Quantum-Si, Inc. (QSI)

NASDAQHealth CareMedical - DevicesSnapshot 2026-10-23

$1.40+21.74%

Close 2026-10-23 · 1-day change

Investment OutlookAs of Oct 24, 2026

What could strengthen or challenge Quantum-Si, Inc.’s outlook?

The long-term thesis, the evidence coming in, and the environment around it. Thesis dated Jul 8, 2026.

Higher potential upsideImproving expectations

Next-FY EPS estimate change · 30 days

Comparable estimates unavailable

+10% or more+5%0%−5%−10% or less

A matching fiscal period and sufficient coverage are required.

Higher risk of downsideWeakening expectations

One observable signal. This measures changing earnings expectations, not the probability of a gain or loss.

How this is measured

The calculation requires same-period, same-provider snapshots, positive EPS, at least five analysts and a baseline within three days of the requested lookback.

Measure / period	Management expectations	Analyst expectations
FY 2026 · Q4
Revenue	—	256,600
EPS	—	-0.114
FY 2026 · Annual
Revenue	About $1M	1.15M
EPS	—	-0.43
Operating expenses	$98Mnon-GAAP	—
FY 2027 · Annual
Revenue	—	5.96M
EPS	—	-0.356

What the Thesis Depends On

Three published thesis conditions, with dated milestones shown separately.

Key Factor	Why It Matters	Current Status	Break Condition	Latest Evidence
Limit total cash usage to $93 million in 2026	It plans to limit operating expenses to $98 million and cash usage to $93 million.	Broken	cash usage exceeds $93 million in FY26	Direct metric needs a verified mapping The published measure or accounting basis is not supported by an exact source binding. Source date unavailableLast status assessment Oct 24, 2026Compare required operating outcomes Compare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement.
Limit adjusted operating expenses to $98 million in 2026	It plans to limit operating expenses to $98 million and cash usage to $93 million.	Intact	operating expenses exceed $98 million in FY26	Direct metric needs a verified mapping The published measure or accounting basis is not supported by an exact source binding. Source date unavailableLast status assessment Oct 24, 2026Compare required operating outcomes Compare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement. Management context Stated as a priority in 3 quarters including 2026-Q1 and 2026-Q2. Adjusted total operating expenses guidance remains at $98.0 million or less for 2026. Actual adjusted operating expenses were $21.4 million in 2026-Q1, showing disciplined cost control. The trajectory is on track to meet the annual expense limit. Delivery assessment Oct 24, 2026
Achieve at least $1 million revenue in 2026	A primary condition in Quantum-Si, Inc.'s published investment case. The stated target is >= $1 million.	Intact	revenue falls below $1 million in FY26	Revenue: $344,000 FY2026-Q2; GAAP. Published target: >= $1 million. Target period is not explicitly aligned with this observation. Source published Aug 13, 2026344,000 USD · source valueSource reportLast status assessment Oct 24, 2026 Measurement source consolidated · GAAP FY2026-Q2 · Period ending Jun 30, 2026 Source: company_financial_results. Reference: 05b89e1f-98a6-4b82-bdd2-9d264053a3e4. Source status: eligible. Compare required operating outcomes Compare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement. Management context Stated as a priority in 3 quarters including 2026-Q1 and 2026-Q2. The company reiterated revenue guidance of approximately $1.0 million for 2026. Actual revenue declined from $842,000 in 2025-Q1 to $258,000 in 2026-Q1 due to strategic actions ahead of Proteus launch. The trajectory reflects a transition year with deliberate revenue tradeoffs. Delivery assessment Oct 24, 2026

Stored thesis · Jul 8, 2026. Latest Evidence uses source-matched measurements where available, alongside the last thesis-monitor assessment. Source periods and assessment dates are shown separately. A new measurement does not automatically change the published status or verify an older target.

Incoming Evidence

Compare these dated observations with the operating requirements above

Expectations trend

Same fiscal period

FY2027 · fiscal year ending 2027-12-31 · fmp

FY2027 EPS: comparable history unavailable.

FY2027 revenue: comparable history unavailable.

Exact estimates & source dates

One fiscal period and provider throughout. At least five contributors are required for each plotted metric; missing coverage stays a gap. Axes show the observed range. Counts measure coverage, not revisions.

