RIOT PLATFORMS, INC. (RIOT)

NASDAQFinancialsFinancial - Capital MarketsSnapshot 2026-10-23

$12.53-2.79%

Close 2026-10-23 · 1-day change

Investment OutlookAs of Oct 24, 2026

What could strengthen or challenge RIOT PLATFORMS, INC.’s outlook?

The long-term thesis, the evidence coming in, and the environment around it. Thesis dated Jul 8, 2026.

Higher potential upsideImproving expectations

Next-FY EPS estimate change · 30 days

Comparable estimates unavailable

+10% or more+5%0%−5%−10% or less

A matching fiscal period and sufficient coverage are required.

Higher risk of downsideWeakening expectations

One observable signal. This measures changing earnings expectations, not the probability of a gain or loss.

How this is measured

The calculation requires same-period, same-provider snapshots, positive EPS, at least five analysts and a baseline within three days of the requested lookback.

Measure / period	Management expectations	Analyst expectations
Quarter ending 2026-12-30
Revenue	—	176.87M
EPS	—	-0.266
Annual ending 2026-12-31
Revenue	—	681.65M
EPS	—	-2.623
Annual ending 2027-12-31
Revenue	—	779.98M
EPS	—	-1.194

Management figures unavailable.

What the Thesis Depends On

4 published thesis conditions, with dated milestones shown separately.

Key Factor	Why It Matters	Current Status	Break Condition	Latest Evidence
Capex remains near or below $214 million in H1 2026	A supporting condition in RIOT PLATFORMS, INC.'s published investment case. The stated target is <=214 USD_MILLIONS.	Intact	Capex exceeds $214 million in H1 2026	Capital expenditures: $60.731M FY2026-Q2; GAAP. Published target: <=214 USD_MILLIONS. Same fiscal period as the stored target. Source published Aug 10, 202660,731,000 USD · source valueSource reportLast status assessment Oct 24, 2026 Measurement source consolidated · GAAP FY2026-Q2 · Period ending Jun 30, 2026 Source: stock_quarterly_financials_fmp. Reference: 2026-Q2. Source status: unverified. Compare required operating outcomes Compare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement.
Net income improves toward break-even by end 2026	A primary condition in RIOT PLATFORMS, INC.'s published investment case. The stated target is >=0 USD.	Broken	Net income remains below -$500 million by end 2026	Net income: $-237.17M FY2026-Q2; GAAP. Published target: >=0 USD. Target period ends 2026-12-31; this observation covers 2026-Q2. Source published Aug 10, 2026-237,170,000 USD · source valueSource reportLast status assessment Oct 24, 2026 Measurement source consolidated · GAAP FY2026-Q2 · Period ending Jun 30, 2026 Source: company_financial_results. Reference: 8e1585bb-18ba-469e-b928-cb43ab7d984f. Source status: eligible. Compare required operating outcomes Compare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement.
Operating cash flow improves from -$182.7 million in 2026-Q1	A supporting condition in RIOT PLATFORMS, INC.'s published investment case. The stated target is >= -100 USD_MILLIONS.	Improving	Operating cash flow remains below -$182.7 million by end 2026	Cash from operations: $-90.136M FY2026-Q2; GAAP. Published target: >= -100 USD_MILLIONS. Target period ends 2026-12-31; this observation covers 2026-Q2. Source published Aug 10, 2026-90,136,000 USD · source valueSource reportLast status assessment Oct 24, 2026 Measurement source consolidated · GAAP FY2026-Q2 · Period ending Jun 30, 2026 Source: stock_quarterly_financials_fmp. Reference: 2026-Q2. Source status: unverified. Compare required operating outcomes Compare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement.
Revenue grows to at least $311 million by FY26	A primary condition in RIOT PLATFORMS, INC.'s published investment case. The stated target is >=311 USD_MILLIONS.	Broken	Revenue falls below $180 million in FY26	Revenue: $174.235M FY2026-Q2; GAAP. Published target: >=311 USD_MILLIONS. Target period ends 2026-12-31; this observation covers 2026-Q2. Source published Aug 10, 2026174,235,000 USD · source valueSource reportLast status assessment Oct 24, 2026 Measurement source consolidated · GAAP FY2026-Q2 · Period ending Jun 30, 2026 Source: company_financial_results. Reference: 8e1585bb-18ba-469e-b928-cb43ab7d984f. Source status: eligible. Compare required operating outcomes Compare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement.

Stored thesis · Jul 8, 2026. Latest Evidence uses source-matched measurements where available, alongside the last thesis-monitor assessment. Source periods and assessment dates are shown separately. A new measurement does not automatically change the published status or verify an older target.

Incoming Evidence

Compare these dated observations with the operating requirements above

Expectations trend

Same fiscal period

FY2027 · fiscal year ending 2027-12-31 · fmp

FY2027 EPS$-1.19

Unavailable → $-1.19 · observed estimates

FY2027 revenue$0.78B

$0.79B → $0.78B · observed estimates

Exact estimates & source dates

One fiscal period and provider throughout. At least five contributors are required for each plotted metric; missing coverage stays a gap. Axes show the observed range. Counts measure coverage, not revisions.

