Rapid7, Inc. (RPD)
NASDAQInformation TechnologySoftware - InfrastructureSnapshot 2026-09-09
$10.56+0.96%
Close 2026-09-09 · 1-day change
NASDAQInformation TechnologySoftware - InfrastructureSnapshot 2026-09-09
Broken: Primary pillar broken — Maintain non-GAAP EPS of $1.52 to $1.60 in 2026: FY26 EPS guidance $1.8 vs $1.52 floor.
Rapid7 has a new CEO focused on AI and growth. The company aims for $839M revenue and $1.56 EPS in 2026. Free cash flow is targeted at $130M. Recent earnings beats support execution.
Competition and transition headwinds may slow growth. EPS and cash flow progress is mixed. Analysts expect slight revenue decline next year.
The market expects about -2% revenue growth and values shares well below our $27.83 fair value. Our view is more optimistic on growth and cash flow.
Breaks if: EPS falls below $1.52 in FY26
Deliver non-GAAP diluted net income per share in the range of $1.78 to $1.83 for full-year 2026 as reaffirmed in multiple quarters.
This is not a price target or investment advice.
A long-form read on the 1–3 year hold thesis. It updates when the weekly evidence changes.
This investment thesis reflects a transitional phase for RPD, with a focus on core platform and AI growth. The current state is mixed, as recent financial performance shows some decline but remains competitive within its industry.
Valuation is currently viewed as cheap compared to peers, with a low fragility tier indicating that the market does not expect significant volatility. The expectations appear justified, as recent earnings results have been mixed but show resilience.
Fundamentals may continue to show mixed results in the near term, as management aims to achieve full-year revenue and EPS guidance despite recent declines. The company is in a transition phase, which could limit immediate growth metrics.
The thesis hinges on management's ability to execute its strategic priorities and external factors like potential Federal Reserve rate cuts and performance of sector leaders. Guidance cuts could negatively impact sentiment, while positive sector momentum could provide support.
The most important moves since the prior daily snapshot.
Yes, our read has weakened. The latest earnings beat is a positive sign. However, a sharp drop in the stock may be repricing the thesis. This suggests the market is reassessing the reasons to own RPD. The focus on AI and restructuring supports future growth potential.
as of 2026-09-09
Review the evidence to watch, what would become a concern, and what would make it less concerning.
Not investment advice. Scores describe historical and current data; they are not forecasts of future returns. Consult a licensed advisor before making investment decisions.
Stated as a priority in 3 of last 3 quarters. Non-GAAP diluted EPS guidance for 2026 was reaffirmed in the range $1.78 to $1.83. Actual GAAP diluted EPS was $0.02 in 2026-Q1 and $0.09 in 2026-Q2, showing early year EPS below guidance but improving quarter-over-quarter, indicating limited progress toward full-year EPS targets so far.
“Non-GAAP net income per share, diluted $1.78 to $1.83 reaffirmed.”
“Non-GAAP net income per share, diluted $1.52 to $1.60 reaffirmed.”
“Non-GAAP net income per share $1.50 to $1.60 guidance provided.”
Breaks if: Free cash flow falls below $125M in FY26
Deliver free cash flow in the range of $125 million to $135 million for full-year 2026 as reaffirmed in multiple quarters.
Stated as a priority in 3 of last 3 quarters. Free cash flow guidance for 2026 is approximately $130 million. Actual net cash from operating activities was $39.8 million in 2026-Q1 and $37.0 million in 2026-Q2, showing steady cash generation but no full-year free cash flow reported yet, indicating early progress consistent with guidance.
“Free cash flow guidance approximately $130 million reaffirmed.”
“Free cash flow guidance $125 to $135 million reaffirmed.”
“Free cash flow guidance $125 to $135 million provided.”
Breaks if: Leadership fails to deliver growth or AI strategy stalls
Breaks if: Annual revenue falls below $836M in FY26
Overall, RPD's long-term thesis remains intact, but it faces challenges in execution and market conditions. Not investment advice.