PriceSmart (PSMT)

NASDAQConsumer StaplesDiscount StoresSnapshot 2026-10-23

$170.95-0.37%

Close 2026-10-23 · 1-day change

Investment OutlookAs of Oct 24, 2026

What could strengthen or challenge PriceSmart’s outlook?

The long-term thesis, the evidence coming in, and the environment around it. Thesis dated Jul 8, 2026.

Higher potential upsideImproving expectations

Next-FY EPS estimate change · 30 days

Comparable estimates unavailable

+10% or more+5%0%−5%−10% or less

A matching fiscal period and sufficient coverage are required.

Higher risk of downsideWeakening expectations

One observable signal. This measures changing earnings expectations, not the probability of a gain or loss.

How this is measured

The calculation requires same-period, same-provider snapshots, positive EPS, at least five analysts and a baseline within three days of the requested lookback.

Measure / period	Management expectations	Analyst expectations
Quarter ending 2026-11-30
Revenue	—	1.49B
EPS	—	1.489
Annual ending 2027-08-31
Revenue	—	6.5B
EPS	—	6.305
Annual ending 2028-08-31
Revenue	—	7.2B
EPS	—	7.445

Management figures unavailable.

What the Thesis Depends On

4 published thesis conditions, with dated milestones shown separately.

Key Factor	Why It Matters	Current Status	Break Condition	Latest Evidence
Earnings per share growth	Earnings per share guidance for 2026 is $2.91, indicating profit growth.	Intact	EPS falls below $2.50 in fiscal 2026	Diluted EPS: $1.28 per share FY2026-Q3; GAAP. Published target: EPS >= $2.91 in fiscal 2026. Target period ends 2026-08-31; this observation covers 2026-Q3. Source published Jul 8, 20261.28 USD/share · source valueSource reportLast status assessment Oct 24, 2026 Measurement source consolidated · GAAP FY2026-Q3 · Period ending May 31, 2026 Source: company_financial_results. Reference: af0a1983-f412-4db4-b0b6-91cabdc59e2b. Source status: eligible. Compare required operating outcomes Compare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement.
Net merchandise sales growth to support revenue	PriceSmart is growing sales about 10% with net merchandise sales hitting $1.47 billion.	Intact	net merchandise sales growth falls below 7% YoY next quarter	Direct metric needs a verified mapping The published measure or accounting basis is not supported by an exact source binding. Source date unavailableLast status assessment Oct 24, 2026Compare required operating outcomes Compare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement. Management context Stated in 2 of last 2 quarters. Net merchandise sales grew from approximately $1.33 billion in 2025-Q2 to $1.47 billion in 2026-Q1 and $1.45 billion in 2026-Q2, with comparable net merchandise sales also increasing. The trajectory is delivering consistent growth aligned with management's stated priority. Delivery assessment Oct 6, 2026
Operating income improvement	Operating income rose to $75.4 million, showing better profits.	Broken	operating income falls below $65 million next quarter	Operating income: $65.641M FY2026-Q3; GAAP. Published target: >= $75 million operating income next quarter. The stored target says 2026-Q2; this source reports FY2026-Q3. Fiscal/calendar alignment needs review. Source published Jul 8, 202665,641,000 USD · source valueSource reportLast status assessment Oct 24, 2026 Measurement source consolidated · GAAP FY2026-Q3 · Period ending May 31, 2026 Source: company_financial_results. Reference: af0a1983-f412-4db4-b0b6-91cabdc59e2b. Source status: eligible. Compare required operating outcomes Compare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement. Management context Stated in 3 of last 3 quarters. Operating income rose from $56.2 million in 2025-Q3 to $65.6 million in 2026-Q1 and $75.4 million in 2026-Q2, reflecting improved profitability. The trajectory is delivering consistent enhancement in operating income as management prioritized. Delivery assessment Oct 6, 2026
Expansion of warehouse clubs in Latin America	The company plans to open new clubs in Latin America, supporting growth.	Intact	failure to open new clubs or delays in 2026	Qualitative: Expansion on track (Chile) Multiple headlines from July-Aug 2026 confirm Chile expansion and scaling regional warehouse footprint. Context reviewed through Oct 23, 2026Last status assessment Oct 24, 2026Compare required operating outcomes Compare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement. Management context Stated in 2 of last 2 quarters. Management detailed plans to open new clubs in Chile, Costa Rica, Guatemala, and Jamaica, increasing total clubs from 61 in 2026-Q1 to 63 by spring 2027. The trajectory shows active expansion consistent with stated growth priorities. Delivery assessment Oct 6, 2026

