RBB Bancorp (RBB)

NASDAQFinancialsBanks - RegionalSnapshot 2026-10-23

$26.44-0.30%

Close 2026-10-23 · 1-day change

Investment OutlookAs of Oct 24, 2026

What could strengthen or challenge RBB Bancorp’s outlook?

The long-term thesis, the evidence coming in, and the environment around it. Thesis dated Jul 8, 2026.

Higher potential upsideImproving expectations

Next-FY EPS estimate change · 30 days

Comparable estimates unavailable

+10% or more+5%0%−5%−10% or less

A matching fiscal period and sufficient coverage are required.

Higher risk of downsideWeakening expectations

One observable signal. This measures changing earnings expectations, not the probability of a gain or loss.

How this is measured

The calculation requires same-period, same-provider snapshots, positive EPS, at least five analysts and a baseline within three days of the requested lookback.

Measure / period	Management expectations	Analyst expectations
Quarter ending 2026-12-30
Revenue	—	33.82M
EPS	—	0.566
Quarter ending 2027-03-31
Revenue	—	33.38M
EPS	—	0.55
Annual ending 2026-12-31
Revenue	—	135.55M
EPS	—	2.414
Annual ending 2027-12-31
Revenue	—	138.4M
EPS	—	2.38

Management figures unavailable.

What the Thesis Depends On

Three published thesis conditions, with dated milestones shown separately.

Key Factor	Why It Matters	Current Status	Break Condition	Latest Evidence
Maintain dividend per share at $0.16	It maintains a stable dividend of $0.16 per share.	Intact	dividend per share falls below $0.16	Dividend per share: $0.16 per share FY2026-Q2; GAAP. Published target: >= $0.16 per share. Target period is not explicitly aligned with this observation. Source published Aug 7, 20260.16 USD/share · source valueSource reportLast status assessment Oct 24, 2026 Measurement source consolidated · GAAP FY2026-Q2 · Period ending Jun 30, 2026 Source: company_financial_results. Reference: 82754c29-e7f1-4909-9c8d-b1ecb887922c. Source status: eligible. Compare required operating outcomes Compare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement.
Net income of at least $11.3 million in 2026-Q1	RBB Bancorp grows net income by increasing net interest income.	Intact	net income falls below $10.1 million in any quarter	Net income: $10.14M FY2026-Q2; GAAP. Published target: >= $11.3 million. The stored target says 2026-Q1; this source reports FY2026-Q2. Fiscal/calendar alignment needs review. Source published Aug 7, 202610,140,000 USD · source valueSource reportLast status assessment Oct 24, 2026 Measurement source consolidated · GAAP FY2026-Q2 · Period ending Jun 30, 2026 Source: company_financial_results. Reference: 82754c29-e7f1-4909-9c8d-b1ecb887922c. Source status: eligible. Compare required operating outcomes Compare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement.
Repurchase up to 1 million shares through June 2028	A supporting condition in RBB Bancorp's published investment case. The stated target is Repurchase plan active through 2028.	Intact	buyback plan canceled or materially reduced	Direct metric needs a verified mapping The published measure or accounting basis is not supported by an exact source binding. Source date unavailableLast status assessment Oct 24, 2026Compare required operating outcomes Compare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement.

Stored thesis · Jul 8, 2026. Latest Evidence uses source-matched measurements where available, alongside the last thesis-monitor assessment. Source periods and assessment dates are shown separately. A new measurement does not automatically change the published status or verify an older target.

Incoming Evidence

Compare these dated observations with the operating requirements above

Expectations trend

Same fiscal period

FY2027 · fiscal year ending 2027-12-31 · fmp

FY2027 EPSUnavailable

$2.51 → Unavailable · observed estimates

FY2027 revenue: comparable history unavailable.

Exact estimates & source dates

One fiscal period and provider throughout. At least five contributors are required for each plotted metric; missing coverage stays a gap. Axes show the observed range. Counts measure coverage, not revisions.

