Arcus Biosciences, Inc. (RCUS)

NYSEHealth CareBiotechnologySnapshot 2026-10-23

$18.54-4.24%

Close 2026-10-23 · 1-day change

Investment OutlookAs of Oct 24, 2026

What could strengthen or challenge Arcus Biosciences, Inc.’s outlook?

The long-term thesis, the evidence coming in, and the environment around it. Thesis dated Jul 8, 2026.

Higher potential upsideImproving expectations

Next-FY EPS estimate change · 30 days

Comparable estimates unavailable

+10% or more+5%0%−5%−10% or less

A matching fiscal period and sufficient coverage are required.

Higher risk of downsideWeakening expectations

One observable signal. This measures changing earnings expectations, not the probability of a gain or loss.

How this is measured

The calculation requires same-period, same-provider snapshots, positive EPS, at least five analysts and a baseline within three days of the requested lookback.

Measure / period	Management expectations	Analyst expectations
FY 2026 · Q4
Revenue	—	5.49M
EPS	—	-0.858
FY 2026 · Annual
Revenue	$65M–$75MGAAP	73.15M
EPS	—	-3.563
FY 2027 · Annual
Revenue	—	52.17M
EPS	—	-3.305

What the Thesis Depends On

Three published thesis conditions, with dated milestones shown separately.

Key Factor	Why It Matters	Current Status	Break Condition	Latest Evidence
Operating losses stabilize or improve	Management is focused on reducing operating losses despite recent challenges.	Intact	Operating loss worsens beyond -$134 million over next 4 quarters	Operating income: $-96M FY2026-Q2; GAAP. Published target: Operating loss improves or stays better than -$134 million. Target period is not explicitly aligned with this observation. Source published Aug 5, 2026-96,000,000 USD · source valueSource reportLast status assessment Oct 24, 2026 Measurement source consolidated · GAAP FY2026-Q2 · Period ending Jun 30, 2026 Source: company_financial_results. Reference: 6352fa8c-626b-48e6-a968-4b224ef45fef. Source status: eligible. Compare required operating outcomes Compare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement.
Revenue grows to $50M-$65M in 2026	A primary condition in Arcus Biosciences, Inc.'s published investment case. The stated target is >= $50 million.	Intact	Revenue falls below $50 million in FY26	Revenue: $41M FY2026-Q2; GAAP. Published target: >= $50 million. Target period is not explicitly aligned with this observation. Source published Aug 5, 202641,000,000 USD · source valueSource reportLast status assessment Oct 24, 2026 Measurement source consolidated · GAAP FY2026-Q2 · Period ending Jun 30, 2026 Source: company_financial_results. Reference: 6352fa8c-626b-48e6-a968-4b224ef45fef. Source status: eligible. Compare required operating outcomes Compare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement.
Maintain collaboration with Gilead Sciences	It maintains a strategic partnership with Gilead Sciences.	Under Pressure	Partnership with Gilead ends or materially weakens	Partnership materially weakened (STAR-121 discontinued) Arcus announced discontinuation of the Phase 3 STAR-121 study with Gilead in April 2026 due to futility. Context reviewed through Oct 23, 2026Last status assessment Oct 24, 2026Compare required operating outcomes Compare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement.

Stored thesis · Jul 8, 2026. Latest Evidence uses source-matched measurements where available, alongside the last thesis-monitor assessment. Source periods and assessment dates are shown separately. A new measurement does not automatically change the published status or verify an older target.

Incoming Evidence

Compare these dated observations with the operating requirements above

Expectations trend

Same fiscal period

FY2027 · fiscal year ending 2027-12-31 · fmp

FY2027 EPS$-3.30

$-3.10 → $-3.30 · observed estimates

FY2027 revenue$0.05B

$0.09B → $0.05B · observed estimates

Exact estimates & source dates

One fiscal period and provider throughout. At least five contributors are required for each plotted metric; missing coverage stays a gap. Axes show the observed range. Counts measure coverage, not revisions.

