RB Global (RBA)

NYSEIndustrialsSpecialty Business ServicesSnapshot 2026-10-23

$84.19-0.24%

Close 2026-10-23 · 1-day change

Investment OutlookAs of Oct 24, 2026

What could strengthen or challenge RB Global’s outlook?

The long-term thesis, the evidence coming in, and the environment around it. Thesis dated Jul 8, 2026.

Higher potential upsideImproving expectations

Next-FY EPS estimate change · 30 days

+1.8%

+10% or more+5%0%−5%−10% or less

4.74 → 4.83 EPS · FY ending Dec 31, 2027 · 6 analysts

Higher risk of downsideWeakening expectations

One observable signal. This measures changing earnings expectations, not the probability of a gain or loss.

How this is measured

Change in the same fiscal period’s mean EPS estimate from Sep 24, 2026 to Oct 24, 2026: (new ÷ prior − 1). Contributor count changed from 6 to 6; this is not the number of analysts revising. Source: FMP consensus snapshots. The ±10% axis is a display range.

Measure / period	Management expectations	Analyst expectations
FY 2026 · Q4
Revenue	—	1.3B
EPS	—	1.232
FY 2026 · Annual
Revenue	—	5.05B
EPS	—	4.399
Capital expenditure	$350M–$400M	—
EBITDA	$1.5B–$1.55Bnon-GAAP	—
FY 2027 · Annual
Revenue	—	5.33B
EPS	—	4.826

What the Thesis Depends On

4 published thesis conditions, with dated milestones shown separately.

Key Factor	Why It Matters	Current Status	Break Condition	Latest Evidence
Successful integration of Big Iron Auction Company	A supporting condition in RB Global's published investment case. The stated target is Acquisition finalized and integrated by end of 2026.	Intact	Acquisition not finalized or integration issues materially hurt results	Acquisition finalized May 18, 2026 vs end-2026 target May 2026 filing confirms Big Iron acquisition finalized. Q2 2026 earnings beat and buyback expansion indicate healthy execution. Context reviewed through Oct 23, 2026Last status assessment Oct 24, 2026Compare required operating outcomes Compare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement. Management context Stated as a priority in 3 of last 3 quarters. Management announced the pending acquisition in 2025-Q4, received FTC early termination in 2026-Q1, and completed it by 2026-Q2. This acquisition strengthens RB Global's position in the U.S. agriculture market and expands customer reach, consistent with management's stated growth strategy, indicating delivery on this priority. Delivery assessment Oct 24, 2026
Maintain quarterly dividend at $0.31 per share	The company maintains a steady dividend of $0.31 per share.	Intact	Dividend per share falls below $0.31 quarterly	Dividend per share: $0.31 per share FY2026-Q2; GAAP. Published target: $0.31 per share quarterly dividend. Target period is not explicitly aligned with this observation. Source published Aug 4, 20260.31 USD/share · source valueSource reportLast status assessment Oct 24, 2026 Measurement source consolidated · GAAP FY2026-Q2 · Period ending Jun 30, 2026 Source: company_financial_results. Reference: ece15764-478f-4b04-b204-72f22434dd89. Source status: eligible. Compare required operating outcomes Compare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement. Management context Stated as a priority in 4 of last 4 quarters. The quarterly dividend per share increased from $0.29 in 2025-Q3 to $0.33 in 2026-Q2, reflecting management's commitment to returning capital to shareholders and growing dividends, consistent with their stated capital allocation strategy. Delivery assessment Oct 24, 2026
Gross margin near 6-9%	Profit margins are expected to stay near 6-9%.	Intact	Gross margin falls below 6% in FY26	Gross margin: 17.14% FY2026-Q2; GAAP. Published target: 6-9% gross margin. Target period is not explicitly aligned with this observation. Source published Aug 4, 202617.136132 percent · calculatedSource reportLast status assessment Oct 24, 2026 Measurement source consolidated · GAAP FY2026-Q2 · Period ending Jun 30, 2026 Source: stock_quarterly_financials_fmp. Reference: 2026-Q2. Source status: unverified. Compare required operating outcomes Compare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement.
Total revenue growth of at least 6% annually	A primary condition in RB Global's published investment case. The stated target is >=6% YoY.	Intact	YoY revenue growth falls below 6% next year	Revenue growth: 11.05% FY2026-Q2; GAAP. Published target: >=6% YoY. Target period is not explicitly aligned with this observation. Source published Aug 4, 202611.053963 percent · calculatedSource reportLast status assessment Oct 24, 2026 Measurement source consolidated · GAAP FY2026-Q2 · Period ending Jun 30, 2026 Source: company_financial_results. Reference: ece15764-478f-4b04-b204-72f22434dd89. Source status: eligible. Compare required operating outcomes Compare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement.

Stored thesis · Jul 8, 2026. Latest Evidence uses source-matched measurements where available, alongside the last thesis-monitor assessment. Source periods and assessment dates are shown separately. A new measurement does not automatically change the published status or verify an older target.

