Rigetti Computing, Inc. (RGTI)

NASDAQInformation TechnologyComputer HardwareSnapshot 2026-10-23

$11.52+0.35%

Close 2026-10-23 · 1-day change

Investment OutlookAs of Oct 24, 2026

What could strengthen or challenge Rigetti Computing, Inc.’s outlook?

The long-term thesis, the evidence coming in, and the environment around it. Thesis dated Jul 8, 2026.

Higher potential upsideImproving expectations

Next-FY EPS estimate change · 30 days

Comparable estimates unavailable

+10% or more+5%0%−5%−10% or less

A matching fiscal period and sufficient coverage are required.

Higher risk of downsideWeakening expectations

One observable signal. This measures changing earnings expectations, not the probability of a gain or loss.

How this is measured

The calculation requires same-period, same-provider snapshots, positive EPS, at least five analysts and a baseline within three days of the requested lookback.

Measure / period	Management expectations	Analyst expectations
Quarter ending 2026-12-30
Revenue	—	10.01M
EPS	—	-0.036
Annual ending 2026-12-31
Revenue	—	23.25M
EPS	—	-0.188
Annual ending 2027-12-31
Revenue	—	51.24M
EPS	—	-0.195

Management figures unavailable.

What the Thesis Depends On

Three published thesis conditions, with dated milestones shown separately.

Key Factor	Why It Matters	Current Status	Break Condition	Latest Evidence
Advance superconducting quantum computing R&D with government support	Rigetti is advancing quantum computing R&D with $100 million government funding.	Improving	R&D progress stalls or government funding is withdrawn	Qualitative: $100M CHIPS award secured Rigetti signed a $100M CHIPS Act agreement with the U.S. Department of Commerce to advance superconducting quantum computing R&D. Context reviewed through Oct 23, 2026Last status assessment Oct 24, 2026Compare required operating outcomes Compare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement.
Increase revenue through Novera system sales	Revenue from Novera system sales grew from $1.47M to $4.4M in one year.	Intact	Novera revenue growth falls below $1.5M annually	Revenue: $5.138M FY2026-Q2; GAAP. Published target: Revenue from Novera systems >= $4.4M in 2026-Q1 and growing thereafter. The stored target says 2026-Q1; this source reports FY2026-Q2. Fiscal/calendar alignment needs review. Source published Aug 6, 20265,138,000 USD · source valueSource reportLast status assessment Oct 24, 2026 Measurement source consolidated · GAAP FY2026-Q2 · Period ending Jun 30, 2026 Source: company_financial_results. Reference: 9cd6fb09-dcdd-47bb-8c6f-fe84dfd2eb6d. Source status: eligible. Compare required operating outcomes Compare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement. Management context Stated in 2 quarters (2026-Q1, 2026-Q2). Revenue increased from $4.4M in 2026-Q1 to $5.1M in 2026-Q2, reflecting growing demand and fulfillment of on-premises Novera system orders. Management consistently highlights this revenue growth as a priority, and the financials show delivering progress. Delivery assessment Oct 24, 2026
Reduce operating losses to improve financial stability	A supporting condition in Rigetti Computing, Inc.'s published investment case. The stated target is Operating loss improves or stays above -$25.95M next 4 quarters.	Broken	Operating loss worsens beyond -$30M in any quarter	Operating income: $-28.062M FY2026-Q2; GAAP. Published target: Operating loss improves or stays above -$25.95M next 4 quarters. The stored target says 2026-Q4; this source reports FY2026-Q2. Fiscal/calendar alignment needs review. Source published Aug 6, 2026-28,062,000 USD · source valueSource reportLast status assessment Oct 24, 2026 Measurement source consolidated · GAAP FY2026-Q2 · Period ending Jun 30, 2026 Source: company_financial_results. Reference: 9cd6fb09-dcdd-47bb-8c6f-fe84dfd2eb6d. Source status: eligible. Compare required operating outcomes Compare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement.

Stored thesis · Jul 8, 2026. Latest Evidence uses source-matched measurements where available, alongside the last thesis-monitor assessment. Source periods and assessment dates are shown separately. A new measurement does not automatically change the published status or verify an older target.

