Root Inc/OH (ROOT)

NASDAQFinancialsInsurance - Property & CasualtySnapshot 2026-10-23

$52.88-1.84%

Close 2026-10-23 · 1-day change

Investment OutlookAs of Oct 24, 2026

What could strengthen or challenge Root Inc/OH’s outlook?

The long-term thesis, the evidence coming in, and the environment around it. Thesis dated Jul 8, 2026.

Higher potential upsideImproving expectations

Next-FY EPS estimate change · 30 days

Comparable estimates unavailable

+10% or more+5%0%−5%−10% or less

A matching fiscal period and sufficient coverage are required.

Higher risk of downsideWeakening expectations

One observable signal. This measures changing earnings expectations, not the probability of a gain or loss.

How this is measured

The calculation requires same-period, same-provider snapshots, positive EPS, at least five analysts and a baseline within three days of the requested lookback.

Measure / period	Management expectations	Analyst expectations
Quarter ending 2026-12-30
Revenue	—	382.8M
EPS	—	0.326
Annual ending 2026-12-31
Revenue	—	1.55B
EPS	—	4.58
Annual ending 2027-12-31
Revenue	—	1.55B
EPS	—	2.456

Management figures unavailable.

What the Thesis Depends On

4 published thesis conditions, with dated milestones shown separately.

Key Factor	Why It Matters	Current Status	Break Condition	Latest Evidence
Maintain financial flexibility with $200 million credit agreement	Profitability and financial flexibility improve with a $200 million credit agreement.	Intact	Credit agreement is terminated or materially impaired	Direct metric needs a verified mapping The published measure or accounting basis is not supported by an exact source binding. Source date unavailableLast status assessment Oct 24, 2026Compare required operating outcomes Compare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement.
EPS reaches at least $2.36 in FY25	A primary condition in Root Inc/OH's published investment case. The stated target is >=2.36 USD_PER_SHARE.	Broken	EPS falls below $2.36 in FY25	Diluted EPS: $1.49 per share FY2026-Q2; GAAP. Published target: >=2.36 USD_PER_SHARE. Target period is not explicitly aligned with this observation. Source published Aug 5, 20261.49 USD/share · source valueSource reportLast status assessment Oct 24, 2026 Measurement source consolidated · GAAP FY2026-Q2 · Period ending Jun 30, 2026 Source: company_financial_results. Reference: 820646ca-3518-4b6f-b0e6-324a35746d40. Source status: eligible. Compare required operating outcomes Compare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement.
Root's revenue reaches at least $1.5 billion in FY26	Root grows revenue to about $1.5 billion in 2026.	Intact	Revenue falls below $1.5 billion in FY26	Revenue: $389.2M FY2026-Q2; GAAP. Published target: >=1.5 USD_BILLIONS. Target period is not explicitly aligned with this observation. Source published Aug 5, 2026389,200,000 USD · source valueSource reportLast status assessment Oct 24, 2026 Measurement source consolidated · GAAP FY2026-Q2 · Period ending Jun 30, 2026 Source: company_financial_results. Reference: 820646ca-3518-4b6f-b0e6-324a35746d40. Source status: eligible. Compare required operating outcomes Compare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement.
Complete $75 million share repurchase program	The company has a strong share buyback plan of $75 million.	Intact	Buyback program is canceled or materially delayed	Direct metric needs a verified mapping The published measure or accounting basis is not supported by an exact source binding. Source date unavailableLast status assessment Oct 24, 2026Compare required operating outcomes Compare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement.

Stored thesis · Jul 8, 2026. Latest Evidence uses source-matched measurements where available, alongside the last thesis-monitor assessment. Source periods and assessment dates are shown separately. A new measurement does not automatically change the published status or verify an older target.

Incoming Evidence

Compare these dated observations with the operating requirements above

Expectations trend

Same fiscal period

FY2027 · fiscal year ending 2027-12-31 · fmp

FY2027 EPS: comparable history unavailable.

FY2027 revenue$1.55B

$1.67B → $1.55B · observed estimates

Exact estimates & source dates

One fiscal period and provider throughout. At least five contributors are required for each plotted metric; missing coverage stays a gap. Axes show the observed range. Counts measure coverage, not revisions.

