Rapid7, Inc. (RPD)

NASDAQInformation TechnologySoftware - InfrastructureSnapshot 2026-10-23

$14.91+1.22%

Close 2026-10-23 · 1-day change

Investment OutlookAs of Oct 24, 2026

What could strengthen or challenge Rapid7, Inc.’s outlook?

The long-term thesis, the evidence coming in, and the environment around it. Thesis dated Jul 8, 2026.

Higher potential upsideImproving expectations

Next-FY EPS estimate change · 30 days

-0.1%

+10% or more+5%0%−5%−10% or less

1.83 → 1.83 EPS · FY ending Dec 31, 2027 · 14 analysts

Higher risk of downsideWeakening expectations

One observable signal. This measures changing earnings expectations, not the probability of a gain or loss.

How this is measured

Change in the same fiscal period’s mean EPS estimate from Sep 24, 2026 to Oct 24, 2026: (new ÷ prior − 1). Contributor count changed from 14 to 14; this is not the number of analysts revising. Source: FMP consensus snapshots. The ±10% axis is a display range.

Measure / period	Management expectations	Analyst expectations
FY 2026 · Q3
EPS	$80.1non-GAAP	—
FY 2026 · Q4
Revenue	—	209.32M
EPS	—	0.541
FY 2026 · Annual
Revenue	—	838.97M
EPS	$79.4non-GAAP	1.798
Free cash flow	About $130M	—
FY 2027 · Annual
Revenue	—	830M
EPS	—	1.826

What the Thesis Depends On

4 published thesis conditions, with dated milestones shown separately.

Key Factor	Why It Matters	Current Status	Break Condition	Latest Evidence
Maintain non-GAAP EPS of $1.52 to $1.60 in 2026	A primary condition in Rapid7, Inc.'s published investment case. The stated target is ~$1.56.	Broken	EPS falls below $1.52 in FY26	Direct metric needs a verified mapping The published measure or accounting basis is not supported by an exact source binding. Source date unavailableLast status assessment Oct 24, 2026Compare required operating outcomes Compare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement. Management context Stated as a priority in 3 of last 3 quarters. Non-GAAP diluted EPS guidance for 2026 was reaffirmed in the range $1.78 to $1.83. Actual GAAP diluted EPS was $0.02 in 2026-Q1 and $0.09 in 2026-Q2, showing early year EPS below guidance but improving quarter-over-quarter, indicating limited progress toward full-year EPS targets so far. Delivery assessment Oct 24, 2026
Generate free cash flow of $125M to $135M in 2026	Free cash flow is targeted at $130M.	Broken	Free cash flow falls below $125M in FY26	Free cash flow: $35.834M FY2026-Q2; GAAP. Published target: ~$130M. Target period is not explicitly aligned with this observation. Source published Aug 10, 202635,834,000 USD · calculatedSource reportLast status assessment Oct 24, 2026 Measurement source consolidated · GAAP FY2026-Q2 · Period ending Jun 30, 2026 Source: stock_quarterly_financials_fmp. Reference: 2026-Q2. Source status: unverified. Compare required operating outcomes Compare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement. Management context Stated as a priority in 3 of last 3 quarters. Free cash flow guidance for 2026 is approximately $130 million. Actual net cash from operating activities was $39.8 million in 2026-Q1 and $37.0 million in 2026-Q2, showing steady cash generation but no full-year free cash flow reported yet, indicating early progress consistent with guidance. Delivery assessment Oct 24, 2026
Successful leadership transition and AI strategy execution	A supporting condition in Rapid7, Inc.'s published investment case. The stated target is Stable or improving execution and AI-driven growth.	Improving	Leadership fails to deliver growth or AI strategy stalls	Qualitative: CEO transition + AI focus advancing CEO transition, AI investment, restructuring, and earnings beats support improving execution. Context reviewed through Oct 23, 2026Last status assessment Oct 24, 2026Compare required operating outcomes Compare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement.
Achieve 2026 revenue of $836M to $842M	A primary condition in Rapid7, Inc.'s published investment case. The stated target is ~$839M.	Broken	Annual revenue falls below $836M in FY26	Revenue: $210.883M FY2026-Q2; GAAP. Published target: ~$839M. Target period is not explicitly aligned with this observation. Source published Aug 10, 2026210,883,000 USD · source valueSource reportLast status assessment Oct 24, 2026 Measurement source consolidated · GAAP FY2026-Q2 · Period ending Jun 30, 2026 Source: company_financial_results. Reference: ba10b630-7fb3-48e6-a4b2-a06506d7d302. Source status: eligible. Compare required operating outcomes Compare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement.

Stored thesis · Jul 8, 2026. Latest Evidence uses source-matched measurements where available, alongside the last thesis-monitor assessment. Source periods and assessment dates are shown separately. A new measurement does not automatically change the published status or verify an older target.

