly aligned with this observation. Source published Aug 6, 20263.610862 percent · calculatedSource reportLast status assessment Oct 24, 2026 Measurement source consolidated · GAAP FY2026-Q2 · Period ending Jun 30, 2026 Source: company_financial_results. Reference: 1815e657-e3de-4261-aee4-b5fd7a9133e6. Source status: eligible. Compare required operating outcomes Compare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement. Management context Stated as a priority in 3 of last 3 quarters. Revenue grew from $702 million in 2026-Q1 to $712 million in 2026-Q2 (+4% YoY). Normalized Adjusted EBITDA increased 19% year-on-year to $151 million in 2026-Q2. Management reaffirmed full-year 2026 guidance for revenue and air distribution bookings growth and raised guidance for Pro Forma Adjusted EBITDA to ~$600 million and Free Cash Flow to approximately ($65 million). The trajectory is delivering consistent growth and improved cash flow. Delivery assessment Oct 24, 2026

Stored thesis · Jul 8, 2026. Latest Evidence uses source-matched measurements where available, alongside the last thesis-monitor assessment. Source periods and assessment dates are shown separately. A new measurement does not automatically change the published status or verify an older target.

Incoming Evidence

Compare these dated observations with the operating requirements above

Expectations trend

Same fiscal period

FY2027 · fiscal year ending 2027-12-31 · fmp

FY2027 EPS: comparable history unavailable.

FY2027 revenue$3.00B

$3.00B → $3.00B · observed estimates

Exact estimates & source dates

One fiscal period and provider throughout. At least five contributors are required for each plotted metric; missing coverage stays a gap. Axes show the observed range. Counts measure coverage, not revisions.

