Rush Street Interactive, Inc. (RSI)

NYSEConsumer DiscretionaryGambling, Resorts & CasinosSnapshot 2026-10-23

$15.90-2.81%

Close 2026-10-23 · 1-day change

Investment OutlookAs of Oct 24, 2026

What could strengthen or challenge Rush Street Interactive, Inc.’s outlook?

The long-term thesis, the evidence coming in, and the environment around it. Thesis dated Jul 8, 2026.

Higher potential upsideImproving expectations

Next-FY EPS estimate change · 30 days

-0.6%

+10% or more+5%0%−5%−10% or less

0.84 → 0.83 EPS · FY ending Dec 31, 2027 · 6 analysts

Higher risk of downsideWeakening expectations

One observable signal. This measures changing earnings expectations, not the probability of a gain or loss.

How this is measured

Change in the same fiscal period’s mean EPS estimate from Sep 24, 2026 to Oct 24, 2026: (new ÷ prior − 1). Contributor count changed from 6 to 6; this is not the number of analysts revising. Source: FMP consensus snapshots. The ±10% axis is a display range.

Measure / period	Management expectations	Analyst expectations
FY 2026 · Q4
Revenue	—	428.4M
EPS	—	0.188
FY 2026 · Annual
Revenue	$1.56B–$1.6B	1.58B
EPS	—	0.616
EBITDA	$245M–$265Mnon-GAAP	—
FY 2027 · Annual
Revenue	—	1.83B
EPS	—	0.834

What the Thesis Depends On

4 published thesis conditions, with dated milestones shown separately.

Key Factor	Why It Matters	Current Status	Break Condition	Latest Evidence
Adjusted EBITDA reaches $230M-$250M in 2026	Profit grows with adjusted EBITDA near $240 million.	Intact	Adjusted EBITDA falls below $200M in FY26	Direct metric needs a verified mapping The published measure or accounting basis is not supported by an exact source binding. Source date unavailableLast status assessment Oct 24, 2026Compare required operating outcomes Compare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement.
Leadership remains stable without major insider selling	A supporting condition in Rush Street Interactive, Inc.'s published investment case. The stated target is No significant insider stock selling.	Under Pressure	Major insider selling or leadership departures occur	Direct metric needs a verified mapping The published measure or accounting basis is not supported by an exact source binding. Source date unavailableLast status assessment Oct 24, 2026Compare required operating outcomes Compare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement.
Maintain positive net income growth	Net income is rising, showing positive momentum.	Intact	Net income declines year over year	Net income: $11.546M FY2026-Q2; GAAP. Published target: Positive net income growth. Target period is not explicitly aligned with this observation. Source published Jul 30, 202611,546,000 USD · source valueSource reportLast status assessment Oct 24, 2026 Measurement source consolidated · GAAP FY2026-Q2 · Period ending Jun 30, 2026 Source: company_financial_results. Reference: 134336c0-a087-4397-aba4-8dd50cbf1d22. Source status: eligible. Compare required operating outcomes Compare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement. Management context Stated as a priority in 2 of last 2 quarters. Net income grew from $26.2 million in 2026-Q1 to $29.3 million in 2026-Q2, and from $5.3 million in 2025-Q1 to $29.3 million in 2026-Q2, demonstrating delivering trajectory of positive net income growth. Delivery assessment Oct 24, 2026
Revenue grows to $1.49B-$1.54B in 2026	A primary condition in Rush Street Interactive, Inc.'s published investment case. The stated target is $1.49B-$1.54B.	Intact	Revenue falls below $1.1B in FY26	Revenue: $393.776M FY2026-Q2; GAAP. Published target: $1.49B-$1.54B. Target period is not explicitly aligned with this observation. Source published Jul 30, 2026393,776,000 USD · source valueSource reportLast status assessment Oct 24, 2026 Measurement source consolidated · GAAP FY2026-Q2 · Period ending Jun 30, 2026 Source: company_financial_results. Reference: 134336c0-a087-4397-aba4-8dd50cbf1d22. Source status: eligible. Compare required operating outcomes Compare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement.

Stored thesis · Jul 8, 2026. Latest Evidence uses source-matched measurements where available, alongside the last thesis-monitor assessment. Source periods and assessment dates are shown separately. A new measurement does not automatically change the published status or verify an older target.

Incoming Evidence

Compare these dated observations with the operating requirements above

Expectations trend

Same fiscal period

FY2027 · fiscal year ending 2027-12-31 · fmp

FY2027 EPS$0.83

$0.84 → $0.83 · observed estimates

FY2027 revenue$1.83B

$1.76B → $1.83B · observed estimates

Exact estimates & source dates

One fiscal period and provider throughout. At least five contributors are required for each plotted metric; missing coverage stays a gap. Axes show the observed range. Counts measure coverage, not revisions.

