RBC Bearings (RBC)

NYSEIndustrialsManufacturing - Tools & AccessoriesSnapshot 2026-10-23

$471.98-1.27%

Close 2026-10-23 · 1-day change

Investment OutlookAs of Oct 24, 2026

What could strengthen or challenge RBC Bearings’s outlook?

The long-term thesis, the evidence coming in, and the environment around it. Thesis dated Jul 8, 2026.

Higher potential upsideImproving expectations

Next-FY EPS estimate change · 30 days

+0.1%

+10% or more+5%0%−5%−10% or less

16.65 → 16.66 EPS · FY ending Mar 28, 2028 · 7 analysts

Higher risk of downsideWeakening expectations

One observable signal. This measures changing earnings expectations, not the probability of a gain or loss.

How this is measured

Change in the same fiscal period’s mean EPS estimate from Sep 24, 2026 to Oct 24, 2026: (new ÷ prior − 1). Contributor count changed from 7 to 7; this is not the number of analysts revising. Source: FMP consensus snapshots. The ±10% axis is a display range.

Measure / period	Management expectations	Analyst expectations
FY 2027 · Q2
Revenue	$505M–$515M	—
FY 2027 · Q3
Revenue	—	519.38M
EPS	—	3.585
FY 2027 · Annual
Revenue	—	2.13B
EPS	—	14.949
FY 2028 · Annual
Revenue	—	2.33B
EPS	—	16.656

What the Thesis Depends On

Three published thesis conditions, with dated milestones shown separately.

Key Factor	Why It Matters	Current Status	Break Condition	Latest Evidence
Gross margin stays between 45.25% and 45.5%	A primary condition in RBC Bearings's published investment case. The stated target is 45.25% to 45.5% gross margin.	Improving	Gross margin falls below 44.0%	Gross margin: 47.7% FY2027-Q1; GAAP. Published target: 45.25% to 45.5% gross margin. The stored target says 2026-Q1; this source reports FY2027-Q1. Fiscal/calendar alignment needs review. Source published Jul 31, 202647.699711 percent · calculatedSource reportLast status assessment Oct 24, 2026 Measurement source consolidated · GAAP FY2027-Q1 · Period ending Jun 27, 2026 Source: company_financial_results. Reference: bd9ed7bb-789e-47ec-9023-03597fcdccd0. Source status: eligible. Compare required operating outcomes Compare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement. Management context Stated as a priority in 4 of last 4 quarters. Adjusted gross margin improved from about 44.1% in 2026-Q2 to guidance of 45.5%-45.75% for 2027-Q1, with actual adjusted gross margin at 47.7% in 2027-Q1. The trajectory shows delivering improvement and maintenance of targeted margin levels. Delivery assessment Oct 24, 2026
Management delivers consistent earnings beats and stable guidance	The company beat EPS by 9% last quarter and shows stable management.	Intact	EPS misses consensus by more than 5% in any quarter	Direct metric needs a verified mapping The published measure or accounting basis is not supported by an exact source binding. Source date unavailableLast status assessment Oct 24, 2026Compare required operating outcomes Compare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement.
Revenue reaches $500M-$510M in Q1 2027	A primary condition in RBC Bearings's published investment case. The stated target is >= $500M revenue in Q1 2027.	Intact	Revenue falls below $495M in Q1 2027	Revenue: $519.5M FY2027-Q1; GAAP. Published target: >= $500M revenue in Q1 2027. The stored target says 2026-Q1; this source reports FY2027-Q1. Fiscal/calendar alignment needs review. Source published Jul 31, 2026519,500,000 USD · source valueSource reportLast status assessment Oct 24, 2026 Measurement source consolidated · GAAP FY2027-Q1 · Period ending Jun 27, 2026 Source: company_financial_results. Reference: bd9ed7bb-789e-47ec-9023-03597fcdccd0. Source status: eligible. Compare required operating outcomes Compare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement.

Stored thesis · Jul 8, 2026. Latest Evidence uses source-matched measurements where available, alongside the last thesis-monitor assessment. Source periods and assessment dates are shown separately. A new measurement does not automatically change the published status or verify an older target.

Incoming Evidence

Compare these dated observations with the operating requirements above

Expectations trend

Same fiscal period

FY2028 · fiscal year ending 2028-03-28 · fmp

FY2028 EPS$16.66

$16.20 → $16.66 · observed estimates

FY2028 revenue$2.33B

$2.31B → $2.33B · observed estimates

Exact estimates & source dates

One fiscal period and provider throughout. At least five contributors are required for each plotted metric; missing coverage stays a gap. Axes show the observed range. Counts measure coverage, not revisions.