FY2027 estimate observations · fmp
Snapshot	EPS	Revenue	EPS / revenue analysts
2026-07-24	Unavailable	$3,003,120,900	4 / 7
2026-07-25	Unavailable	$3,003,120,900	4 / 7
2026-07-26	Unavailable	$3,003,120,900	4 / 7
2026-07-27	Unavailable	$3,003,120,900	4 / 7
2026-07-28	Unavailable	$3,003,120,900	4 / 7
2026-07-29	Unavailable	$3,001,813,740	3 / 7
2026-07-30	Unavailable	$2,992,281,915	4 / 6
2026-07-31	Unavailable	$3,001,813,740	3 / 7
2026-08-01	Unavailable	$2,992,281,915	4 / 6
2026-08-02	Unavailable	$3,007,546,180	3 / 6
2026-08-03	Unavailable	$2,990,451,895	3 / 6
2026-08-04	Unavailable	$2,990,451,895	3 / 6
2026-08-05	Unavailable	$3,007,546,180	3 / 6
2026-08-06	Unavailable	$3,007,546,180	3 / 6
2026-08-08	Unavailable	$3,007,546,180	3 / 6
2026-08-09	Unavailable	$2,996,210,084	3 / 5
2026-08-10	Unavailable	$3,007,546,180	3 / 6
2026-08-12	Unavailable	$2,996,210,084	3 / 5
2026-08-13	Unavailable	$3,011,112,840	3 / 6
2026-08-14	Unavailable	$2,996,210,084	3 / 5
2026-08-15	Unavailable	$2,996,210,084	3 / 5
2026-08-16	Unavailable	$2,996,210,084	3 / 5
2026-08-17	Unavailable	$2,996,210,084	3 / 5
2026-08-18	Unavailable	$2,996,210,084	3 / 5
2026-08-19	Unavailable	$2,996,210,084	3 / 5
2026-08-20	Unavailable	$3,002,555,209	3 / 5
2026-08-21	Unavailable	$3,002,555,209	3 / 5
2026-08-22	Unavailable	$3,002,555,209	3 / 5
2026-08-23	Unavailable	$3,002,555,209	3 / 5
2026-08-24	Unavailable	$3,002,555,209	3 / 5
2026-08-25	Unavailable	$3,002,550,384	3 / 5
2026-08-26	Unavailable	$3,002,550,384	3 / 5
2026-08-27	Unavailable	$3,002,550,384	3 / 5
2026-08-28	Unavailable	$3,002,550,384	3 / 5
2026-08-29	Unavailable	$3,004,455,166	3 / 5
2026-08-30	Unavailable	$3,004,455,166	3 / 5
2026-08-31	Unavailable	$3,004,455,166	3 / 5
2026-09-01	Unavailable	$3,004,455,166	3 / 5
2026-09-02	Unavailable	$3,004,455,166	3 / 5
2026-09-03	Unavailable	$3,004,455,166	3 / 5
2026-09-04	Unavailable	$3,004,455,166	3 / 5
2026-09-05	Unavailable	$3,004,455,166	3 / 5
2026-09-06	Unavailable	$3,004,455,166	3 / 5
2026-09-07	Unavailable	$3,004,455,166	3 / 5
2026-09-08	Unavailable	$3,004,455,166	3 / 5
2026-09-09	Unavailable	$3,004,455,166	3 / 5
2026-09-10	Unavailable	$3,004,455,166	3 / 5
2026-09-11	Unavailable	$3,005,511,740	3 / 5
2026-09-12	Unavailable	$3,005,511,740	3 / 5
2026-09-13	Unavailable	$3,005,511,740	3 / 5
2026-09-14	Unavailable	$3,005,511,740	4 / 5
2026-09-15	Unavailable	$3,005,511,740	4 / 5
2026-09-16	Unavailable	$3,005,511,740	4 / 5
2026-09-17	Unavailable	$3,005,511,740	4 / 5
2026-09-18	Unavailable	$3,005,511,740	4 / 5
2026-09-19	Unavailable	$3,005,511,740	4 / 5
2026-09-20	Unavailable	$3,005,511,740	4 / 5
2026-09-21	Unavailable	$3,005,511,740	4 / 5
2026-09-22	Unavailable	$3,005,511,740	4 / 5
2026-09-23	Unavailable	$3,005,511,740	4 / 5
2026-09-24	Unavailable	$3,005,511,740	4 / 5
2026-09-25	Unavailable	$3,005,511,740	4 / 5
2026-09-26	Unavailable	$3,005,511,740	4 / 5
2026-09-27	Unavailable	$3,005,511,740	4 / 5
2026-09-28	Unavailable	$3,005,511,740	4 / 5
2026-09-29	Unavailable	$3,005,511,740	4 / 5
2026-09-30	Unavailable	$3,005,511,740	4 / 5
2026-10-01	Unavailable	$3,005,511,740	4 / 5
2026-10-02	Unavailable	$3,005,511,740	4 / 5
2026-10-03	Unavailable	$3,005,511,740	4 / 5
2026-10-04	Unavailable	$3,005,511,740	4 / 5
2026-10-05	Unavailable	$3,005,511,740	4 / 5
2026-10-06	Unavailable	$3,005,511,740	4 / 5
2026-10-07	Unavailable	$3,005,511,740	4 / 5
2026-10-08	Unavailable	$3,004,111,740	4 / 5
2026-10-09	Unavailable	$3,004,111,740	4 / 5
2026-10-10	Unavailable	$3,004,111,740	4 / 5
2026-10-11	Unavailable	$3,002,599,724	4 / 5
2026-10-12	Unavailable	$3,002,599,724	4 / 5
2026-10-13	Unavailable	$3,002,599,724	4 / 5
2026-10-14	Unavailable	$3,002,599,724	4 / 5
2026-10-15	Unavailable	$3,002,599,724	4 / 5
2026-10-16	Unavailable	$3,002,599,724	4 / 5
2026-10-17	Unavailable	$3,002,599,724	4 / 5
2026-10-18	Unavailable	$3,002,599,724	4 / 5
2026-10-19	Unavailable	$3,002,599,724	4 / 5
2026-10-20	Unavailable	$3,002,599,724	4 / 5
2026-10-21	Unavailable	$3,002,599,724	4 / 5
2026-10-22	Unavailable	$3,002,599,724	4 / 5
2026-10-23	Unavailable	$3,002,599,724	4 / 5
2026-10-24	Unavailable	$3,002,599,724	4 / 5

Revenue and EPS estimates track expectations. They are not delivered results or like-for-like proof of a required annual path.

