Patterson-UTI Energy, Inc. (PTEN)

Q: What's priced into Patterson-UTI Energy, Inc. (PTEN) stock?

The valuation signal is mixed: PTEN is described as cheap versus peers, while the broader priced-in tag is stretched. The model also shows a modest expectations gap, but confidence in that valuation read is low; the evidence does not establish exactly what the market assumes.

Q: What does the Patterson-UTI Energy, Inc. (PTEN) outlook hinge on?

The next guidance update is a key swing factor: a cut would add pressure to an already weak recent performance picture. Over the multi-year view, continued growth in drilling activity and support from sector bellwethers such as NE, VAL, and HP would help sustain the sector tailwind; misses or lower guidance from those companies could weaken it.

NASDAQEnergyOil & Gas DrillingSnapshot 2026-10-23

$11.97+5.56%

Close 2026-10-23 · 1-day change

Investment OutlookAs of Oct 24, 2026

What could strengthen or challenge Patterson-UTI Energy, Inc.’s outlook?

The long-term thesis, the evidence coming in, and the environment around it. Thesis dated Jul 8, 2026.

Higher potential upsideImproving expectations

Next-FY EPS estimate change · 30 days

+15.8% · beyond scale

+10% or more+5%0%−5%−10% or less

0.28 → 0.32 EPS · FY ending Dec 31, 2027 · 7 analysts

Higher risk of downsideWeakening expectations

One observable signal. This measures changing earnings expectations, not the probability of a gain or loss.

How this is measured

Change in the same fiscal period’s mean EPS estimate from Sep 24, 2026 to Oct 24, 2026: (new ÷ prior − 1). Contributor count changed from 6 to 7; this is not the number of analysts revising. Source: FMP consensus snapshots. The ±10% axis is a display range.

Measure / period	Management expectations	Analyst expectations
Quarter ending 2026-12-30
Revenue	—	1.29B
EPS	—	0.042
Annual ending 2026-12-31
Revenue	—	4.95B
EPS	—	-0.004
Annual ending 2027-12-31
Revenue	—	5.32B
EPS	—	0.319

Management figures unavailable.

What the Thesis Depends On

Three published thesis conditions, with dated milestones shown separately.

Key Factor	Why It Matters	Current Status	Break Condition	Latest Evidence
Capital spending under $500 million in 2026	They plan to keep capital spending under $500 million this year.	Broken	Capital spending exceeds $500 million in FY26	Capital expenditures: $155.924M FY2026-Q2; GAAP. Published target: <=500 million USD. Target period is not explicitly aligned with this observation. Source published Aug 4, 2026155,924,000 USD · source valueSource reportLast status assessment Oct 24, 2026 Measurement source consolidated · GAAP FY2026-Q2 · Period ending Jun 30, 2026 Source: stock_quarterly_financials_fmp. Reference: 2026-Q2. Source status: unverified. Compare required operating outcomes Compare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement.
Improve cash from operations to support stability	Cash from operations was $63.9 million in Q1, showing some cash flow.	Broken	Cash from operations falls below $63.9 million quarterly average	Cash from operations: $56.082M FY2026-Q2; GAAP. Published target: Increase cash from operations above Q1 2026 level. Target period is not explicitly aligned with this observation. Source published Aug 4, 202656,082,000 USD · source valueSource reportLast status assessment Oct 24, 2026 Measurement source consolidated · GAAP FY2026-Q2 · Period ending Jun 30, 2026 Source: stock_quarterly_financials_fmp. Reference: 2026-Q2. Source status: unverified. Compare required operating outcomes Compare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement.
Redeem $482.5 million senior notes due 2028	Patterson-UTI cut debt by $482.5 million in 2026.	Recovered	Failure to redeem $482.5 million notes by mid-2026	Direct metric needs a verified mapping The published measure or accounting basis is not supported by an exact source binding. Source date unavailableLast status assessment Oct 24, 2026Compare required operating outcomes Compare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement.

Stored thesis · Jul 8, 2026. Latest Evidence uses source-matched measurements where available, alongside the last thesis-monitor assessment. Source periods and assessment dates are shown separately. A new measurement does not automatically change the published status or verify an older target.

Incoming Evidence

Compare these dated observations with the operating requirements above

Expectations trend

Same fiscal period

FY2027 · fiscal year ending 2027-12-31 · fmp

FY2027 EPS$0.32

$0.22 → $0.32 · observed estimates

FY2027 revenue$5.32B

$4.96B → $5.32B · observed estimates

Exact estimates & source dates

One fiscal period and provider throughout. At least five contributors are required for each plotted metric; missing coverage stays a gap. Axes show the observed range. Counts measure coverage, not revisions.

