Riley Exploration Permian, Inc. (REPX)

AMEXEnergyOil & Gas Exploration & ProductionSnapshot 2026-10-23

$54.18+6.03%

Close 2026-10-23 · 1-day change

Investment OutlookAs of Oct 24, 2026

What could strengthen or challenge Riley Exploration Permian, Inc.’s outlook?

The long-term thesis, the evidence coming in, and the environment around it. Thesis dated Jul 8, 2026.

Higher potential upsideImproving expectations

Next-FY EPS estimate change · 30 days

Comparable estimates unavailable

+10% or more+5%0%−5%−10% or less

A matching fiscal period and sufficient coverage are required.

Higher risk of downsideWeakening expectations

One observable signal. This measures changing earnings expectations, not the probability of a gain or loss.

How this is measured

The calculation requires same-period, same-provider snapshots, positive EPS, at least five analysts and a baseline within three days of the requested lookback.

Measure / period	Management expectations	Analyst expectations
Quarter ending 2026-12-30
Revenue	—	171.3M
EPS	—	2.178
Annual ending 2026-12-31
Revenue	—	619.7M
EPS	—	7.069
Annual ending 2027-12-31
Revenue	—	684.8M
EPS	—	9.62

Management figures unavailable.

What the Thesis Depends On

4 published thesis conditions, with dated milestones shown separately.

Key Factor	Why It Matters	Current Status	Break Condition	Latest Evidence
Capital expenditure between $119M and $140M in 2025	A supporting condition in Riley Exploration Permian, Inc.'s published investment case. The stated target is 119-140 USD_MILLIONS.	Broken	Capex exceeds $140M or falls below $119M in 2025	Capital expenditures: $68.287M FY2026-Q2; GAAP. Published target: 119-140 USD_MILLIONS. Target period is not explicitly aligned with this observation. Source published Aug 5, 202668,287,000 USD · source valueSource reportLast status assessment Oct 24, 2026 Measurement source consolidated · GAAP FY2026-Q2 · Period ending Jun 30, 2026 Source: stock_quarterly_financials_fmp. Reference: 2026-Q2. Source status: unverified. Compare required operating outcomes Compare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement.
EPS growth to at least $6.24 in FY 2026 and $8.18 in FY 2027	A primary condition in Riley Exploration Permian, Inc.'s published investment case. The stated target is >=6.24 USD_PER_SHARE FY 2026 and >=8.18 USD_PER_SHARE FY 2027.	Intact	EPS falls below $6.24 in FY 2026 or below $8.18 in FY 2027	Direct metric needs a verified mapping The published measure or accounting basis is not supported by an exact source binding. Source date unavailableLast status assessment Oct 24, 2026Compare required operating outcomes Compare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement.
Operating income growth to at least $43.67M in 2026-Q1	Riley Exploration is improving operational efficiency, raising operating income from $26.16M to $43.67M in one quarter.	Intact	Operating income falls below $26M in any quarter after 2026-Q1	Operating income: $87.232M FY2026-Q2; GAAP. Published target: >=43.67 USD_MILLIONS operating income. The stored target says 2026-Q1; this source reports FY2026-Q2. Fiscal/calendar alignment needs review. Source published Aug 5, 202687,232,000 USD · source valueSource reportLast status assessment Oct 24, 2026 Measurement source consolidated · GAAP FY2026-Q2 · Period ending Jun 30, 2026 Source: company_financial_results. Reference: 92f46264-6694-4e6e-b213-59a09a5b0fd7. Source status: eligible. Compare required operating outcomes Compare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement.
Revenue growth driven by strategic acquisitions to at least $113.88M in 2026-Q1	Strategic acquisitions helped grow revenue from $97.28M to $113.88M in the same period.	Intact	Revenue falls below $97M in any quarter after 2026-Q1	Revenue: $165.85M FY2026-Q2; GAAP. Published target: >=113.88 USD_MILLIONS revenue. The stored target says 2026-Q1; this source reports FY2026-Q2. Fiscal/calendar alignment needs review. Source published Aug 5, 2026165,850,000 USD · source valueSource reportLast status assessment Oct 24, 2026 Measurement source consolidated · GAAP FY2026-Q2 · Period ending Jun 30, 2026 Source: company_financial_results. Reference: 92f46264-6694-4e6e-b213-59a09a5b0fd7. Source status: eligible. Compare required operating outcomes Compare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement.

Stored thesis · Jul 8, 2026. Latest Evidence uses source-matched measurements where available, alongside the last thesis-monitor assessment. Source periods and assessment dates are shown separately. A new measurement does not automatically change the published status or verify an older target.

Incoming Evidence

Compare these dated observations with the operating requirements above

Expectations trend

Same fiscal period

FY2027 · fiscal year ending 2027-12-31 · fmp

FY2027 EPSUnavailable

Unavailable → Unavailable · observed estimates

FY2027 revenue: comparable history unavailable.