Incoming Evidence

Compare these dated observations with the operating requirements above

Expectations trend

Same fiscal period

FY2027 · fiscal year ending 2027-12-31 · fmp

FY2027 EPS$4.83

$4.89 → $4.83 · observed estimates

FY2027 revenue$5.33B

$5.14B → $5.33B · observed estimates

Exact estimates & source dates

One fiscal period and provider throughout. At least five contributors are required for each plotted metric; missing coverage stays a gap. Axes show the observed range. Counts measure coverage, not revisions.

FY2027 estimate observations · fmp
Snapshot	EPS	Revenue	EPS / revenue analysts
2026-07-24	$4.89	$5,144,307,750	12 / 10
2026-07-25	$4.89	$5,144,307,750	12 / 10
2026-07-26	$4.89	$5,144,307,750	12 / 10
2026-07-27	$4.89	$5,144,307,750	12 / 10
2026-07-28	$4.89	$5,144,307,750	12 / 10
2026-07-29	$4.85	$5,144,307,750	12 / 10
2026-07-30	$4.85	$5,144,307,750	12 / 10
2026-07-31	$4.83	$5,161,733,956	6 / 7
2026-08-01	$4.83	$5,161,733,956	6 / 7
2026-08-02	$4.85	$5,144,307,750	12 / 10
2026-08-03	$4.83	$5,161,733,956	6 / 7
2026-08-04	$4.78	$5,135,205,822	6 / 7
2026-08-05	$4.78	$5,135,205,822	6 / 7
2026-08-06	$4.85	$5,144,307,750	12 / 10
2026-08-07	$4.77	$5,260,777,869	6 / 7
2026-08-08	$4.81	$5,251,634,480	11 / 10
2026-08-09	$4.81	$5,251,634,480	11 / 10
2026-08-10	$4.77	$5,260,777,869	6 / 7
2026-08-12	$4.84	$5,261,734,480	11 / 10
2026-08-13	$4.84	$5,261,734,480	11 / 10
2026-08-14	$4.77	$5,260,777,869	6 / 7
2026-08-15	$4.77	$5,260,777,869	6 / 7
2026-08-16	$4.77	$5,260,777,869	6 / 7
2026-08-17	$4.77	$5,260,777,869	6 / 7
2026-08-18	$4.77	$5,260,777,869	6 / 7
2026-08-19	$4.77	$5,260,777,869	6 / 7
2026-08-20	$4.84	$5,318,234,425	6 / 7
2026-08-21	$4.87	$5,351,505,737	6 / 7
2026-08-22	$4.88	$5,360,378,087	6 / 7
2026-08-23	$4.87	$5,360,378,087	6 / 7
2026-08-24	$4.87	$5,360,378,087	6 / 7
2026-08-25	$4.88	$5,368,511,074	6 / 7
2026-08-26	$4.85	$5,338,197,212	6 / 7
2026-08-27	$4.85	$5,338,197,212	6 / 7
2026-08-28	$4.85	$5,338,197,212	6 / 7
2026-08-29	$4.84	$5,333,761,037	6 / 7
2026-08-30	$4.84	$5,333,761,037	6 / 7
2026-08-31	$4.84	$5,333,761,037	6 / 7
2026-09-01	$4.83	$5,314,537,612	6 / 7
2026-09-02	$4.84	$5,333,761,037	6 / 7
2026-09-03	$4.83	$5,315,276,975	6 / 7
2026-09-04	$4.85	$5,338,197,212	6 / 7
2026-09-05	$4.86	$5,355,202,549	6 / 7
2026-09-06	$4.86	$5,355,202,549	6 / 7
2026-09-07	$4.86	$5,355,202,549	6 / 7
2026-09-08	$4.85	$5,339,675,937	6 / 7
2026-09-09	$4.86	$5,349,287,649	6 / 7
2026-09-10	$4.87	$5,360,378,087	6 / 7
2026-09-11	$4.85	$5,343,372,749	6 / 7
2026-09-12	$4.85	$5,343,372,749	6 / 7
2026-09-13	$4.85	$5,343,372,749	6 / 7
2026-09-14	$4.85	$5,343,372,749	6 / 7
2026-09-15	$4.80	$5,318,588,552	6 / 7
2026-09-16	$4.79	$5,307,515,848	6 / 7
2026-09-17	$4.79	$5,300,134,046	6 / 7
2026-09-18	$4.76	$5,273,559,558	6 / 7
2026-09-19	$4.76	$5,272,821,377	6 / 7
2026-09-20	$4.76	$5,272,821,377	6 / 7
2026-09-21	$4.76	$5,272,821,377	6 / 7
2026-09-22	$4.76	$5,275,774,098	6 / 7
2026-09-23	$4.75	$5,258,057,773	6 / 7
2026-09-24	$4.74	$5,247,539,747	6 / 7
2026-09-25	$4.72	$5,230,562,196	6 / 7
2026-09-26	$4.71	$5,216,537,262	6 / 7
2026-09-27	$4.71	$5,216,537,262	6 / 7
2026-09-28	$4.71	$5,216,537,262	6 / 7
2026-09-29	$4.71	$5,220,107,517	6 / 7
2026-09-30	$4.70	$5,209,026,055	6 / 7
2026-10-01	$4.70	$5,203,854,706	6 / 7
2026-10-02	$4.69	$5,188,340,659	6 / 7
2026-10-03	$4.69	$5,192,034,479	6 / 7
2026-10-04	$4.69	$5,192,034,479	6 / 7
2026-10-05	$4.68	$5,182,430,545	6 / 7
2026-10-06	$4.68	$5,182,430,545	6 / 7
2026-10-07	$4.69	$5,180,214,253	6 / 7
2026-10-08	$4.70	$5,197,205,829	6 / 7
2026-10-09	$4.67	$5,196,845,427	6 / 7
2026-10-10	$4.73	$5,218,897,823	6 / 7
2026-10-11	$4.73	$5,218,897,823	6 / 7
2026-10-12	$4.72	$5,207,754,268	6 / 7
2026-10-13	$4.72	$5,213,340,786	6 / 7
2026-10-14	$4.74	$5,237,180,013	6 / 7
2026-10-15	$4.75	$5,250,574,094	6 / 7
2026-10-16	$4.75	$5,243,105,233	6 / 7
2026-10-17	$4.75	$5,243,105,233	6 / 7
2026-10-18	$4.76	$5,261,777,260	6 / 7
2026-10-19	$4.76	$5,261,777,260	6 / 7
2026-10-20	$4.78	$5,278,955,525	6 / 7
2026-10-21	$4.79	$5,290,158,742	6 / 7
2026-10-22	$4.81	$5,307,337,007	6 / 7
2026-10-23	$4.81	$5,314,058,936	6 / 7
2026-10-24	$4.83	$5,328,996,558	6 / 7