FY2028 estimate observations · fmp
Snapshot	EPS	Revenue	EPS / revenue analysts
2026-07-24	$16.20	$2,312,662,817	5 / 6
2026-07-25	$16.20	$2,312,662,817	5 / 6
2026-07-26	$16.20	$2,312,662,817	5 / 6
2026-07-27	$16.20	$2,312,662,817	5 / 6
2026-07-28	$16.20	$2,312,662,817	5 / 6
2026-07-29	$16.20	$2,312,662,817	5 / 6
2026-07-30	$16.20	$2,312,662,817	5 / 6
2026-07-31	$16.20	$2,312,662,817	5 / 6
2026-08-01	$16.20	$2,312,662,817	5 / 6
2026-08-02	$16.27	$2,314,162,246	5 / 6
2026-08-03	$16.31	$2,317,290,817	5 / 6
2026-08-04	$16.31	$2,317,290,817	5 / 6
2026-08-05	$16.31	$2,317,290,817	5 / 6
2026-08-06	$16.31	$2,317,290,817	5 / 6
2026-08-07	$16.31	$2,317,290,817	5 / 6
2026-08-08	$16.31	$2,317,290,817	5 / 6
2026-08-09	$16.31	$2,317,290,817	5 / 6
2026-08-10	$16.31	$2,317,290,817	5 / 6
2026-08-12	$16.31	$2,317,290,817	5 / 6
2026-08-13	$16.31	$2,317,290,817	5 / 6
2026-08-14	$16.31	$2,317,290,817	5 / 6
2026-08-15	$16.31	$2,317,290,817	5 / 6
2026-08-16	$16.31	$2,317,290,817	5 / 6
2026-08-17	$16.31	$2,317,290,817	5 / 6
2026-08-18	$16.31	$2,317,290,817	5 / 6
2026-08-19	$16.31	$2,317,290,817	5 / 6
2026-08-20	$16.69	$2,333,888,855	5 / 6
2026-08-21	$16.69	$2,333,888,855	6 / 6
2026-08-22	$16.69	$2,333,888,855	6 / 6
2026-08-23	$16.69	$2,333,888,855	6 / 6
2026-08-24	$16.69	$2,333,888,855	6 / 6
2026-08-25	$16.69	$2,333,888,855	6 / 6
2026-08-26	$16.69	$2,333,888,855	6 / 6
2026-08-27	$16.69	$2,333,888,855	6 / 6
2026-08-28	$16.69	$2,333,888,855	6 / 6
2026-08-29	$16.66	$2,331,446,986	7 / 7
2026-08-30	$16.66	$2,331,446,986	7 / 7
2026-08-31	$16.66	$2,331,446,986	7 / 7
2026-09-01	$16.66	$2,331,446,986	7 / 7
2026-09-02	$16.66	$2,331,446,986	7 / 7
2026-09-03	$16.66	$2,331,446,986	7 / 7
2026-09-04	$16.66	$2,331,446,986	7 / 7
2026-09-05	$16.66	$2,331,446,986	7 / 7
2026-09-06	$16.66	$2,331,446,986	7 / 7
2026-09-07	$16.66	$2,331,446,986	7 / 7
2026-09-08	$16.66	$2,331,446,986	7 / 7
2026-09-09	$16.66	$2,331,446,986	7 / 7
2026-09-10	$16.66	$2,331,446,986	7 / 7
2026-09-11	$16.66	$2,331,446,986	7 / 7
2026-09-12	$16.66	$2,331,446,986	7 / 7
2026-09-13	$16.66	$2,331,446,986	7 / 7
2026-09-14	$16.66	$2,331,446,986	7 / 7
2026-09-15	$16.66	$2,331,446,986	7 / 7
2026-09-16	$16.65	$2,332,644,288	7 / 7
2026-09-17	$16.65	$2,332,644,288	7 / 7
2026-09-18	$16.65	$2,332,644,288	7 / 7
2026-09-19	$16.65	$2,332,644,288	7 / 7
2026-09-20	$16.65	$2,332,644,288	7 / 7
2026-09-21	$16.65	$2,332,644,288	7 / 7
2026-09-22	$16.65	$2,332,644,288	7 / 7
2026-09-23	$16.65	$2,332,644,288	7 / 7
2026-09-24	$16.65	$2,332,644,288	7 / 7
2026-09-25	$16.65	$2,332,644,288	8 / 8
2026-09-26	$16.65	$2,332,644,288	8 / 8
2026-09-27	$16.65	$2,332,644,288	8 / 8
2026-09-28	$16.65	$2,332,644,288	8 / 8
2026-09-29	$16.65	$2,332,644,288	8 / 8
2026-09-30	$16.65	$2,332,644,288	8 / 8
2026-10-01	$16.65	$2,332,644,288	8 / 8
2026-10-02	$16.66	$2,333,599,488	8 / 8
2026-10-03	$16.66	$2,333,599,488	8 / 8
2026-10-04	$16.66	$2,333,599,488	8 / 8
2026-10-05	$16.66	$2,333,599,488	8 / 8
2026-10-06	$16.66	$2,333,599,488	8 / 8
2026-10-07	$16.66	$2,333,599,488	7 / 8
2026-10-08	$16.66	$2,333,599,488	7 / 8
2026-10-09	$16.66	$2,333,599,488	7 / 8
2026-10-10	$16.66	$2,333,599,488	7 / 8
2026-10-11	$16.66	$2,333,599,488	7 / 8
2026-10-12	$16.66	$2,333,599,488	7 / 8
2026-10-13	$16.66	$2,333,599,488	7 / 8
2026-10-14	$16.66	$2,333,599,488	7 / 8
2026-10-15	$16.66	$2,333,599,488	7 / 8
2026-10-16	$16.66	$2,333,599,488	7 / 8
2026-10-17	$16.66	$2,333,599,488	7 / 8
2026-10-18	$16.66	$2,333,599,488	7 / 8
2026-10-19	$16.66	$2,333,599,488	7 / 8
2026-10-20	$16.66	$2,333,599,488	7 / 8
2026-10-21	$16.66	$2,333,670,000	7 / 8
2026-10-22	$16.66	$2,333,670,000	7 / 7
2026-10-23	$16.66	$2,333,670,000	7 / 7
2026-10-24	$16.66	$2,333,670,000	7 / 7