Compare required revenue and earnings

Analyst view

Monthly observations

Buy / Strong BuyHoldSell / Strong Sell

Exact monthly counts

Monthly rating snapshots · fmp. Missing snapshots are not zero.
Date	Buy*	Hold
2026-05-01	2	6
2026-06-01	1	6
2026-07-01	1	6
2026-08-01	1	5
2026-09-01	1	5
2026-10-01	2	5

*Buy includes Strong Buy; Sell includes Strong Sell. Monthly counts describe the analyst mix, not the firms behind each recent action.

Latest: 2 Buy / Strong Buy · 5 Hold · 0 Sell / Strong Sell

0 upgrades0 downgrades0 maintains

Recent actions · Sep 25–Oct 24 · 0 recorded

Price-target changes

30 days

Individual price-target observations are unavailable.

0 raises · 0 cuts · 0 unchanged · 0 without a comparable prior

How this is measured

Sep 25, 2026–Oct 24, 2026. Each firm's latest positive target is paired only with its immediately prior positive target from the same provider, at most 180 days earlier. Unmatched observations have one dot; conflicting observations are not compared.

Outlook in Brief

The evidence, the remaining questions, and what comes next

What's improving

No recovery evidence is reported in the available driver assessments.

Still unresolved / key risks

Marketplace revenue grows at least 5% in next 12 monthsPublished status: Broken
Meet full-year 2026 EBITDA and free cash flow guidanceDirect metric needs a verified mapping
Revenue grows at least 4% in next 12 monthsRevenue growth: 3.61%

Next proof point

Nov 5, 2026

Look for updated results and guidance against the published targets, plus direct evidence for unresolved drivers.

Review earnings

Bottom line

3 of 4 published conditions remain under pressure or need verification. The next results need to address those conditions.

The dated weekly assessment and its assumptions are available in Read detailed Outlook.

Historical risk context

Observed price history; separate from operating scenarios

Price sensitivity

2.8%Typical daily move · historical

Downside history

-62.5%Maximum drawdown · trailing year

Read detailed Outlook Company context, assumptions & risks

Sabre outlook in detail

The weekly editorial context below is a separate assessment from the dated monitor evidence above. Recovery observations do not automatically change the published thesis. Unverified outside influences are hypotheses, not measured driver evidence.

Updated Oct 24, 2026

What kind of bet this is

This is a higher-risk recovery and execution story, not yet a proven durable compounder. The long-term thesis is intact, with recent financial performance strong, while earnings quality remains loss-making and management execution is viewed as volatile.

What's priced into Sabre

SABR is described as cheap versus peers, but confidence in that valuation assessment is low. The expectations gap is slightly negative, and the pricing signal is judged justified with low fragility, so the evidence does not suggest that the market is relying on unusually fragile assumptions.

What the fundamentals likely do

Near-term results show progress: second-quarter revenue grew 4% year on year and normalized Adjusted EBITDA rose 19%. Management raised its full-year 2026 EBITDA and free cash flow guidance, while Marketplace revenue growth remains a stated priority; the latest quarter was still missed, and free cash flow guidance remains negative. AI initiatives are a strategic focus, but their financial impact is not yet quantified.

What Sabre hinges on

Over the next few quarters, reaffirming the recently raised guidance would support management credibility; a guidance cut would weaken it. Sector bellwether results may affect the near-term backdrop, while the multi-year case also depends on continued Marketplace growth and whether AI offerings produce measurable results. Recent agreement termination and litigation add risks, but the evidence gives little detail on their business impact.