United Parks & Resorts (PRKS)

NYSEConsumer DiscretionaryLeisureSnapshot 2026-10-23

$30.31-2.48%

Close 2026-10-23 · 1-day change

Investment OutlookAs of Oct 24, 2026

What could strengthen or challenge United Parks & Resorts’s outlook?

The long-term thesis, the evidence coming in, and the environment around it. Thesis dated Jul 8, 2026.

Higher potential upsideImproving expectations

Next-FY EPS estimate change · 30 days

-2.0%

+10% or more+5%0%−5%−10% or less

3.64 → 3.57 EPS · FY ending Dec 31, 2027 · 6 analysts

Higher risk of downsideWeakening expectations

One observable signal. This measures changing earnings expectations, not the probability of a gain or loss.

How this is measured

Change in the same fiscal period’s mean EPS estimate from Sep 24, 2026 to Oct 24, 2026: (new ÷ prior − 1). Contributor count changed from 6 to 6; this is not the number of analysts revising. Source: FMP consensus snapshots. The ±10% axis is a display range.

Measure / period	Management expectations	Analyst expectations
Quarter ending 2026-12-30
Revenue	—	382.73M
EPS	—	0.479
Annual ending 2026-12-31
Revenue	—	1.66B
EPS	—	2.898
Annual ending 2027-12-31
Revenue	—	1.71B
EPS	—	3.573

Management figures unavailable.

What the Thesis Depends On

Three published thesis conditions, with dated milestones shown separately.

Key Factor	Why It Matters	Current Status	Break Condition	Latest Evidence
Adjusted EBITDA growth in fiscal year 2026	A primary condition in United Parks & Resorts's published investment case. The stated target is Adjusted EBITDA growth >0% in FY26.	Intact	Adjusted EBITDA growth falls below 0% in FY26	Direct metric needs a verified mapping The published measure or accounting basis is not supported by an exact source binding. Source date unavailableLast status assessment Oct 24, 2026Compare required operating outcomes Compare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement. Management context Stated as a priority in 3 of last 3 quarters. Revenue was $278.3M in 2026-Q1 and $483.3M in 2026-Q2; Adjusted EBITDA was $58.0M and $195.5M respectively. Despite some revenue declines versus prior year, management reiterates commitment to growth in revenue and Adjusted EBITDA in 2026, showing a trajectory of delivering on this priority. Delivery assessment Oct 24, 2026
Growth in company-wide group booking revenue	Group booking revenue is improving, showing progress.	Broken	Group booking revenue declines or stalls in FY26	Direct metric needs a verified mapping The published measure or accounting basis is not supported by an exact source binding. Source date unavailableLast status assessment Oct 24, 2026Compare required operating outcomes Compare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement.
Revenue growth in fiscal year 2026	A primary condition in United Parks & Resorts's published investment case. The stated target is >0% YoY revenue growth in FY26.	Broken	YoY revenue growth falls below 0% in FY26	Revenue growth: -1.41% FY2026-Q2; GAAP. Published target: >0% YoY revenue growth in FY26. Target period is not explicitly aligned with this observation. Source published Aug 7, 2026-1.405922 percent · calculatedSource reportLast status assessment Oct 24, 2026 Measurement source consolidated · GAAP FY2026-Q2 · Period ending Jun 30, 2026 Source: company_financial_results. Reference: b70a0953-ca45-4697-8cbb-142194d58524. Source status: eligible. Compare required operating outcomes Compare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement. Management context Stated as a priority in 3 of last 3 quarters. Revenue was $278.3M in 2026-Q1 and $483.3M in 2026-Q2; Adjusted EBITDA was $58.0M and $195.5M respectively. Despite some revenue declines versus prior year, management reiterates commitment to growth in revenue and Adjusted EBITDA in 2026, showing a trajectory of delivering on this priority. Delivery assessment Oct 24, 2026

Stored thesis · Jul 8, 2026. Latest Evidence uses source-matched measurements where available, alongside the last thesis-monitor assessment. Source periods and assessment dates are shown separately. A new measurement does not automatically change the published status or verify an older target.

Incoming Evidence

Compare these dated observations with the operating requirements above

Expectations trend

Same fiscal period

FY2027 · fiscal year ending 2027-12-31 · fmp

FY2027 EPS$3.57

Unavailable → $3.57 · observed estimates

FY2027 revenue$1.71B

$1.73B → $1.71B · observed estimates

Exact estimates & source dates

One fiscal period and provider throughout. At least five contributors are required for each plotted metric; missing coverage stays a gap. Axes show the observed range. Counts measure coverage, not revisions.

