Primerica (PRI)

Q: What's priced into Primerica (PRI) stock?

The valuation model describes PRI as cheap, but also shows a 2.64 premium versus peers and a negative expectations gap of 0.09. The market appears to give the business a durable premium, while the model confidence is low and no major fragility signals are present.

Q: What does the Primerica (PRI) outlook hinge on?

The next guidance update matters, since a cut could lead analysts to lower estimates. The rate environment is another swing factor: rate cuts may weigh on financial companies, while continued strength from sector peers could support momentum. Growth in investment products and steady term life results are important evidence for the multi-year thesis.

NYSEFinancialsInsurance - LifeSnapshot 2026-10-23

$274.43-3.95%

Close 2026-10-23 · 1-day change

Investment OutlookAs of Oct 24, 2026

What could strengthen or challenge Primerica’s outlook?

The long-term thesis, the evidence coming in, and the environment around it. Thesis dated Jul 8, 2026.

Higher potential upsideImproving expectations

Next-FY EPS estimate change · 30 days

+0.2%

+10% or more+5%0%−5%−10% or less

27.17 → 27.21 EPS · FY ending Dec 31, 2027 · 6 analysts

Higher risk of downsideWeakening expectations

One observable signal. This measures changing earnings expectations, not the probability of a gain or loss.

How this is measured

Change in the same fiscal period’s mean EPS estimate from Sep 24, 2026 to Oct 24, 2026: (new ÷ prior − 1). Contributor count changed from 6 to 6; this is not the number of analysts revising. Source: FMP consensus snapshots. The ±10% axis is a display range.

Measure / period	Management expectations	Analyst expectations
Quarter ending 2026-12-30
Revenue	—	912M
EPS	—	6.498
Annual ending 2026-12-31
Revenue	—	3.54B
EPS	—	25.266
Annual ending 2027-12-31
Revenue	—	3.73B
EPS	—	27.215

Management figures unavailable.

What the Thesis Depends On

4 published thesis conditions, with dated milestones shown separately.

Key Factor	Why It Matters	Current Status	Break Condition	Latest Evidence
Increase earnings per share to at least $6.33 in FY 2025	Earnings per share rose to $5.97 in Q1 2026 from $5.4 in Q2 2025.	Broken	EPS falls below $6.33 in FY 2025	Diluted EPS: $6.45 per share FY2026-Q2; GAAP. Published target: >=6.33 USD per share. Target period is not explicitly aligned with this observation. Source published Aug 6, 20266.45 USD/share · source valueSource reportLast status assessment Oct 24, 2026 Measurement source consolidated · GAAP FY2026-Q2 · Period ending Jun 30, 2026 Source: company_financial_results. Reference: b55bbefb-967c-47a8-8721-6d34b548041f. Source status: eligible. Compare required operating outcomes Compare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement.
Maintain net income growth above $178M annually	Net income improved to $190.1M in Q1 2026.	Intact	net income falls below $178M annually	Net income: $202.278M FY2026-Q2; GAAP. Published target: net income >= $178M annually. Target period is not explicitly aligned with this observation. Source published Aug 6, 2026202,278,000 USD · source valueSource reportLast status assessment Oct 24, 2026 Measurement source consolidated · GAAP FY2026-Q2 · Period ending Jun 30, 2026 Source: company_financial_results. Reference: b55bbefb-967c-47a8-8721-6d34b548041f. Source status: eligible. Compare required operating outcomes Compare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement.
Sustain revenue growth near 6% or higher	A primary condition in Primerica's published investment case. The stated target is >=6% YoY revenue growth.	Intact	YoY revenue growth falls below 6% next year	Revenue growth: 9.04% FY2026-Q2; GAAP. Published target: >=6% YoY revenue growth. Target period is not explicitly aligned with this observation. Source published Aug 6, 20269.041967 percent · calculatedSource reportLast status assessment Oct 24, 2026 Measurement source consolidated · GAAP FY2026-Q2 · Period ending Jun 30, 2026 Source: company_financial_results. Reference: b55bbefb-967c-47a8-8721-6d34b548041f. Source status: eligible. Compare required operating outcomes Compare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement.
Maintain PE ratio near or below 13x	A supporting condition in Primerica's published investment case. The stated target is PE <= 13.	Intact	PE ratio rises above 15 sustainably	P/E (TTM): 11.05x As of 2026-10-23; trailing twelve months. The target timing and basis require a separate assessment. Market data as of Oct 23, 202611.0524 ratio · calculatedLast status assessment Oct 24, 2026 Measurement source consolidated · TTM valuation Period ending Oct 23, 2026 Source: mart.stock_valuation_daily. Reference: PRI:2026-10-23. Source status: canonical calculation. Compare required operating outcomes Compare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement.