Incoming Evidence

Compare these dated observations with the operating requirements above

Expectations trend

Same fiscal period

FY2027 · fiscal year ending 2027-12-31 · fmp

FY2027 EPS$1.83

$1.54 → $1.83 · observed estimates

FY2027 revenue$0.83B

$0.84B → $0.83B · observed estimates

Exact estimates & source dates

One fiscal period and provider throughout. At least five contributors are required for each plotted metric; missing coverage stays a gap. Axes show the observed range. Counts measure coverage, not revisions.

FY2027 estimate observations · fmp
Snapshot	EPS	Revenue	EPS / revenue analysts
2026-07-24	$1.54	$837,208,438	15 / 19
2026-07-25	$1.54	$837,208,438	15 / 19
2026-07-26	$1.54	$836,948,049	15 / 19
2026-07-27	$1.54	$836,948,049	15 / 19
2026-07-28	$1.55	$836,985,770	25 / 24
2026-07-29	$1.54	$836,948,047	15 / 19
2026-07-30	$1.54	$836,948,047	15 / 19
2026-07-31	$1.55	$836,985,770	25 / 24
2026-08-01	$1.54	$836,948,047	15 / 19
2026-08-02	$1.55	$836,985,770	25 / 24
2026-08-03	$1.54	$836,948,047	15 / 19
2026-08-04	$1.54	$836,946,229	15 / 19
2026-08-05	$1.55	$836,985,770	25 / 24
2026-08-06	$1.55	$836,985,770	25 / 24
2026-08-08	$1.55	$836,985,770	25 / 24
2026-08-09	$1.54	$836,946,229	15 / 19
2026-08-10	$1.55	$836,985,770	25 / 24
2026-08-12	$1.54	$836,946,229	15 / 19
2026-08-13	$1.76	$830,355,050	24 / 24
2026-08-14	$1.54	$836,946,229	15 / 19
2026-08-15	$1.54	$836,946,229	15 / 19
2026-08-16	$1.54	$836,946,229	14 / 19
2026-08-17	$1.54	$836,946,229	14 / 19
2026-08-18	$1.54	$836,946,229	14 / 19
2026-08-19	$1.54	$836,946,229	14 / 19
2026-08-20	$1.83	$830,333,327	14 / 18
2026-08-21	$1.83	$830,333,327	14 / 18
2026-08-22	$1.83	$830,333,327	14 / 18
2026-08-23	$1.83	$830,333,327	14 / 18
2026-08-24	$1.83	$830,333,327	14 / 18
2026-08-25	$1.83	$830,333,327	14 / 18
2026-08-26	$1.83	$830,333,327	14 / 18
2026-08-27	$1.83	$830,333,327	14 / 18
2026-08-28	$1.83	$830,333,327	14 / 18
2026-08-29	$1.83	$830,333,327	14 / 18
2026-08-30	$1.83	$830,333,327	14 / 18
2026-08-31	$1.83	$830,333,327	14 / 18
2026-09-01	$1.83	$830,333,327	14 / 18
2026-09-02	$1.83	$830,333,327	14 / 18
2026-09-03	$1.83	$830,333,327	14 / 18
2026-09-04	$1.83	$830,333,327	14 / 18
2026-09-05	$1.83	$830,333,327	14 / 18
2026-09-06	$1.83	$830,333,327	14 / 18
2026-09-07	$1.83	$830,333,327	14 / 18
2026-09-08	$1.83	$830,333,327	14 / 18
2026-09-09	$1.83	$830,333,327	14 / 18
2026-09-10	$1.83	$830,333,327	14 / 18
2026-09-11	$1.83	$830,333,327	14 / 18
2026-09-12	$1.83	$830,333,327	14 / 18
2026-09-13	$1.83	$830,333,327	14 / 18
2026-09-14	$1.83	$830,333,327	14 / 18
2026-09-15	$1.83	$830,333,327	14 / 18
2026-09-16	$1.83	$830,331,549	14 / 18
2026-09-17	$1.83	$830,331,549	14 / 18
2026-09-18	$1.83	$830,331,549	14 / 18
2026-09-19	$1.83	$830,331,549	14 / 18
2026-09-20	$1.83	$830,331,549	14 / 18
2026-09-21	$1.83	$830,331,549	14 / 18
2026-09-22	$1.83	$830,331,549	14 / 18
2026-09-23	$1.83	$830,331,549	14 / 18
2026-09-24	$1.83	$830,331,549	14 / 18
2026-09-25	$1.83	$830,331,549	14 / 18
2026-09-26	$1.83	$830,331,549	14 / 18
2026-09-27	$1.83	$830,331,549	14 / 18
2026-09-28	$1.83	$830,331,549	14 / 18
2026-09-29	$1.83	$830,331,549	14 / 18
2026-09-30	$1.83	$830,331,549	14 / 18
2026-10-01	$1.83	$830,331,549	14 / 18
2026-10-02	$1.83	$830,321,054	14 / 18
2026-10-03	$1.83	$830,321,054	14 / 18
2026-10-04	$1.83	$830,321,054	14 / 18
2026-10-05	$1.83	$830,321,054	14 / 18
2026-10-06	$1.83	$830,321,054	14 / 18
2026-10-07	$1.83	$830,332,912	14 / 18
2026-10-08	$1.83	$830,332,912	14 / 18
2026-10-09	$1.83	$830,332,912	14 / 18
2026-10-10	$1.83	$830,332,912	14 / 18
2026-10-11	$1.83	$830,332,912	14 / 18
2026-10-12	$1.83	$830,332,912	14 / 18
2026-10-13	$1.83	$830,332,912	14 / 18
2026-10-14	$1.83	$830,332,912	14 / 18
2026-10-15	$1.83	$830,332,912	14 / 18
2026-10-16	$1.83	$830,360,184	14 / 18
2026-10-17	$1.83	$830,360,184	14 / 18
2026-10-18	$1.83	$830,360,184	14 / 18
2026-10-19	$1.83	$830,360,184	14 / 18
2026-10-20	$1.83	$830,360,184	14 / 18
2026-10-21	$1.83	$829,996,548	14 / 18
2026-10-22	$1.83	$829,996,548	14 / 18
2026-10-23	$1.83	$829,996,548	14 / 18
2026-10-24	$1.83	$829,996,548	14 / 18