Stored thesis · Jul 8, 2026. Latest Evidence uses source-matched measurements where available, alongside the last thesis-monitor assessment. Source periods and assessment dates are shown separately. A new measurement does not automatically change the published status or verify an older target.

Incoming Evidence

Compare these dated observations with the operating requirements above

Expectations trend

Same fiscal period

FY2028 · fiscal year ending 2028-08-31 · fmp

FY2028 EPS: comparable history unavailable.

FY2028 revenue: comparable history unavailable.

Exact estimates & source dates

One fiscal period and provider throughout. At least five contributors are required for each plotted metric; missing coverage stays a gap. Axes show the observed range. Counts measure coverage, not revisions.

FY2028 estimate observations · fmp
Snapshot	EPS	Revenue	EPS / revenue analysts
2026-09-01	Unavailable	Unavailable	1 / 1
2026-09-02	Unavailable	Unavailable	1 / 1
2026-09-03	Unavailable	Unavailable	1 / 1
2026-09-04	Unavailable	Unavailable	1 / 1
2026-09-05	Unavailable	Unavailable	1 / 1
2026-09-06	Unavailable	Unavailable	1 / 1
2026-09-07	Unavailable	Unavailable	1 / 1
2026-09-08	Unavailable	Unavailable	1 / 1
2026-09-09	Unavailable	Unavailable	1 / 1
2026-09-10	Unavailable	Unavailable	1 / 1
2026-09-11	Unavailable	Unavailable	1 / 1
2026-09-12	Unavailable	Unavailable	1 / 1
2026-09-13	Unavailable	Unavailable	1 / 1
2026-09-14	Unavailable	Unavailable	1 / 1
2026-09-15	Unavailable	Unavailable	1 / 1
2026-09-16	Unavailable	Unavailable	1 / 1
2026-09-17	Unavailable	Unavailable	1 / 1
2026-09-18	Unavailable	Unavailable	1 / 1
2026-09-19	Unavailable	Unavailable	1 / 1
2026-09-20	Unavailable	Unavailable	1 / 1
2026-09-21	Unavailable	Unavailable	1 / 1
2026-09-22	Unavailable	Unavailable	1 / 1
2026-09-23	Unavailable	Unavailable	1 / 1
2026-09-24	Unavailable	Unavailable	1 / 1
2026-09-25	Unavailable	Unavailable	1 / 1
2026-09-26	Unavailable	Unavailable	1 / 1
2026-09-27	Unavailable	Unavailable	1 / 1
2026-09-28	Unavailable	Unavailable	1 / 1
2026-09-29	Unavailable	Unavailable	1 / 1
2026-09-30	Unavailable	Unavailable	1 / 1
2026-10-01	Unavailable	Unavailable	1 / 1
2026-10-02	Unavailable	Unavailable	1 / 1
2026-10-03	Unavailable	Unavailable	1 / 1
2026-10-04	Unavailable	Unavailable	1 / 1
2026-10-05	Unavailable	Unavailable	1 / 1
2026-10-06	Unavailable	Unavailable	1 / 1
2026-10-07	Unavailable	Unavailable	1 / 1
2026-10-08	Unavailable	Unavailable	1 / 1
2026-10-09	Unavailable	Unavailable	1 / 1
2026-10-10	Unavailable	Unavailable	1 / 1
2026-10-11	Unavailable	Unavailable	1 / 1
2026-10-12	Unavailable	Unavailable	1 / 1
2026-10-13	Unavailable	Unavailable	1 / 1
2026-10-14	Unavailable	Unavailable	1 / 1
2026-10-15	Unavailable	Unavailable	1 / 1
2026-10-16	Unavailable	Unavailable	1 / 1
2026-10-17	Unavailable	Unavailable	1 / 1
2026-10-18	Unavailable	Unavailable	1 / 1
2026-10-19	Unavailable	Unavailable	1 / 1
2026-10-20	Unavailable	Unavailable	1 / 1
2026-10-21	Unavailable	Unavailable	1 / 1
2026-10-22	Unavailable	Unavailable	1 / 1
2026-10-23	Unavailable	Unavailable	1 / 1
2026-10-24	Unavailable	Unavailable	1 / 1