Stored thesis · Jul 8, 2026. Latest Evidence uses source-matched measurements where available, alongside the last thesis-monitor assessment. Source periods and assessment dates are shown separately. A new measurement does not automatically change the published status or verify an older target.

Incoming Evidence

Compare these dated observations with the operating requirements above

Expectations trend

Same fiscal period

FY2027 · fiscal year ending 2027-12-31 · fmp

FY2027 EPS$27.21

$26.77 → $27.21 · observed estimates

FY2027 revenueUnavailable

Unavailable → Unavailable · observed estimates

Exact estimates & source dates

One fiscal period and provider throughout. At least five contributors are required for each plotted metric; missing coverage stays a gap. Axes show the observed range. Counts measure coverage, not revisions.

FY2027 estimate observations · fmp
Snapshot	EPS	Revenue	EPS / revenue analysts
2026-07-24	$26.77	Unavailable	6 / 4
2026-07-25	$26.67	$3,672,989,330	8 / 5
2026-07-26	$26.73	Unavailable	8 / 4
2026-07-27	$26.77	Unavailable	6 / 4
2026-07-28	$26.73	Unavailable	8 / 4
2026-07-29	$26.77	Unavailable	6 / 4
2026-07-30	$26.77	Unavailable	6 / 4
2026-07-31	$26.82	Unavailable	6 / 3
2026-08-01	$26.82	Unavailable	6 / 3
2026-08-02	$26.82	Unavailable	6 / 3
2026-08-03	$26.82	Unavailable	6 / 3
2026-08-04	$26.82	Unavailable	6 / 3
2026-08-05	$26.82	Unavailable	6 / 3
2026-08-06	$26.82	Unavailable	6 / 3
2026-08-07	$26.82	Unavailable	6 / 3
2026-08-08	$26.82	Unavailable	6 / 3
2026-08-09	$26.82	Unavailable	6 / 3
2026-08-10	$26.79	Unavailable	8 / 4
2026-08-12	$26.92	Unavailable	8 / 4
2026-08-13	$26.92	Unavailable	8 / 4
2026-08-14	$26.82	Unavailable	6 / 3
2026-08-15	$26.82	Unavailable	6 / 3
2026-08-16	$26.82	Unavailable	6 / 3
2026-08-17	$26.82	Unavailable	6 / 3
2026-08-18	$26.82	Unavailable	6 / 4
2026-08-19	$26.82	Unavailable	6 / 4
2026-08-20	$27.01	Unavailable	6 / 4
2026-08-21	$27.01	Unavailable	6 / 4
2026-08-22	$27.01	Unavailable	6 / 4
2026-08-23	$27.05	Unavailable	6 / 4
2026-08-24	$27.12	Unavailable	6 / 4
2026-08-25	$27.12	Unavailable	6 / 4
2026-08-26	$27.12	Unavailable	6 / 4
2026-08-27	$27.12	Unavailable	6 / 4
2026-08-28	$27.12	Unavailable	6 / 4
2026-08-29	$27.17	Unavailable	6 / 4
2026-08-30	$27.17	Unavailable	6 / 4
2026-08-31	$27.17	Unavailable	6 / 4
2026-09-01	$27.17	Unavailable	6 / 4
2026-09-02	$27.17	Unavailable	6 / 4
2026-09-03	$27.17	Unavailable	6 / 4
2026-09-04	$27.17	Unavailable	6 / 4
2026-09-05	$27.17	Unavailable	6 / 4
2026-09-06	$27.17	Unavailable	6 / 4
2026-09-07	$27.17	Unavailable	6 / 4
2026-09-08	$27.17	Unavailable	6 / 4
2026-09-09	$27.17	Unavailable	6 / 4
2026-09-10	$27.17	Unavailable	6 / 4
2026-09-11	$27.17	Unavailable	6 / 4
2026-09-12	$27.17	Unavailable	6 / 4
2026-09-13	$27.17	Unavailable	6 / 4
2026-09-14	$27.17	Unavailable	6 / 4
2026-09-15	$27.17	Unavailable	6 / 4
2026-09-16	$27.17	Unavailable	6 / 4
2026-09-17	$27.17	Unavailable	6 / 4
2026-09-18	$27.17	Unavailable	6 / 4
2026-09-19	$27.17	Unavailable	6 / 4
2026-09-20	$27.17	Unavailable	6 / 4
2026-09-21	$27.17	Unavailable	6 / 4
2026-09-22	$27.17	Unavailable	6 / 4
2026-09-23	$27.17	Unavailable	6 / 4
2026-09-24	$27.17	Unavailable	6 / 4
2026-09-25	$27.17	Unavailable	6 / 4
2026-09-26	$27.17	Unavailable	6 / 4
2026-09-27	$27.17	Unavailable	6 / 4
2026-09-28	$27.17	Unavailable	6 / 4
2026-09-29	$27.17	Unavailable	6 / 4
2026-09-30	$27.17	Unavailable	6 / 4
2026-10-01	$27.17	Unavailable	6 / 4
2026-10-02	$27.17	Unavailable	6 / 4
2026-10-03	$27.17	Unavailable	6 / 4
2026-10-04	$27.17	Unavailable	6 / 4
2026-10-05	$27.17	Unavailable	6 / 4
2026-10-06	$27.17	Unavailable	6 / 4
2026-10-07	$27.17	Unavailable	6 / 4
2026-10-08	$27.17	Unavailable	6 / 4
2026-10-09	$27.18	Unavailable	6 / 4
2026-10-10	$27.18	Unavailable	6 / 4
2026-10-11	$27.18	Unavailable	6 / 4
2026-10-12	$27.18	Unavailable	6 / 4
2026-10-13	$27.21	Unavailable	6 / 4
2026-10-14	$27.21	Unavailable	6 / 4
2026-10-15	$27.21	Unavailable	6 / 4
2026-10-16	$27.21	Unavailable	6 / 4
2026-10-17	$27.21	Unavailable	6 / 4
2026-10-18	$27.21	Unavailable	6 / 4
2026-10-19	$27.21	Unavailable	6 / 4
2026-10-20	$27.21	Unavailable	6 / 4
2026-10-21	$27.21	Unavailable	6 / 4
2026-10-22	$27.21	Unavailable	6 / 4
2026-10-23	$27.21	Unavailable	6 / 4
2026-10-24	$27.21	Unavailable	6 / 4