Revenue and EPS estimates track expectations. They are not delivered results or like-for-like proof of a required annual path.

Compare required revenue and earnings

Analyst view

Monthly observations

Buy / Strong BuyHoldSell / Strong Sell

Exact monthly counts

Monthly rating snapshots · fmp. Missing snapshots are not zero.
Date	Buy*	Hold	Sell*
2026-05-01	6	2	1
2026-06-01	6	2	1
2026-07-01	6	2	1
2026-08-01	7	2	1
2026-09-01	8	2	0
2026-10-01	8	2	0

*Buy includes Strong Buy; Sell includes Strong Sell. Monthly counts describe the analyst mix, not the firms behind each recent action.

Latest: 8 Buy / Strong Buy · 2 Hold · 0 Sell / Strong Sell

0 upgrades0 downgrades0 maintains

Recent actions · Sep 25–Oct 24 · 0 recorded

Price-target changes

30 days

Individual price-target observations are unavailable.

0 raises · 0 cuts · 0 unchanged · 0 without a comparable prior

How this is measured

Sep 25, 2026–Oct 24, 2026. Each firm's latest positive target is paired only with its immediately prior positive target from the same provider, at most 180 days earlier. Unmatched observations have one dot; conflicting observations are not compared.

Outlook in Brief

The evidence, the remaining questions, and what comes next

What's improving

No recovery evidence is reported in the available driver assessments.

Still unresolved / key risks

Gross margin stays between 45.25% and 45.5%Gross margin: 47.7%
Management delivers consistent earnings beats and stable guidanceDirect metric needs a verified mapping
Revenue reaches $500M-$510M in Q1 2027Revenue: $519.5M

Next proof point

Oct 30, 2026

Look for updated results and guidance against the published targets, plus direct evidence for unresolved drivers.

Review earnings

Bottom line

3 of 3 published conditions remain under pressure or need verification. The next results need to address those conditions.

The dated weekly assessment and its assumptions are available in Read detailed Outlook.

Historical risk context

Observed price history; separate from operating scenarios

Price sensitivity

1.1%Typical daily move · historical

Downside history

-27.3%Maximum drawdown · trailing year

Read detailed Outlook Company context, assumptions & risks

RBC Bearings outlook in detail

The weekly editorial context below is a separate assessment from the dated monitor evidence above. Recovery observations do not automatically change the published thesis. Unverified outside influences are hypotheses, not measured driver evidence.

Updated Oct 24, 2026

What kind of bet this is

RBC is a quality industrial business with robust earnings and stable management, rather than a turnaround story. Its multi-year view remains intact, though confidence has eased from high to medium and the sector backdrop is a headwind.

What's priced into RBC Bearings

RBC is valued at a substantial premium to peers, which appears tied to expectations of durable business quality. The priced-in assessment is justified, with a small positive expectations gap, but model confidence is low and the valuation leaves limited room for weaker execution.

What the fundamentals likely do

Near-term results show strong performance, including a recent earnings beat and a completed acquisition. Revenue growth is tracking management’s stated priorities, while gross margin and spending control show mixed progress despite favorable recent results. The near-term miss risk is described as low, but peer weakness and a past deep miss remain watch points.

What RBC Bearings hinges on

Over the next few quarters, the thesis depends on RBC sustaining revenue growth and managing margins and expenses. A guidance cut would be a meaningful negative; continued earnings strength and higher guidance from industrial bellwethers would support the sector backdrop, while misses or lower guidance could weaken it.