Quanterix Corp. (QTRX)

NASDAQHealth CareMedical - DevicesSnapshot 2026-10-23

$2.86+0.70%

Close 2026-10-23 · 1-day change

Investment OutlookAs of Oct 24, 2026

What could strengthen or challenge Quanterix Corp.’s outlook?

The long-term thesis, the evidence coming in, and the environment around it. Thesis dated Jul 8, 2026.

Higher potential upsideImproving expectations

Next-FY EPS estimate change · 30 days

Comparable estimates unavailable

+10% or more+5%0%−5%−10% or less

A matching fiscal period and sufficient coverage are required.

Higher risk of downsideWeakening expectations

One observable signal. This measures changing earnings expectations, not the probability of a gain or loss.

How this is measured

The calculation requires same-period, same-provider snapshots, positive EPS, at least five analysts and a baseline within three days of the requested lookback.

Measure / period	Management expectations	Analyst expectations
FY 2026 · Q4
Revenue	—	40.19M
EPS	—	-0.375
FY 2026 · Annual
Revenue	—	143.36M
EPS	—	-2.24
Gross margin	41%–45%GAAP 48%–50%non-GAAP	—
FY 2027 · Annual
Revenue	—	157.37M
EPS	—	-1.237

What the Thesis Depends On

Three published thesis conditions, with dated milestones shown separately.

Key Factor	Why It Matters	Current Status	Break Condition	Latest Evidence
Gross margin improves to about 51% in FY26	Gross margin should improve to about 51% by year-end.	Broken	Gross margin falls below 45% in FY26	Gross margin: 38.52% FY2026-Q2; GAAP. Published target: ~51%. Target period is not explicitly aligned with this observation. Source published Aug 10, 202638.515772 percent · calculatedSource reportLast status assessment Oct 24, 2026 Measurement source consolidated · GAAP FY2026-Q2 · Period ending Jun 30, 2026 Source: company_financial_results. Reference: 8d08136d-f844-4e9c-9daa-a3743642840a. Source status: eligible. Compare required operating outcomes Compare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement.
Stable leadership with new CFO and COO in place	Quanterix is improving its leadership with new CFO and COO hires.	Intact	Additional unexpected departures of CFO or COO	0 unexpected departures vs 0 allowed Jason Faessler (CFO) and Anthony Catalano (COO) appointed as external hires; no subsequent departures reported. Context reviewed through Oct 23, 2026Last status assessment Oct 24, 2026Compare required operating outcomes Compare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement.
Revenue reaches about $171.5 million in FY26	Revenue is expected to grow about 19% in 2026 to $171.5 million.	Broken	Revenue falls below $130 million in FY26	Revenue: $32.906M FY2026-Q2; GAAP. Published target: ~$171.5M. Target period is not explicitly aligned with this observation. Source published Aug 10, 202632,906,000 USD · source valueSource reportLast status assessment Oct 24, 2026 Measurement source consolidated · GAAP FY2026-Q2 · Period ending Jun 30, 2026 Source: company_financial_results. Reference: 8d08136d-f844-4e9c-9daa-a3743642840a. Source status: eligible. Compare required operating outcomes Compare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement.

Stored thesis · Jul 8, 2026. Latest Evidence uses source-matched measurements where available, alongside the last thesis-monitor assessment. Source periods and assessment dates are shown separately. A new measurement does not automatically change the published status or verify an older target.

Incoming Evidence

Compare these dated observations with the operating requirements above

Expectations trend

Same fiscal period

FY2027 · fiscal year ending 2027-12-31 · fmp

FY2027 EPS: comparable history unavailable.

FY2027 revenue: comparable history unavailable.

Exact estimates & source dates

One fiscal period and provider throughout. At least five contributors are required for each plotted metric; missing coverage stays a gap. Axes show the observed range. Counts measure coverage, not revisions.

