RH (RH)

NYSEConsumer DiscretionarySpecialty RetailSnapshot 2026-10-23

$137.43-1.94%

Close 2026-10-23 · 1-day change

Investment OutlookAs of Oct 24, 2026

What could strengthen or challenge RH’s outlook?

The long-term thesis, the evidence coming in, and the environment around it. Thesis dated Jul 8, 2026.

Higher potential upsideImproving expectations

Next-FY EPS estimate change · 30 days

-3.1%

+10% or more+5%0%−5%−10% or less

8.94 → 8.66 EPS · FY ending Jan 31, 2028 · 12 analysts

Higher risk of downsideWeakening expectations

One observable signal. This measures changing earnings expectations, not the probability of a gain or loss.

How this is measured

Change in the same fiscal period’s mean EPS estimate from Sep 24, 2026 to Oct 24, 2026: (new ÷ prior − 1). Contributor count changed from 11 to 12; this is not the number of analysts revising. Source: FMP consensus snapshots. The ±10% axis is a display range.

Measure / period	Management expectations	Analyst expectations
Quarter ending 2026-11-01
Revenue	—	932.49M
EPS	—	0.69
Quarter ending 2027-01-31
Revenue	—	980.87M
EPS	—	3.705
Annual ending 2027-01-31
Revenue	—	3.63B
EPS	—	5.029
Annual ending 2028-01-31
Revenue	—	3.97B
EPS	—	8.664

Management figures unavailable.

What the Thesis Depends On

4 published thesis conditions, with dated milestones shown separately.

Key Factor	Why It Matters	Current Status	Break Condition	Latest Evidence
Free cash flow of $300M to $400M in fiscal 2026	Free cash flow is expected to improve to $300-$400 million in fiscal 2026.	Intact	Free cash flow falls below $300 million in fiscal 2026	Free cash flow: $99.578M FY2026-Q2; GAAP. Published target: 300 to 400 USD_MILLIONS. Target period ends 2026-12-31; this observation covers 2026-Q2. Source published Sep 10, 202699,578,000 USD · calculatedSource reportLast status assessment Oct 24, 2026 Measurement source consolidated · GAAP FY2026-Q2 · Period ending Aug 1, 2026 Source: stock_quarterly_financials_fmp. Reference: 2026-Q2. Source status: unverified. Compare required operating outcomes Compare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement.
Improvement in earnings and estimate revisions	A supporting condition in RH's published investment case. The stated target is Stable or upward EPS revisions over next 2 quarters.	Broken	EPS estimates decline further over next 2 quarters	Direct metric needs a verified mapping The published measure or accounting basis is not supported by an exact source binding. Source date unavailableLast status assessment Oct 24, 2026Compare required operating outcomes Compare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement.
Adjusted operating margin between 11.5% and 13.0% in Q2 2026	A primary condition in RH's published investment case. The stated target is 11.5% to 13.0%.	Intact	Operating margin falls below 11.5% in Q2 2026	Direct metric needs a verified mapping The published measure or accounting basis is not supported by an exact source binding. Source date unavailableLast status assessment Oct 24, 2026Compare required operating outcomes Compare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement.
Revenue reaches at least $3.0 billion in fiscal 2026	A primary condition in RH's published investment case. The stated target is >=3000 USD_MILLIONS.	Intact	Revenue falls below $3.0 billion in fiscal 2026	Revenue: $922.15M FY2026-Q2; GAAP. Published target: >=3000 USD_MILLIONS. Target period ends 2026-12-31; this observation covers 2026-Q2. Source published Sep 10, 2026922,150,000 USD · source valueSource reportLast status assessment Oct 24, 2026 Measurement source consolidated · GAAP FY2026-Q2 · Period ending Aug 1, 2026 Source: company_financial_results. Reference: 9480e4ea-3330-438f-b43f-7f05f00d7526. Source status: eligible. Compare required operating outcomes Compare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement.

Stored thesis · Jul 8, 2026. Latest Evidence uses source-matched measurements where available, alongside the last thesis-monitor assessment. Source periods and assessment dates are shown separately. A new measurement does not automatically change the published status or verify an older target.

Incoming Evidence

Compare these dated observations with the operating requirements above

Expectations trend

Same fiscal period

FY2028 · fiscal year ending 2028-01-31 · fmp

FY2028 EPS$8.66

$9.27 → $8.66 · observed estimates

FY2028 revenue$3.97B

$3.95B → $3.97B · observed estimates

Exact estimates & source dates

One fiscal period and provider throughout. At least five contributors are required for each plotted metric; missing coverage stays a gap. Axes show the observed range. Counts measure coverage, not revisions.