FY2027 estimate observations · fmp
Snapshot	EPS	Revenue	EPS / revenue analysts
2026-07-24	Unavailable	$785,329,620	3 / 18
2026-07-25	Unavailable	$780,190,680	4 / 19
2026-07-26	Unavailable	$780,190,680	4 / 19
2026-07-27	Unavailable	$780,190,680	4 / 19
2026-07-28	Unavailable	$780,190,680	4 / 19
2026-07-29	Unavailable	$780,190,680	3 / 19
2026-07-30	$-0.83	$787,440,542	7 / 14
2026-07-31	Unavailable	$776,950,940	3 / 18
2026-08-01	$-0.83	$787,440,542	7 / 14
2026-08-02	Unavailable	$776,950,940	3 / 18
2026-08-03	Unavailable	$776,950,940	3 / 18
2026-08-04	Unavailable	$776,950,940	3 / 18
2026-08-05	Unavailable	$776,950,940	3 / 18
2026-08-06	Unavailable	$776,950,940	3 / 18
2026-08-08	Unavailable	$776,950,940	3 / 18
2026-08-09	Unavailable	$776,950,940	3 / 18
2026-08-10	$-0.83	$790,718,319	8 / 14
2026-08-12	$-0.83	$790,718,319	8 / 14
2026-08-13	$-0.83	$790,718,319	8 / 14
2026-08-14	$-0.83	$790,718,319	8 / 14
2026-08-15	$-0.83	$790,718,319	8 / 14
2026-08-16	$-0.83	$790,718,319	8 / 14
2026-08-17	$-0.83	$790,718,319	8 / 14
2026-08-18	$-0.83	$790,718,319	8 / 14
2026-08-19	$-0.83	$790,718,319	8 / 14
2026-08-20	$-1.14	$800,473,971	8 / 14
2026-08-21	$-1.14	$800,473,971	8 / 14
2026-08-22	$-1.14	$800,473,971	8 / 14
2026-08-23	$-1.14	$800,473,971	8 / 14
2026-08-24	$-1.14	$800,473,971	8 / 14
2026-08-25	$-1.14	$800,473,971	8 / 14
2026-08-26	$-1.14	$800,473,971	8 / 14
2026-08-27	$-1.14	$800,473,971	8 / 14
2026-08-28	$-1.14	$800,473,971	8 / 14
2026-08-29	$-1.14	$800,473,971	8 / 14
2026-08-30	$-1.14	$800,473,971	8 / 14
2026-08-31	$-1.14	$800,473,971	8 / 14
2026-09-01	$-1.14	$800,473,971	8 / 14
2026-09-02	$-1.14	$791,196,193	8 / 14
2026-09-03	$-1.14	$791,196,193	8 / 14
2026-09-04	$-1.14	$791,196,193	8 / 14
2026-09-05	$-1.14	$791,196,193	8 / 14
2026-09-06	$-1.14	$791,196,193	8 / 14
2026-09-07	$-1.14	$791,196,193	8 / 14
2026-09-08	$-1.14	$791,196,193	8 / 14
2026-09-09	$-1.14	$791,196,193	8 / 14
2026-09-10	$-1.14	$791,196,193	8 / 14
2026-09-11	$-1.14	$791,196,193	8 / 14
2026-09-12	$-1.14	$791,196,193	8 / 14
2026-09-13	$-1.14	$791,196,193	8 / 14
2026-09-14	$-1.14	$791,196,193	8 / 14
2026-09-15	$-1.14	$791,196,193	8 / 14
2026-09-16	$-1.14	$791,196,193	8 / 14
2026-09-17	$-1.14	$791,196,193	8 / 14
2026-09-18	$-1.14	$791,196,193	8 / 14
2026-09-19	$-1.14	$791,196,193	8 / 14
2026-09-20	$-1.14	$791,196,193	8 / 14
2026-09-21	$-1.14	$791,196,193	8 / 14
2026-09-22	$-1.14	$791,196,193	8 / 14
2026-09-23	$-1.14	$791,196,193	8 / 14
2026-09-24	$-1.14	$791,196,193	8 / 14
2026-09-25	$-1.14	$791,196,193	8 / 14
2026-09-26	$-1.14	$791,196,193	8 / 14
2026-09-27	$-1.18	$786,185,867	8 / 14
2026-09-28	$-1.18	$786,185,867	8 / 15
2026-09-29	$-1.18	$786,185,867	8 / 15
2026-09-30	$-1.18	$786,185,867	8 / 15
2026-10-01	$-1.25	$779,416,574	8 / 15
2026-10-02	$-1.25	$779,416,469	8 / 15
2026-10-03	$-1.25	$779,416,469	9 / 15
2026-10-04	$-1.25	$779,416,469	9 / 15
2026-10-05	$-1.25	$779,416,469	9 / 15
2026-10-06	$-1.25	$779,416,469	9 / 15
2026-10-07	$-1.25	$779,416,469	9 / 15
2026-10-08	$-1.25	$779,416,469	9 / 15
2026-10-09	$-1.25	$779,416,469	9 / 15
2026-10-10	$-1.25	$779,416,469	9 / 15
2026-10-11	$-1.25	$779,496,450	9 / 15
2026-10-12	$-1.25	$779,496,450	9 / 15
2026-10-13	$-1.25	$779,496,450	9 / 15
2026-10-14	$-1.23	$785,539,733	9 / 15
2026-10-15	$-1.23	$785,539,733	9 / 15
2026-10-16	$-1.23	$785,539,733	9 / 15
2026-10-17	$-1.23	$785,539,733	9 / 15
2026-10-18	$-1.23	$785,169,733	9 / 15
2026-10-19	$-1.23	$785,169,733	9 / 15
2026-10-20	$-1.23	$785,169,733	9 / 15
2026-10-21	$-1.21	$788,626,533	9 / 15
2026-10-22	$-1.21	$788,626,533	9 / 15
2026-10-23	$-1.19	$779,981,453	9 / 15
2026-10-24	$-1.19	$779,981,453	9 / 15

