Permian Resources (PR)
NYSEEnergyOil & Gas Exploration & ProductionSnapshot 2026-09-09
$23.62-0.13%
Close 2026-09-09 · 1-day change
NYSEEnergyOil & Gas Exploration & ProductionSnapshot 2026-09-09
Intact: The reason to own it still holds.
Permian Resources aims to grow oil production by 3.5 MBbls/d in 2026. Revenue rose from $1.17B in Q4 2025 to $1.39B in Q1 2026. The company raised its 2026 revenue guidance to $1.75B-$1.95B. Dividend per share increased to $0.16, showing commitment to shareholders.
The company missed Q1 earnings by 87%, signaling profit challenges. The recent sharp stock selloff reflects market doubts. Cash capex budget progress is mixed, risking capital discipline. Profit margins remain thin with gross margin guidance around $7.15-$8.15 per unit.
The stock trades about 38% above our fair value near $14, while analysts expect 19% revenue growth. Our fair value is 45% below the Street median, reflecting skepticism on growth and profitability. We see risk given recent earnings misses and market selloff.
Breaks if: Capex exceeds $1.95B or falls below $1.75B in FY26
Breaks if: Dividend per share falls below $0.16 in 2026
This is not a price target or investment advice.
A long-form read on the 1–3 year hold thesis. It updates when the weekly evidence changes.
This is a durable compounder with a focus on steady growth and shareholder returns. The current thesis state is intact, supported by strong recent financial performance and a commitment to operational targets.
The market seems to have priced in a neutral valuation, with the stock appearing cheap compared to peers. There is a slight expectations gap, indicating that the market may not fully anticipate the potential for continued strong performance.
Fundamentals are likely to remain strong, given the robust earnings quality and the company's commitment to disciplined capital expenditures and dividend growth. However, there is a moderate risk, as the industry has seen peers miss earnings expectations recently.
The long-term thesis hinges on several factors, including the ability to meet production targets and maintain guidance. Additionally, the performance of sector bellwethers and inflation trends will be crucial for PR's trajectory.
The most important moves since the prior daily snapshot.
Yes, our read has strengthened. The latest earnings beat supports a positive outlook. Record cash flow reinforces the disciplined capital expenditure budget of $1.9-$2.0 billion. There are no new threats impacting the thesis.
as of 2026-09-09
Review the evidence to watch, what would become a concern, and what would make it less concerning.
Not investment advice. Scores describe historical and current data; they are not forecasts of future returns. Consult a licensed advisor before making investment decisions.
Breaks if: Oil production growth falls below 2 MBbls/d increase in 2026
Breaks if: Gross margin falls below $7.15 per unit in FY26
Breaks if: Revenue falls below $1.75B in FY26
Overall, PR appears well-positioned for the next few years, with a focus on growth and shareholder returns. Not investment advice.