Replimune Group, Inc. (REPL)

NASDAQHealth CareBiotechnologySnapshot 2026-10-23

$11.46-4.42%

Close 2026-10-23 · 1-day change

Investment OutlookAs of Oct 24, 2026

What could strengthen or challenge Replimune Group, Inc.’s outlook?

The long-term thesis, the evidence coming in, and the environment around it. Thesis dated Jul 8, 2026.

Higher potential upsideImproving expectations

Next-FY EPS estimate change · 30 days

Comparable estimates unavailable

+10% or more+5%0%−5%−10% or less

A matching fiscal period and sufficient coverage are required.

Higher risk of downsideWeakening expectations

One observable signal. This measures changing earnings expectations, not the probability of a gain or loss.

How this is measured

The calculation requires same-period, same-provider snapshots, positive EPS, at least five analysts and a baseline within three days of the requested lookback.

Measure / period	Management expectations	Analyst expectations
Quarter ending 2026-12-30
Revenue	—	8.24M
EPS	—	-0.788
Annual ending 2027-03-31
Revenue	—	40.64M
EPS	—	-2.887
Annual ending 2028-03-31
Revenue	—	178.74M
EPS	—	-1.908

Management figures unavailable.

What the Thesis Depends On

Three published thesis conditions, with dated milestones shown separately.

Key Factor	Why It Matters	Current Status	Break Condition	Latest Evidence
Resubmit BLA for RP1 with FDA	Replimune aims to resubmit its cancer drug RP1 to the FDA soon.	Recovered	BLA resubmission delayed beyond 2026-Q3	FDA approval granted vs mid-2026 target News confirms FDA approval for advanced melanoma treatment on 2026-08-13, resolving the BLA resubmission driver. Context reviewed through Oct 23, 2026Last status assessment Oct 24, 2026Compare required operating outcomes Compare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement. Management context Stated as a priority in 3 disclosures including 2026-Q1 and May 2026 press releases and August 2026 approval announcement. The FDA accepted the BLA resubmission with a goal date of August 2, 2026, and subsequently approved TUDRIQEV on August 6, 2026. This shows delivery on the regulatory approval priority. Delivery assessment Oct 24, 2026
Manage operating losses and cash burn	The company is cutting losses, improving cash burn from negative $77M to negative $65.9M.	Broken	Operating loss worsens beyond negative $71.9M by 2026-Q3	Operating income: $-68.247M FY2027-Q1; GAAP. Published target: Operating loss improves to no worse than negative $71.9M by 2026-Q3. The stored target says 2026-Q3; this source reports FY2027-Q1. Fiscal/calendar alignment needs review. Source published Aug 14, 2026-68,247,000 USD · source valueSource reportLast status assessment Oct 24, 2026 Measurement source consolidated · GAAP FY2027-Q1 · Period ending Jun 30, 2026 Source: company_financial_results. Reference: 5adbf147-a929-43ae-8bae-0eb385af4030. Source status: eligible. Compare required operating outcomes Compare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement.
Advance strategic partnership for RP1	A new strategic partnership supports RP1's development.	Improving	No partnership progress or deal termination by 2026-Q4	Qualitative: FDA approval secured 2026-08-13 FDA approved RP1 BLA on 2026-08-13; JPMorgan upgraded rating on resubmission path. Context reviewed through Oct 23, 2026Last status assessment Oct 24, 2026Compare required operating outcomes Compare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement.

Stored thesis · Jul 8, 2026. Latest Evidence uses source-matched measurements where available, alongside the last thesis-monitor assessment. Source periods and assessment dates are shown separately. A new measurement does not automatically change the published status or verify an older target.

Incoming Evidence

Compare these dated observations with the operating requirements above

Expectations trend

Same fiscal period

FY2028 · fiscal year ending 2028-03-31 · fmp

FY2028 EPS: comparable history unavailable.

FY2028 revenue$0.18B

$0.07B → $0.18B · observed estimates

Exact estimates & source dates

One fiscal period and provider throughout. At least five contributors are required for each plotted metric; missing coverage stays a gap. Axes show the observed range. Counts measure coverage, not revisions.

