Qualys (QLYS)

NASDAQInformation TechnologySoftware - InfrastructureSnapshot 2026-10-23

$216.70+4.08%

Close 2026-10-23 · 1-day change

Investment OutlookAs of Oct 24, 2026

What could strengthen or challenge Qualys’s outlook?

The long-term thesis, the evidence coming in, and the environment around it. Thesis dated Jul 8, 2026.

Higher potential upsideImproving expectations

Next-FY EPS estimate change · 30 days

-0.0%

+10% or more+5%0%−5%−10% or less

8.47 → 8.47 EPS · FY ending Dec 31, 2027 · 14 analysts

Higher risk of downsideWeakening expectations

One observable signal. This measures changing earnings expectations, not the probability of a gain or loss.

How this is measured

Change in the same fiscal period’s mean EPS estimate from Sep 24, 2026 to Oct 24, 2026: (new ÷ prior − 1). Contributor count changed from 14 to 14; this is not the number of analysts revising. Source: FMP consensus snapshots. The ±10% axis is a display range.

Measure / period	Management expectations	Analyst expectations
FY 2026 · Q3
Revenue	$185.5M–$187.5M	—
FY 2026 · Q4
Revenue	—	190.9M
EPS	—	1.953
FY 2026 · Annual
Revenue	$732M–$738M	735.34M
EPS	$5.76–$5.9GAAP $7.74–$7.88non-GAAP	7.833
FY 2027 · Annual
Revenue	—	795.97M
EPS	—	8.471

What the Thesis Depends On

4 published thesis conditions, with dated milestones shown separately.

Key Factor	Why It Matters	Current Status	Break Condition	Latest Evidence
EPS meets or exceeds $5.5 for FY26	A primary condition in Qualys's published investment case. The stated target is >=5.5 USD per share.	Broken	EPS guidance falls below $5.3 for FY26	Diluted EPS: $1.50 per share FY2026-Q2; GAAP. Published target: >=5.5 USD per share. Target period is not explicitly aligned with this observation. Source published Aug 4, 20261.5 USD/share · source valueSource reportLast status assessment Oct 24, 2026 Measurement source consolidated · GAAP FY2026-Q2 · Period ending Jun 30, 2026 Source: company_financial_results. Reference: 6953370d-6d89-45fa-bf20-ad250c7de267. Source status: eligible. Compare required operating outcomes Compare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement.
Net income grows to at least $50.6M	A supporting condition in Qualys's published investment case. The stated target is >=50.6M USD.	Intact	Net income falls below $48M in FY26-Q1	Net income: $52.405M FY2026-Q2; GAAP. Published target: >=50.6M USD. Target period is not explicitly aligned with this observation. Source published Aug 4, 202652,405,000 USD · source valueSource reportLast status assessment Oct 24, 2026 Measurement source consolidated · GAAP FY2026-Q2 · Period ending Jun 30, 2026 Source: company_financial_results. Reference: 6953370d-6d89-45fa-bf20-ad250c7de267. Source status: eligible. Compare required operating outcomes Compare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement. Management context Stated as a priority in 4 of last 4 quarters. GAAP net income rose from $47.3 million in 2025-Q2 to $52.4 million in 2026-Q2 (+11%), with EPS increasing from $1.29 to $1.50. Management consistently emphasizes net income and EPS growth, and the financials show delivering progress. Delivery assessment Oct 24, 2026
Operating income increases to at least $60.9M	Profit margins improve with operating income rising from $51.8M to $60.9M in one year.	Broken	Operating income falls below $55M in FY26-Q1	Operating income: $61.902M FY2026-Q2; GAAP. Published target: >=60.9M USD. Target period is not explicitly aligned with this observation. Source published Aug 4, 202661,902,000 USD · source valueSource reportLast status assessment Oct 24, 2026 Measurement source consolidated · GAAP FY2026-Q2 · Period ending Jun 30, 2026 Source: company_financial_results. Reference: 6953370d-6d89-45fa-bf20-ad250c7de267. Source status: eligible. Compare required operating outcomes Compare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement. Management context Stated as a priority in 4 of last 4 quarters. GAAP operating income grew from $51.4 million in 2025-Q2 to $61.9 million in 2026-Q2, a 20% increase year-over-year. Management consistently highlights profitability improvements, and the financials show delivering progress on operating income enhancement. Delivery assessment Oct 24, 2026
Revenue grows at least 8.8% YoY	A primary condition in Qualys's published investment case. The stated target is >=8.8% YoY.	Broken	YoY revenue growth falls below 7% in FY26	Revenue: $182.175M FY2026-Q2; GAAP. Published target: >=8.8% YoY. Target and observation units differ. Source published Aug 4, 2026182,175,000 USD · source valueSource reportLast status assessment Oct 24, 2026 Measurement source consolidated · GAAP FY2026-Q2 · Period ending Jun 30, 2026 Source: company_financial_results. Reference: 6953370d-6d89-45fa-bf20-ad250c7de267. Source status: eligible. Compare required operating outcomes Compare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement. Management context Stated as a priority in 4 of last 4 quarters. Revenue grew from $159.2 million in 2024-Q4 to $182.2 million in 2026-Q2, representing consistent year-over-year growth of about 10-11%. Management has reiterated confidence in reaccelerating long-term growth, and the trajectory is delivering solid revenue increases. Delivery assessment Oct 24, 2026