Revenue and EPS estimates track expectations. They are not delivered results or like-for-like proof of a required annual path.

Compare required revenue and earnings

Analyst view

Monthly observations

Buy / Strong BuyHoldSell / Strong Sell

Exact monthly counts

Monthly rating snapshots · fmp. Missing snapshots are not zero.
Date	Buy*	Hold
2026-05-01	18	2
2026-06-01	19	2
2026-07-01	20	1
2026-08-01	20	1
2026-09-01	21	1
2026-10-01	21	1

*Buy includes Strong Buy; Sell includes Strong Sell. Monthly counts describe the analyst mix, not the firms behind each recent action.

Latest: 21 Buy / Strong Buy · 1 Hold · 0 Sell / Strong Sell

0 upgrades0 downgrades4 maintains

Recent actions · Sep 25–Oct 24 · 4 recorded

Price-target changes

30 days

Individual price-target observations are unavailable.

0 raises · 0 cuts · 0 unchanged · 0 without a comparable prior

How this is measured

Sep 25, 2026–Oct 24, 2026. Each firm's latest positive target is paired only with its immediately prior positive target from the same provider, at most 180 days earlier. Unmatched observations have one dot; conflicting observations are not compared.

Outlook in Brief

The evidence, the remaining questions, and what comes next

What's improving

No recovery evidence is reported in the available driver assessments.

Still unresolved / key risks

Net income improves toward break-even by end 2026Published status: Broken
Operating cash flow improves from -$182.7 million in 2026-Q1Cash from operations: $-90.136M
Revenue grows to at least $311 million by FY26Published status: Broken

Next proof point

Nov 4, 2026

Look for updated results and guidance against the published targets, plus direct evidence for unresolved drivers.

Review earnings

Bottom line

3 of 4 published conditions remain under pressure or need verification. The next results need to address those conditions.

The dated weekly assessment and its assumptions are available in Read detailed Outlook.

Historical risk context

Observed price history; separate from operating scenarios

Price sensitivity

3.0%Typical daily move · historical

Downside history

-56.3%Maximum drawdown · trailing year

Read detailed Outlook Company context, assumptions & risks

RIOT PLATFORMS, INC. outlook in detail

The weekly editorial context below is a separate assessment from the dated monitor evidence above. Recovery observations do not automatically change the published thesis. Unverified outside influences are hypotheses, not measured driver evidence.

Updated Oct 24, 2026

What kind of bet this is

This is a speculative, high-risk business with both Bitcoin mining exposure and an expanding data-center segment. Its long-term thesis is in a watch state: execution on data-center commitments is encouraging, but recent financial performance is weak and management execution is described as volatile.

What's priced into RIOT PLATFORMS, INC.

RIOT trades at a 3.11 premium versus peers, while the model shows a negative expectations gap of 0.57 and has low confidence. The valuation is tagged as justified, with optionality as the main source of divergence, but the evidence does not spell out exactly what growth the market assumes.

What the fundamentals likely do

Near term, consecutive earnings misses and a 51% estimated miss probability make the next report a key risk. Revenue rose year over year and the company added a large data-center lease, but data-center revenue declined from the prior quarter and mining costs increased as Bitcoin production grew. The evidence therefore points to mixed execution, not a clear improvement in earnings quality.

What RIOT PLATFORMS, INC. hinges on

Over the multi-year view, the thesis hinges on RIOT turning data-center development and leasing commitments into sustained revenue growth while controlling mining costs. Near term, a guidance cut would add pressure, while continued strong results from sector bellwethers are listed as a favorable signal; the evidence gives limited detail on how those sector factors connect to RIOT’s mining and data-center businesses.