FY2028 estimate observations · fmp
Snapshot	EPS	Revenue	EPS / revenue analysts
2026-07-24	Unavailable	$69,912,600	3 / 5
2026-07-25	Unavailable	$69,912,600	3 / 5
2026-07-26	Unavailable	$69,912,600	3 / 5
2026-07-27	Unavailable	$69,912,600	3 / 5
2026-07-28	Unavailable	$69,912,600	3 / 5
2026-07-29	Unavailable	$69,912,600	3 / 5
2026-07-30	Unavailable	$69,912,600	3 / 5
2026-07-31	Unavailable	$69,912,600	3 / 5
2026-08-01	Unavailable	Unavailable	3 / 4
2026-08-02	Unavailable	$69,912,600	3 / 5
2026-08-03	Unavailable	Unavailable	3 / 4
2026-08-04	Unavailable	$103,116,400	3 / 5
2026-08-05	Unavailable	$107,996,400	3 / 5
2026-08-06	Unavailable	$107,996,400	3 / 5
2026-08-08	Unavailable	$107,996,400	3 / 5
2026-08-09	Unavailable	Unavailable	3 / 4
2026-08-10	Unavailable	$107,996,400	3 / 5
2026-08-12	Unavailable	$215,519,130	3 / 5
2026-08-13	Unavailable	$215,519,130	3 / 5
2026-08-14	Unavailable	Unavailable	3 / 4
2026-08-15	Unavailable	$142,491,480	3 / 5
2026-08-16	Unavailable	$142,491,480	3 / 5
2026-08-17	Unavailable	$142,491,480	3 / 5
2026-08-18	Unavailable	Unavailable	4 / 4
2026-08-19	Unavailable	Unavailable	3 / 4
2026-08-20	Unavailable	$165,717,486	4 / 5
2026-08-21	Unavailable	$175,431,771	4 / 5
2026-08-22	Unavailable	$175,431,771	4 / 5
2026-08-23	Unavailable	$175,431,771	4 / 5
2026-08-24	Unavailable	$175,431,771	3 / 5
2026-08-25	Unavailable	$175,431,771	3 / 5
2026-08-26	Unavailable	$175,431,771	3 / 5
2026-08-27	Unavailable	$175,431,771	3 / 5
2026-08-28	Unavailable	$175,431,771	3 / 5
2026-08-29	Unavailable	$175,431,771	3 / 5
2026-08-30	Unavailable	$175,431,771	3 / 5
2026-08-31	Unavailable	$175,431,771	3 / 5
2026-09-01	Unavailable	$175,431,771	3 / 5
2026-09-02	Unavailable	$175,431,771	3 / 5
2026-09-03	Unavailable	$175,431,771	3 / 5
2026-09-04	Unavailable	$175,431,771	3 / 5
2026-09-05	Unavailable	$175,431,771	3 / 5
2026-09-06	Unavailable	$175,431,771	3 / 5
2026-09-07	Unavailable	$175,431,771	3 / 5
2026-09-08	Unavailable	$175,431,771	3 / 5
2026-09-09	Unavailable	$175,431,771	3 / 5
2026-09-10	Unavailable	$159,488,112	3 / 5
2026-09-11	Unavailable	$178,741,688	3 / 5
2026-09-12	Unavailable	$178,741,688	3 / 5
2026-09-13	Unavailable	$178,741,688	3 / 5
2026-09-14	Unavailable	$178,741,688	3 / 5
2026-09-15	Unavailable	$178,741,688	3 / 5
2026-09-16	Unavailable	$178,741,688	3 / 5
2026-09-17	Unavailable	$178,741,688	3 / 5
2026-09-18	Unavailable	$178,741,688	3 / 5
2026-09-19	Unavailable	$178,741,688	3 / 5
2026-09-20	Unavailable	$178,741,688	3 / 5
2026-09-21	Unavailable	$178,741,688	3 / 5
2026-09-22	Unavailable	$178,741,688	3 / 5
2026-09-23	Unavailable	$178,741,688	3 / 5
2026-09-24	Unavailable	$178,741,688	3 / 5
2026-09-25	Unavailable	$178,741,688	3 / 5
2026-09-26	Unavailable	$178,741,688	3 / 5
2026-09-27	Unavailable	$178,741,688	3 / 5
2026-09-28	Unavailable	$178,741,688	3 / 5
2026-09-29	Unavailable	$178,741,688	4 / 5
2026-09-30	Unavailable	$178,741,688	4 / 5
2026-10-01	Unavailable	$178,741,688	4 / 5
2026-10-02	Unavailable	$178,741,688	4 / 5
2026-10-03	Unavailable	$178,741,688	4 / 5
2026-10-04	Unavailable	$178,741,688	4 / 5
2026-10-05	Unavailable	$178,741,688	4 / 5
2026-10-06	Unavailable	$178,741,688	4 / 5
2026-10-07	Unavailable	$178,741,688	4 / 5
2026-10-08	Unavailable	$178,741,688	4 / 5
2026-10-09	Unavailable	$178,741,688	4 / 5
2026-10-10	Unavailable	$178,741,688	4 / 5
2026-10-11	Unavailable	$178,741,688	4 / 5
2026-10-12	Unavailable	$178,741,688	4 / 5
2026-10-13	Unavailable	$178,741,688	4 / 5
2026-10-14	Unavailable	$178,741,688	4 / 5
2026-10-15	Unavailable	$178,741,688	4 / 5
2026-10-16	Unavailable	$178,741,688	4 / 5
2026-10-17	Unavailable	$178,741,688	4 / 5
2026-10-18	Unavailable	$178,741,688	4 / 5
2026-10-19	Unavailable	$178,741,688	4 / 5
2026-10-20	Unavailable	$178,741,688	4 / 5
2026-10-21	Unavailable	$178,741,688	4 / 5
2026-10-22	Unavailable	$178,741,688	4 / 5
2026-10-23	Unavailable	$178,741,688	4 / 5
2026-10-24	Unavailable	$178,741,688	4 / 5