FY2027 estimate observations · fmp
Snapshot	EPS	Revenue	EPS / revenue analysts
2026-07-24	$0.22	$4,957,960,020	9 / 12
2026-07-25	$0.22	$4,994,520,614	8 / 10
2026-07-26	$0.22	$4,957,960,020	9 / 12
2026-07-27	$0.22	$4,957,960,020	9 / 12
2026-07-28	$0.22	$4,957,960,020	9 / 12
2026-07-29	$0.22	$4,957,960,020	9 / 12
2026-07-30	$0.22	$4,994,520,614	8 / 10
2026-07-31	$0.22	$5,028,249,186	8 / 10
2026-08-01	$0.22	$5,028,249,186	8 / 10
2026-08-02	$0.25	$5,130,199,093	8 / 10
2026-08-03	$0.25	$5,130,199,093	8 / 10
2026-08-04	$0.25	$5,130,199,093	8 / 10
2026-08-05	$0.25	$5,130,199,093	8 / 10
2026-08-06	$0.25	$5,130,199,093	8 / 10
2026-08-07	$0.25	$5,130,199,093	8 / 10
2026-08-08	$0.24	$5,169,010,930	9 / 12
2026-08-09	$0.24	$5,169,010,930	9 / 12
2026-08-10	$0.24	$5,169,010,930	9 / 12
2026-08-12	$0.24	$5,169,010,930	9 / 12
2026-08-13	$0.25	$5,130,199,093	8 / 10
2026-08-14	$0.25	$5,130,199,093	8 / 10
2026-08-15	$0.25	$5,130,199,093	8 / 10
2026-08-16	$0.25	$5,130,199,093	8 / 10
2026-08-17	$0.25	$5,130,199,093	8 / 10
2026-08-18	$0.25	$5,130,199,093	8 / 10
2026-08-19	$0.25	$5,130,199,093	8 / 10
2026-08-20	$0.29	$5,240,813,307	8 / 10
2026-08-21	$0.29	$5,268,428,509	7 / 10
2026-08-22	$0.29	$5,268,428,509	7 / 10
2026-08-23	$0.29	$5,268,428,509	7 / 10
2026-08-24	$0.29	$5,268,428,509	7 / 10
2026-08-25	$0.29	$5,271,214,224	7 / 10
2026-08-26	$0.29	$5,271,214,224	7 / 10
2026-08-27	$0.29	$5,271,214,224	7 / 10
2026-08-28	$0.29	$5,271,214,224	7 / 10
2026-08-29	$0.29	$5,271,214,224	7 / 10
2026-08-30	$0.29	$5,271,214,224	7 / 10
2026-08-31	$0.29	$5,271,214,224	7 / 10
2026-09-01	$0.29	$5,271,214,224	7 / 10
2026-09-02	$0.29	$5,271,214,224	7 / 10
2026-09-03	$0.29	$5,271,214,224	7 / 10
2026-09-04	$0.29	$5,271,214,224	7 / 10
2026-09-05	$0.28	$5,285,482,942	7 / 10
2026-09-06	$0.28	$5,285,482,942	6 / 10
2026-09-07	$0.28	$5,285,482,942	6 / 10
2026-09-08	$0.28	$5,285,482,942	6 / 10
2026-09-09	$0.28	$5,285,482,942	6 / 10
2026-09-10	$0.28	$5,285,482,942	6 / 10
2026-09-11	$0.28	$5,285,482,942	6 / 10
2026-09-12	$0.28	$5,285,482,942	6 / 10
2026-09-13	$0.28	$5,285,482,942	6 / 10
2026-09-14	$0.28	$5,285,482,942	6 / 10
2026-09-15	$0.28	$5,285,482,942	6 / 10
2026-09-16	$0.28	$5,285,482,942	6 / 10
2026-09-17	$0.28	$5,285,482,942	6 / 10
2026-09-18	$0.28	$5,285,482,942	6 / 10
2026-09-19	$0.28	$5,285,482,942	6 / 10
2026-09-20	$0.28	$5,285,482,942	6 / 10
2026-09-21	$0.28	$5,285,482,942	6 / 10
2026-09-22	$0.28	$5,285,482,942	6 / 10
2026-09-23	$0.28	$5,285,482,942	6 / 10
2026-09-24	$0.28	$5,285,482,942	6 / 10
2026-09-25	$0.28	$5,285,482,942	6 / 10
2026-09-26	$0.28	$5,285,482,942	6 / 10
2026-09-27	$0.28	$5,285,482,942	6 / 10
2026-09-28	$0.28	$5,285,482,942	6 / 10
2026-09-29	$0.28	$5,285,482,942	6 / 10
2026-09-30	$0.28	$5,285,482,942	6 / 10
2026-10-01	$0.28	$5,285,482,942	6 / 10
2026-10-02	$0.30	$5,309,057,904	6 / 10
2026-10-03	$0.31	$5,315,877,681	7 / 10
2026-10-04	$0.31	$5,315,877,681	7 / 11
2026-10-05	$0.31	$5,315,877,681	7 / 11
2026-10-06	$0.31	$5,316,317,681	7 / 11
2026-10-07	$0.31	$5,316,317,681	7 / 11
2026-10-08	$0.31	$5,316,317,681	7 / 11
2026-10-09	$0.31	$5,316,317,681	7 / 11
2026-10-10	$0.31	$5,316,317,681	7 / 11
2026-10-11	$0.31	$5,316,317,681	7 / 11
2026-10-12	$0.31	$5,316,317,681	7 / 11
2026-10-13	$0.31	$5,316,317,681	7 / 11
2026-10-14	$0.31	$5,325,554,988	7 / 11
2026-10-15	$0.31	$5,312,559,377	7 / 11
2026-10-16	$0.31	$5,312,559,377	7 / 11
2026-10-17	$0.31	$5,312,559,377	7 / 11
2026-10-18	$0.31	$5,313,892,711	7 / 11
2026-10-19	$0.31	$5,313,892,711	7 / 11
2026-10-20	$0.32	$5,316,919,377	7 / 11
2026-10-21	$0.32	$5,319,595,611	7 / 11
2026-10-22	$0.32	$5,319,595,611	7 / 11
2026-10-23	$0.32	$5,319,595,611	7 / 11
2026-10-24	$0.32	$5,319,595,611	7 / 11