FY2027 estimate observations · fmp
Snapshot	EPS	Revenue	EPS / revenue analysts
2026-07-24	Unavailable	$1,729,062,800	3 / 11
2026-07-25	Unavailable	$1,729,062,800	3 / 11
2026-07-26	Unavailable	$1,729,062,800	3 / 11
2026-07-27	Unavailable	$1,729,062,800	3 / 11
2026-07-28	Unavailable	$1,729,062,800	3 / 11
2026-07-29	Unavailable	$1,727,486,710	3 / 11
2026-07-30	Unavailable	$1,727,486,710	3 / 11
2026-07-31	$4.07	$1,731,672,128	5 / 8
2026-08-01	$4.07	$1,731,672,128	5 / 8
2026-08-02	Unavailable	$1,727,486,710	3 / 11
2026-08-03	$4.04	$1,730,227,378	5 / 8
2026-08-04	$4.04	$1,730,227,378	5 / 8
2026-08-05	$4.04	$1,730,227,378	5 / 8
2026-08-06	$4.04	$1,730,227,378	5 / 8
2026-08-07	$3.84	$1,719,760,024	6 / 8
2026-08-08	Unavailable	$1,714,787,410	4 / 11
2026-08-09	Unavailable	$1,714,787,410	4 / 11
2026-08-10	$3.84	$1,719,760,024	6 / 8
2026-08-12	Unavailable	$1,711,083,130	4 / 11
2026-08-13	$3.84	$1,719,760,024	6 / 8
2026-08-14	$3.84	$1,719,760,024	6 / 8
2026-08-15	$3.84	$1,719,760,024	6 / 8
2026-08-16	$3.84	$1,719,760,024	6 / 8
2026-08-17	$3.84	$1,719,760,024	6 / 8
2026-08-18	$3.84	$1,719,760,024	6 / 8
2026-08-19	$3.84	$1,719,760,024	6 / 8
2026-08-20	$3.74	$1,714,143,323	6 / 8
2026-08-21	$3.74	$1,714,143,323	6 / 8
2026-08-22	$3.74	$1,714,143,323	6 / 8
2026-08-23	$3.74	$1,714,143,323	6 / 8
2026-08-24	$3.74	$1,714,143,323	6 / 8
2026-08-25	$3.74	$1,714,143,323	6 / 8
2026-08-26	$3.74	$1,714,143,323	6 / 8
2026-08-27	$3.74	$1,714,143,323	6 / 8
2026-08-28	$3.74	$1,714,143,323	6 / 8
2026-08-29	$3.74	$1,714,143,323	6 / 8
2026-08-30	$3.74	$1,714,143,323	6 / 8
2026-08-31	$3.74	$1,714,143,323	6 / 8
2026-09-01	$3.74	$1,714,143,323	6 / 8
2026-09-02	$3.74	$1,714,143,323	6 / 8
2026-09-03	$3.74	$1,714,143,323	6 / 8
2026-09-04	$3.74	$1,714,143,323	6 / 8
2026-09-05	$3.74	$1,714,143,323	6 / 8
2026-09-06	$3.67	$1,711,705,591	6 / 8
2026-09-07	$3.67	$1,711,705,591	6 / 8
2026-09-08	$3.67	$1,711,705,591	6 / 8
2026-09-09	$3.67	$1,711,705,591	6 / 8
2026-09-10	$3.67	$1,711,705,591	6 / 8
2026-09-11	$3.64	$1,711,372,258	6 / 8
2026-09-12	$3.64	$1,711,372,258	6 / 8
2026-09-13	$3.64	$1,711,372,258	6 / 8
2026-09-14	$3.64	$1,711,372,258	6 / 8
2026-09-15	$3.64	$1,711,372,258	6 / 8
2026-09-16	$3.64	$1,711,372,258	6 / 8
2026-09-17	$3.64	$1,711,372,258	6 / 8
2026-09-18	$3.64	$1,711,372,258	6 / 8
2026-09-19	$3.64	$1,711,372,258	6 / 8
2026-09-20	$3.64	$1,711,372,258	6 / 8
2026-09-21	$3.64	$1,711,372,258	6 / 8
2026-09-22	$3.64	$1,711,372,258	6 / 8
2026-09-23	$3.64	$1,711,372,258	6 / 8
2026-09-24	$3.64	$1,711,372,258	6 / 8
2026-09-25	$3.64	$1,711,372,258	6 / 8
2026-09-26	$3.64	$1,711,372,258	6 / 8
2026-09-27	$3.64	$1,711,372,258	6 / 8
2026-09-28	$3.64	$1,711,372,258	6 / 8
2026-09-29	$3.64	$1,711,372,258	6 / 8
2026-09-30	$3.64	$1,711,372,258	6 / 8
2026-10-01	$3.64	$1,711,372,258	6 / 8
2026-10-02	$3.64	$1,711,372,258	6 / 8
2026-10-03	$3.64	$1,711,372,258	6 / 8
2026-10-04	$3.64	$1,711,372,258	6 / 8
2026-10-05	$3.64	$1,711,372,258	6 / 8
2026-10-06	$3.64	$1,711,372,258	6 / 8
2026-10-07	$3.64	$1,711,372,258	6 / 8
2026-10-08	$3.60	$1,708,366,957	6 / 8
2026-10-09	$3.60	$1,708,366,957	6 / 8
2026-10-10	$3.60	$1,708,366,957	6 / 8
2026-10-11	$3.60	$1,708,366,957	6 / 8
2026-10-12	$3.60	$1,708,366,957	6 / 8
2026-10-13	$3.60	$1,708,366,957	6 / 8
2026-10-14	$3.60	$1,708,366,957	6 / 8
2026-10-15	$3.60	$1,708,366,957	6 / 8
2026-10-16	$3.60	$1,708,366,957	6 / 8
2026-10-17	$3.60	$1,708,366,957	6 / 8
2026-10-18	$3.60	$1,708,366,957	6 / 8
2026-10-19	$3.60	$1,708,366,957	6 / 8
2026-10-20	$3.60	$1,708,366,957	6 / 8
2026-10-21	$3.60	$1,708,366,957	6 / 8
2026-10-22	$3.60	$1,708,366,957	6 / 8
2026-10-23	$3.57	$1,706,750,290	6 / 8
2026-10-24	$3.57	$1,706,750,290	6 / 8

