RLI Corp. (RLI)

NYSEFinancialsInsurance - Property & CasualtySnapshot 2026-10-23

$64.83-3.25%

Close 2026-10-23 · 1-day change

Investment OutlookAs of Oct 24, 2026

What could strengthen or challenge RLI Corp.’s outlook?

The long-term thesis, the evidence coming in, and the environment around it. Thesis dated Jul 8, 2026.

Higher potential upsideImproving expectations

Next-FY EPS estimate change · 30 days

+2.1%

+10% or more+5%0%−5%−10% or less

2.75 → 2.80 EPS · FY ending Dec 31, 2027 · 6 analysts

Higher risk of downsideWeakening expectations

One observable signal. This measures changing earnings expectations, not the probability of a gain or loss.

How this is measured

Change in the same fiscal period’s mean EPS estimate from Sep 24, 2026 to Oct 24, 2026: (new ÷ prior − 1). Contributor count changed from 5 to 6; this is not the number of analysts revising. Source: FMP consensus snapshots. The ±10% axis is a display range.

Measure / period	Management expectations	Analyst expectations
Quarter ending 2026-12-30
Revenue	—	480.19M
EPS	—	0.699
Annual ending 2026-12-31
Revenue	—	2.09B
EPS	—	3.221
Annual ending 2027-12-31
Revenue	—	2.16B
EPS	—	2.803

Management figures unavailable.

What the Thesis Depends On

Three published thesis conditions, with dated milestones shown separately.

Key Factor	Why It Matters	Current Status	Break Condition	Latest Evidence
Execute $250 million share repurchase program and maintain dividends	It pays steady dividends and is buying back $250 million in shares.	Intact	Buyback program is not executed or dividends are cut	Direct metric needs a verified mapping The published measure or accounting basis is not supported by an exact source binding. Source date unavailableLast status assessment Oct 24, 2026Compare required operating outcomes Compare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement.
EPS at or above $2.74 for FY26	A primary condition in RLI Corp.'s published investment case. The stated target is >= $2.74.	Improving	EPS falls below $2.74 for FY26	Diluted EPS: $0.88 per share FY2026-Q3; GAAP. Published target: >= $2.74. Target period is not explicitly aligned with this observation. Source published Oct 21, 20260.88 USD/share · source valueSource reportLast status assessment Oct 24, 2026 Measurement source consolidated · GAAP FY2026-Q3 · Period ending Sep 30, 2026 Source: company_financial_results. Reference: 4f947fe8-1968-435e-b08f-238b8f8b2787. Source status: eligible. Compare required operating outcomes Compare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement.
Revenue growth of at least 3% annually	A primary condition in RLI Corp.'s published investment case. The stated target is >=3% YoY.	Intact	YoY revenue growth falls below 3% next year	Revenue growth: -6.34% FY2026-Q3; GAAP. Published target: >=3% YoY. Target period is not explicitly aligned with this observation. Source published Oct 21, 2026-6.342683 percent · calculatedSource reportLast status assessment Oct 24, 2026 Measurement source consolidated · GAAP FY2026-Q3 · Period ending Sep 30, 2026 Source: company_financial_results. Reference: 4f947fe8-1968-435e-b08f-238b8f8b2787. Source status: eligible. Compare required operating outcomes Compare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement.

Stored thesis · Jul 8, 2026. Latest Evidence uses source-matched measurements where available, alongside the last thesis-monitor assessment. Source periods and assessment dates are shown separately. A new measurement does not automatically change the published status or verify an older target.

Incoming Evidence

Compare these dated observations with the operating requirements above

Expectations trend

Same fiscal period

FY2027 · fiscal year ending 2027-12-31 · fmp

FY2027 EPS$2.80

$2.78 → $2.80 · observed estimates

FY2027 revenue: comparable history unavailable.

Exact estimates & source dates

One fiscal period and provider throughout. At least five contributors are required for each plotted metric; missing coverage stays a gap. Axes show the observed range. Counts measure coverage, not revisions.