Revenue and EPS estimates track expectations. They are not delivered results or like-for-like proof of a required annual path.

Compare required revenue and earnings

Analyst view

Monthly observations

Buy / Strong BuyHoldSell / Strong Sell

Exact monthly counts

Monthly rating snapshots · fmp. Missing snapshots are not zero.
Date	Buy*	Hold
2026-05-01	1	2
2026-06-01	1	2
2026-07-01	1	2
2026-08-01	1	2
2026-09-01	1	2
2026-10-01	1	2

*Buy includes Strong Buy; Sell includes Strong Sell. Monthly counts describe the analyst mix, not the firms behind each recent action.

Latest: 1 Buy / Strong Buy · 2 Hold · 0 Sell / Strong Sell

0 upgrades0 downgrades0 maintains

Recent actions · Sep 25–Oct 24 · 0 recorded

Price-target changes

30 days

Individual price-target observations are unavailable.

0 raises · 0 cuts · 0 unchanged · 0 without a comparable prior

How this is measured

Sep 25, 2026–Oct 24, 2026. Each firm's latest positive target is paired only with its immediately prior positive target from the same provider, at most 180 days earlier. Unmatched observations have one dot; conflicting observations are not compared.

Outlook in Brief

The evidence, the remaining questions, and what comes next

What's improving

No recovery evidence is reported in the available driver assessments.

Still unresolved / key risks

Earnings per share growthDiluted EPS: $1.28 per share
Net merchandise sales growth to support revenueDirect metric needs a verified mapping
Operating income improvementPublished status: Broken

Next proof point

Oct 26, 2026

Look for updated results and guidance against the published targets, plus direct evidence for unresolved drivers.

Review earnings

Bottom line

3 of 4 published conditions remain under pressure or need verification. The next results need to address those conditions.

The dated weekly assessment and its assumptions are available in Read detailed Outlook.

Historical risk context

Observed price history; separate from operating scenarios

Price sensitivity

1.0%Typical daily move · historical

Downside history

-15.6%Maximum drawdown · trailing year

Read detailed Outlook Company context, assumptions & risks

PriceSmart outlook in detail

The weekly editorial context below is a separate assessment from the dated monitor evidence above. Recovery observations do not automatically change the published thesis. Unverified outside influences are hypotheses, not measured driver evidence.

Updated Oct 24, 2026

What kind of bet this is

This is a growth and expansion story for a warehouse-club retailer, with recent financial performance rated strong and management rated stable. The long-term thesis is intact, though confidence in the evidence is medium and the valuation is expensive.

What's priced into PriceSmart

PSMT is valued at a premium to peers, reflecting expectations of durable growth. The measured gap between those expectations and the evidence is large, but model confidence is low; the evidence also says the expensive valuation alone does not create concentrated fragility.

What the fundamentals likely do

Near term, recent earnings beats and rising merchandise sales and operating income support the business picture. Management is expanding clubs in Latin America, although that priority is rated mixed; growing sales and operating income are on track. The near-term miss risk is rated low, but prior deep misses and recent peer misses remain cautions.

What PriceSmart hinges on

Over the next few quarters, the thesis hinges on management sustaining sales and profit growth while carrying out its club expansion plans. A guidance cut or further weakening in jobs data would add pressure, while continued strong results and guidance from large retail peers would support the sector backdrop.