Revenue and EPS estimates track expectations. They are not delivered results or like-for-like proof of a required annual path.

Compare required revenue and earnings

Analyst view

Monthly observations

Buy / Strong BuyHoldSell / Strong Sell

Exact monthly counts

Monthly rating snapshots · fmp. Missing snapshots are not zero.
Date	Buy*	Hold
2026-05-01	3	5
2026-06-01	3	5
2026-07-01	3	5
2026-08-01	3	6
2026-09-01	3	6
2026-10-01	2	6

*Buy includes Strong Buy; Sell includes Strong Sell. Monthly counts describe the analyst mix, not the firms behind each recent action.

Latest: 2 Buy / Strong Buy · 6 Hold · 0 Sell / Strong Sell

0 upgrades0 downgrades1 maintains

Recent actions · Sep 25–Oct 24 · 1 recorded

Price-target changes

30 days

Individual price-target observations are unavailable.

0 raises · 0 cuts · 0 unchanged · 0 without a comparable prior

How this is measured

Sep 25, 2026–Oct 24, 2026. Each firm's latest positive target is paired only with its immediately prior positive target from the same provider, at most 180 days earlier. Unmatched observations have one dot; conflicting observations are not compared.

Outlook in Brief

The evidence, the remaining questions, and what comes next

What's improving

No recovery evidence is reported in the available driver assessments.

Still unresolved / key risks

Increase earnings per share to at least $6.33 in FY 2025Published status: Broken
Maintain net income growth above $178M annuallyNet income: $202.278M
Sustain revenue growth near 6% or higherRevenue growth: 9.04%
Maintain PE ratio near or below 13xP/E (TTM): 11.05x

Next proof point

Nov 4, 2026

Look for updated results and guidance against the published targets, plus direct evidence for unresolved drivers.