Revenue and EPS estimates track expectations. They are not delivered results or like-for-like proof of a required annual path.

Compare required revenue and earnings

Analyst view

Monthly observations

Buy / Strong BuyHoldSell / Strong Sell

Exact monthly counts

Monthly rating snapshots · fmp. Missing snapshots are not zero.
Date	Buy*	Hold	Sell*
2026-05-01	4	22	2
2026-06-01	3	22	2
2026-07-01	3	21	3
2026-08-01	2	20	5
2026-09-01	2	19	6
2026-10-01	2	18	6

*Buy includes Strong Buy; Sell includes Strong Sell. Monthly counts describe the analyst mix, not the firms behind each recent action.

Latest: 2 Buy / Strong Buy · 18 Hold · 6 Sell / Strong Sell

0 upgrades0 downgrades1 maintains

Recent actions · Sep 25–Oct 24 · 1 recorded

Price-target changes

30 days

○ Previous · ● Latest · common dollar scale

Mizuho SecuritiesOct 15 · prior Jul 15

$11.00 → $13.00+18.2%

$0$7.15$14.30

1 raises · 0 cuts · 0 unchanged · 0 without a comparable prior

How this is measured

Sep 25, 2026–Oct 24, 2026. Each firm's latest positive target is paired only with its immediately prior positive target from the same provider, at most 180 days earlier. Unmatched observations have one dot; conflicting observations are not compared.

Outlook in Brief

The evidence, the remaining questions, and what comes next

What's improving

No recovery evidence is reported in the available driver assessments.

Still unresolved / key risks

Maintain non-GAAP EPS of $1.52 to $1.60 in 2026Published status: Broken
Generate free cash flow of $125M to $135M in 2026Published status: Broken
Achieve 2026 revenue of $836M to $842MPublished status: Broken

Next proof point

Nov 4, 2026

Look for updated results and guidance against the published targets, plus direct evidence for unresolved drivers.

Review earnings

Bottom line

3 of 4 published conditions remain under pressure or need verification. The next results need to address those conditions.

The dated weekly assessment and its assumptions are available in Read detailed Outlook.

Historical risk context

Observed price history; separate from operating scenarios

Price sensitivity

3.0%Typical daily move · historical

Downside history

-73.7%Maximum drawdown · trailing year

Read detailed Outlook Company context, assumptions & risks

Rapid7, Inc. outlook in detail

The weekly editorial context below is a separate assessment from the dated monitor evidence above. Recovery observations do not automatically change the published thesis. Unverified outside influences are hypotheses, not measured driver evidence.

Updated Oct 24, 2026

What kind of bet this is

This is a high-risk cybersecurity company with a transition-stage growth thesis, rather than a proven growth compounder today. The long-term thesis is intact, but recent financial performance and management execution are mixed.

What's priced into Rapid7, Inc.

The valuation evidence is low confidence and mixed: one measure points to RPD being cheap versus peers, while another shows a small premium. The market is not showing concentrated fragility, and the priced-in assessment is tagged as justified, but the evidence does not establish a clear expectations gap.

What the fundamentals likely do

Near term, management is reaffirming 2026 revenue and non-GAAP EPS guidance, while recent revenue declined year over year and GAAP EPS improved from the first quarter to the second. Its focus on the core platform and AI foundation may support the multi-year thesis, but growth progress remains limited so far. A guidance cut on the next call is a meaningful risk, despite the current assessment of low miss risk.

What Rapid7, Inc. hinges on

The multi-year view hinges on whether investment in the core platform and AI foundation leads to stronger growth while management delivers on its 2026 guidance. Near term, a guidance cut would weaken the setup; Fed rate cuts or continued strong results and higher guidance from major technology companies would provide a more supportive sector backdrop.