Stored thesis · Jul 8, 2026. Latest Evidence uses source-matched measurements where available, alongside the last thesis-monitor assessment. Source periods and assessment dates are shown separately. A new measurement does not automatically change the published status or verify an older target.

Incoming Evidence

Compare these dated observations with the operating requirements above

Expectations trend

Same fiscal period

FY2027 · fiscal year ending 2027-12-31 · fmp

FY2027 EPS$8.47

$8.27 → $8.47 · observed estimates

FY2027 revenue$0.80B

$0.78B → $0.80B · observed estimates

Exact estimates & source dates

One fiscal period and provider throughout. At least five contributors are required for each plotted metric; missing coverage stays a gap. Axes show the observed range. Counts measure coverage, not revisions.

FY2027 estimate observations · fmp
Snapshot	EPS	Revenue	EPS / revenue analysts
2026-07-24	$8.27	$775,711,200	22 / 22
2026-07-25	$8.27	$775,711,200	22 / 22
2026-07-26	$8.27	$775,711,200	22 / 22
2026-07-27	$8.27	$775,711,200	22 / 22
2026-07-28	$8.27	$775,711,200	22 / 22
2026-07-29	$8.27	$775,711,200	22 / 22
2026-07-30	$8.31	$775,259,010	14 / 17
2026-07-31	$8.27	$775,711,200	22 / 22
2026-08-01	$8.31	$775,259,010	14 / 17
2026-08-02	$8.27	$775,711,200	22 / 22
2026-08-03	$8.27	$775,711,200	22 / 22
2026-08-04	$8.27	$775,711,200	22 / 22
2026-08-05	$8.31	$775,259,060	14 / 17
2026-08-06	$8.31	$775,259,060	14 / 17
2026-08-07	$8.45	$794,088,197	14 / 16
2026-08-08	$8.42	$793,700,850	22 / 22
2026-08-09	$8.42	$793,700,850	22 / 22
2026-08-10	$8.42	$793,700,850	22 / 22
2026-08-12	$8.45	$794,088,197	14 / 16
2026-08-13	$8.45	$794,088,197	14 / 16
2026-08-14	$8.45	$794,088,197	14 / 16
2026-08-15	$8.45	$794,088,197	14 / 16
2026-08-16	$8.45	$794,088,197	14 / 16
2026-08-17	$8.45	$794,088,197	14 / 16
2026-08-18	$8.45	$794,088,197	14 / 16
2026-08-19	$8.45	$794,088,197	14 / 16
2026-08-20	$8.47	$795,990,137	14 / 17
2026-08-21	$8.47	$795,990,137	14 / 17
2026-08-22	$8.47	$795,990,137	14 / 17
2026-08-23	$8.47	$795,990,137	14 / 17
2026-08-24	$8.47	$795,990,137	14 / 17
2026-08-25	$8.47	$795,990,137	14 / 17
2026-08-26	$8.47	$795,990,137	14 / 17
2026-08-27	$8.47	$795,990,137	14 / 17
2026-08-28	$8.47	$795,990,137	14 / 17
2026-08-29	$8.47	$795,992,108	14 / 17
