Permian Resources (PR)

NYSEEnergyOil & Gas Exploration & ProductionSnapshot 2026-10-23

$25.49+4.47%

Close 2026-10-23 · 1-day change

Investment OutlookAs of Oct 24, 2026

What could strengthen or challenge Permian Resources’s outlook?

The long-term thesis, the evidence coming in, and the environment around it. Thesis dated Jul 8, 2026.

Higher potential upsideImproving expectations

Next-FY EPS estimate change · 30 days

+10.3% · beyond scale

+10% or more+5%0%−5%−10% or less

2.19 → 2.42 EPS · FY ending Dec 31, 2027 · 14 analysts

Higher risk of downsideWeakening expectations

One observable signal. This measures changing earnings expectations, not the probability of a gain or loss.

How this is measured

Change in the same fiscal period’s mean EPS estimate from Sep 24, 2026 to Oct 24, 2026: (new ÷ prior − 1). Contributor count changed from 13 to 14; this is not the number of analysts revising. Source: FMP consensus snapshots. The ±10% axis is a display range.

Measure / period	Management expectations	Analyst expectations
FY 2026 · Q4
Revenue	—	1.89B
EPS	—	0.685
FY 2026 · Annual
Revenue	—	6.9B
EPS	—	2.341
Capital expenditure	$1.95B	—
FY 2027 · Annual
Revenue	—	7.08B
EPS	—	2.416

What the Thesis Depends On

5 published thesis conditions, with dated milestones shown separately.

Key Factor	Why It Matters	Current Status	Break Condition	Latest Evidence
Maintain cash capex budget between $1.75B and $1.95B in 2026	A supporting condition in Permian Resources's published investment case. The stated target is Capex between $1.75B and $1.95B in FY26.	Intact	Capex exceeds $1.95B or falls below $1.75B in FY26	Capital expenditures: $314.617M FY2026-Q2; GAAP. Published target: Capex between $1.75B and $1.95B in FY26. Target period is not explicitly aligned with this observation. Source published Aug 6, 2026314,617,000 USD · source valueSource reportLast status assessment Oct 24, 2026 Measurement source consolidated · GAAP FY2026-Q2 · Period ending Jun 30, 2026 Source: stock_quarterly_financials_fmp. Reference: 2026-Q2. Source status: unverified. Compare required operating outcomes Compare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement.
Increase quarterly base dividend to $0.16 per share	Dividend per share increased to $0.16, showing commitment to shareholders.	Intact	Dividend per share falls below $0.16 in 2026	Dividend per share: $0.15 per share FY2025-Q3; GAAP. Published target: Quarterly dividend >= $0.16 per share in 2026. Target period is not explicitly aligned with this observation. Source published Nov 6, 20250.15 USD/share · source valueSource reportLast status assessment Oct 24, 2026 Measurement source consolidated · GAAP FY2025-Q3 · Period ending Sep 30, 2025 Source: company_financial_results. Reference: 88a094a6-134d-4726-b546-8ceeda3c27a1. Source status: eligible. Compare required operating outcomes Compare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement. Management context Stated as a priority in 3 of last 3 quarters. The quarterly base dividend was increased from $0.15 in 2025-Q4 to $0.16 in 2026-Q1 and sustained at $0.16 in 2026-Q2. This reflects a consistent commitment to shareholder returns and a stable trajectory. Delivery assessment Oct 24, 2026
Increase oil production by 3.5 MBbls/d to 192.5 MBbls/d in 2026	Permian Resources aims to grow oil production by 3.5 MBbls/d in 2026.	Intact	Oil production growth falls below 2 MBbls/d increase in 2026	Direct metric needs a verified mapping The published measure or accounting basis is not supported by an exact source binding. Source date unavailableLast status assessment Oct 24, 2026Compare required operating outcomes Compare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement.
Maintain gross margin near $7.15-$8.15 per unit in 2026	A supporting condition in Permian Resources's published investment case. The stated target is Gross margin >= $7.15 per unit in FY26.	Intact	Gross margin falls below $7.15 per unit in FY26	Direct metric needs a verified mapping The published measure or accounting basis is not supported by an exact source binding. Source date unavailableLast status assessment Oct 24, 2026Compare required operating outcomes Compare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement.
Achieve revenue between $1.75B and $1.95B in 2026	A primary condition in Permian Resources's published investment case. The stated target is Revenue >= $1.75B in FY26.	Intact	Revenue falls below $1.75B in FY26	Revenue: $1.858B FY2026-Q2; GAAP. Published target: Revenue >= $1.75B in FY26. Target period is not explicitly aligned with this observation. Source published Aug 6, 20261,858,035,000 USD · source valueSource reportLast status assessment Oct 24, 2026 Measurement source consolidated · GAAP FY2026-Q2 · Period ending Jun 30, 2026 Source: company_financial_results. Reference: e3503755-31a3-497f-9219-a09134e4a5ec. Source status: eligible. Compare required operating outcomes Compare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement.