Incoming Evidence

Compare these dated observations with the operating requirements above

Expectations trend

Same fiscal period

FY2027 · fiscal year ending 2027-12-31 · fmp

FY2027 EPS$-0.19

$-0.20 → $-0.19 · observed estimates

FY2027 revenue$0.05B

$0.05B → $0.05B · observed estimates

Exact estimates & source dates

One fiscal period and provider throughout. At least five contributors are required for each plotted metric; missing coverage stays a gap. Axes show the observed range. Counts measure coverage, not revisions.

FY2027 estimate observations · fmp
Snapshot	EPS	Revenue	EPS / revenue analysts
2026-07-24	$-0.20	$52,493,136	6 / 8
2026-07-25	$-0.20	$52,493,136	6 / 8
2026-07-26	$-0.20	$52,493,136	6 / 8
2026-07-27	$-0.20	$52,493,136	6 / 8
2026-07-28	$-0.20	$44,503,450	9 / 11
2026-07-29	$-0.20	$45,178,170	9 / 12
2026-07-30	$-0.19	$52,502,042	7 / 8
2026-07-31	$-0.19	$52,503,350	7 / 9
2026-08-01	$-0.19	$52,503,350	7 / 9
2026-08-02	$-0.20	$45,178,170	9 / 12
2026-08-03	$-0.20	$45,178,170	9 / 12
2026-08-04	$-0.19	$52,503,350	7 / 9
2026-08-05	$-0.19	$52,503,350	7 / 9
2026-08-06	$-0.19	$52,503,350	7 / 9
2026-08-08	$-0.19	$52,504,483	7 / 9
2026-08-09	$-0.20	$43,885,270	9 / 11
2026-08-10	$-0.19	$52,504,483	7 / 9
2026-08-12	$-0.19	$52,504,483	7 / 9
2026-08-13	$-0.19	$52,504,483	7 / 9
2026-08-14	$-0.19	$52,504,483	7 / 9
2026-08-15	$-0.19	$52,504,483	7 / 9
2026-08-16	$-0.19	$52,504,483	7 / 9
2026-08-17	$-0.19	$52,504,483	7 / 9
2026-08-18	$-0.19	$52,504,483	7 / 9
2026-08-19	$-0.19	$52,504,483	7 / 9
2026-08-20	$-0.20	$52,155,000	7 / 9
2026-08-21	$-0.20	$52,155,000	7 / 9
2026-08-22	$-0.20	$52,155,000	7 / 9
2026-08-23	$-0.20	$52,155,000	7 / 9
2026-08-24	$-0.20	$52,155,000	7 / 9
2026-08-25	$-0.20	$52,155,000	7 / 9
2026-08-26	$-0.20	$52,155,000	7 / 9
2026-08-27	$-0.20	$52,155,000	7 / 9
2026-08-28	$-0.20	$52,155,000	7 / 9
2026-08-29	$-0.20	$52,155,000	7 / 9
2026-08-30	$-0.20	$51,246,667	7 / 9
2026-08-31	$-0.20	$51,246,667	7 / 9
2026-09-01	$-0.20	$51,246,667	7 / 9
2026-09-02	$-0.20	$51,246,667	7 / 9
2026-09-03	$-0.20	$51,246,667	7 / 9
2026-09-04	$-0.20	$51,246,667	7 / 9
2026-09-05	$-0.20	$51,246,667	7 / 9
2026-09-06	$-0.20	$51,246,667	7 / 9
2026-09-07	$-0.20	$51,246,667	7 / 9
2026-09-08	$-0.20	$51,246,667	7 / 9
2026-09-09	$-0.20	$51,246,667	7 / 9
2026-09-10	$-0.19	$51,246,667	7 / 9
2026-09-11	$-0.19	$51,246,667	7 / 9
2026-09-12	$-0.19	$51,246,667	7 / 9
2026-09-13	$-0.19	$51,246,667	7 / 9
2026-09-14	$-0.19	$51,246,667	7 / 9
2026-09-15	$-0.19	$51,246,667	7 / 9
2026-09-16	$-0.19	$51,246,667	7 / 9
2026-09-17	$-0.19	$51,246,667	7 / 9
2026-09-18	$-0.19	$51,246,667	7 / 9
2026-09-19	$-0.19	$51,246,667	7 / 9
2026-09-20	$-0.19	$51,246,667	7 / 9
2026-09-21	$-0.19	$51,246,667	7 / 9
2026-09-22	$-0.19	$51,246,667	7 / 9
2026-09-23	$-0.19	$51,246,667	7 / 9
2026-09-24	$-0.19	$51,246,667	7 / 9
2026-09-25	$-0.19	$51,246,667	7 / 9
2026-09-26	$-0.19	$51,246,667	7 / 9
2026-09-27	$-0.19	$51,246,667	7 / 9
2026-09-28	$-0.19	$51,246,667	7 / 9
2026-09-29	$-0.19	$51,246,667	7 / 9
2026-09-30	$-0.19	$51,246,667	7 / 9
2026-10-01	$-0.19	$52,580,000	7 / 9
2026-10-02	$-0.19	$52,580,000	7 / 9
2026-10-03	$-0.19	$51,246,667	7 / 9
2026-10-04	$-0.19	$51,246,667	7 / 9
2026-10-05	$-0.19	$51,246,667	7 / 9
2026-10-06	$-0.19	$51,246,667	7 / 9
2026-10-07	$-0.19	$51,246,667	7 / 9
2026-10-08	$-0.19	$51,246,667	7 / 9
2026-10-09	$-0.19	$51,244,250	7 / 9
2026-10-10	$-0.19	$51,244,250	7 / 9
2026-10-11	$-0.19	$51,244,250	7 / 9
2026-10-12	$-0.19	$51,244,250	7 / 9
2026-10-13	$-0.19	$51,244,250	7 / 9
2026-10-14	$-0.19	$51,244,250	7 / 9
2026-10-15	$-0.19	$51,244,250	7 / 9
2026-10-16	$-0.19	$51,244,250	7 / 9
2026-10-17	$-0.19	$51,244,250	7 / 9
2026-10-18	$-0.19	$51,244,250	7 / 9
2026-10-19	$-0.19	$51,244,250	7 / 9
2026-10-20	$-0.19	$51,244,250	7 / 9
2026-10-21	$-0.19	$51,244,250	7 / 9
2026-10-22	$-0.19	$51,244,250	7 / 9
2026-10-23	$-0.19	$51,244,250	7 / 9
2026-10-24	$-0.19	$51,244,250	7 / 9

