RenaissanceRe (RNR)

NYSEFinancialsInsurance - ReinsuranceSnapshot 2026-10-23

$352.60-2.76%

Close 2026-10-23 · 1-day change

Investment OutlookAs of Oct 24, 2026

What could strengthen or challenge RenaissanceRe’s outlook?

The long-term thesis, the evidence coming in, and the environment around it. Thesis dated Jul 8, 2026.

Higher potential upsideImproving expectations

Next-FY EPS estimate change · 30 days

+1.4%

+10% or more+5%0%−5%−10% or less

41.12 → 41.70 EPS · FY ending Dec 31, 2027 · 5 analysts

Higher risk of downsideWeakening expectations

One observable signal. This measures changing earnings expectations, not the probability of a gain or loss.

How this is measured

Change in the same fiscal period’s mean EPS estimate from Sep 24, 2026 to Oct 24, 2026: (new ÷ prior − 1). Contributor count changed from 5 to 5; this is not the number of analysts revising. Source: FMP consensus snapshots. The ±10% axis is a display range.

Measure / period	Management expectations	Analyst expectations
Quarter ending 2026-12-30
Revenue	—	1.43B
EPS	—	9.828
Annual ending 2026-12-31
Revenue	—	8.16B
EPS	—	46.952
Annual ending 2027-12-31
Revenue	—	7.87B
EPS	—	41.7

Management figures unavailable.

What the Thesis Depends On

4 published thesis conditions, with dated milestones shown separately.

Key Factor	Why It Matters	Current Status	Break Condition	Latest Evidence
dividend per share stable near $0.41	The company keeps dividends stable near $0.41 per share.	Intact	dividend per share falls below $0.40	Dividend per share: $0.41 per share FY2026-Q2; GAAP. Published target: dividend per share >= $0.40. The stored target says 2026-Q1; this source reports FY2026-Q2. Fiscal/calendar alignment needs review. Source published Jul 23, 20260.41 USD/share · source valueSource reportLast status assessment Oct 24, 2026 Measurement source consolidated · GAAP FY2026-Q2 · Period ending Jun 30, 2026 Source: company_financial_results. Reference: fd71a2cc-9a98-4980-a9e7-b2ee680f672d. Source status: eligible. Compare required operating outcomes Compare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement.
EPS at least $6.57 in FY 2026	A primary condition in RenaissanceRe's published investment case. The stated target is EPS >= $6.57 for FY 2026.	Under Pressure	EPS guidance falls below $6.57 for FY 2026	Diluted EPS: $15.75 per share FY2026-Q2; GAAP. Published target: EPS >= $6.57 for FY 2026. Target period ends 2026-12-31; this observation covers 2026-Q2. Source published Jul 23, 202615.75 USD/share · source valueSource reportLast status assessment Oct 24, 2026 Measurement source consolidated · GAAP FY2026-Q2 · Period ending Jun 30, 2026 Source: stock_quarterly_financials_fmp. Reference: 2026-Q2. Source status: unverified. Compare required operating outcomes Compare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement.
cash from operations at least $688M in Q1 2026	Cash from operations grew strongly from $158M to $688M.	Under Pressure	cash from operations falls below $158M in any quarter after 2026-Q1	Cash from operations: $852.356M FY2026-Q2; GAAP. Published target: >= $688M cash from operations in Q1 2026. The stored target says 2026-Q1; this source reports FY2026-Q2. Fiscal/calendar alignment needs review. Source published Jul 23, 2026852,356,000 USD · source valueSource reportLast status assessment Oct 24, 2026 Measurement source consolidated · GAAP FY2026-Q2 · Period ending Jun 30, 2026 Source: stock_quarterly_financials_fmp. Reference: 2026-Q2. Source status: unverified. Compare required operating outcomes Compare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement.
net income growth to at least $293M in Q1 2026	RenaissanceRe is improving profits with net income rising from $170M to $293M in one year.	Under Pressure	net income falls below $170M in any quarter after 2026-Q1	Net income: $663.078M FY2026-Q2; GAAP. Published target: >= $293M net income in Q1 2026. The stored target says 2026-Q1; this source reports FY2026-Q2. Fiscal/calendar alignment needs review. Source published Jul 23, 2026663,078,000 USD · source valueSource reportLast status assessment Oct 24, 2026 Measurement source consolidated · GAAP FY2026-Q2 · Period ending Jun 30, 2026 Source: company_financial_results. Reference: fd71a2cc-9a98-4980-a9e7-b2ee680f672d. Source status: eligible. Compare required operating outcomes Compare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement.

Stored thesis · Jul 8, 2026. Latest Evidence uses source-matched measurements where available, alongside the last thesis-monitor assessment. Source periods and assessment dates are shown separately. A new measurement does not automatically change the published status or verify an older target.

