QuantumScape Corp (QS)

NASDAQConsumer DiscretionaryAuto - PartsSnapshot 2026-10-23

$4.03-2.89%

Close 2026-10-23 · 1-day change

Investment OutlookAs of Oct 24, 2026

What could strengthen or challenge QuantumScape Corp’s outlook?

The long-term thesis, the evidence coming in, and the environment around it. Thesis dated Jul 8, 2026.

Higher potential upsideImproving expectations

Next-FY EPS estimate change · 30 days

Comparable estimates unavailable

+10% or more+5%0%−5%−10% or less

A matching fiscal period and sufficient coverage are required.

Higher risk of downsideWeakening expectations

One observable signal. This measures changing earnings expectations, not the probability of a gain or loss.

How this is measured

The calculation requires same-period, same-provider snapshots, positive EPS, at least five analysts and a baseline within three days of the requested lookback.

Measure / period	Management expectations	Analyst expectations
Quarter ending 2026-12-30
Revenue	—	1M
EPS	—	-0.168
Quarter ending 2027-03-31
Revenue	—	0
EPS	—	-0.16
Annual ending 2026-12-31
Revenue	—	55,962
EPS	—	-0.638
Annual ending 2027-12-31
Revenue	—	303,713
EPS	—	-0.627

Management figures unavailable.

What the Thesis Depends On

Three published thesis conditions, with dated milestones shown separately.

Key Factor	Why It Matters	Current Status	Break Condition	Latest Evidence
capital spending stays within $40-60 million in 2026	It plans to spend $40-60 million on capital in 2026.	Broken	capital spending exceeds $60 million or falls below $40 million in FY26	Capital expenditures: $4.618M FY2026-Q2; GAAP. Published target: between $40 million and $60 million. Target period is not explicitly aligned with this observation. Source published Jul 24, 20264,618,000 USD · source valueSource reportLast status assessment Oct 24, 2026 Measurement source consolidated · GAAP FY2026-Q2 · Period ending Jun 30, 2026 Source: stock_quarterly_financials_fmp. Reference: 2026-Q2. Source status: unverified. Compare required operating outcomes Compare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement.
EPS loss narrows toward -$0.7 or better in 2026	A primary condition in QuantumScape Corp's published investment case. The stated target is EPS >= -$0.7.	Improving	EPS loss worsens beyond -$0.7 in FY26	Direct metric needs a verified mapping The published measure or accounting basis is not supported by an exact source binding. Source date unavailableLast status assessment Oct 24, 2026Compare required operating outcomes Compare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement.
start generating revenue by 2027 with at least $35.7 million	A supporting condition in QuantumScape Corp's published investment case. The stated target is revenue >= $35.7 million.	Intact	revenue fails to reach $35 million in FY27	Revenue: $0 FY2026-Q2; GAAP. Published target: revenue >= $35.7 million. Target period is not explicitly aligned with this observation. Source published Jul 24, 20260 USD · source valueSource reportLast status assessment Oct 24, 2026 Measurement source consolidated · GAAP FY2026-Q2 · Period ending Jun 30, 2026 Source: stock_quarterly_financials_fmp. Reference: 2026-Q2. Source status: unverified. Compare required operating outcomes Compare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement.

Stored thesis · Jul 8, 2026. Latest Evidence uses source-matched measurements where available, alongside the last thesis-monitor assessment. Source periods and assessment dates are shown separately. A new measurement does not automatically change the published status or verify an older target.

Incoming Evidence

Compare these dated observations with the operating requirements above

Expectations trend

Same fiscal period

FY2027 · fiscal year ending 2027-12-31 · fmp

FY2027 EPS$-0.63

$-0.68 → $-0.63 · observed estimates

FY2027 revenue: comparable history unavailable.

Exact estimates & source dates

One fiscal period and provider throughout. At least five contributors are required for each plotted metric; missing coverage stays a gap. Axes show the observed range. Counts measure coverage, not revisions.