Revenue and EPS estimates track expectations. They are not delivered results or like-for-like proof of a required annual path.

Compare required revenue and earnings

Analyst view

Monthly observations

Buy / Strong BuyHoldSell / Strong Sell

Exact monthly counts

Monthly rating snapshots · fmp. Missing snapshots are not zero.
Date	Buy*	Hold	Sell*
2026-05-01	9	3	1
2026-06-01	9	4	1
2026-07-01	9	4	0
2026-08-01	9	4	0
2026-09-01	9	4	0
2026-10-01	9	4	0

*Buy includes Strong Buy; Sell includes Strong Sell. Monthly counts describe the analyst mix, not the firms behind each recent action.

Latest: 9 Buy / Strong Buy · 4 Hold · 0 Sell / Strong Sell

0 upgrades0 downgrades0 maintains

Recent actions · Sep 25–Oct 24 · 0 recorded

Price-target changes

30 days

Individual price-target observations are unavailable.

0 raises · 0 cuts · 0 unchanged · 0 without a comparable prior

How this is measured

Sep 25, 2026–Oct 24, 2026. Each firm's latest positive target is paired only with its immediately prior positive target from the same provider, at most 180 days earlier. Unmatched observations have one dot; conflicting observations are not compared.

Outlook in Brief

The evidence, the remaining questions, and what comes next

What's improving

No recovery evidence is reported in the available driver assessments.

Still unresolved / key risks

Increase revenue through Novera system salesRevenue: $5.138M
Reduce operating losses to improve financial stabilityPublished status: Broken

Next proof point

Nov 9, 2026

Look for updated results and guidance against the published targets, plus direct evidence for unresolved drivers.

Review earnings

Bottom line

2 of 3 published conditions remain under pressure or need verification. The next results need to address those conditions.

The dated weekly assessment and its assumptions are available in Read detailed Outlook.