FY2027 estimate observations · fmp
Snapshot	EPS	Revenue	EPS / revenue analysts
2026-07-24	$2.51	Unavailable	5 / 3
2026-07-25	$2.51	Unavailable	5 / 3
2026-07-26	$2.51	Unavailable	5 / 3
2026-07-27	$2.51	Unavailable	5 / 3
2026-07-28	$2.51	Unavailable	5 / 3
2026-07-29	$2.51	Unavailable	5 / 3
2026-07-30	$2.51	Unavailable	5 / 3
2026-07-31	$2.51	Unavailable	5 / 3
2026-08-01	$2.51	Unavailable	5 / 3
2026-08-02	$2.51	Unavailable	5 / 3
2026-08-03	$2.51	Unavailable	5 / 3
2026-08-04	$2.51	Unavailable	5 / 3
2026-08-05	$2.51	Unavailable	5 / 3
2026-08-06	$2.51	Unavailable	5 / 3
2026-08-07	$2.51	Unavailable	5 / 3
2026-08-08	$2.51	Unavailable	5 / 3
2026-08-09	$2.51	Unavailable	5 / 3
2026-08-10	$2.51	Unavailable	5 / 3
2026-08-12	$2.51	Unavailable	5 / 3
2026-08-13	$2.51	Unavailable	5 / 3
2026-08-14	$2.51	Unavailable	5 / 3
2026-08-15	$2.51	Unavailable	5 / 3
2026-08-16	$2.51	Unavailable	5 / 3
2026-08-17	$2.51	Unavailable	5 / 3
2026-08-18	$2.51	Unavailable	5 / 3
2026-08-19	$2.51	Unavailable	5 / 3
2026-08-20	$2.51	Unavailable	5 / 3
2026-08-21	$2.51	Unavailable	5 / 3
2026-08-22	$2.51	Unavailable	5 / 3
2026-08-23	$2.51	Unavailable	5 / 3
2026-08-24	$2.51	Unavailable	5 / 3
2026-08-25	$2.51	Unavailable	5 / 3
2026-08-26	$2.51	Unavailable	5 / 3
2026-08-27	$2.51	Unavailable	5 / 3
2026-08-28	$2.51	Unavailable	5 / 3
2026-08-29	$2.51	Unavailable	5 / 3
2026-08-30	$2.51	Unavailable	5 / 3
2026-08-31	$2.51	Unavailable	5 / 3
2026-09-01	$2.51	Unavailable	5 / 3
2026-09-02	$2.51	Unavailable	5 / 3
2026-09-03	$2.51	Unavailable	5 / 3
2026-09-04	$2.51	Unavailable	5 / 3
2026-09-05	$2.51	Unavailable	5 / 3
2026-09-06	$2.51	Unavailable	5 / 3
2026-09-07	$2.51	Unavailable	5 / 3
2026-09-08	$2.51	Unavailable	5 / 3
2026-09-09	$2.51	Unavailable	5 / 3
2026-09-10	$2.51	Unavailable	5 / 3
2026-09-11	$2.51	Unavailable	5 / 3
2026-09-12	$2.51	Unavailable	5 / 3
2026-09-13	$2.51	Unavailable	5 / 3
2026-09-14	$2.51	Unavailable	5 / 3
2026-09-15	$2.51	Unavailable	5 / 3
2026-09-16	$2.51	Unavailable	5 / 3
2026-09-17	$2.51	Unavailable	5 / 3
2026-09-18	$2.51	Unavailable	5 / 3
2026-09-19	$2.51	Unavailable	5 / 3
2026-09-20	$2.51	Unavailable	5 / 3
2026-09-21	$2.51	Unavailable	5 / 3
2026-09-22	$2.51	Unavailable	5 / 3
2026-09-23	$2.49	Unavailable	5 / 3
2026-09-24	$2.49	Unavailable	5 / 3
2026-09-25	$2.49	Unavailable	5 / 3
2026-09-26	$2.49	Unavailable	5 / 3
2026-09-27	$2.49	Unavailable	5 / 3
2026-09-28	$2.49	Unavailable	5 / 3
2026-09-29	$2.49	Unavailable	5 / 3
2026-09-30	$2.49	Unavailable	5 / 3
2026-10-01	$2.49	Unavailable	5 / 3
2026-10-02	$2.49	Unavailable	5 / 3
2026-10-03	$2.49	Unavailable	5 / 3
2026-10-04	$2.49	Unavailable	5 / 3
2026-10-05	$2.49	Unavailable	5 / 3
2026-10-06	$2.49	Unavailable	5 / 3
2026-10-07	$2.49	Unavailable	5 / 3
2026-10-08	$2.48	Unavailable	5 / 3
2026-10-09	$2.48	Unavailable	5 / 3
2026-10-10	$2.48	Unavailable	5 / 3
2026-10-11	$2.48	Unavailable	5 / 3
2026-10-12	$2.48	Unavailable	5 / 3
2026-10-13	$2.48	Unavailable	5 / 3
2026-10-14	$2.48	Unavailable	5 / 3
2026-10-15	Unavailable	Unavailable	4 / 3
2026-10-16	Unavailable	Unavailable	4 / 3
2026-10-17	Unavailable	Unavailable	4 / 3
2026-10-18	Unavailable	Unavailable	4 / 3
2026-10-19	Unavailable	Unavailable	4 / 3
2026-10-20	Unavailable	Unavailable	4 / 3
2026-10-21	Unavailable	Unavailable	4 / 3
2026-10-22	Unavailable	Unavailable	4 / 3
2026-10-23	Unavailable	Unavailable	4 / 3
2026-10-24	Unavailable	Unavailable	4 / 3