FY2027 estimate observations · fmp
Snapshot	EPS	Revenue	EPS / revenue analysts
2026-07-24	Unavailable	$1,674,250,290	2 / 5
2026-07-25	Unavailable	$1,674,250,290	2 / 5
2026-07-26	Unavailable	$1,674,250,290	2 / 5
2026-07-27	Unavailable	$1,674,250,290	2 / 5
2026-07-28	Unavailable	$1,674,250,290	2 / 5
2026-07-29	Unavailable	$1,674,250,290	2 / 5
2026-07-30	Unavailable	$1,703,928,709	2 / 5
2026-07-31	Unavailable	$1,703,928,709	2 / 5
2026-08-01	Unavailable	$1,703,928,709	2 / 5
2026-08-02	Unavailable	$1,674,250,290	2 / 5
2026-08-03	Unavailable	$1,703,928,709	2 / 5
2026-08-04	Unavailable	$1,674,250,290	2 / 5
2026-08-05	Unavailable	$1,703,928,709	2 / 5
2026-08-06	Unavailable	$1,703,928,709	2 / 5
2026-08-08	Unavailable	$1,630,741,910	2 / 6
2026-08-09	Unavailable	$1,630,741,910	2 / 6
2026-08-10	Unavailable	$1,630,741,910	2 / 6
2026-08-12	Unavailable	$1,630,745,380	2 / 5
2026-08-13	Unavailable	$1,582,891,090	2 / 6
2026-08-14	Unavailable	$1,630,745,380	2 / 5
2026-08-15	Unavailable	$1,630,745,380	2 / 5
2026-08-16	Unavailable	$1,630,745,380	2 / 5
2026-08-17	Unavailable	$1,630,745,380	2 / 5
2026-08-18	Unavailable	$1,630,745,380	2 / 5
2026-08-19	Unavailable	$1,630,745,380	2 / 5
2026-08-20	Unavailable	$1,564,171,143	2 / 6
2026-08-21	Unavailable	$1,564,171,143	2 / 6
2026-08-22	Unavailable	$1,564,171,143	2 / 6
2026-08-23	Unavailable	$1,564,171,143	2 / 6
2026-08-24	Unavailable	$1,564,171,143	2 / 6
2026-08-25	Unavailable	$1,564,171,143	2 / 6
2026-08-26	Unavailable	$1,564,171,143	2 / 6
2026-08-27	Unavailable	$1,564,171,143	2 / 6
2026-08-28	Unavailable	$1,564,171,143	2 / 6
2026-08-29	Unavailable	$1,553,521,143	2 / 6
2026-08-30	Unavailable	$1,553,521,143	2 / 6
2026-08-31	Unavailable	$1,553,521,143	2 / 6
2026-09-01	Unavailable	$1,553,521,143	2 / 6
2026-09-02	Unavailable	$1,553,521,143	2 / 6
2026-09-03	Unavailable	$1,553,521,143	2 / 6
2026-09-04	Unavailable	$1,553,521,143	2 / 6
2026-09-05	Unavailable	$1,553,521,143	2 / 6
2026-09-06	Unavailable	$1,553,521,143	2 / 6
2026-09-07	Unavailable	$1,553,521,143	2 / 6
2026-09-08	Unavailable	$1,553,521,143	2 / 6
2026-09-09	Unavailable	$1,553,521,143	2 / 6
2026-09-10	Unavailable	$1,553,521,143	2 / 6
2026-09-11	Unavailable	$1,553,521,143	2 / 6
2026-09-12	Unavailable	$1,553,521,143	2 / 6
2026-09-13	Unavailable	$1,553,521,143	2 / 6
2026-09-14	Unavailable	$1,553,521,143	2 / 6
2026-09-15	Unavailable	$1,553,521,143	2 / 6
2026-09-16	Unavailable	$1,553,521,143	2 / 6
2026-09-17	Unavailable	$1,553,521,143	2 / 6
2026-09-18	Unavailable	$1,553,521,143	2 / 6
2026-09-19	Unavailable	$1,553,521,143	2 / 6
2026-09-20	Unavailable	$1,553,521,143	2 / 6
2026-09-21	Unavailable	$1,553,521,143	2 / 6
2026-09-22	Unavailable	$1,553,521,143	2 / 6
2026-09-23	Unavailable	$1,553,521,143	2 / 6
2026-09-24	Unavailable	$1,553,521,143	2 / 6
2026-09-25	Unavailable	$1,553,521,143	2 / 6
2026-09-26	Unavailable	$1,553,521,143	2 / 6
2026-09-27	Unavailable	$1,553,521,143	2 / 6
2026-09-28	Unavailable	$1,553,521,143	2 / 6
2026-09-29	Unavailable	$1,553,521,143	2 / 6
2026-09-30	Unavailable	$1,553,521,143	2 / 6
2026-10-01	Unavailable	$1,553,521,143	2 / 6
2026-10-02	Unavailable	$1,553,521,143	2 / 6
2026-10-03	Unavailable	$1,553,521,143	2 / 6
2026-10-04	Unavailable	$1,553,521,143	2 / 6
2026-10-05	Unavailable	$1,553,521,143	2 / 6
2026-10-06	Unavailable	$1,553,521,143	2 / 6
2026-10-07	Unavailable	$1,551,507,760	2 / 6
2026-10-08	Unavailable	$1,551,507,760	2 / 6
2026-10-09	Unavailable	$1,551,507,760	2 / 6
2026-10-10	Unavailable	$1,551,507,760	2 / 6
2026-10-11	Unavailable	$1,551,507,760	2 / 6
2026-10-12	Unavailable	$1,551,507,760	2 / 6
2026-10-13	Unavailable	$1,548,874,426	2 / 5
2026-10-14	Unavailable	$1,548,874,426	2 / 5
2026-10-15	Unavailable	$1,548,874,426	2 / 5
2026-10-16	Unavailable	$1,548,874,426	2 / 5
2026-10-17	Unavailable	$1,548,874,426	2 / 5
2026-10-18	Unavailable	$1,548,874,426	2 / 5
2026-10-19	Unavailable	$1,548,874,426	2 / 5
2026-10-20	Unavailable	$1,548,874,426	2 / 5
2026-10-21	Unavailable	$1,548,874,426	2 / 5
2026-10-22	Unavailable	$1,548,874,426	2 / 5
2026-10-23	Unavailable	$1,548,874,426	2 / 5
2026-10-24	Unavailable	$1,548,874,426	2 / 5