Historical risk context

Observed price history; separate from operating scenarios

Price sensitivity

3.1%Typical daily move · historical

Downside history

-74.1%Maximum drawdown · trailing year

Read detailed Outlook Company context, assumptions & risks

Rigetti Computing, Inc. outlook in detail

The weekly editorial context below is a separate assessment from the dated monitor evidence above. Recovery observations do not automatically change the published thesis. Unverified outside influences are hypotheses, not measured driver evidence.

Updated Oct 24, 2026

What kind of bet this is

This is a speculative growth business in quantum computing, with fragile earnings quality and high risk. The long-term thesis is in a watch state: product and revenue milestones are progressing, but recent financial performance remains weak.

What's priced into Rigetti Computing, Inc.

The valuation is about 72% above peers, and the model has low confidence; its main support is the potential value of future growth options. Expectations appear demanding relative to current fundamentals, although the priced-in assessment labels them justified and finds low fragility in the current regime.

What the fundamentals likely do

Near term, revenue rose from $4.4 million in the first quarter of 2026 to $5.1 million in the second, while the 108-qubit system remained available and showed strong gate fidelity. The $100 million government funding agreement supports research, but recent results have been weak and the company has a run of earnings misses, making the next guidance update important.

What Rigetti Computing, Inc. hinges on

Over the next one to three years, the thesis hinges on turning system deployments, Novera sales, and research progress into more durable financial performance. A guidance cut would add to concerns after recent misses; easier interest rates or stronger results from major technology peers could provide a more supportive sector backdrop.

Bottom line

RGTI has real progress in system availability, deployments, and government-backed research, but it remains a high-risk, loss-making story with a demanding valuation and uneven execution. The multi-year view depends on whether commercial progress can strengthen fundamentals; evidence on that conversion is still limited. Not investment advice.

Not investment advice. Scores describe historical and current data; they are not forecasts of future returns. Consult a licensed advisor before making investment decisions.

Measure / period	Management expectations	Analyst expectations
Quarter ending 2026-12-30
Revenue	—	10.01M
EPS	—	-0.036
Annual ending 2026-12-31
Revenue	—	23.25M
EPS	—	-0.188
Annual ending 2027-12-31
Revenue	—	51.24M
EPS	—	-0.195