Review earnings

Bottom line

4 of 4 published conditions remain under pressure or need verification. The next results need to address those conditions.

The dated weekly assessment and its assumptions are available in Read detailed Outlook.

Historical risk context

Observed price history; separate from operating scenarios

Price sensitivity

0.8%Typical daily move · historical

Downside history

-16.6%Maximum drawdown · trailing year

Read detailed Outlook Company context, assumptions & risks

Primerica outlook in detail

The weekly editorial context below is a separate assessment from the dated monitor evidence above. Recovery observations do not automatically change the published thesis. Unverified outside influences are hypotheses, not measured driver evidence.

Updated Oct 24, 2026

What kind of bet this is

PRI is a financial company with a steady, execution-led profile rather than a turnaround story. Its long-term thesis is intact, and the latest signal improved to favorable, though confidence in the evidence is medium.

What's priced into Primerica

The valuation model describes PRI as cheap, but also shows a 2.64 premium versus peers and a negative expectations gap of 0.09. The market appears to give the business a durable premium, while the model confidence is low and no major fragility signals are present.

What the fundamentals likely do

Over the multi-year view, management’s stated priorities are on track: investment product sales and client assets have grown, term life profitability has remained stable, and capital return commitments have been delivered. Recent performance is neutral overall, with an August earnings beat, but the near-term risk of a miss is described as low and the sector backdrop is a headwind.

What Primerica hinges on

The next guidance update matters, since a cut could lead analysts to lower estimates. The rate environment is another swing factor: rate cuts may weigh on financial companies, while continued strength from sector peers could support momentum. Growth in investment products and steady term life results are important evidence for the multi-year thesis.

Bottom line

The 1-to-3-year view is intact, with management execution and business growth offset by sector headwinds and sensitivity to guidance and rates. Not investment advice.

Not investment advice. Scores describe historical and current data; they are not forecasts of future returns. Consult a licensed advisor before making investment decisions.

Measure / period	Management expectations	Analyst expectations
Quarter ending 2026-12-30
Revenue	—	912M
EPS	—	6.498
Annual ending 2026-12-31
Revenue	—	3.54B
EPS	—	25.266
Annual ending 2027-12-31
Revenue	—	3.73B
EPS	—	27.215