FY2027 estimate observations · fmp
Snapshot	EPS	Revenue	EPS / revenue analysts
2026-07-24	$-0.68	Unavailable	6 / 3
2026-07-25	$-0.66	Unavailable	5 / 3
2026-07-26	$-0.66	Unavailable	5 / 3
2026-07-27	$-0.66	Unavailable	5 / 2
2026-07-28	$-0.66	Unavailable	5 / 2
2026-07-29	$-0.68	Unavailable	6 / 1
2026-07-30	$-0.65	Unavailable	5 / 1
2026-07-31	$-0.68	Unavailable	6 / 1
2026-08-01	$-0.65	Unavailable	5 / 1
2026-08-02	$-0.68	Unavailable	6 / 1
2026-08-03	$-0.65	Unavailable	5 / 1
2026-08-04	$-0.68	Unavailable	6 / 1
2026-08-05	$-0.65	Unavailable	5 / 1
2026-08-06	$-0.65	Unavailable	5 / 1
2026-08-07	$-0.65	Unavailable	5 / 1
2026-08-08	$-0.68	Unavailable	6 / 1
2026-08-09	$-0.68	Unavailable	6 / 1
2026-08-10	$-0.65	Unavailable	5 / 1
2026-08-12	$-0.65	Unavailable	5 / 1
2026-08-13	$-0.65	Unavailable	5 / 1
2026-08-14	$-0.65	Unavailable	5 / 1
2026-08-15	$-0.65	Unavailable	5 / 1
2026-08-16	$-0.65	Unavailable	5 / 1
2026-08-17	$-0.65	Unavailable	5 / 1
2026-08-18	$-0.65	Unavailable	5 / 1
2026-08-19	$-0.65	Unavailable	5 / 1
2026-08-20	$-0.65	Unavailable	5 / 1
2026-08-21	$-0.65	Unavailable	5 / 1
2026-08-22	$-0.65	Unavailable	5 / 1
2026-08-23	$-0.65	Unavailable	5 / 1
2026-08-24	$-0.65	Unavailable	5 / 1
2026-08-25	$-0.65	Unavailable	5 / 1
2026-08-26	$-0.65	Unavailable	5 / 1
2026-08-27	$-0.65	Unavailable	5 / 1
2026-08-28	$-0.65	Unavailable	5 / 1
2026-08-29	$-0.65	Unavailable	5 / 2
2026-08-30	$-0.65	Unavailable	5 / 2
2026-08-31	$-0.65	Unavailable	5 / 3
2026-09-01	$-0.65	Unavailable	5 / 3
2026-09-02	$-0.65	Unavailable	5 / 3
2026-09-03	$-0.65	Unavailable	5 / 3
2026-09-04	$-0.65	Unavailable	5 / 3
2026-09-05	$-0.65	Unavailable	5 / 3
2026-09-06	$-0.65	Unavailable	5 / 3
2026-09-07	$-0.65	Unavailable	5 / 3
2026-09-08	$-0.65	Unavailable	5 / 3
2026-09-09	$-0.65	Unavailable	5 / 3
2026-09-10	$-0.65	Unavailable	5 / 3
2026-09-11	$-0.65	Unavailable	5 / 3
2026-09-12	$-0.65	Unavailable	5 / 3
2026-09-13	$-0.65	Unavailable	5 / 3
2026-09-14	$-0.65	Unavailable	5 / 3
2026-09-15	$-0.65	Unavailable	5 / 3
2026-09-16	$-0.65	Unavailable	5 / 3
2026-09-17	$-0.65	Unavailable	5 / 3
2026-09-18	$-0.65	Unavailable	5 / 3
2026-09-19	$-0.65	Unavailable	5 / 3
2026-09-20	$-0.65	Unavailable	5 / 3
2026-09-21	$-0.65	Unavailable	5 / 3
2026-09-22	$-0.65	Unavailable	5 / 3
2026-09-23	$-0.65	Unavailable	5 / 3
2026-09-24	$-0.65	Unavailable	5 / 3
2026-09-25	$-0.65	Unavailable	5 / 3
2026-09-26	$-0.65	Unavailable	5 / 3
2026-09-27	$-0.65	Unavailable	5 / 3
2026-09-28	$-0.65	Unavailable	5 / 3
2026-09-29	$-0.65	Unavailable	5 / 3
2026-09-30	$-0.65	Unavailable	5 / 3
2026-10-01	$-0.65	Unavailable	5 / 3
2026-10-02	$-0.65	Unavailable	5 / 3
2026-10-03	$-0.65	Unavailable	5 / 3
2026-10-04	$-0.65	Unavailable	5 / 3
2026-10-05	$-0.65	Unavailable	5 / 3
2026-10-06	$-0.65	Unavailable	5 / 3
2026-10-07	$-0.65	Unavailable	5 / 3
2026-10-08	$-0.65	Unavailable	5 / 3
2026-10-09	$-0.65	Unavailable	5 / 3
2026-10-10	$-0.65	Unavailable	5 / 3
2026-10-11	$-0.65	Unavailable	5 / 3
2026-10-12	$-0.65	Unavailable	5 / 3
2026-10-13	$-0.65	Unavailable	5 / 3
2026-10-14	$-0.65	Unavailable	5 / 3
2026-10-15	$-0.65	Unavailable	5 / 3
2026-10-16	$-0.65	Unavailable	5 / 3
2026-10-17	$-0.65	Unavailable	5 / 3
2026-10-18	$-0.65	Unavailable	5 / 3
2026-10-19	$-0.65	Unavailable	5 / 3
2026-10-20	$-0.65	Unavailable	5 / 3
2026-10-21	$-0.65	Unavailable	5 / 3
2026-10-22	$-0.63	Unavailable	5 / 3
2026-10-23	$-0.63	Unavailable	5 / 4
2026-10-24	$-0.63	Unavailable	5 / 3