Revenue and EPS estimates track expectations. They are not delivered results or like-for-like proof of a required annual path.

Compare required revenue and earnings

Analyst view

Monthly observations

Buy / Strong BuyHoldSell / Strong Sell

Exact monthly counts

Monthly rating snapshots · fmp. Missing snapshots are not zero.
Date	Buy*	Hold
2026-05-01	2	4
2026-06-01	2	4
2026-07-01	2	4
2026-08-01	2	5
2026-09-01	2	5
2026-10-01	1	5

*Buy includes Strong Buy; Sell includes Strong Sell. Monthly counts describe the analyst mix, not the firms behind each recent action.

Latest: 1 Buy / Strong Buy · 5 Hold · 0 Sell / Strong Sell

0 upgrades0 downgrades1 maintains

Recent actions · Sep 25–Oct 24 · 1 recorded

Price-target changes

30 days

Individual price-target observations are unavailable.

0 raises · 0 cuts · 0 unchanged · 0 without a comparable prior

How this is measured

Sep 25, 2026–Oct 24, 2026. Each firm's latest positive target is paired only with its immediately prior positive target from the same provider, at most 180 days earlier. Unmatched observations have one dot; conflicting observations are not compared.

Outlook in Brief

The evidence, the remaining questions, and what comes next

What's improving

No recovery evidence is reported in the available driver assessments.

Still unresolved / key risks

Maintain financial flexibility with $200 million credit agreementDirect metric needs a verified mapping
EPS reaches at least $2.36 in FY25Published status: Broken
Root's revenue reaches at least $1.5 billion in FY26Revenue: $389.2M
Complete $75 million share repurchase programDirect metric needs a verified mapping

Next proof point

Nov 4, 2026

Look for updated results and guidance against the published targets, plus direct evidence for unresolved drivers.

Review earnings

Bottom line

4 of 4 published conditions remain under pressure or need verification. The next results need to address those conditions.

The dated weekly assessment and its assumptions are available in Read detailed Outlook.

Historical risk context

Observed price history; separate from operating scenarios

Price sensitivity

2.0%Typical daily move · historical

Downside history

-52.4%Maximum drawdown · trailing year

Read detailed Outlook Company context, assumptions & risks

Root Inc/OH outlook in detail

The weekly editorial context below is a separate assessment from the dated monitor evidence above. Recovery observations do not automatically change the published thesis. Unverified outside influences are hypotheses, not measured driver evidence.

Updated Oct 24, 2026

What kind of bet this is

ROOT is a growth-oriented insurance business whose thesis depends on better pricing, underwriting, and wider distribution. Recent results are strong and the thesis is intact, though the business carries high risk and management evidence is mixed.

What's priced into Root Inc/OH

Valuation is described as a durable premium to peers, while the expectations gap is slightly negative, suggesting expectations are close to what the evidence supports. The priced-in assessment is justified, with low fragility, so the evidence does not point to an unusually fragile expectations setup.

What the fundamentals likely do

Near term, strong recent performance includes a second-quarter net combined ratio of 92.1% and an August earnings beat, while the chance of a near-term miss is assessed as low. Over the multi-year view, expansion to 37 states and growing partnership and agent channels support progress, but next-generation pricing models still need to prove themselves; company quality and management scores have recently declined.

What Root Inc/OH hinges on

The thesis depends on pricing models improving underwriting results and on national expansion and diversified distribution continuing on plan. A guidance cut would be a meaningful negative, while continued strength from sector bellwethers could support the sector backdrop; rate cuts are another stated risk.