FY2027 estimate observations · fmp
Snapshot	EPS	Revenue	EPS / revenue analysts
2026-07-24	$0.84	$1,761,238,290	8 / 11
2026-07-25	$0.84	$1,761,238,290	8 / 11
2026-07-26	$0.84	$1,762,874,650	8 / 11
2026-07-27	$0.84	$1,762,874,650	8 / 11
2026-07-28	$0.84	$1,762,874,650	8 / 11
2026-07-29	$0.83	$1,763,692,830	8 / 11
2026-07-30	$0.83	$1,772,698,740	8 / 11
2026-07-31	$0.84	$1,818,196,600	8 / 11
2026-08-01	Unavailable	$1,831,216,636	4 / 8
2026-08-02	$0.85	$1,836,889,880	9 / 11
2026-08-03	$0.85	$1,836,889,880	9 / 11
2026-08-04	Unavailable	$1,836,898,455	4 / 8
2026-08-05	Unavailable	$1,836,898,455	4 / 8
2026-08-06	$0.85	$1,836,889,880	9 / 11
2026-08-08	$0.85	$1,836,889,880	9 / 11
2026-08-09	$0.85	$1,836,889,880	9 / 11
2026-08-10	$0.85	$1,836,889,880	9 / 11
2026-08-12	$0.85	$1,836,889,880	9 / 11
2026-08-13	Unavailable	$1,836,898,455	4 / 8
2026-08-14	Unavailable	$1,836,898,455	4 / 8
2026-08-15	Unavailable	$1,836,898,455	4 / 8
2026-08-16	Unavailable	$1,836,898,455	4 / 8
2026-08-17	Unavailable	$1,836,898,455	4 / 8
2026-08-18	Unavailable	$1,836,898,455	4 / 8
2026-08-19	Unavailable	$1,836,898,455	4 / 8
2026-08-20	$0.84	$1,838,560,182	5 / 8
2026-08-21	$0.84	$1,838,560,182	5 / 8
2026-08-22	$0.84	$1,838,560,182	5 / 8
2026-08-23	$0.84	$1,838,560,182	5 / 8
2026-08-24	$0.84	$1,838,560,182	5 / 8
2026-08-25	$0.84	$1,838,560,182	5 / 8
2026-08-26	$0.84	$1,838,560,182	5 / 8
2026-08-27	$0.84	$1,838,560,182	5 / 8
2026-08-28	$0.84	$1,838,560,182	5 / 8
2026-08-29	$0.84	$1,838,560,182	5 / 8
2026-08-30	$0.84	$1,838,560,182	5 / 8
2026-08-31	$0.84	$1,838,560,182	5 / 8
2026-09-01	$0.84	$1,838,560,182	5 / 8
2026-09-02	$0.84	$1,838,560,182	5 / 8
2026-09-03	$0.84	$1,838,560,182	5 / 8
2026-09-04	$0.84	$1,838,578,364	5 / 8
2026-09-05	$0.84	$1,838,578,364	5 / 8
2026-09-06	$0.84	$1,838,578,364	5 / 8
2026-09-07	$0.84	$1,838,578,364	5 / 8
2026-09-08	$0.84	$1,838,578,364	5 / 8
2026-09-09	$0.84	$1,838,578,364	5 / 8
2026-09-10	$0.84	$1,839,078,364	5 / 8
2026-09-11	$0.84	$1,839,078,364	5 / 8
2026-09-12	$0.84	$1,839,078,364	5 / 8
2026-09-13	$0.84	$1,839,078,364	5 / 8
2026-09-14	$0.84	$1,839,078,364	5 / 8
2026-09-15	$0.84	$1,839,044,309	5 / 8
2026-09-16	$0.84	$1,839,044,309	5 / 8
2026-09-17	$0.84	$1,839,044,309	5 / 8
2026-09-18	$0.84	$1,839,044,309	5 / 8
2026-09-19	$0.84	$1,839,044,309	5 / 8
2026-09-20	$0.84	$1,839,044,309	5 / 8
2026-09-21	$0.84	$1,839,044,309	5 / 8
2026-09-22	$0.84	$1,839,044,309	5 / 8
2026-09-23	$0.84	$1,840,840,617	5 / 8
2026-09-24	$0.84	$1,840,840,617	6 / 8
2026-09-25	$0.84	$1,840,840,617	6 / 9
2026-09-26	$0.84	$1,840,840,617	6 / 9
2026-09-27	$0.84	$1,840,840,617	6 / 9
2026-09-28	$0.84	$1,840,840,617	6 / 9
2026-09-29	$0.84	$1,840,840,617	6 / 9
2026-09-30	$0.84	$1,840,840,617	6 / 9
2026-10-01	$0.84	$1,840,757,283	6 / 9
2026-10-02	$0.84	$1,840,757,283	6 / 9
2026-10-03	$0.84	$1,840,757,283	6 / 9
2026-10-04	$0.84	$1,840,757,283	6 / 9
2026-10-05	$0.84	$1,840,757,283	6 / 9
2026-10-06	$0.84	$1,840,757,283	6 / 9
2026-10-07	$0.84	$1,840,757,283	6 / 9
2026-10-08	$0.84	$1,840,757,283	6 / 9
2026-10-09	$0.84	$1,839,823,283	6 / 9
2026-10-10	$0.84	$1,830,064,617	6 / 9
2026-10-11	$0.84	$1,830,064,617	6 / 9
2026-10-12	$0.84	$1,830,064,617	6 / 9
2026-10-13	$0.84	$1,830,064,617	6 / 9
2026-10-14	$0.84	$1,830,064,617	6 / 9
2026-10-15	$0.84	$1,830,064,617	6 / 9
2026-10-16	$0.84	$1,830,064,617	6 / 9
2026-10-17	$0.84	$1,830,064,617	6 / 9
2026-10-18	$0.84	$1,830,064,617	6 / 9
2026-10-19	$0.84	$1,830,064,617	6 / 9
2026-10-20	$0.84	$1,829,721,147	6 / 9
2026-10-21	$0.84	$1,830,638,170	6 / 9
2026-10-22	$0.84	$1,830,638,170	6 / 10
2026-10-23	$0.84	$1,830,638,170	6 / 10
2026-10-24	$0.83	$1,830,636,631	6 / 10