FY2027 estimate observations · fmp
Snapshot	EPS	Revenue	EPS / revenue analysts
2026-07-24	$-3.10	$93,057,280	7 / 12
2026-07-25	$-3.10	$93,057,280	7 / 12
2026-07-26	$-3.10	$93,057,280	7 / 12
2026-07-27	$-3.10	$93,057,280	7 / 12
2026-07-28	$-3.10	$93,057,280	7 / 12
2026-07-29	$-3.10	$93,057,280	7 / 12
2026-07-30	$-3.44	$69,294,070	8 / 9
2026-07-31	$-3.10	$93,057,280	7 / 12
2026-08-01	$-3.44	$69,294,070	8 / 9
2026-08-02	$-3.10	$93,057,280	7 / 12
2026-08-03	$-3.10	$93,057,280	7 / 12
2026-08-04	$-3.10	$93,057,280	7 / 12
2026-08-05	$-3.10	$69,294,070	7 / 11
2026-08-06	$-3.10	$69,294,070	7 / 11
2026-08-07	$-3.45	$63,519,564	8 / 9
2026-08-08	$-3.45	$63,519,564	8 / 9
2026-08-09	$-3.45	$63,519,564	8 / 9
2026-08-10	$-3.22	$93,290,680	6 / 7
2026-08-12	$-3.25	$66,578,180	7 / 10
2026-08-13	$-3.25	$66,578,180	7 / 10
2026-08-14	$-3.45	$63,519,564	8 / 9
2026-08-15	$-3.45	$63,519,564	8 / 8
2026-08-16	$-3.45	$63,519,564	8 / 8
2026-08-17	$-3.45	$63,519,564	8 / 8
2026-08-18	$-3.45	$63,519,564	8 / 8
2026-08-19	$-3.45	$63,519,564	8 / 8
2026-08-20	$-3.48	$49,065,147	8 / 8
2026-08-21	$-3.48	$49,065,147	8 / 8
2026-08-22	$-3.48	$49,065,147	8 / 8
2026-08-23	$-3.48	$49,065,147	8 / 8
2026-08-24	$-3.48	$49,065,147	8 / 8
2026-08-25	$-3.48	$49,065,147	8 / 8
2026-08-26	$-3.48	$49,065,147	8 / 8
2026-08-27	$-3.48	$49,065,147	8 / 8
2026-08-28	$-3.48	$49,065,147	8 / 8
2026-08-29	$-3.48	$49,065,147	8 / 8
2026-08-30	$-3.48	$49,065,147	8 / 8
2026-08-31	$-3.48	$49,065,147	8 / 8
2026-09-01	$-3.48	$49,065,147	8 / 8
2026-09-02	$-3.48	$49,065,147	8 / 8
2026-09-03	$-3.48	$49,065,147	8 / 8
2026-09-04	$-3.48	$49,065,147	8 / 8
2026-09-05	$-3.48	$49,065,147	8 / 8
2026-09-06	$-3.48	$49,065,147	8 / 8
2026-09-07	$-3.48	$49,065,147	8 / 8
2026-09-08	$-3.48	$49,065,147	8 / 8
2026-09-09	$-3.48	$49,065,147	8 / 8
2026-09-10	$-3.48	$47,343,797	8 / 8
2026-09-11	$-3.48	$47,343,797	8 / 8
2026-09-12	$-3.48	$47,343,797	8 / 8
2026-09-13	$-3.48	$47,343,797	8 / 8
2026-09-14	$-3.48	$47,343,797	8 / 8
2026-09-15	$-3.48	$47,343,797	8 / 8
2026-09-16	$-3.48	$47,343,797	8 / 8
2026-09-17	$-3.50	$46,731,814	8 / 8
2026-09-18	$-3.50	$46,731,814	8 / 8
2026-09-19	$-3.50	$46,731,814	8 / 8
2026-09-20	$-3.50	$46,731,814	9 / 9
2026-09-21	$-3.50	$46,731,814	9 / 9
2026-09-22	$-3.50	$46,731,814	9 / 9
2026-09-23	$-3.50	$46,731,814	9 / 9
2026-09-24	$-3.50	$46,731,814	9 / 9
2026-09-25	$-3.50	$46,731,814	9 / 8
2026-09-26	$-3.50	$46,731,814	9 / 8
2026-09-27	$-3.50	$46,731,814	9 / 8
2026-09-28	$-3.50	$46,731,814	9 / 8
2026-09-29	$-3.50	$46,731,814	9 / 8
2026-09-30	$-3.50	$46,731,814	9 / 8
2026-10-01	$-3.43	$46,071,070	8 / 8
2026-10-02	$-3.43	$46,071,070	8 / 8
2026-10-03	$-3.43	$46,071,070	8 / 8
2026-10-04	$-3.43	$46,071,070	8 / 8
2026-10-05	$-3.43	$46,071,070	8 / 8
2026-10-06	$-3.43	$46,071,070	8 / 8
2026-10-07	$-3.43	$46,071,070	8 / 8
2026-10-08	$-3.43	$46,071,070	8 / 8
2026-10-09	$-3.43	$46,071,070	8 / 8
2026-10-10	$-3.43	$46,071,070	8 / 8
2026-10-11	$-3.43	$46,071,070	8 / 8
2026-10-12	$-3.43	$46,071,070	8 / 8
2026-10-13	$-3.43	$46,071,070	8 / 8
2026-10-14	$-3.43	$46,071,070	8 / 8
2026-10-15	$-3.34	$55,815,147	9 / 8
2026-10-16	$-3.34	$55,815,147	9 / 8
2026-10-17	$-3.34	$55,815,147	9 / 8
2026-10-18	$-3.30	$53,213,982	10 / 9
2026-10-19	$-3.30	$53,213,982	10 / 9
2026-10-20	$-3.30	$53,213,982	10 / 9
2026-10-21	$-3.30	$53,244,751	10 / 9
2026-10-22	$-3.30	$52,167,828	10 / 10
2026-10-23	$-3.30	$52,167,828	10 / 10
2026-10-24	$-3.30	$52,167,828	10 / 10