Revenue and EPS estimates track expectations. They are not delivered results or like-for-like proof of a required annual path.

Compare required revenue and earnings

Analyst view

Monthly observations

Buy / Strong BuyHoldSell / Strong Sell

Exact monthly counts

Monthly rating snapshots · fmp. Missing snapshots are not zero.
Date	Buy*	Hold	Sell*
2026-05-01	8	7	1
2026-06-01	8	6	1
2026-07-01	9	6	1
2026-08-01	9	6	1
2026-09-01	9	6	0
2026-10-01	9	7	0

*Buy includes Strong Buy; Sell includes Strong Sell. Monthly counts describe the analyst mix, not the firms behind each recent action.

Latest: 9 Buy / Strong Buy · 7 Hold · 0 Sell / Strong Sell

0 upgrades0 downgrades1 maintains

Recent actions · Sep 25–Oct 24 · 1 recorded

Price-target changes

30 days

○ Previous · ● Latest · common dollar scale

UBSOct 2

$13.00New observation · no comparable prior

$0$7.15$14.30

0 raises · 0 cuts · 0 unchanged · 1 without a comparable prior

How this is measured

Sep 25, 2026–Oct 24, 2026. Each firm's latest positive target is paired only with its immediately prior positive target from the same provider, at most 180 days earlier. Unmatched observations have one dot; conflicting observations are not compared.

Outlook in Brief

The evidence, the remaining questions, and what comes next

What's improving

No recovery evidence is reported in the available driver assessments.

Still unresolved / key risks

Capital spending under $500 million in 2026Published status: Broken
Improve cash from operations to support stabilityPublished status: Broken
Redeem $482.5 million senior notes due 2028Direct metric needs a verified mapping

Next proof point

Oct 28, 2026

Look for updated results and guidance against the published targets, plus direct evidence for unresolved drivers.

Review earnings

Bottom line

3 of 3 published conditions remain under pressure or need verification. The next results need to address those conditions.

The dated weekly assessment and its assumptions are available in Read detailed Outlook.

Historical risk context

Observed price history; separate from operating scenarios

Price sensitivity

2.0%Typical daily move · historical

Downside history

-33.4%Maximum drawdown · trailing year

Read detailed Outlook Company context, assumptions & risks

Patterson-UTI Energy, Inc. outlook in detail

The weekly editorial context below is a separate assessment from the dated monitor evidence above. Recovery observations do not automatically change the published thesis. Unverified outside influences are hypotheses, not measured driver evidence.