FY2027 estimate observations · fmp
Snapshot	EPS	Revenue	EPS / revenue analysts
2026-07-24	Unavailable	Unavailable	1 / 3
2026-07-25	Unavailable	Unavailable	1 / 3
2026-07-26	Unavailable	Unavailable	1 / 3
2026-07-27	Unavailable	Unavailable	1 / 3
2026-07-28	Unavailable	Unavailable	1 / 3
2026-07-29	Unavailable	Unavailable	1 / 3
2026-07-30	Unavailable	Unavailable	1 / 2
2026-07-31	Unavailable	Unavailable	1 / 2
2026-08-01	Unavailable	Unavailable	1 / 2
2026-08-02	Unavailable	Unavailable	1 / 2
2026-08-03	Unavailable	Unavailable	1 / 2
2026-08-04	Unavailable	Unavailable	1 / 3
2026-08-05	Unavailable	Unavailable	1 / 2
2026-08-06	Unavailable	Unavailable	1 / 2
2026-08-07	Unavailable	Unavailable	1 / 2
2026-08-08	Unavailable	Unavailable	1 / 3
2026-08-09	Unavailable	Unavailable	1 / 3
2026-08-10	Unavailable	Unavailable	1 / 2
2026-08-12	Unavailable	Unavailable	1 / 3
2026-08-13	Unavailable	Unavailable	1 / 2
2026-08-14	Unavailable	Unavailable	1 / 2
2026-08-15	Unavailable	Unavailable	1 / 2
2026-08-16	Unavailable	Unavailable	1 / 2
2026-08-17	Unavailable	Unavailable	1 / 2
2026-08-18	Unavailable	Unavailable	1 / 2
2026-08-19	Unavailable	Unavailable	1 / 2
2026-08-20	Unavailable	Unavailable	1 / 2
2026-08-21	Unavailable	Unavailable	1 / 2
2026-08-22	Unavailable	Unavailable	1 / 2
2026-08-23	Unavailable	Unavailable	1 / 2
2026-08-24	Unavailable	Unavailable	1 / 2
2026-08-25	Unavailable	Unavailable	1 / 2
2026-08-26	Unavailable	Unavailable	1 / 2
2026-08-27	Unavailable	Unavailable	1 / 2
2026-08-28	Unavailable	Unavailable	1 / 2
2026-08-29	Unavailable	Unavailable	1 / 2
2026-08-30	Unavailable	Unavailable	1 / 2
2026-08-31	Unavailable	Unavailable	1 / 2
2026-09-01	Unavailable	Unavailable	1 / 2
2026-09-02	Unavailable	Unavailable	1 / 2
2026-09-03	Unavailable	Unavailable	1 / 2
2026-09-04	Unavailable	Unavailable	1 / 2
2026-09-05	Unavailable	Unavailable	1 / 2
2026-09-06	Unavailable	Unavailable	1 / 2
2026-09-07	Unavailable	Unavailable	1 / 2
2026-09-08	Unavailable	Unavailable	1 / 2
2026-09-09	Unavailable	Unavailable	1 / 2
2026-09-10	Unavailable	Unavailable	1 / 2
2026-09-11	Unavailable	Unavailable	1 / 2
2026-09-12	Unavailable	Unavailable	1 / 2
2026-09-13	Unavailable	Unavailable	1 / 2
2026-09-14	Unavailable	Unavailable	1 / 2
2026-09-15	Unavailable	Unavailable	1 / 2
2026-09-16	Unavailable	Unavailable	1 / 2
2026-09-17	Unavailable	Unavailable	1 / 2
2026-09-18	Unavailable	Unavailable	1 / 2
2026-09-19	Unavailable	Unavailable	1 / 2
2026-09-20	Unavailable	Unavailable	1 / 2
2026-09-21	Unavailable	Unavailable	1 / 2
2026-09-22	Unavailable	Unavailable	1 / 2
2026-09-23	Unavailable	Unavailable	1 / 2
2026-09-24	Unavailable	Unavailable	1 / 2
2026-09-25	Unavailable	Unavailable	1 / 2
2026-09-26	Unavailable	Unavailable	1 / 2
2026-09-27	Unavailable	Unavailable	1 / 2
2026-09-28	Unavailable	Unavailable	1 / 2
2026-09-29	Unavailable	Unavailable	1 / 2
2026-09-30	Unavailable	Unavailable	1 / 2
2026-10-01	Unavailable	Unavailable	1 / 2
2026-10-02	Unavailable	Unavailable	1 / 2
2026-10-03	Unavailable	Unavailable	1 / 2
2026-10-04	Unavailable	Unavailable	1 / 2
2026-10-05	Unavailable	Unavailable	1 / 2
2026-10-06	Unavailable	Unavailable	1 / 2
2026-10-07	Unavailable	Unavailable	1 / 2
2026-10-08	Unavailable	Unavailable	1 / 2
2026-10-09	Unavailable	Unavailable	1 / 2
2026-10-10	Unavailable	Unavailable	1 / 2
2026-10-11	Unavailable	Unavailable	1 / 2
2026-10-12	Unavailable	Unavailable	1 / 2
2026-10-13	Unavailable	Unavailable	1 / 2
2026-10-14	Unavailable	Unavailable	1 / 2
2026-10-15	Unavailable	Unavailable	1 / 2
2026-10-16	Unavailable	Unavailable	1 / 2
2026-10-17	Unavailable	Unavailable	1 / 2
2026-10-18	Unavailable	Unavailable	1 / 2
2026-10-19	Unavailable	Unavailable	1 / 2
2026-10-20	Unavailable	Unavailable	1 / 2
2026-10-21	Unavailable	Unavailable	1 / 2
2026-10-22	Unavailable	Unavailable	1 / 2
2026-10-23	Unavailable	Unavailable	1 / 2
2026-10-24	Unavailable	Unavailable	1 / 2