Revenue and EPS estimates track expectations. They are not delivered results or like-for-like proof of a required annual path.

Compare required revenue and earnings

Analyst view

Monthly observations

Buy / Strong BuyHoldSell / Strong Sell

Exact monthly counts

Monthly rating snapshots · fmp. Missing snapshots are not zero.
Date	Buy*	Hold	Sell*
2026-05-01	10	2	0
2026-06-01	11	2	1
2026-07-01	10	2	1
2026-08-01	11	2	0
2026-09-01	11	1	0
2026-10-01	11	1	0

*Buy includes Strong Buy; Sell includes Strong Sell. Monthly counts describe the analyst mix, not the firms behind each recent action.

Latest: 11 Buy / Strong Buy · 1 Hold · 0 Sell / Strong Sell

0 upgrades0 downgrades1 maintains

Recent actions · Sep 25–Oct 24 · 1 recorded

Price-target changes

30 days

Individual price-target observations are unavailable.

0 raises · 0 cuts · 0 unchanged · 0 without a comparable prior

How this is measured

Sep 25, 2026–Oct 24, 2026. Each firm's latest positive target is paired only with its immediately prior positive target from the same provider, at most 180 days earlier. Unmatched observations have one dot; conflicting observations are not compared.

Outlook in Brief

The evidence, the remaining questions, and what comes next

What's improving

No recovery evidence is reported in the available driver assessments.

Still unresolved / key risks

Maintain quarterly dividend at $0.31 per shareDividend per share: $0.31 per share
Gross margin near 6-9%Gross margin: 17.14%
Total revenue growth of at least 6% annuallyRevenue growth: 11.05%

Next proof point

Nov 9, 2026

Look for updated results and guidance against the published targets, plus direct evidence for unresolved drivers.

Review earnings

Bottom line

3 of 4 published conditions remain under pressure or need verification. The next results need to address those conditions.

The dated weekly assessment and its assumptions are available in Read detailed Outlook.

Historical risk context

Observed price history; separate from operating scenarios

Price sensitivity

1.2%Typical daily move · historical

Downside history

-33.0%Maximum drawdown · trailing year

Read detailed Outlook Company context, assumptions & risks

RB Global outlook in detail

The weekly editorial context below is a separate assessment from the dated monitor evidence above. Recovery observations do not automatically change the published thesis. Unverified outside influences are hypotheses, not measured driver evidence.

Updated Oct 24, 2026

What kind of bet this is

This investment represents a durable compounder with a focus on growth through acquisitions and revenue increases. The current thesis is intact, but management's volatility and sector challenges introduce some uncertainty.

What's priced into RB Global

The valuation appears expensive compared to peers, with a slight expectations gap. The market seems to have priced in a justified level of performance, reflecting confidence in RBA's fundamentals despite the premium.

What the fundamentals likely do

Fundamentals are likely to remain strong, as management has shown progress in revenue and growth targets. However, there is a moderate risk of missing expectations, especially given recent trends in the sector.

What RB Global hinges on

The thesis hinges on the performance of sector bellwethers like CTAS, CPRT, and ROL. If these companies continue to perform well, it could support RBA's growth, but any negative shifts could impact RBA's trajectory.