FY2027 estimate observations · fmp
Snapshot	EPS	Revenue	EPS / revenue analysts
2026-07-24	Unavailable	Unavailable	1 / 3
2026-07-25	Unavailable	Unavailable	1 / 3
2026-07-26	Unavailable	Unavailable	1 / 3
2026-07-27	Unavailable	Unavailable	1 / 3
2026-07-28	Unavailable	Unavailable	1 / 3
2026-07-29	Unavailable	Unavailable	1 / 3
2026-07-30	Unavailable	Unavailable	1 / 2
2026-07-31	Unavailable	Unavailable	1 / 3
2026-08-01	Unavailable	Unavailable	1 / 2
2026-08-02	Unavailable	Unavailable	1 / 2
2026-08-03	Unavailable	Unavailable	1 / 2
2026-08-04	Unavailable	Unavailable	1 / 2
2026-08-05	Unavailable	Unavailable	1 / 2
2026-08-06	Unavailable	Unavailable	1 / 2
2026-08-07	Unavailable	Unavailable	1 / 2
2026-08-08	Unavailable	Unavailable	1 / 3
2026-08-09	Unavailable	Unavailable	1 / 2
2026-08-10	Unavailable	Unavailable	1 / 2
2026-08-12	Unavailable	Unavailable	1 / 2
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2026-08-28	Unavailable	Unavailable	1 / 2
2026-08-29	Unavailable	Unavailable	1 / 2
2026-08-30	Unavailable	Unavailable	1 / 2
2026-08-31	Unavailable	Unavailable	1 / 2
2026-09-01	Unavailable	Unavailable	1 / 2
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2026-09-14	Unavailable	Unavailable	1 / 2
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2026-09-16	Unavailable	Unavailable	1 / 2
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2026-09-18	Unavailable	Unavailable	1 / 2
2026-09-19	Unavailable	Unavailable	1 / 2
2026-09-20	Unavailable	Unavailable	1 / 2
2026-09-21	Unavailable	Unavailable	1 / 2
2026-09-22	Unavailable	Unavailable	1 / 2
2026-09-23	Unavailable	Unavailable	1 / 2
2026-09-24	Unavailable	Unavailable	1 / 2
2026-09-25	Unavailable	Unavailable	1 / 2
2026-09-26	Unavailable	Unavailable	1 / 2
2026-09-27	Unavailable	Unavailable	1 / 2
2026-09-28	Unavailable	Unavailable	1 / 2
2026-09-29	Unavailable	Unavailable	1 / 2
2026-09-30	Unavailable	Unavailable	1 / 2
2026-10-01	Unavailable	Unavailable	1 / 2
2026-10-02	Unavailable	Unavailable	1 / 2
2026-10-03	Unavailable	Unavailable	1 / 2
2026-10-04	Unavailable	Unavailable	1 / 2
2026-10-05	Unavailable	Unavailable	1 / 2
2026-10-06	Unavailable	Unavailable	1 / 2
2026-10-07	Unavailable	Unavailable	1 / 2
2026-10-08	Unavailable	Unavailable	1 / 2
2026-10-09	Unavailable	Unavailable	1 / 2
2026-10-10	Unavailable	Unavailable	1 / 2
2026-10-11	Unavailable	Unavailable	1 / 2
2026-10-12	Unavailable	Unavailable	1 / 2
2026-10-13	Unavailable	Unavailable	1 / 2
2026-10-14	Unavailable	Unavailable	1 / 2
2026-10-15	Unavailable	Unavailable	1 / 2
2026-10-16	Unavailable	Unavailable	1 / 2
2026-10-17	Unavailable	Unavailable	1 / 2
2026-10-18	Unavailable	Unavailable	1 / 2
2026-10-19	Unavailable	Unavailable	1 / 2
2026-10-20	Unavailable	Unavailable	1 / 2
2026-10-21	Unavailable	Unavailable	1 / 2
2026-10-22	Unavailable	Unavailable	1 / 2
2026-10-23	Unavailable	Unavailable	1 / 2
2026-10-24	Unavailable	Unavailable	1 / 2

Revenue and EPS estimates track expectations. They are not delivered results or like-for-like proof of a required annual path.

Compare required revenue and earnings

Analyst view

Monthly observations

Buy / Strong BuyHoldSell / Strong Sell

Exact monthly counts

Monthly rating snapshots · fmp. Missing snapshots are not zero.
Date	Buy*	Hold	Sell*
2026-05-01	0	3	0
2026-06-01	0	3	0
2026-07-01	0	3	0
2026-08-01	0	3	0
2026-09-01	0	3	0
2026-10-01	0	3	0

*Buy includes Strong Buy; Sell includes Strong Sell. Monthly counts describe the analyst mix, not the firms behind each recent action.

Latest: 0 Buy / Strong Buy · 3 Hold · 0 Sell / Strong Sell

0 upgrades0 downgrades1 maintains

Recent actions · Sep 25–Oct 24 · 1 recorded

Price-target changes

30 days

Individual price-target observations are unavailable.

0 raises · 0 cuts · 0 unchanged · 0 without a comparable prior

How this is measured

Sep 25, 2026–Oct 24, 2026. Each firm's latest positive target is paired only with its immediately prior positive target from the same provider, at most 180 days earlier. Unmatched observations have one dot; conflicting observations are not compared.

Outlook in Brief

The evidence, the remaining questions, and what comes next

What's improving

No recovery evidence is reported in the available driver assessments.

Still unresolved / key risks

Gross margin improves to about 51% in FY26Published status: Broken
Revenue reaches about $171.5 million in FY26Published status: Broken

Next proof point

Nov 9, 2026

Look for updated results and guidance against the published targets, plus direct evidence for unresolved drivers.

Review earnings

Bottom line

2 of 3 published conditions remain under pressure or need verification. The next results need to address those conditions.

The dated weekly assessment and its assumptions are available in Read detailed Outlook.

Historical risk context

Observed price history; separate from operating scenarios

Price sensitivity

3.3%Typical daily move · historical

Downside history

-70.0%Maximum drawdown · trailing year

Read detailed Outlook Company context, assumptions & risks

Quanterix Corp. outlook in detail

The weekly editorial context below is a separate assessment from the dated monitor evidence above. Recovery observations do not automatically change the published thesis. Unverified outside influences are hypotheses, not measured driver evidence.

Updated Oct 24, 2026

What kind of bet this is

This is a high-risk growth business with a turnaround-like execution challenge, not a proven profitable compounder. Its long-term thesis is on watch: revenue has grown, but performance is weak and the overall signal recently shifted from mildly favorable to mixed.

What's priced into Quanterix Corp.

The valuation model labels QTRX cheap versus peers, while also showing a negative expectations gap; this points to cautious market expectations. Model confidence is low, and the snapshot gives no clear evidence that current expectations fully account for the execution and cash-flow risks.

What the fundamentals likely do

Near term, revenue growth and management’s commercial reorganization support progress, but recent results were below expectations and gross margin fell from 50.9% to 47.9% between the first and second quarters of 2026. Management lowered its 2026 gross-margin and year-end cash forecasts, so reaching cash-flow breakeven in 2027 remains uncertain despite cash rising to $47.5 million in the second quarter.

What Quanterix Corp. hinges on

The favorable case depends on improved commercial execution, a recovery in guidance, and progress toward 2027 cash-flow breakeven. The unfavorable case depends on further margin or cash pressure, or a weakening jobs backdrop that raises recession concerns; continued strength from healthcare sector bellwethers could help support the sector backdrop.