Revenue and EPS estimates track expectations. They are not delivered results or like-for-like proof of a required annual path.

Compare required revenue and earnings

Analyst view

Monthly observations

Buy / Strong BuyHoldSell / Strong Sell

Exact monthly counts

Monthly rating snapshots · fmp. Missing snapshots are not zero.
Date	Buy*	Hold	Sell*
2026-05-01	5	6	1
2026-06-01	5	7	0
2026-07-01	4	8	0
2026-08-01	4	8	0
2026-09-01	4	8	0
2026-10-01	4	8	0

*Buy includes Strong Buy; Sell includes Strong Sell. Monthly counts describe the analyst mix, not the firms behind each recent action.

Latest: 4 Buy / Strong Buy · 8 Hold · 0 Sell / Strong Sell

0 upgrades0 downgrades1 maintains

Recent actions · Sep 25–Oct 24 · 1 recorded

Price-target changes

30 days

Individual price-target observations are unavailable.

0 raises · 0 cuts · 0 unchanged · 0 without a comparable prior

How this is measured

Sep 25, 2026–Oct 24, 2026. Each firm's latest positive target is paired only with its immediately prior positive target from the same provider, at most 180 days earlier. Unmatched observations have one dot; conflicting observations are not compared.

Outlook in Brief

The evidence, the remaining questions, and what comes next

What's improving

No recovery evidence is reported in the available driver assessments.

Still unresolved / key risks

Adjusted EBITDA growth in fiscal year 2026Direct metric needs a verified mapping
Growth in company-wide group booking revenuePublished status: Broken
Revenue growth in fiscal year 2026Published status: Broken

Next proof point

Nov 5, 2026

Look for updated results and guidance against the published targets, plus direct evidence for unresolved drivers.

Review earnings

Bottom line

3 of 3 published conditions remain under pressure or need verification. The next results need to address those conditions.

The dated weekly assessment and its assumptions are available in Read detailed Outlook.

Historical risk context

Observed price history; separate from operating scenarios

Price sensitivity

1.5%Typical daily move · historical

Downside history

-42.7%Maximum drawdown · trailing year

Read detailed Outlook Company context, assumptions & risks

United Parks & Resorts outlook in detail

The weekly editorial context below is a separate assessment from the dated monitor evidence above. Recovery observations do not automatically change the published thesis. Unverified outside influences are hypotheses, not measured driver evidence.

Updated Oct 24, 2026

What kind of bet this is

This is a loss-making, higher-risk business setup rather than a proven durable compounder. The multi-year view is in a watch state, with management execution and evidence of steadier results still important.

What's priced into United Parks & Resorts

PRKS is described as cheap versus peers, while the priced-in assessment is tagged justified and shows low fragility. The expectations gap is negative, so the valuation evidence does not point to a clear cushion if execution remains weak.

What the fundamentals likely do

For the near term, repeated earnings misses raise the risk of another miss, and a guidance cut on the next call would be a meaningful setback. Management has reiterated 2026 revenue and Adjusted EBITDA growth priorities, with progress in recent reported results and share repurchases, while advanced bookings are a mixed area.

What United Parks & Resorts hinges on

The multi-year thesis hinges on management sustaining growth priorities and improving execution after recent misses. Near-term guidance is a key swing factor. Sector bellwethers may also signal whether the broader Consumer Discretionary backdrop remains supportive or weakens.