Updated Oct 24, 2026

What kind of bet this is

PTEN is a cyclical energy-services business with a sector tailwind, but recent financial performance has been weak and the risk level is elevated. The long-term thesis is in a watch state, with management delivering on activity growth and technology investment but mixed evidence on spending discipline and capital structure priorities.

What's priced into Patterson-UTI Energy, Inc.

The valuation signal is mixed: PTEN is described as cheap versus peers, while the broader priced-in tag is stretched. The model also shows a modest expectations gap, but confidence in that valuation read is low; the evidence does not establish exactly what the market assumes.

What the fundamentals likely do

In the near term, the recent earnings miss and performance below the industry cohort are key concerns, although the snapshot rates miss risk as quiet. Management has raised its 2026 capital expenditure outlook from below $500 million to around $600 million, while rig activity has grown and technology investments are supporting expansion. Refinancing addressed upcoming debt needs, but the evidence rates progress on capital structure priorities as mixed.

What Patterson-UTI Energy, Inc. hinges on

The next guidance update is a key swing factor: a cut would add pressure to an already weak recent performance picture. Over the multi-year view, continued growth in drilling activity and support from sector bellwethers such as NE, VAL, and HP would help sustain the sector tailwind; misses or lower guidance from those companies could weaken it.

Bottom line

Over the next 1 to 3 years, PTEN’s thesis depends on activity growth translating into stronger financial performance without further deterioration in guidance, while sector conditions remain supportive. The evidence is mixed, and valuation signals are uncertain. Not investment advice.

Not investment advice. Scores describe historical and current data; they are not forecasts of future returns. Consult a licensed advisor before making investment decisions.

Measure / period	Management expectations	Analyst expectations
Quarter ending 2026-12-30
Revenue	—	1.29B
EPS	—	0.042
Annual ending 2026-12-31
Revenue	—	4.95B
EPS	—	-0.004
Annual ending 2027-12-31
Revenue	—	5.32B
EPS	—	0.319