Expectations trend

Same fiscal period

FY2027 · fiscal year ending 2027-12-31 · fmp

FY2027 EPS$-0.19

$-0.20 → $-0.19 · observed estimates

FY2027 revenue$0.05B

$0.05B → $0.05B · observed estimates

Exact estimates & source dates

FY2027 estimate observations · fmp
Snapshot	EPS	Revenue	EPS / revenue analysts
2026-07-24	$-0.20	$52,493,136	6 / 8
2026-07-25	$-0.20	$52,493,136	6 / 8
2026-07-26	$-0.20	$52,493,136	6 / 8
2026-07-27	$-0.20	$52,493,136	6 / 8
2026-07-28	$-0.20	$44,503,450	9 / 11
2026-07-29	$-0.20	$45,178,170	9 / 12
2026-07-30	$-0.19	$52,502,042	7 / 8
2026-07-31	$-0.19	$52,503,350	7 / 9
2026-08-01	$-0.19	$52,503,350	7 / 9
2026-08-02	$-0.20	$45,178,170	9 / 12
2026-08-03	$-0.20	$45,178,170	9 / 12
2026-08-04	$-0.19	$52,503,350	7 / 9
2026-08-05	$-0.19	$52,503,350	7 / 9
2026-08-06	$-0.19	$52,503,350	7 / 9
2026-08-08	$-0.19	$52,504,483	7 / 9
2026-08-09	$-0.20	$43,885,270	9 / 11
2026-08-10	$-0.19	$52,504,483	7 / 9
2026-08-12	$-0.19	$52,504,483	7 / 9
2026-08-13	$-0.19	$52,504,483	7 / 9
2026-08-14	$-0.19	$52,504,483	7 / 9
2026-08-15	$-0.19	$52,504,483	7 / 9
2026-08-16	$-0.19	$52,504,483	7 / 9
2026-08-17	$-0.19	$52,504,483	7 / 9
2026-08-18	$-0.19	$52,504,483	7 / 9
2026-08-19	$-0.19	$52,504,483	7 / 9
2026-08-20	$-0.20	$52,155,000	7 / 9
2026-08-21	$-0.20	$52,155,000	7 / 9
2026-08-22	$-0.20	$52,155,000	7 / 9
2026-08-23	$-0.20	$52,155,000	7 / 9
2026-08-24	$-0.20	$52,155,000	7 / 9
2026-08-25	$-0.20	$52,155,000	7 / 9
2026-08-26	$-0.20	$52,155,000	7 / 9
2026-08-27	$-0.20	$52,155,000	7 / 9
2026-08-28	$-0.20	$52,155,000	7 / 9
2026-08-29	$-0.20	$52,155,000	7 / 9
2026-08-30	$-0.20	$51,246,667	7 / 9
2026-08-31	$-0.20	$51,246,667	7 / 9
2026-09-01	$-0.20	$51,246,667	7 / 9
2026-09-02	$-0.20	$51,246,667	7 / 9
2026-09-03	$-0.20	$51,246,667	7 / 9
2026-09-04	$-0.20	$51,246,667	7 / 9
2026-09-05	$-0.20	$51,246,667	7 / 9
2026-09-06	$-0.20	$51,246,667	7 / 9
2026-09-07	$-0.20	$51,246,667	7 / 9
2026-09-08	$-0.20	$51,246,667	7 / 9
2026-09-09	$-0.20	$51,246,667	7 / 9
2026-09-10	$-0.19	$51,246,667	7 / 9
2026-09-11	$-0.19	$51,246,667	7 / 9
2026-09-12	$-0.19	$51,246,667	7 / 9
2026-09-13	$-0.19	$51,246,667	7 / 9
2026-09-14	$-0.19	$51,246,667	7 / 9
2026-09-15	$-0.19	$51,246,667	7 / 9
2026-09-16	$-0.19	$51,246,667	7 / 9
2026-09-17	$-0.19	$51,246,667	7 / 9
2026-09-18	$-0.19	$51,246,667	7 / 9
2026-09-19	$-0.19	$51,246,667	7 / 9
2026-09-20	$-0.19	$51,246,667	7 / 9
2026-09-21	$-0.19	$51,246,667	7 / 9
2026-09-22	$-0.19	$51,246,667	7 / 9
2026-09-23	$-0.19	$51,246,667	7 / 9
2026-09-24	$-0.19	$51,246,667	7 / 9
2026-09-25	$-0.19	$51,246,667	7 / 9
2026-09-26	$-0.19	$51,246,667	7 / 9
2026-09-27	$-0.19	$51,246,667	7 / 9
2026-09-28	$-0.19	$51,246,667	7 / 9
2026-09-29	$-0.19	$51,246,667	7 / 9
2026-09-30	$-0.19	$51,246,667	7 / 9
2026-10-01	$-0.19	$52,580,000	7 / 9
2026-10-02	$-0.19	$52,580,000	7 / 9
2026-10-03	$-0.19	$51,246,667	7 / 9
2026-10-04	$-0.19	$51,246,667	7 / 9
2026-10-05	$-0.19	$51,246,667	7 / 9
2026-10-06	$-0.19	$51,246,667	7 / 9
2026-10-07	$-0.19	$51,246,667	7 / 9
2026-10-08	$-0.19	$51,246,667	7 / 9
2026-10-09	$-0.19	$51,244,250	7 / 9
2026-10-10	$-0.19	$51,244,250	7 / 9
2026-10-11	$-0.19	$51,244,250	7 / 9
2026-10-12	$-0.19	$51,244,250	7 / 9
2026-10-13	$-0.19	$51,244,250	7 / 9
2026-10-14	$-0.19	$51,244,250	7 / 9
2026-10-15	$-0.19	$51,244,250	7 / 9
2026-10-16	$-0.19	$51,244,250	7 / 9
2026-10-17	$-0.19	$51,244,250	7 / 9
2026-10-18	$-0.19	$51,244,250	7 / 9
2026-10-19	$-0.19	$51,244,250	7 / 9
2026-10-20	$-0.19	$51,244,250	7 / 9
2026-10-21	$-0.19	$51,244,250	7 / 9
2026-10-22	$-0.19	$51,244,250	7 / 9
2026-10-23	$-0.19	$51,244,250	7 / 9
2026-10-24	$-0.19	$51,244,250	7 / 9

Revenue and EPS estimates track expectations. They are not delivered results or like-for-like proof of a required annual path.

Compare required revenue and earnings