Incoming Evidence

Compare these dated observations with the operating requirements above

Expectations trend

Same fiscal period

FY2027 · fiscal year ending 2027-12-31 · fmp

FY2027 EPS$41.70

Unavailable → $41.70 · observed estimates

FY2027 revenueUnavailable

Unavailable → Unavailable · observed estimates

Exact estimates & source dates

One fiscal period and provider throughout. At least five contributors are required for each plotted metric; missing coverage stays a gap. Axes show the observed range. Counts measure coverage, not revisions.

FY2027 estimate observations · fmp
Snapshot	EPS	Revenue	EPS / revenue analysts
2026-07-24	Unavailable	Unavailable	3 / 3
2026-07-25	Unavailable	Unavailable	3 / 3
2026-07-26	Unavailable	Unavailable	3 / 3
2026-07-27	Unavailable	Unavailable	3 / 3
2026-07-28	Unavailable	Unavailable	3 / 3
2026-07-29	Unavailable	Unavailable	4 / 4
2026-07-30	$41.06	Unavailable	5 / 3
2026-07-31	$41.06	Unavailable	5 / 3
2026-08-01	$41.06	Unavailable	5 / 3
2026-08-02	$41.09	Unavailable	5 / 3
2026-08-03	Unavailable	Unavailable	4 / 4
2026-08-04	Unavailable	Unavailable	4 / 4
2026-08-05	$41.09	Unavailable	5 / 3
2026-08-06	$41.09	Unavailable	5 / 3
2026-08-08	Unavailable	Unavailable	4 / 4
2026-08-09	$41.09	Unavailable	5 / 3
2026-08-10	$41.09	Unavailable	5 / 3
2026-08-12	$41.09	Unavailable	5 / 3
2026-08-13	$41.09	Unavailable	5 / 3
2026-08-14	$41.09	Unavailable	5 / 3
2026-08-15	$41.09	Unavailable	5 / 3
2026-08-16	$41.09	Unavailable	5 / 3
2026-08-17	$41.09	Unavailable	5 / 3
2026-08-18	$41.09	Unavailable	5 / 3
2026-08-19	$41.09	Unavailable	5 / 3
2026-08-20	$41.12	Unavailable	5 / 3
2026-08-21	$41.12	Unavailable	5 / 3
2026-08-22	$41.12	Unavailable	5 / 3
2026-08-23	$41.12	Unavailable	5 / 3
2026-08-24	$41.12	Unavailable	5 / 3
2026-08-25	$41.12	Unavailable	5 / 3
2026-08-26	$41.12	Unavailable	5 / 3
2026-08-27	$41.12	Unavailable	5 / 3
2026-08-28	$41.12	Unavailable	5 / 3
2026-08-29	$41.12	Unavailable	5 / 3
2026-08-30	$41.12	Unavailable	5 / 3
2026-08-31	$41.12	Unavailable	5 / 3
2026-09-01	$41.12	Unavailable	5 / 3
2026-09-02	$41.12	Unavailable	5 / 3
2026-09-03	$41.12	Unavailable	5 / 3
2026-09-04	$41.12	Unavailable	5 / 3
2026-09-05	$41.12	Unavailable	5 / 3
2026-09-06	$41.12	Unavailable	5 / 3
2026-09-07	$41.12	Unavailable	5 / 3
2026-09-08	$41.12	Unavailable	5 / 3
2026-09-09	$41.12	Unavailable	5 / 3
2026-09-10	$41.12	Unavailable	5 / 3
2026-09-11	$41.12	Unavailable	5 / 3
2026-09-12	$41.12	Unavailable	5 / 3
2026-09-13	$41.12	Unavailable	5 / 3
2026-09-14	$41.12	Unavailable	5 / 3
2026-09-15	$41.12	Unavailable	5 / 3
2026-09-16	$41.12	Unavailable	5 / 3
2026-09-17	$41.12	Unavailable	5 / 3
2026-09-18	$41.12	Unavailable	5 / 3
2026-09-19	$41.12	Unavailable	5 / 3
2026-09-20	$41.12	Unavailable	5 / 3
2026-09-21	$41.12	Unavailable	5 / 3
2026-09-22	$41.12	Unavailable	5 / 3
2026-09-23	$41.12	Unavailable	5 / 3
2026-09-24	$41.12	Unavailable	5 / 3
2026-09-25	$41.12	Unavailable	6 / 4
2026-09-26	$41.12	Unavailable	6 / 4
2026-09-27	$41.12	Unavailable	6 / 4
2026-09-28	$41.12	Unavailable	6 / 4
2026-09-29	$41.12	Unavailable	6 / 4
2026-09-30	$41.12	Unavailable	6 / 4
2026-10-01	$41.16	Unavailable	6 / 4
2026-10-02	$41.23	Unavailable	6 / 4
2026-10-03	$41.18	Unavailable	6 / 4
2026-10-04	$41.18	Unavailable	6 / 4
2026-10-05	$41.18	Unavailable	6 / 4
2026-10-06	$41.21	Unavailable	6 / 4
2026-10-07	$41.42	Unavailable	6 / 4
2026-10-08	$41.43	Unavailable	6 / 4
2026-10-09	$41.47	Unavailable	6 / 4
2026-10-10	$41.47	Unavailable	6 / 4
2026-10-11	$41.48	$7,872,376,741	6 / 5
2026-10-12	$41.48	$7,872,376,741	6 / 5
2026-10-13	$41.66	Unavailable	5 / 4
2026-10-14	$41.66	Unavailable	5 / 3
2026-10-15	$41.66	Unavailable	5 / 3
2026-10-16	$41.66	Unavailable	5 / 3
2026-10-17	$41.66	Unavailable	5 / 3
2026-10-18	$41.66	Unavailable	5 / 3
2026-10-19	$41.66	Unavailable	5 / 3
2026-10-20	$41.66	Unavailable	5 / 3
2026-10-21	$41.66	Unavailable	5 / 3
2026-10-22	$41.66	Unavailable	5 / 3
2026-10-23	$41.66	Unavailable	5 / 3
2026-10-24	$41.70	Unavailable	5 / 3