2026-08-30	$8.47	$795,992,108	14 / 17
2026-08-31	$8.47	$795,992,108	14 / 17
2026-09-01	$8.47	$795,992,108	14 / 17
2026-09-02	$8.47	$795,992,108	14 / 17
2026-09-03	$8.47	$795,992,108	14 / 17
2026-09-04	$8.47	$795,992,108	14 / 17
2026-09-05	$8.47	$795,992,108	14 / 17
2026-09-06	$8.47	$795,992,108	14 / 17
2026-09-07	$8.47	$795,992,108	14 / 17
2026-09-08	$8.47	$795,992,108	14 / 17
2026-09-09	$8.47	$795,992,108	14 / 17
2026-09-10	$8.47	$795,992,108	14 / 17
2026-09-11	$8.47	$795,992,503	14 / 17
2026-09-12	$8.47	$795,992,503	14 / 17
2026-09-13	$8.47	$795,992,503	14 / 16
2026-09-14	$8.47	$795,992,503	14 / 16
2026-09-15	$8.47	$795,992,503	14 / 16
2026-09-16	$8.47	$795,992,505	14 / 17
2026-09-17	$8.47	$795,992,505	14 / 17
2026-09-18	$8.47	$795,992,505	14 / 17
2026-09-19	$8.47	$795,992,505	14 / 17
2026-09-20	$8.47	$795,992,505	14 / 17
2026-09-21	$8.47	$795,992,505	14 / 17
2026-09-22	$8.47	$795,992,505	14 / 17
2026-09-23	$8.47	$795,992,505	14 / 17
2026-09-24	$8.47	$795,992,505	14 / 17
2026-09-25	$8.47	$795,992,505	14 / 17
2026-09-26	$8.47	$795,992,505	14 / 17
2026-09-27	$8.47	$795,992,505	14 / 17
2026-09-28	$8.47	$795,992,505	14 / 17
2026-09-29	$8.47	$795,992,505	14 / 17
2026-09-30	$8.47	$795,992,505	14 / 17
2026-10-01	$8.47	$795,992,505	14 / 17
2026-10-02	$8.47	$795,970,070	14 / 17
2026-10-03	$8.47	$795,970,070	14 / 17
2026-10-04	$8.47	$795,970,070	14 / 17
2026-10-05	$8.47	$795,970,070	14 / 17
2026-10-06	$8.47	$795,970,070	14 / 17
2026-10-07	$8.47	$795,992,503	14 / 17
2026-10-08	$8.47	$795,992,503	14 / 17
2026-10-09	$8.47	$795,992,503	14 / 17
2026-10-10	$8.47	$795,992,503	14 / 17
2026-10-11	$8.47	$795,992,503	14 / 17
2026-10-12	$8.47	$795,992,503	14 / 17
2026-10-13	$8.47	$795,992,503	14 / 17
2026-10-14	$8.47	$795,972,503	14 / 17
2026-10-15	$8.47	$795,972,503	14 / 17
2026-10-16	$8.47	$795,974,871	14 / 17
2026-10-17	$8.47	$795,974,871	14 / 17
2026-10-18	$8.47	$795,974,871	14 / 17
2026-10-19	$8.47	$795,974,871	14 / 17
2026-10-20	$8.47	$795,974,871	14 / 17
2026-10-21	$8.47	$795,974,871	14 / 17
2026-10-22	$8.47	$795,974,871	14 / 17
2026-10-23	$8.47	$795,974,871	14 / 17
2026-10-24	$8.47	$795,974,871	14 / 17

Revenue and EPS estimates track expectations. They are not delivered results or like-for-like proof of a required annual path.