FY2028 estimate observations · fmp
Snapshot	EPS	Revenue	EPS / revenue analysts
2026-07-24	$9.27	$3,951,227,560	19 / 19
2026-07-25	$9.27	$3,951,227,560	19 / 19
2026-07-26	$9.27	$3,951,227,560	19 / 19
2026-07-27	$9.44	$3,939,473,150	10 / 15
2026-07-28	$9.44	$3,939,473,150	10 / 15
2026-07-29	$9.44	$3,939,473,150	10 / 15
2026-07-30	$9.44	$3,939,473,150	10 / 15
2026-07-31	$9.44	$3,939,473,150	10 / 15
2026-08-01	$9.44	$3,939,473,150	10 / 15
2026-08-02	$9.44	$3,939,473,150	10 / 15
2026-08-03	$9.44	$3,939,473,150	10 / 15
2026-08-04	$9.44	$3,939,473,150	10 / 15
2026-08-05	$9.44	$3,939,473,150	10 / 15
2026-08-06	$9.44	$3,939,473,150	10 / 15
2026-08-08	$9.34	$3,937,013,349	10 / 14
2026-08-09	$9.34	$3,937,013,349	10 / 14
2026-08-10	$9.34	$3,937,013,349	10 / 14
2026-08-12	$9.34	$3,937,013,349	10 / 14
2026-08-13	$9.34	$3,937,013,349	10 / 14
2026-08-14	$9.34	$3,937,013,349	10 / 14
2026-08-15	$9.34	$3,937,013,349	10 / 14
2026-08-16	$9.34	$3,937,013,349	10 / 14
2026-08-17	$9.34	$3,937,013,349	10 / 14
2026-08-18	$9.34	$3,937,013,349	10 / 14
2026-08-19	$9.34	$3,937,013,349	10 / 14
2026-08-20	$9.34	$3,939,194,917	11 / 15
2026-08-21	$9.34	$3,939,194,917	11 / 15
2026-08-22	$9.34	$3,939,194,917	11 / 15
2026-08-23	$9.34	$3,939,194,917	11 / 15
2026-08-24	$9.34	$3,939,194,917	11 / 15
2026-08-25	$9.34	$3,939,194,917	11 / 15
2026-08-26	$9.34	$3,939,194,917	11 / 15
2026-08-27	$9.34	$3,939,194,917	11 / 15
2026-08-28	$9.34	$3,939,194,917	11 / 15
2026-08-29	$9.34	$3,939,194,917	11 / 15
2026-08-30	$9.34	$3,939,194,917	11 / 15
2026-08-31	$9.34	$3,939,194,917	11 / 15
2026-09-01	$9.34	$3,939,194,917	11 / 15
2026-09-02	$9.34	$3,939,194,917	11 / 15
2026-09-03	$9.34	$3,939,194,917	11 / 15
2026-09-04	$9.34	$3,939,194,917	11 / 15
2026-09-05	$9.34	$3,939,194,917	11 / 15
2026-09-06	$9.34	$3,939,194,917	11 / 15
2026-09-07	$9.34	$3,939,194,917	11 / 15
2026-09-08	$9.34	$3,939,194,917	11 / 15
2026-09-09	$9.34	$3,938,900,799	11 / 15
2026-09-10	$9.34	$3,938,900,799	11 / 15
2026-09-11	$9.21	$3,945,345,326	11 / 15
2026-09-12	$9.03	$3,976,230,583	11 / 15
2026-09-13	$9.03	$3,976,230,583	11 / 15
2026-09-14	$9.03	$3,976,230,583	11 / 15
2026-09-15	$9.03	$3,976,230,583	11 / 15
2026-09-16	$9.02	$3,974,489,407	11 / 15
2026-09-17	$9.02	$3,974,489,407	11 / 15
2026-09-18	$9.02	$3,974,489,407	11 / 15
2026-09-19	$9.02	$3,974,489,407	11 / 15
2026-09-20	$9.02	$3,974,489,407	11 / 15
2026-09-21	$8.94	$3,982,019,995	11 / 15
2026-09-22	$8.94	$3,982,019,995	11 / 15
2026-09-23	$8.94	$3,982,019,995	11 / 15
2026-09-24	$8.94	$3,982,019,995	11 / 15
2026-09-25	$8.94	$3,982,019,995	11 / 15
2026-09-26	$8.94	$3,982,019,995	11 / 15
2026-09-27	$8.94	$3,982,019,995	11 / 15
2026-09-28	$8.74	$3,974,783,525	11 / 15
2026-09-29	$8.74	$3,974,783,525	11 / 15
2026-09-30	$8.74	$3,974,783,525	11 / 15
2026-10-01	$8.74	$3,974,783,525	11 / 14
2026-10-02	$8.74	$3,974,783,525	11 / 14
2026-10-03	$8.74	$3,974,783,525	11 / 15
2026-10-04	$8.74	$3,974,801,172	11 / 15
2026-10-05	$8.74	$3,974,801,172	11 / 15
2026-10-06	$8.74	$3,974,801,172	11 / 15
2026-10-07	$8.74	$3,974,772,822	11 / 15
2026-10-08	$8.74	$3,974,772,822	11 / 15
2026-10-09	$8.74	$3,974,772,822	11 / 15
2026-10-10	$8.74	$3,974,772,822	11 / 15
2026-10-11	$8.71	$3,970,581,387	12 / 15
2026-10-12	$8.71	$3,970,581,387	12 / 15
2026-10-13	$8.71	$3,970,581,387	12 / 15
2026-10-14	$8.71	$3,970,581,387	12 / 15
2026-10-15	$8.71	$3,970,581,387	12 / 15
2026-10-16	$8.71	$3,970,581,387	12 / 15
2026-10-17	$8.71	$3,970,581,387	12 / 15
2026-10-18	$8.71	$3,970,581,387	12 / 15
2026-10-19	$8.71	$3,970,581,387	12 / 15
2026-10-20	$8.68	$3,970,581,387	12 / 15
2026-10-21	$8.66	$3,969,570,276	12 / 15
2026-10-22	$8.66	$3,969,570,276	12 / 15
2026-10-23	$8.66	$3,969,570,276	12 / 15
2026-10-24	$8.66	$3,969,570,276	12 / 15