Revenue and EPS estimates track expectations. They are not delivered results or like-for-like proof of a required annual path.

Compare required revenue and earnings

Analyst view

Monthly observations

Buy / Strong BuyHoldSell / Strong Sell

Exact monthly counts

Monthly rating snapshots · fmp. Missing snapshots are not zero.
Date	Buy*	Hold	Sell*
2026-05-01	3	13	1
2026-06-01	4	13	1
2026-07-01	4	12	1
2026-08-01	4	12	1
2026-09-01	4	13	1
2026-10-01	4	13	1

*Buy includes Strong Buy; Sell includes Strong Sell. Monthly counts describe the analyst mix, not the firms behind each recent action.

Latest: 4 Buy / Strong Buy · 13 Hold · 1 Sell / Strong Sell

0 upgrades0 downgrades3 maintains

Recent actions · Sep 25–Oct 24 · 3 recorded

Price-target changes

30 days

○ Previous · ● Latest · common dollar scale

Wells FargoOct 12

$319.00New observation · no comparable prior

$0$175.45$350.90

0 raises · 0 cuts · 0 unchanged · 1 without a comparable prior

How this is measured

Sep 25, 2026–Oct 24, 2026. Each firm's latest positive target is paired only with its immediately prior positive target from the same provider, at most 180 days earlier. Unmatched observations have one dot; conflicting observations are not compared.

Outlook in Brief

The evidence, the remaining questions, and what comes next

What's improving

No recovery evidence is reported in the available driver assessments.

Still unresolved / key risks

dividend per share stable near $0.41Dividend per share: $0.41 per share
EPS at least $6.57 in FY 2026Published status: Under Pressure
cash from operations at least $688M in Q1 2026Published status: Under Pressure
net income growth to at least $293M in Q1 2026Published status: Under Pressure

Next proof point

Oct 27, 2026

Look for updated results and guidance against the published targets, plus direct evidence for unresolved drivers.

Review earnings

Bottom line

4 of 4 published conditions remain under pressure or need verification. The next results need to address those conditions.

The dated weekly assessment and its assumptions are available in Read detailed Outlook.

Historical risk context

Observed price history; separate from operating scenarios

Price sensitivity

0.7%Typical daily move · historical

Downside history

-11.9%Maximum drawdown · trailing year

Read detailed Outlook Company context, assumptions & risks

RenaissanceRe outlook in detail

The weekly editorial context below is a separate assessment from the dated monitor evidence above. Recovery observations do not automatically change the published thesis. Unverified outside influences are hypotheses, not measured driver evidence.

Updated Oct 24, 2026

What kind of bet this is

RNR is an insurance and reinsurance business with a multi-year view that depends on steady underwriting and investment income, rather than a turnaround thesis. The thesis is intact this month, though execution evidence is mixed and the confidence level is medium.

What's priced into RenaissanceRe

The valuation is described as cheap versus peers, and it has fallen recently. The priced-in assessment is justified, with low fragility, but the expectations-gap estimate is negative and model confidence is low, so the valuation signal is uncertain.

What the fundamentals likely do

In the near term, recent earnings beats and low combined ratios support the view that underwriting is holding up; fee and investment income have also remained meaningful. Management has repeated its priorities, but execution is rated mixed, and the sector backdrop is a headwind; a guidance cut or recent peer weakness would add risk.

What RenaissanceRe hinges on

Over the next few quarters, the thesis hinges on whether disciplined underwriting keeps results steady and diversified income continues to contribute. A guidance cut or Fed rate cuts would be unfavorable, while continued earnings strength and higher guidance from sector peers would support momentum across Financials.