Compare required revenue and earnings

Analyst view

Monthly observations

Buy / Strong BuyHoldSell / Strong Sell

Exact monthly counts

Monthly rating snapshots · fmp. Missing snapshots are not zero.
Date	Buy*	Hold	Sell*
2026-05-01	5	17	2
2026-06-01	5	17	2
2026-07-01	5	17	2
2026-08-01	5	16	1
2026-09-01	5	17	1
2026-10-01	4	17	1

*Buy includes Strong Buy; Sell includes Strong Sell. Monthly counts describe the analyst mix, not the firms behind each recent action.

Latest: 4 Buy / Strong Buy · 17 Hold · 1 Sell / Strong Sell

0 upgrades0 downgrades1 maintains

Recent actions · Sep 25–Oct 24 · 1 recorded

Price-target changes

30 days

○ Previous · ● Latest · common dollar scale

Morgan StanleyOct 13 · prior Aug 5

$130.00 → $200.00+53.8%

$0$110.00$220.00

1 raises · 0 cuts · 0 unchanged · 0 without a comparable prior

How this is measured

Sep 25, 2026–Oct 24, 2026. Each firm's latest positive target is paired only with its immediately prior positive target from the same provider, at most 180 days earlier. Unmatched observations have one dot; conflicting observations are not compared.

Outlook in Brief

The evidence, the remaining questions, and what comes next

What's improving

No recovery evidence is reported in the available driver assessments.

Still unresolved / key risks

EPS meets or exceeds $5.5 for FY26Published status: Broken
Net income grows to at least $50.6MNet income: $52.405M
Operating income increases to at least $60.9MPublished status: Broken
Revenue grows at least 8.8% YoYPublished status: Broken

Next proof point

Nov 3, 2026

Look for updated results and guidance against the published targets, plus direct evidence for unresolved drivers.

Review earnings

Bottom line

4 of 4 published conditions remain under pressure or need verification. The next results need to address those conditions.

The dated weekly assessment and its assumptions are available in Read detailed Outlook.

Historical risk context

Observed price history; separate from operating scenarios

Price sensitivity

2.6%Typical daily move · historical

Downside history

-50.5%Maximum drawdown · trailing year

Read detailed Outlook Company context, assumptions & risks

Qualys outlook in detail

The weekly editorial context below is a separate assessment from the dated monitor evidence above. Recovery observations do not automatically change the published thesis. Unverified outside influences are hypotheses, not measured driver evidence.

Updated Oct 24, 2026

What kind of bet this is

QLYS is a profitable growth business with a multi-year view tied to steady revenue growth and improving earnings. The thesis is intact, but confidence has eased from high to medium and the overall risk rating is high.

What's priced into Qualys

The valuation evidence is mixed: QLYS is tagged as stretched, while one comparison also describes it as cheap versus peers. The expectations gap is 0.12, and fragility is low, so the snapshot points to elevated expectations without a specific fragility warning.

What the fundamentals likely do

Near-term results have been strong, with recent earnings beats and year-over-year gains in revenue, operating income, net income, and EPS. Management’s stated priorities are on track, but the near-term earnings miss risk is described as low rather than absent, and past deep misses plus a downward trend in surprises warrant attention.

What Qualys hinges on

The main company-specific swing factor is whether management sustains execution after recently raising guidance; a reversal and guidance cut would damage credibility. Over the near term, rate cuts and continued strong results from major technology peers could support the sector backdrop, while the snapshot gives limited detail on other forward drivers.