Expectations trend

Same fiscal period

FY2027 · fiscal year ending 2027-12-31 · fmp

FY2027 EPS$0.32

$0.22 → $0.32 · observed estimates

FY2027 revenue$5.32B

$4.96B → $5.32B · observed estimates

Exact estimates & source dates

FY2027 estimate observations · fmp
Snapshot	EPS	Revenue	EPS / revenue analysts
2026-07-24	$0.22	$4,957,960,020	9 / 12
2026-07-25	$0.22	$4,994,520,614	8 / 10
2026-07-26	$0.22	$4,957,960,020	9 / 12
2026-07-27	$0.22	$4,957,960,020	9 / 12
2026-07-28	$0.22	$4,957,960,020	9 / 12
2026-07-29	$0.22	$4,957,960,020	9 / 12
2026-07-30	$0.22	$4,994,520,614	8 / 10
2026-07-31	$0.22	$5,028,249,186	8 / 10
2026-08-01	$0.22	$5,028,249,186	8 / 10
2026-08-02	$0.25	$5,130,199,093	8 / 10
2026-08-03	$0.25	$5,130,199,093	8 / 10
2026-08-04	$0.25	$5,130,199,093	8 / 10
2026-08-05	$0.25	$5,130,199,093	8 / 10
2026-08-06	$0.25	$5,130,199,093	8 / 10
2026-08-07	$0.25	$5,130,199,093	8 / 10
2026-08-08	$0.24	$5,169,010,930	9 / 12
2026-08-09	$0.24	$5,169,010,930	9 / 12
2026-08-10	$0.24	$5,169,010,930	9 / 12
2026-08-12	$0.24	$5,169,010,930	9 / 12
2026-08-13	$0.25	$5,130,199,093	8 / 10
2026-08-14	$0.25	$5,130,199,093	8 / 10
2026-08-15	$0.25	$5,130,199,093	8 / 10
2026-08-16	$0.25	$5,130,199,093	8 / 10
2026-08-17	$0.25	$5,130,199,093	8 / 10
2026-08-18	$0.25	$5,130,199,093	8 / 10
2026-08-19	$0.25	$5,130,199,093	8 / 10
2026-08-20	$0.29	$5,240,813,307	8 / 10
2026-08-21	$0.29	$5,268,428,509	7 / 10
2026-08-22	$0.29	$5,268,428,509	7 / 10
2026-08-23	$0.29	$5,268,428,509	7 / 10
2026-08-24	$0.29	$5,268,428,509	7 / 10
2026-08-25	$0.29	$5,271,214,224	7 / 10
2026-08-26	$0.29	$5,271,214,224	7 / 10
2026-08-27	$0.29	$5,271,214,224	7 / 10
2026-08-28	$0.29	$5,271,214,224	7 / 10
2026-08-29	$0.29	$5,271,214,224	7 / 10
2026-08-30	$0.29	$5,271,214,224	7 / 10
2026-08-31	$0.29	$5,271,214,224	7 / 10
2026-09-01	$0.29	$5,271,214,224	7 / 10
2026-09-02	$0.29	$5,271,214,224	7 / 10
2026-09-03	$0.29	$5,271,214,224	7 / 10
2026-09-04	$0.29	$5,271,214,224	7 / 10
2026-09-05	$0.28	$5,285,482,942	7 / 10
2026-09-06	$0.28	$5,285,482,942	6 / 10
2026-09-07	$0.28	$5,285,482,942	6 / 10
2026-09-08	$0.28	$5,285,482,942	6 / 10
2026-09-09	$0.28	$5,285,482,942	6 / 10
2026-09-10	$0.28	$5,285,482,942	6 / 10
2026-09-11	$0.28	$5,285,482,942	6 / 10
2026-09-12	$0.28	$5,285,482,942	6 / 10
2026-09-13	$0.28	$5,285,482,942	6 / 10
2026-09-14	$0.28	$5,285,482,942	6 / 10
2026-09-15	$0.28	$5,285,482,942	6 / 10
2026-09-16	$0.28	$5,285,482,942	6 / 10
2026-09-17	$0.28	$5,285,482,942	6 / 10
2026-09-18	$0.28	$5,285,482,942	6 / 10
2026-09-19	$0.28	$5,285,482,942	6 / 10
2026-09-20	$0.28	$5,285,482,942	6 / 10
2026-09-21	$0.28	$5,285,482,942	6 / 10
2026-09-22	$0.28	$5,285,482,942	6 / 10
2026-09-23	$0.28	$5,285,482,942	6 / 10
2026-09-24	$0.28	$5,285,482,942	6 / 10
2026-09-25	$0.28	$5,285,482,942	6 / 10
2026-09-26	$0.28	$5,285,482,942	6 / 10
2026-09-27	$0.28	$5,285,482,942	6 / 10
2026-09-28	$0.28	$5,285,482,942	6 / 10
2026-09-29	$0.28	$5,285,482,942	6 / 10
2026-09-30	$0.28	$5,285,482,942	6 / 10
2026-10-01	$0.28	$5,285,482,942	6 / 10
2026-10-02	$0.30	$5,309,057,904	6 / 10
2026-10-03	$0.31	$5,315,877,681	7 / 10
2026-10-04	$0.31	$5,315,877,681	7 / 11
2026-10-05	$0.31	$5,315,877,681	7 / 11
2026-10-06	$0.31	$5,316,317,681	7 / 11
2026-10-07	$0.31	$5,316,317,681	7 / 11
2026-10-08	$0.31	$5,316,317,681	7 / 11
2026-10-09	$0.31	$5,316,317,681	7 / 11
2026-10-10	$0.31	$5,316,317,681	7 / 11
2026-10-11	$0.31	$5,316,317,681	7 / 11
2026-10-12	$0.31	$5,316,317,681	7 / 11
2026-10-13	$0.31	$5,316,317,681	7 / 11
2026-10-14	$0.31	$5,325,554,988	7 / 11
2026-10-15	$0.31	$5,312,559,377	7 / 11
2026-10-16	$0.31	$5,312,559,377	7 / 11
2026-10-17	$0.31	$5,312,559,377	7 / 11
2026-10-18	$0.31	$5,313,892,711	7 / 11
2026-10-19	$0.31	$5,313,892,711	7 / 11
2026-10-20	$0.32	$5,316,919,377	7 / 11
2026-10-21	$0.32	$5,319,595,611	7 / 11
2026-10-22	$0.32	$5,319,595,611	7 / 11
2026-10-23	$0.32	$5,319,595,611	7 / 11
2026-10-24	$0.32	$5,319,595,611	7 / 11

Revenue and EPS estimates track expectations. They are not delivered results or like-for-like proof of a required annual path.

Compare required revenue and earnings