FY2027 estimate observations · fmp
Snapshot	EPS	Revenue	EPS / revenue analysts
2026-07-24	$2.78	Unavailable	7 / 3
2026-07-25	$2.73	Unavailable	7 / 3
2026-07-26	$2.73	Unavailable	7 / 3
2026-07-27	$2.70	Unavailable	7 / 4
2026-07-28	$2.70	Unavailable	7 / 4
2026-07-29	$2.70	Unavailable	7 / 4
2026-07-30	$2.75	Unavailable	5 / 3
2026-07-31	$2.75	Unavailable	5 / 3
2026-08-01	$2.75	Unavailable	5 / 3
2026-08-02	$2.70	Unavailable	7 / 4
2026-08-03	$2.70	Unavailable	7 / 4
2026-08-04	$2.70	Unavailable	7 / 4
2026-08-05	$2.70	Unavailable	7 / 4
2026-08-06	$2.75	Unavailable	5 / 3
2026-08-08	$2.75	Unavailable	5 / 3
2026-08-09	$2.75	Unavailable	5 / 3
2026-08-10	$2.70	Unavailable	7 / 4
2026-08-12	$2.75	Unavailable	5 / 3
2026-08-13	$2.70	Unavailable	7 / 4
2026-08-14	$2.75	Unavailable	5 / 3
2026-08-15	$2.75	Unavailable	5 / 3
2026-08-16	$2.75	Unavailable	5 / 3
2026-08-17	$2.75	Unavailable	5 / 3
2026-08-18	$2.75	Unavailable	5 / 3
2026-08-19	$2.75	Unavailable	5 / 3
2026-08-20	$2.75	Unavailable	5 / 3
2026-08-21	$2.75	Unavailable	5 / 3
2026-08-22	$2.75	Unavailable	5 / 3
2026-08-23	$2.75	Unavailable	5 / 3
2026-08-24	$2.75	Unavailable	5 / 3
2026-08-25	$2.75	Unavailable	5 / 3
2026-08-26	$2.75	Unavailable	5 / 3
2026-08-27	$2.75	Unavailable	5 / 3
2026-08-28	$2.75	Unavailable	5 / 3
2026-08-29	$2.75	Unavailable	5 / 3
2026-08-30	$2.75	Unavailable	5 / 3
2026-08-31	$2.75	Unavailable	5 / 3
2026-09-01	$2.75	Unavailable	5 / 3
2026-09-02	$2.75	Unavailable	5 / 3
2026-09-03	$2.75	Unavailable	5 / 3
2026-09-04	$2.75	Unavailable	5 / 3
2026-09-05	$2.75	Unavailable	5 / 3
2026-09-06	$2.75	Unavailable	5 / 3
2026-09-07	$2.75	Unavailable	5 / 3
2026-09-08	$2.75	Unavailable	5 / 3
2026-09-09	$2.75	Unavailable	5 / 3
2026-09-10	$2.75	Unavailable	5 / 3
2026-09-11	$2.75	Unavailable	5 / 3
2026-09-12	$2.75	Unavailable	5 / 3
2026-09-13	$2.75	Unavailable	5 / 3
2026-09-14	$2.75	Unavailable	5 / 3
2026-09-15	$2.75	Unavailable	5 / 3
2026-09-16	$2.75	Unavailable	5 / 3
2026-09-17	$2.75	Unavailable	5 / 3
2026-09-18	$2.75	Unavailable	5 / 3
2026-09-19	$2.75	Unavailable	5 / 3
2026-09-20	$2.75	Unavailable	5 / 3
2026-09-21	$2.75	Unavailable	5 / 3
2026-09-22	$2.75	Unavailable	5 / 3
2026-09-23	$2.75	Unavailable	5 / 3
2026-09-24	$2.75	Unavailable	5 / 3
2026-09-25	$2.75	Unavailable	5 / 3
2026-09-26	$2.75	Unavailable	5 / 3
2026-09-27	$2.75	Unavailable	5 / 3
2026-09-28	$2.75	Unavailable	5 / 3
2026-09-29	$2.75	Unavailable	5 / 3
2026-09-30	$2.75	Unavailable	5 / 3
2026-10-01	$2.75	Unavailable	5 / 3
2026-10-02	$2.75	Unavailable	5 / 3
2026-10-03	$2.75	Unavailable	5 / 3
2026-10-04	$2.75	Unavailable	5 / 3
2026-10-05	$2.75	Unavailable	5 / 3
2026-10-06	$2.75	Unavailable	5 / 3
2026-10-07	$2.75	Unavailable	5 / 3
2026-10-08	$2.75	Unavailable	5 / 3
2026-10-09	$2.75	Unavailable	5 / 3
2026-10-10	$2.75	Unavailable	5 / 3
2026-10-11	$2.75	Unavailable	5 / 3
2026-10-12	$2.75	Unavailable	5 / 3
2026-10-13	$2.74	Unavailable	5 / 3
2026-10-14	$2.74	Unavailable	5 / 2
2026-10-15	$2.74	Unavailable	5 / 2
2026-10-16	$2.74	Unavailable	5 / 2
2026-10-17	$2.74	Unavailable	5 / 2
2026-10-18	$2.74	Unavailable	5 / 2
2026-10-19	$2.74	Unavailable	5 / 2
2026-10-20	$2.74	Unavailable	5 / 2
2026-10-21	$2.76	Unavailable	5 / 2
2026-10-22	$2.80	Unavailable	5 / 2
2026-10-23	$2.80	Unavailable	6 / 3
2026-10-24	$2.80	Unavailable	6 / 3