Exact estimates & source dates

One fiscal period and provider throughout. At least five contributors are required for each plotted metric; missing coverage stays a gap. Axes show the observed range. Counts measure coverage, not revisions.

FY2027 estimate observations · fmp
Snapshot	EPS	Revenue	EPS / revenue analysts
2026-07-24	Unavailable	Unavailable	3 / 3
2026-07-25	$8.22	Unavailable	5 / 4
2026-07-26	$8.22	Unavailable	5 / 4
2026-07-27	$8.22	Unavailable	5 / 4
2026-07-28	$8.22	Unavailable	5 / 4
2026-07-29	$8.22	Unavailable	5 / 4
2026-07-30	$8.22	Unavailable	5 / 4
2026-07-31	Unavailable	Unavailable	4 / 3
2026-08-01	Unavailable	Unavailable	4 / 3
2026-08-02	$8.22	Unavailable	5 / 4
2026-08-03	Unavailable	Unavailable	4 / 3
2026-08-04	Unavailable	Unavailable	4 / 3
2026-08-05	$8.22	Unavailable	5 / 4
2026-08-06	$8.22	Unavailable	5 / 4
2026-08-08	$8.22	Unavailable	5 / 4
2026-08-09	$8.22	Unavailable	5 / 4
2026-08-10	$8.22	Unavailable	5 / 4
2026-08-12	Unavailable	Unavailable	4 / 3
2026-08-13	Unavailable	Unavailable	4 / 3
2026-08-14	Unavailable	Unavailable	4 / 3
2026-08-15	Unavailable	Unavailable	4 / 3
2026-08-16	Unavailable	Unavailable	4 / 3
2026-08-17	Unavailable	Unavailable	4 / 3
2026-08-18	Unavailable	Unavailable	4 / 3
2026-08-19	Unavailable	Unavailable	4 / 3
2026-08-20	Unavailable	Unavailable	4 / 3
2026-08-21	Unavailable	Unavailable	4 / 3
2026-08-22	Unavailable	Unavailable	4 / 3
2026-08-23	Unavailable	Unavailable	4 / 3
2026-08-24	Unavailable	Unavailable	4 / 3
2026-08-25	Unavailable	Unavailable	4 / 3
2026-08-26	Unavailable	Unavailable	4 / 3
2026-08-27	Unavailable	Unavailable	4 / 3
2026-08-28	Unavailable	Unavailable	4 / 3
2026-08-29	Unavailable	Unavailable	4 / 3
2026-08-30	Unavailable	Unavailable	4 / 3
2026-08-31	Unavailable	Unavailable	4 / 3
2026-09-01	Unavailable	Unavailable	4 / 3
2026-09-02	Unavailable	Unavailable	4 / 3
2026-09-03	Unavailable	Unavailable	4 / 3
2026-09-04	Unavailable	Unavailable	4 / 3
2026-09-05	Unavailable	Unavailable	4 / 3
2026-09-06	Unavailable	Unavailable	4 / 3
2026-09-07	Unavailable	Unavailable	4 / 3
2026-09-08	Unavailable	Unavailable	4 / 3
2026-09-09	Unavailable	Unavailable	4 / 3
2026-09-10	Unavailable	Unavailable	4 / 3
2026-09-11	Unavailable	Unavailable	4 / 3
2026-09-12	Unavailable	Unavailable	4 / 3
2026-09-13	Unavailable	Unavailable	4 / 3
2026-09-14	Unavailable	Unavailable	4 / 3
2026-09-15	Unavailable	Unavailable	4 / 3
2026-09-16	Unavailable	Unavailable	4 / 3
2026-09-17	Unavailable	Unavailable	4 / 3
2026-09-18	Unavailable	Unavailable	4 / 3
2026-09-19	Unavailable	Unavailable	4 / 3
2026-09-20	Unavailable	Unavailable	4 / 3
2026-09-21	Unavailable	Unavailable	4 / 3
2026-09-22	Unavailable	Unavailable	4 / 3
2026-09-23	Unavailable	Unavailable	4 / 3
2026-09-24	Unavailable	Unavailable	4 / 3
2026-09-25	Unavailable	Unavailable	4 / 3
2026-09-26	Unavailable	Unavailable	4 / 3
2026-09-27	Unavailable	Unavailable	4 / 3
2026-09-28	Unavailable	Unavailable	4 / 3
2026-09-29	Unavailable	Unavailable	4 / 3
2026-09-30	Unavailable	Unavailable	4 / 3
2026-10-01	Unavailable	Unavailable	4 / 3
2026-10-02	Unavailable	Unavailable	4 / 3
2026-10-03	Unavailable	Unavailable	4 / 3
2026-10-04	Unavailable	Unavailable	4 / 3
2026-10-05	Unavailable	Unavailable	4 / 3
2026-10-06	Unavailable	Unavailable	4 / 3
2026-10-07	Unavailable	Unavailable	4 / 3
2026-10-08	Unavailable	Unavailable	4 / 3
2026-10-09	Unavailable	Unavailable	4 / 3
2026-10-10	Unavailable	Unavailable	4 / 3
2026-10-11	Unavailable	Unavailable	4 / 3
2026-10-12	Unavailable	Unavailable	4 / 3
2026-10-13	Unavailable	Unavailable	4 / 3
2026-10-14	Unavailable	Unavailable	4 / 3
2026-10-15	Unavailable	Unavailable	4 / 3
2026-10-16	Unavailable	Unavailable	4 / 3
2026-10-17	Unavailable	Unavailable	4 / 3
2026-10-18	Unavailable	Unavailable	4 / 3
2026-10-19	Unavailable	Unavailable	4 / 3
2026-10-20	Unavailable	Unavailable	4 / 3
2026-10-21	Unavailable	Unavailable	4 / 3
2026-10-22	Unavailable	Unavailable	4 / 3
2026-10-23	Unavailable	Unavailable	4 / 3
2026-10-24	Unavailable	Unavailable	4 / 3