Revenue and EPS estimates track expectations. They are not delivered results or like-for-like proof of a required annual path.

Compare required revenue and earnings

Analyst view

Monthly observations

Buy / Strong BuyHoldSell / Strong Sell

Exact monthly counts

Monthly rating snapshots · fmp. Missing snapshots are not zero.
Date	Buy*	Hold
2026-05-01	9	3
2026-06-01	10	3
2026-07-01	10	3
2026-08-01	10	3
2026-09-01	11	3
2026-10-01	13	2

*Buy includes Strong Buy; Sell includes Strong Sell. Monthly counts describe the analyst mix, not the firms behind each recent action.

Latest: 13 Buy / Strong Buy · 2 Hold · 0 Sell / Strong Sell

0 upgrades0 downgrades4 maintains

Recent actions · Sep 25–Oct 24 · 4 recorded

Price-target changes

30 days

○ Previous · ● Latest · common dollar scale

Truist FinancialOct 21 · prior Sep 8

$40.00 → $41.00+2.5%

$0$22.55$45.10

1 raises · 0 cuts · 0 unchanged · 0 without a comparable prior

How this is measured

Sep 25, 2026–Oct 24, 2026. Each firm's latest positive target is paired only with its immediately prior positive target from the same provider, at most 180 days earlier. Unmatched observations have one dot; conflicting observations are not compared.

Outlook in Brief

The evidence, the remaining questions, and what comes next

What's improving

No recovery evidence is reported in the available driver assessments.

Still unresolved / key risks

Operating losses stabilize or improveOperating income: $-96M
Revenue grows to $50M-$65M in 2026Revenue: $41M
Maintain collaboration with Gilead SciencesPublished status: Under Pressure

Next proof point

Oct 27, 2026

Look for updated results and guidance against the published targets, plus direct evidence for unresolved drivers.

Review earnings

Bottom line

3 of 3 published conditions remain under pressure or need verification. The next results need to address those conditions.

The dated weekly assessment and its assumptions are available in Read detailed Outlook.

Historical risk context

Observed price history; separate from operating scenarios

Price sensitivity

2.1%Typical daily move · historical

Downside history

-41.3%Maximum drawdown · trailing year

Read detailed Outlook Company context, assumptions & risks

Arcus Biosciences, Inc. outlook in detail

The weekly editorial context below is a separate assessment from the dated monitor evidence above. Recovery observations do not automatically change the published thesis. Unverified outside influences are hypotheses, not measured driver evidence.

Updated Oct 24, 2026

What kind of bet this is

RCUS is a speculative clinical-stage biotech, meaning its long-term case depends heavily on developing medicines and reaching clinical milestones. The thesis is intact, with recent financial performance in the top half of its industry, but key priorities remain mixed and business risk is elevated.

What's priced into Arcus Biosciences, Inc.

The valuation is stretched, at a 2.19 premium versus peers, with a durable premium as the main driver. The model has low confidence and shows a 0.12 expectations gap, so the evidence does not clearly establish how much room remains between current expectations and execution.

What the fundamentals likely do

Over the multi-year view, results depend on advancing casdatifan and its studies, while the immunology pipeline adds longer-term development work. Cash declined from $1.0 billion in 2025-Q4 to $775 million in 2026-Q2, while revenue fell and then recovered; the latest two reported events were earnings beats after a May miss. Near term, guidance cuts and a high industry miss rate are risks to watch.

What Arcus Biosciences, Inc. hinges on

A key test is whether PEAK-1 enrollment is completed and the planned first-line Phase 3 study begins by year-end 2026. The thesis also depends on cash resources supporting these programs and on casdatifan establishing a role in kidney cancer treatment. Weakening jobs data could weigh on sector sentiment, while strong results and guidance from healthcare peers could support it.