Revenue and EPS estimates track expectations. They are not delivered results or like-for-like proof of a required annual path.

Compare required revenue and earnings

Analyst view

Monthly observations

Buy / Strong BuyHoldSell / Strong Sell

Exact monthly counts

Monthly rating snapshots · fmp. Missing snapshots are not zero.
Date	Buy*	Hold	Sell*
2026-05-01	1	7	0
2026-06-01	1	7	0
2026-07-01	1	7	1
2026-08-01	1	6	2
2026-09-01	1	6	2
2026-10-01	1	5	2

*Buy includes Strong Buy; Sell includes Strong Sell. Monthly counts describe the analyst mix, not the firms behind each recent action.

Latest: 1 Buy / Strong Buy · 5 Hold · 2 Sell / Strong Sell

0 upgrades0 downgrades3 maintains

Recent actions · Sep 25–Oct 24 · 3 recorded

Price-target changes

30 days

○ Previous · ● Latest · common dollar scale

Wells FargoOct 21 · prior Oct 12

$51.00 → $53.00+3.9%

$0$29.15$58.30

1 raises · 0 cuts · 0 unchanged · 0 without a comparable prior

How this is measured

Sep 25, 2026–Oct 24, 2026. Each firm's latest positive target is paired only with its immediately prior positive target from the same provider, at most 180 days earlier. Unmatched observations have one dot; conflicting observations are not compared.

Outlook in Brief

The evidence, the remaining questions, and what comes next

What's improving

No recovery evidence is reported in the available driver assessments.

Still unresolved / key risks

Execute $250 million share repurchase program and maintain dividendsDirect metric needs a verified mapping
EPS at or above $2.74 for FY26Diluted EPS: $0.88 per share
Revenue growth of at least 3% annuallyRevenue growth: -6.34%

Next proof point

Next earnings date unavailable

Look for updated results and guidance against the published targets, plus direct evidence for unresolved drivers.

Review earnings

Bottom line

3 of 3 published conditions remain under pressure or need verification. The next results need to address those conditions.

The dated weekly assessment and its assumptions are available in Read detailed Outlook.

Historical risk context

Observed price history; separate from operating scenarios

Price sensitivity

1.2%Typical daily move · historical

Downside history

-28.0%Maximum drawdown · trailing year

Read detailed Outlook Company context, assumptions & risks

RLI Corp. outlook in detail

The weekly editorial context below is a separate assessment from the dated monitor evidence above. Recovery observations do not automatically change the published thesis. Unverified outside influences are hypotheses, not measured driver evidence.

Updated Oct 24, 2026

What kind of bet this is

RLI is a specialty insurer with a long-term thesis based on profitable underwriting and capital returns. The thesis is intact this month, though its signal has shifted from mildly favorable to mixed.

What's priced into RLI Corp.

RLI trades at a durable premium to peers, and the valuation assessment is neutral with medium confidence. The evidence describes that premium as justified, with low priced-in fragility, but the expectations gap is slightly negative.

What the fundamentals likely do

Recent financial performance is strong: in 2026-Q3, RLI reported an 86.2 combined ratio, which compares claims and expenses with premiums, and $58.8 million of underwriting income. Management’s emphasis on disciplined underwriting is on track, and recent results include earnings beats, but earnings surprises have been trending down and the sector backdrop is a headwind.

What RLI Corp. hinges on

Near term, a guidance cut on the next call would be a meaningful negative; the estimated miss risk is low, but RLI has had a deep miss in its recent history. Over the multi-year view, disciplined underwriting and continued execution matter, while the sector backdrop could improve if bellwether insurers keep beating expectations and guiding higher. Rate cuts from the current 3.88% level are another stated headwind for Financials.