Red Robin Gourmet Burgers Inc (RRGB)
NASDAQConsumer DiscretionaryRestaurantsSnapshot 2026-09-09
$8.20-2.50%
Close 2026-09-09 · 1-day change
NASDAQConsumer DiscretionaryRestaurantsSnapshot 2026-09-09
Intact: The reason to own it still holds.
Red Robin plans revenue near $71.5M in 2026. It aims to keep restaurant profit at 13%. Selling 86 restaurants helps cut debt and improve capital use. Positive EBITDA guidance supports profit goals.
The company is still losing money and faces volatile management. Selling many locations may hurt growth. Profit margins are thin at 13%. Market stress shows risks to the turnaround.
The market expects about 63% revenue growth, but the company guides only ~$71.5M revenue for 2026. Our fair value is near $35, reflecting a cheap valuation versus peers. We see risk in profit and capital plans amid recent selloff.
Breaks if: Capex exceeds $30M or falls below $25M in FY26
Breaks if: Operating profit margin falls below 12% in FY26
Breaks if: Revenue falls below $70M in FY26
This is not a price target or investment advice.
A long-form read on the 1–3 year hold thesis. It updates when the weekly evidence changes.
This investment represents a turnaround story with a focus on operational improvements and refranchising. The current thesis state is cautious, as recent performance has been neutral and management faces elevated risks.
The market appears to price RRGB as a cheap option compared to its peers, with a significant expectations gap. However, the valuation is underpinned by a low confidence level in the model, suggesting that the market does not fully trust the recovery narrative.
Fundamentals are likely to show some improvement as management executes its First Choice Plan, with recent revenue growth and stable profit margins. However, there is a notable risk of earnings misses, given the company's volatile history and the current economic backdrop.
The thesis hinges on management's ability to maintain operational momentum and navigate sector headwinds. Key factors include guidance updates, inflation trends, and performance of sector leaders like MCD and SBUX, which could influence investor sentiment.
The most important moves since the prior daily snapshot.
Yes, our read has weakened. The latest earnings miss contributed to this change. Additionally, the casual dining industry is facing challenges, with many chains closing underperforming locations. This trend suggests a shrinking footprint for casual dining, which may impact RRGB's performance.
as of 2026-09-09
Review the evidence to watch, what would become a concern, and what would make it less concerning.
Not investment advice. Scores describe historical and current data; they are not forecasts of future returns. Consult a licensed advisor before making investment decisions.
Over the next 1 to 3 years, RRGB's performance will depend on effective execution and external economic conditions. Not investment advice.