Revenue and EPS estimates track expectations. They are not delivered results or like-for-like proof of a required annual path.

Compare required revenue and earnings

Analyst view

Monthly observations

Buy / Strong BuyHoldSell / Strong Sell

Exact monthly counts

Monthly rating snapshots · fmp. Missing snapshots are not zero.
Date	Buy*	Hold
2026-05-01	2	1
2026-06-01	2	1
2026-07-01	2	1
2026-08-01	2	1
2026-09-01	2	1
2026-10-01	2	1

*Buy includes Strong Buy; Sell includes Strong Sell. Monthly counts describe the analyst mix, not the firms behind each recent action.

Latest: 2 Buy / Strong Buy · 1 Hold · 0 Sell / Strong Sell

0 upgrades0 downgrades1 maintains

Recent actions · Sep 25–Oct 24 · 1 recorded

Price-target changes

30 days

○ Previous · ● Latest · common dollar scale

H.C. WainwrightOct 9

$4.00New observation · no comparable prior

$0$2.20$4.40

0 raises · 0 cuts · 0 unchanged · 1 without a comparable prior

How this is measured

Sep 25, 2026–Oct 24, 2026. Each firm's latest positive target is paired only with its immediately prior positive target from the same provider, at most 180 days earlier. Unmatched observations have one dot; conflicting observations are not compared.

Outlook in Brief

The evidence, the remaining questions, and what comes next

What's improving

No recovery evidence is reported in the available driver assessments.

Still unresolved / key risks

Limit total cash usage to $93 million in 2026Published status: Broken
Limit adjusted operating expenses to $98 million in 2026Direct metric needs a verified mapping
Achieve at least $1 million revenue in 2026Revenue: $344,000

Next proof point

Nov 5, 2026

Look for updated results and guidance against the published targets, plus direct evidence for unresolved drivers.

Review earnings

Bottom line

3 of 3 published conditions remain under pressure or need verification. The next results need to address those conditions.

The dated weekly assessment and its assumptions are available in Read detailed Outlook.

Historical risk context

Observed price history; separate from operating scenarios

Price sensitivity

3.4%Typical daily move · historical

Downside history

-70.0%Maximum drawdown · trailing year

Read detailed Outlook Company context, assumptions & risks

Quantum-Si, Inc. outlook in detail

The weekly editorial context below is a separate assessment from the dated monitor evidence above. Recovery observations do not automatically change the published thesis. Unverified outside influences are hypotheses, not measured driver evidence.

Updated Oct 24, 2026

What kind of bet this is

This is a speculative growth business, not a proven earnings compounder: it is loss-making, and current revenue is limited during the transition to Proteus. The long-term thesis is intact, with management’s launch and cost priorities on track, but overall risk is high.

What's priced into Quantum-Si, Inc.

QSI trades at a 58% premium to peers, and the valuation model has low confidence. The evidence describes the valuation as unjustified, with an expectations gap tied to the potential value of future growth, so the market appears to give meaningful weight to Proteus while the business has not yet shown substantial revenue.

What the fundamentals likely do

Near term, revenue is expected to remain limited during the transition: first-quarter revenue fell from $842,000 to $258,000 year over year, while 2026 guidance remains about $1 million. Management says Proteus sequencing is progressing, with 19 amino acids detected and a goal of detecting all 20 by year-end 2026, supporting a planned Q2 2027 commercial launch; adjusted operating expenses were $21.4 million in the first quarter against a $98 million annual limit. Risk has risen to high, and a guidance cut would be a meaningful setback, despite reaffirmed guidance and an August earnings beat.

What Quantum-Si, Inc. hinges on

The multi-year thesis depends on completing Proteus development and reaching the planned Q2 2027 launch while maintaining cost discipline. Near term, a guidance cut or further labor-market weakening could pressure the outlook, while continued strong results and higher guidance from healthcare peers could support sector momentum. The available evidence gives limited detail on how Proteus revenue may develop after launch.