Revenue and EPS estimates track expectations. They are not delivered results or like-for-like proof of a required annual path.

Compare required revenue and earnings

Analyst view

Monthly observations

Buy / Strong BuyHoldSell / Strong Sell

Exact monthly counts

Monthly rating snapshots · fmp. Missing snapshots are not zero.
Date	Hold	Sell*
2026-05-01	7	2
2026-06-01	7	2
2026-07-01	7	2
2026-08-01	7	2
2026-09-01	7	2
2026-10-01	7	2

*Buy includes Strong Buy; Sell includes Strong Sell. Monthly counts describe the analyst mix, not the firms behind each recent action.

Latest: 0 Buy / Strong Buy · 7 Hold · 2 Sell / Strong Sell

0 upgrades0 downgrades3 maintains

Recent actions · Sep 25–Oct 24 · 3 recorded

Price-target changes

30 days

○ Previous · ● Latest · common dollar scale

Robert W. BairdOct 22

$6.00New observation · no comparable prior

Morgan StanleyOct 15

$4.50New observation · no comparable prior

$0$3.30$6.60

0 raises · 0 cuts · 0 unchanged · 2 without a comparable prior

How this is measured

Sep 25, 2026–Oct 24, 2026. Each firm's latest positive target is paired only with its immediately prior positive target from the same provider, at most 180 days earlier. Unmatched observations have one dot; conflicting observations are not compared.

Outlook in Brief

The evidence, the remaining questions, and what comes next

What's improving

No recovery evidence is reported in the available driver assessments.

Still unresolved / key risks

capital spending stays within $40-60 million in 2026Published status: Broken
EPS loss narrows toward -$0.7 or better in 2026Direct metric needs a verified mapping
start generating revenue by 2027 with at least $35.7 millionRevenue: $0

Next proof point

Next earnings date unavailable

Look for updated results and guidance against the published targets, plus direct evidence for unresolved drivers.

Review earnings

Bottom line

3 of 3 published conditions remain under pressure or need verification. The next results need to address those conditions.

The dated weekly assessment and its assumptions are available in Read detailed Outlook.

Historical risk context

Observed price history; separate from operating scenarios

Price sensitivity

2.4%Typical daily move · historical

Downside history

-78.8%Maximum drawdown · trailing year

Read detailed Outlook Company context, assumptions & risks

QuantumScape Corp outlook in detail

The weekly editorial context below is a separate assessment from the dated monitor evidence above. Recovery observations do not automatically change the published thesis. Unverified outside influences are hypotheses, not measured driver evidence.

Updated Oct 24, 2026

What kind of bet this is

This is speculative growth: the business is trying to scale production and turn customer agreements into meaningful commercial activity, but it remains loss-making. The thesis is on watch, and confidence is low despite recent positive company momentum.

What's priced into QuantumScape Corp

The snapshot provides no valuation measure or direct evidence of what market expectations already assume, so valuation cannot be judged against peers. The main expectations gap is whether production and customer milestones can become material revenue while losses persist.

What the fundamentals likely do

Near term, reported operating expenses were lower year over year, the Eagle Line was fully operational, and QS reported first Honda billings and a new automotive agreement. It also launched QS PowerBlock and reported first QSAS customer billings, but the supplied evidence gives no revenue figures for these activities. Recent financial performance is still described as weak, and the prior guidance reduction makes execution a key risk despite recent earnings-beat headlines.

What QuantumScape Corp hinges on

The multi-year thesis depends on QS demonstrating scalable production and converting early customer milestones into sustained commercial activity. Near term, a guidance reversal would be a positive signal; weaker results or lower guidance from sector bellwethers could remove a supportive sector backdrop.