Stored thesis · Jul 8, 2026. Latest Evidence uses source-matched measurements where available, alongside the last thesis-monitor assessment. Source periods and assessment dates are shown separately. A new measurement does not automatically change the published status or verify an older target.

Incoming Evidence

Compare these dated observations with the operating requirements above

Expectations trend

Same fiscal period

FY2027 · fiscal year ending 2027-12-31 · fmp

FY2027 EPS$2.42

$2.02 → $2.42 · observed estimates

FY2027 revenue$7.08B

$6.49B → $7.08B · observed estimates

Exact estimates & source dates

One fiscal period and provider throughout. At least five contributors are required for each plotted metric; missing coverage stays a gap. Axes show the observed range. Counts measure coverage, not revisions.

FY2027 estimate observations · fmp
Snapshot	EPS	Revenue	EPS / revenue analysts
2026-07-24	$2.02	$6,489,739,462	13 / 8
2026-07-25	$2.07	$6,502,319,150	18 / 9
2026-07-26	$2.07	$6,502,319,150	18 / 9
2026-07-27	$2.07	$6,502,319,150	18 / 9
2026-07-28	$2.02	$6,489,739,462	13 / 8
2026-07-29	$2.08	$6,494,466,930	18 / 9
2026-07-30	$2.02	$6,485,813,351	12 / 8
2026-07-31	$2.02	$6,485,813,351	12 / 8
2026-08-01	$2.02	$6,485,813,351	12 / 8
2026-08-02	$2.02	$6,485,813,351	12 / 8
2026-08-03	$2.02	$6,485,813,351	12 / 8
2026-08-04	$2.02	$6,485,813,351	12 / 8
2026-08-05	$2.02	$6,485,813,351	12 / 8
2026-08-06	$2.02	$6,485,813,351	12 / 8
2026-08-07	$2.02	$6,488,202,240	12 / 8
2026-08-08	$2.11	$6,526,630,240	18 / 10
2026-08-09	$2.02	$6,488,202,240	12 / 8
2026-08-10	$2.02	$6,488,202,240	12 / 8
2026-08-12	$2.15	$6,563,425,380	18 / 10
2026-08-13	$2.02	$6,488,202,240	12 / 8
2026-08-14	$2.02	$6,488,202,240	12 / 8
2026-08-15	$2.02	$6,488,202,240	12 / 8
2026-08-16	$2.02	$6,488,202,240	12 / 8
2026-08-17	$2.02	$6,488,202,240	12 / 8
2026-08-18	$2.02	$6,488,202,240	12 / 8
2026-08-19	$2.02	$6,488,202,240	12 / 8
2026-08-20	$2.12	$6,637,530,394	13 / 7
2026-08-21	$2.12	$6,637,530,394	13 / 7
2026-08-22	$2.13	$6,658,530,394	13 / 7
2026-08-23	$2.13	$6,658,530,394	13 / 7
2026-08-24	$2.13	$6,658,530,394	13 / 7
2026-08-25	$2.13	$6,658,530,394	13 / 7
2026-08-26	$2.13	$6,667,474,838	13 / 7
2026-08-27	$2.13	$6,667,474,838	13 / 7
2026-08-28	$2.13	$6,667,474,838	13 / 7
2026-08-29	$2.17	$6,712,668,394	13 / 7
2026-08-30	$2.17	$6,712,668,394	13 / 7
2026-08-31	$2.17	$6,712,668,394	13 / 7
2026-09-01	$2.17	$6,712,668,394	13 / 7
2026-09-02	$2.17	$6,712,668,394	13 / 7
2026-09-03	$2.17	$6,712,668,394	13 / 7
2026-09-04	$2.18	$6,753,249,005	13 / 7
2026-09-05	$2.18	$6,753,249,005	13 / 8
2026-09-06	$2.18	$6,753,249,005	14 / 8
2026-09-07	$2.18	$6,753,249,005	14 / 8
2026-09-08	$2.18	$6,753,249,005	14 / 8
2026-09-09	$2.18	$6,753,249,005	14 / 8
2026-09-10	$2.18	$6,753,249,005	14 / 8
2026-09-11	$2.14	$6,753,249,005	14 / 8
2026-09-12	$2.14	$6,753,249,005	13 / 8
2026-09-13	$2.14	$6,753,249,005	13 / 8
2026-09-14	$2.14	$6,753,249,005	13 / 8
2026-09-15	$2.18	$6,753,249,005	13 / 8
2026-09-16	$2.18	$6,776,091,110	13 / 8
2026-09-17	$2.18	$6,776,091,110	13 / 8
2026-09-18	$2.18	$6,776,091,110	13 / 8
2026-09-19	$2.18	$6,776,091,110	13 / 8
2026-09-20	$2.18	$6,776,091,110	13 / 8
2026-09-21	$2.18	$6,776,091,110	13 / 8
2026-09-22	$2.18	$6,776,091,110	13 / 8
2026-09-23	$2.18	$6,776,091,110	13 / 8
2026-09-24	$2.19	$6,776,091,110	13 / 8
2026-09-25	$2.19	$6,776,091,110	13 / 8
2026-09-26	$2.19	$6,781,929,505	14 / 9
2026-09-27	$2.19	$6,781,929,505	14 / 9
2026-09-28	$2.19	$6,781,929,505	14 / 9
2026-09-29	$2.19	$6,781,929,505	14 / 9
2026-09-30	$2.19	$6,781,929,505	14 / 9
2026-10-01	$2.19	$6,781,929,505	14 / 9
2026-10-02	$2.20	$6,805,179,727	14 / 9
2026-10-03	$2.20	$6,805,179,727	14 / 9
2026-10-04	$2.23	$6,808,754,171	14 / 9
2026-10-05	$2.23	$6,808,754,171	14 / 9
2026-10-06	$2.23	$6,808,754,171	14 / 9
2026-10-07	$2.23	$6,808,754,171	14 / 9
2026-10-08	$2.23	$6,808,754,171	14 / 9
2026-10-09	$2.23	$6,808,754,171	14 / 9
2026-10-10	$2.26	$6,864,235,283	13 / 9
2026-10-11	$2.26	$6,864,235,283	13 / 9
2026-10-12	$2.26	$6,864,235,283	13 / 9
2026-10-13	$2.28	$6,866,924,425	13 / 9
2026-10-14	$2.30	$6,888,539,685	13 / 9
2026-10-15	$2.33	$6,939,736,740	13 / 9
2026-10-16	$2.38	$6,984,144,960	13 / 9
2026-10-17	$2.38	$6,984,144,960	13 / 9
2026-10-18	$2.38	$6,984,144,960	14 / 9
2026-10-19	$2.38	$6,984,144,960	14 / 9
2026-10-20	$2.40	$7,036,355,486	14 / 9
2026-10-21	$2.42	$7,053,553,697	14 / 9
2026-10-22	$2.42	$7,053,553,697	14 / 9
2026-10-23	$2.42	$7,053,553,697	14 / 9
2026-10-24	$2.42	$7,079,516,855	14 / 9