Revenue and EPS estimates track expectations. They are not delivered results or like-for-like proof of a required annual path.

Compare required revenue and earnings

Analyst view

Monthly observations

Buy / Strong BuyHoldSell / Strong Sell

Exact monthly counts

Monthly rating snapshots · fmp. Missing snapshots are not zero.
Date	Buy*	Hold	Sell*
2026-05-01	0	6	3
2026-06-01	2	6	2
2026-07-01	4	5	2
2026-08-01	7	3	1
2026-09-01	7	0	1
2026-10-01	7	0	1

*Buy includes Strong Buy; Sell includes Strong Sell. Monthly counts describe the analyst mix, not the firms behind each recent action.

Latest: 7 Buy / Strong Buy · 0 Hold · 1 Sell / Strong Sell

0 upgrades0 downgrades0 maintains

Recent actions · Sep 25–Oct 24 · 0 recorded

Price-target changes

30 days

Individual price-target observations are unavailable.

0 raises · 0 cuts · 0 unchanged · 0 without a comparable prior

How this is measured

Sep 25, 2026–Oct 24, 2026. Each firm's latest positive target is paired only with its immediately prior positive target from the same provider, at most 180 days earlier. Unmatched observations have one dot; conflicting observations are not compared.

Outlook in Brief

The evidence, the remaining questions, and what comes next

What's improving

No recovery evidence is reported in the available driver assessments.

Still unresolved / key risks

Manage operating losses and cash burnPublished status: Broken

Next proof point

Oct 28, 2026

Look for updated results and guidance against the published targets, plus direct evidence for unresolved drivers.

Review earnings

Bottom line

1 of 3 published conditions remain under pressure or need verification. The next results need to address those conditions.

The dated weekly assessment and its assumptions are available in Read detailed Outlook.

Historical risk context

Observed price history; separate from operating scenarios

Price sensitivity

2.3%Typical daily move · historical

Downside history

-84.2%Maximum drawdown · trailing year

Read detailed Outlook Company context, assumptions & risks

Replimune Group, Inc. outlook in detail

The weekly editorial context below is a separate assessment from the dated monitor evidence above. Recovery observations do not automatically change the published thesis. Unverified outside influences are hypotheses, not measured driver evidence.

Updated Oct 24, 2026

What kind of bet this is

This is a high-risk, loss-making biotechnology company, not yet a proven durable compounder. Its thesis is in a watch state: management has advanced the launch and regulatory priorities, but recent performance has lagged its industry cohort and confidence in the evidence is low.

What's priced into Replimune Group, Inc.

The snapshot gives no valuation comparison or specific account of what the market expects, so whether REPL is cheap, fair, or expensive versus peers is unclear. It reports no active fragility warning, but that does not establish that expectations are modest.

What the fundamentals likely do

Near term, TUDRIQEV’s FDA approval and launch preparations are concrete progress, while the latest reported earnings were in line after a prior miss. Cash fell before a later financing, and the launch and clinical programs will need funding; the next results carry elevated miss risk. Over the multi-year view, fundamentals depend on commercial execution and clinical progress, including a planned Phase 2/3 transition for REVEAL in Q1 2027.

What Replimune Group, Inc. hinges on

The central swing factor is whether TUDRIQEV’s launch gains traction while REPL advances RP1 and RP2 trials. A guidance cut at the next call would be a negative signal, while continued strong results from healthcare peers could support sector momentum. Weaker jobs data could also raise recession concerns and weigh on healthcare names.