Revenue and EPS estimates track expectations. They are not delivered results or like-for-like proof of a required annual path.

Compare required revenue and earnings

Analyst view

Monthly observations

Buy / Strong BuyHoldSell / Strong Sell

Exact monthly counts

Monthly rating snapshots · fmp. Missing snapshots are not zero.
Date	Buy*	Hold
2026-05-01	10	1
2026-06-01	10	1
2026-07-01	10	1
2026-08-01	10	1
2026-09-01	11	1
2026-10-01	12	2

*Buy includes Strong Buy; Sell includes Strong Sell. Monthly counts describe the analyst mix, not the firms behind each recent action.

Latest: 12 Buy / Strong Buy · 2 Hold · 0 Sell / Strong Sell

0 upgrades0 downgrades3 maintains

Recent actions · Sep 25–Oct 24 · 3 recorded

Price-target changes

30 days

○ Previous · ● Latest · common dollar scale

BarclaysOct 23

$24.00New observation · no comparable prior

Morgan StanleyOct 19

$22.00New observation · no comparable prior

SusquehannaOct 9 · prior Jul 29

$36.00 → $27.00-25.0%

$0$19.80$39.60

0 raises · 1 cuts · 0 unchanged · 2 without a comparable prior

How this is measured

Sep 25, 2026–Oct 24, 2026. Each firm's latest positive target is paired only with its immediately prior positive target from the same provider, at most 180 days earlier. Unmatched observations have one dot; conflicting observations are not compared.

Outlook in Brief

The evidence, the remaining questions, and what comes next

What's improving

No recovery evidence is reported in the available driver assessments.

Still unresolved / key risks

Adjusted EBITDA reaches $230M-$250M in 2026Direct metric needs a verified mapping
Leadership remains stable without major insider sellingPublished status: Under Pressure
Maintain positive net income growthNet income: $11.546M
Revenue grows to $1.49B-$1.54B in 2026Revenue: $393.776M

Next proof point

Oct 28, 2026

Look for updated results and guidance against the published targets, plus direct evidence for unresolved drivers.

Review earnings

Bottom line

4 of 4 published conditions remain under pressure or need verification. The next results need to address those conditions.

The dated weekly assessment and its assumptions are available in Read detailed Outlook.

Historical risk context

Observed price history; separate from operating scenarios

Price sensitivity

1.7%Typical daily move · historical

Downside history

-53.9%Maximum drawdown · trailing year

Read detailed Outlook Company context, assumptions & risks

Rush Street Interactive, Inc. outlook in detail

The weekly editorial context below is a separate assessment from the dated monitor evidence above. Recovery observations do not automatically change the published thesis. Unverified outside influences are hypotheses, not measured driver evidence.

Updated Oct 24, 2026

What kind of bet this is

RSI is an execution-led growth business, with recent results and guidance pointing to improving fundamentals. Its long-term thesis is intact, and the recent signal shifted from mixed to mildly favorable, though risk remains elevated.

What's priced into Rush Street Interactive, Inc.

The evidence tags expectations as justified, with no major fragility flags, but RSI is expensive versus peers. The valuation model has low confidence and shows a negative expectations gap, so the market’s assumptions may leave limited room for execution setbacks.

What the fundamentals likely do

Near-term results show revenue, adjusted EBITDA, and net income rising, while management has raised its 2026 revenue and adjusted EBITDA guidance. However, RSI has recently missed earnings, and a reversal that leads to guidance cuts would add a credibility concern.

What Rush Street Interactive, Inc. hinges on

The multi-year view depends on management continuing to deliver against its raised 2026 goals and sustain positive net income growth. Near term, guidance credibility and results from sector bellwethers such as LVS, DKNG, and WYNN are key swing factors.