Revenue and EPS estimates track expectations. They are not delivered results or like-for-like proof of a required annual path.

Compare required revenue and earnings

Analyst view

Monthly observations

Buy / Strong BuyHoldSell / Strong Sell

Exact monthly counts

Monthly rating snapshots · fmp. Missing snapshots are not zero.
Date	Buy*	Hold	Sell*
2026-05-01	4	0	0
2026-06-01	4	0	0
2026-07-01	4	0	0
2026-08-01	4	0	0
2026-09-01	4	0	0
2026-10-01	4	0	0

*Buy includes Strong Buy; Sell includes Strong Sell. Monthly counts describe the analyst mix, not the firms behind each recent action.

Latest: 4 Buy / Strong Buy · 0 Hold · 0 Sell / Strong Sell

0 upgrades0 downgrades0 maintains

Recent actions · Sep 25–Oct 24 · 0 recorded

Price-target changes

30 days

Individual price-target observations are unavailable.

0 raises · 0 cuts · 0 unchanged · 0 without a comparable prior

How this is measured

Sep 25, 2026–Oct 24, 2026. Each firm's latest positive target is paired only with its immediately prior positive target from the same provider, at most 180 days earlier. Unmatched observations have one dot; conflicting observations are not compared.

Outlook in Brief

The evidence, the remaining questions, and what comes next

What's improving

No recovery evidence is reported in the available driver assessments.

Still unresolved / key risks

Capital expenditure between $119M and $140M in 2025Published status: Broken
EPS growth to at least $6.24 in FY 2026 and $8.18 in FY 2027Direct metric needs a verified mapping
Operating income growth to at least $43.67M in 2026-Q1Operating income: $87.232M
Revenue growth driven by strategic acquisitions to at least $113.88M in 2026-Q1Revenue: $165.85M

Next proof point

Nov 4, 2026

Look for updated results and guidance against the published targets, plus direct evidence for unresolved drivers.

Review earnings

Bottom line

4 of 4 published conditions remain under pressure or need verification. The next results need to address those conditions.

The dated weekly assessment and its assumptions are available in Read detailed Outlook.

Historical risk context

Observed price history; separate from operating scenarios

Price sensitivity

1.5%Typical daily move · historical

Downside history

-23.0%Maximum drawdown · trailing year

Read detailed Outlook Company context, assumptions & risks

Riley Exploration Permian, Inc. outlook in detail

The weekly editorial context below is a separate assessment from the dated monitor evidence above. Recovery observations do not automatically change the published thesis. Unverified outside influences are hypotheses, not measured driver evidence.

Updated Oct 24, 2026

What kind of bet this is

REPX is a growth-focused energy company with a thesis tied to rising oil production and the sector backdrop. The thesis is intact, but its recent signal has shifted from mildly favorable to mixed as capital-allocation and deal-related events add uncertainty.

What's priced into Riley Exploration Permian, Inc.

Valuation evidence is mixed: REPX is described as cheap versus peers, while another measure shows a 56% premium versus peers. The expectations gap is negative, and the pricing signal is described as justified, with low fragility; the evidence points to sector turbulence, not a broader combination of expensive valuation and weak fundamentals.

What the fundamentals likely do

Near term, production growth has been on track, and management raised full-year guidance; operating cash flow also improved in the latest quarter. Capital spending rose and free cash flow fell, so cash generation remains mixed, while erratic and declining earnings surprises and a possible guidance cut are risks to watch.

What Riley Exploration Permian, Inc. hinges on

Over the next year, the thesis depends on management delivering the production plan while keeping capital spending disciplined and improving free cash flow. Sector support is another swing factor: continued strength from energy bellwethers could sustain the tailwind, while weaker results or lower guidance could remove it.