Revenue and EPS estimates track expectations. They are not delivered results or like-for-like proof of a required annual path.

Compare required revenue and earnings

Analyst view

Monthly observations

Buy / Strong BuyHoldSell / Strong Sell

Exact monthly counts

Monthly rating snapshots · fmp. Missing snapshots are not zero.
Date	Buy*	Hold
2026-05-01	0	5
2026-06-01	1	5
2026-07-01	1	4
2026-08-01	1	4
2026-09-01	1	4
2026-10-01	1	4

*Buy includes Strong Buy; Sell includes Strong Sell. Monthly counts describe the analyst mix, not the firms behind each recent action.

Latest: 1 Buy / Strong Buy · 4 Hold · 0 Sell / Strong Sell

0 upgrades0 downgrades2 maintains

Recent actions · Sep 25–Oct 24 · 2 recorded

Price-target changes

30 days

Individual price-target observations are unavailable.

0 raises · 0 cuts · 0 unchanged · 0 without a comparable prior

How this is measured

Sep 25, 2026–Oct 24, 2026. Each firm's latest positive target is paired only with its immediately prior positive target from the same provider, at most 180 days earlier. Unmatched observations have one dot; conflicting observations are not compared.

Outlook in Brief

The evidence, the remaining questions, and what comes next

What's improving

No recovery evidence is reported in the available driver assessments.

Still unresolved / key risks

Maintain dividend per share at $0.16Dividend per share: $0.16 per share
Net income of at least $11.3 million in 2026-Q1Net income: $10.14M
Repurchase up to 1 million shares through June 2028Direct metric needs a verified mapping

Next proof point

Next earnings date unavailable

Look for updated results and guidance against the published targets, plus direct evidence for unresolved drivers.

Review earnings

Bottom line

3 of 3 published conditions remain under pressure or need verification. The next results need to address those conditions.

The dated weekly assessment and its assumptions are available in Read detailed Outlook.

Historical risk context

Observed price history; separate from operating scenarios

Price sensitivity

0.7%Typical daily move · historical

Downside history

-8.9%Maximum drawdown · trailing year

Read detailed Outlook Company context, assumptions & risks

RBB Bancorp outlook in detail

The weekly editorial context below is a separate assessment from the dated monitor evidence above. Recovery observations do not automatically change the published thesis. Unverified outside influences are hypotheses, not measured driver evidence.

Updated Oct 24, 2026

What kind of bet this is

RBB is a small-cap bank with a mixed, execution-dependent multi-year view, rather than a clear-cut growth or turnaround story. Management has made progress on asset quality, funding, and loan growth, while recent financial performance remains below its industry cohort.

What's priced into RBB Bancorp

The evidence describes RBB as cheap versus peers, though its overall priced-in tag is stretched, so the valuation signals are mixed. The expectations gap is modest, and the low fragility rating suggests weak execution is not fully compounded by an expensive and turbulent setup.

What the fundamentals likely do

Near term, recent earnings beats and stronger momentum are constructive, but they have not erased the performance gap with the industry cohort. Management has reported lower nonperforming assets, more retail deposits, and loan growth; fragile earnings quality and a Financials-sector headwind remain concerns over the multi-year view.

What RBB Bancorp hinges on

A guidance cut on the next call would be a meaningful negative, while continued progress on problem assets and funding quality would support the operating case. Sector conditions also matter: rate cuts could weigh on Financials, while strong earnings and guidance from sector bellwethers could support momentum.