Revenue and EPS estimates track expectations. They are not delivered results or like-for-like proof of a required annual path.

Compare required revenue and earnings

Analyst view

Monthly observations

Buy / Strong BuyHoldSell / Strong Sell

Exact monthly counts

Monthly rating snapshots · fmp. Missing snapshots are not zero.
Date	Buy*	Hold	Sell*
2026-05-01	7	10	3
2026-06-01	8	10	3
2026-07-01	7	11	3
2026-08-01	7	11	2
2026-09-01	8	11	2
2026-10-01	8	11	2

*Buy includes Strong Buy; Sell includes Strong Sell. Monthly counts describe the analyst mix, not the firms behind each recent action.

Latest: 8 Buy / Strong Buy · 11 Hold · 2 Sell / Strong Sell

0 upgrades0 downgrades2 maintains

Recent actions · Sep 25–Oct 24 · 2 recorded

Price-target changes

30 days

○ Previous · ● Latest · common dollar scale

Goldman SachsOct 20 · prior Jul 8

$155.00 → $140.00-9.7%

Stifel NicolausSep 28 · prior Jun 12

$130.00 → $120.00-7.7%

$0$85.25$170.50

0 raises · 2 cuts · 0 unchanged · 0 without a comparable prior

How this is measured

Sep 25, 2026–Oct 24, 2026. Each firm's latest positive target is paired only with its immediately prior positive target from the same provider, at most 180 days earlier. Unmatched observations have one dot; conflicting observations are not compared.

Outlook in Brief

The evidence, the remaining questions, and what comes next

What's improving

No recovery evidence is reported in the available driver assessments.

Still unresolved / key risks

Free cash flow of $300M to $400M in fiscal 2026Free cash flow: $99.578M
Improvement in earnings and estimate revisionsPublished status: Broken
Adjusted operating margin between 11.5% and 13.0% in Q2 2026Direct metric needs a verified mapping
Revenue reaches at least $3.0 billion in fiscal 2026Revenue: $922.15M

Next proof point

Dec 10, 2026

Look for updated results and guidance against the published targets, plus direct evidence for unresolved drivers.

Review earnings

Bottom line

4 of 4 published conditions remain under pressure or need verification. The next results need to address those conditions.

The dated weekly assessment and its assumptions are available in Read detailed Outlook.

Historical risk context

Observed price history; separate from operating scenarios

Price sensitivity

2.2%Typical daily move · historical

Downside history

-52.3%Maximum drawdown · trailing year

Read detailed Outlook Company context, assumptions & risks

RH outlook in detail

The weekly editorial context below is a separate assessment from the dated monitor evidence above. Recovery observations do not automatically change the published thesis. Unverified outside influences are hypotheses, not measured driver evidence.

Updated Oct 24, 2026

What kind of bet this is

RH is an execution-sensitive business recovery, with the thesis resting on renewed revenue growth and margin improvement. The current setup is mildly favorable, though recent financial performance remains below its industry cohort and the overall risk level is elevated.

What's priced into RH

The valuation model suggests RH trades at a sizable premium to peers, while its expectations gap is negative, meaning expectations appear demanding relative to the model. The priced-in signal is tagged as justified, with low fragility, but confidence in that assessment is medium.

What the fundamentals likely do

Near term, recent earnings results are mixed: RH reported two beats after a miss, while earnings surprises have been erratic and trending down. Across the multi-year view, revenue and margin priorities are on track: revenue rose between the first and second quarters of 2026, and management raised its fiscal-year revenue growth outlook; free cash flow progress is mixed.

What RH hinges on

A guidance cut on the next call would be a meaningful negative for the thesis. Continued earnings strength and higher guidance from sector bellwethers could support the consumer discretionary backdrop, while misses or lower guidance from those companies could weaken it.