Expectations trend

Same fiscal period

FY2027 · fiscal year ending 2027-12-31 · fmp

FY2027 EPS$27.21

$26.77 → $27.21 · observed estimates

FY2027 revenueUnavailable

Unavailable → Unavailable · observed estimates

Exact estimates & source dates

FY2027 estimate observations · fmp
Snapshot	EPS	Revenue	EPS / revenue analysts
2026-07-24	$26.77	Unavailable	6 / 4
2026-07-25	$26.67	$3,672,989,330	8 / 5
2026-07-26	$26.73	Unavailable	8 / 4
2026-07-27	$26.77	Unavailable	6 / 4
2026-07-28	$26.73	Unavailable	8 / 4
2026-07-29	$26.77	Unavailable	6 / 4
2026-07-30	$26.77	Unavailable	6 / 4
2026-07-31	$26.82	Unavailable	6 / 3
2026-08-01	$26.82	Unavailable	6 / 3
2026-08-02	$26.82	Unavailable	6 / 3
2026-08-03	$26.82	Unavailable	6 / 3
2026-08-04	$26.82	Unavailable	6 / 3
2026-08-05	$26.82	Unavailable	6 / 3
2026-08-06	$26.82	Unavailable	6 / 3
2026-08-07	$26.82	Unavailable	6 / 3
2026-08-08	$26.82	Unavailable	6 / 3
2026-08-09	$26.82	Unavailable	6 / 3
2026-08-10	$26.79	Unavailable	8 / 4
2026-08-12	$26.92	Unavailable	8 / 4
2026-08-13	$26.92	Unavailable	8 / 4
2026-08-14	$26.82	Unavailable	6 / 3
2026-08-15	$26.82	Unavailable	6 / 3
2026-08-16	$26.82	Unavailable	6 / 3
2026-08-17	$26.82	Unavailable	6 / 3
2026-08-18	$26.82	Unavailable	6 / 4
2026-08-19	$26.82	Unavailable	6 / 4
2026-08-20	$27.01	Unavailable	6 / 4
2026-08-21	$27.01	Unavailable	6 / 4
2026-08-22	$27.01	Unavailable	6 / 4
2026-08-23	$27.05	Unavailable	6 / 4
2026-08-24	$27.12	Unavailable	6 / 4
2026-08-25	$27.12	Unavailable	6 / 4
2026-08-26	$27.12	Unavailable	6 / 4
2026-08-27	$27.12	Unavailable	6 / 4
2026-08-28	$27.12	Unavailable	6 / 4
2026-08-29	$27.17	Unavailable	6 / 4
2026-08-30	$27.17	Unavailable	6 / 4
2026-08-31	$27.17	Unavailable	6 / 4
2026-09-01	$27.17	Unavailable	6 / 4
2026-09-02	$27.17	Unavailable	6 / 4
2026-09-03	$27.17	Unavailable	6 / 4
2026-09-04	$27.17	Unavailable	6 / 4
2026-09-05	$27.17	Unavailable	6 / 4
2026-09-06	$27.17	Unavailable	6 / 4
2026-09-07	$27.17	Unavailable	6 / 4
2026-09-08	$27.17	Unavailable	6 / 4
2026-09-09	$27.17	Unavailable	6 / 4
2026-09-10	$27.17	Unavailable	6 / 4
2026-09-11	$27.17	Unavailable	6 / 4
2026-09-12	$27.17	Unavailable	6 / 4
2026-09-13	$27.17	Unavailable	6 / 4
2026-09-14	$27.17	Unavailable	6 / 4
2026-09-15	$27.17	Unavailable	6 / 4
2026-09-16	$27.17	Unavailable	6 / 4
2026-09-17	$27.17	Unavailable	6 / 4
2026-09-18	$27.17	Unavailable	6 / 4
2026-09-19	$27.17	Unavailable	6 / 4
2026-09-20	$27.17	Unavailable	6 / 4
2026-09-21	$27.17	Unavailable	6 / 4
2026-09-22	$27.17	Unavailable	6 / 4
2026-09-23	$27.17	Unavailable	6 / 4
2026-09-24	$27.17	Unavailable	6 / 4
2026-09-25	$27.17	Unavailable	6 / 4
2026-09-26	$27.17	Unavailable	6 / 4
2026-09-27	$27.17	Unavailable	6 / 4
2026-09-28	$27.17	Unavailable	6 / 4
2026-09-29	$27.17	Unavailable	6 / 4
2026-09-30	$27.17	Unavailable	6 / 4
2026-10-01	$27.17	Unavailable	6 / 4
2026-10-02	$27.17	Unavailable	6 / 4
2026-10-03	$27.17	Unavailable	6 / 4
2026-10-04	$27.17	Unavailable	6 / 4
2026-10-05	$27.17	Unavailable	6 / 4
2026-10-06	$27.17	Unavailable	6 / 4
2026-10-07	$27.17	Unavailable	6 / 4
2026-10-08	$27.17	Unavailable	6 / 4
2026-10-09	$27.18	Unavailable	6 / 4
2026-10-10	$27.18	Unavailable	6 / 4
2026-10-11	$27.18	Unavailable	6 / 4
2026-10-12	$27.18	Unavailable	6 / 4
2026-10-13	$27.21	Unavailable	6 / 4
2026-10-14	$27.21	Unavailable	6 / 4
2026-10-15	$27.21	Unavailable	6 / 4
2026-10-16	$27.21	Unavailable	6 / 4
2026-10-17	$27.21	Unavailable	6 / 4
2026-10-18	$27.21	Unavailable	6 / 4
2026-10-19	$27.21	Unavailable	6 / 4
2026-10-20	$27.21	Unavailable	6 / 4
2026-10-21	$27.21	Unavailable	6 / 4
2026-10-22	$27.21	Unavailable	6 / 4
2026-10-23	$27.21	Unavailable	6 / 4
2026-10-24	$27.21	Unavailable	6 / 4

Revenue and EPS estimates track expectations. They are not delivered results or like-for-like proof of a required annual path.

Compare required revenue and earnings