Revenue and EPS estimates track expectations. They are not delivered results or like-for-like proof of a required annual path.

Compare required revenue and earnings

Analyst view

Monthly observations

Buy / Strong BuyHoldSell / Strong Sell

Exact monthly counts

Monthly rating snapshots · fmp. Missing snapshots are not zero.
Date	Buy*	Hold
2026-05-01	18	4
2026-06-01	20	3
2026-07-01	19	2
2026-08-01	19	2
2026-09-01	21	2
2026-10-01	22	2

*Buy includes Strong Buy; Sell includes Strong Sell. Monthly counts describe the analyst mix, not the firms behind each recent action.

Latest: 22 Buy / Strong Buy · 2 Hold · 0 Sell / Strong Sell

0 upgrades0 downgrades5 maintains

Recent actions · Sep 25–Oct 24 · 5 recorded

Price-target changes

30 days

○ Previous · ● Latest · common dollar scale

SusquehannaOct 20

$30.00New observation · no comparable prior

Morgan StanleyOct 15 · prior Jun 29

$24.00 → $27.00+12.5%

Wells FargoOct 14 · prior May 25

$26.00 → $28.00+7.7%

ScotiabankOct 14

$29.00New observation · no comparable prior

Truist FinancialOct 12 · prior Aug 10

$24.00 → $28.00+16.7%

$0$16.50$33.00

3 raises · 0 cuts · 0 unchanged · 2 without a comparable prior

How this is measured

Sep 25, 2026–Oct 24, 2026. Each firm's latest positive target is paired only with its immediately prior positive target from the same provider, at most 180 days earlier. Unmatched observations have one dot; conflicting observations are not compared.

Outlook in Brief

The evidence, the remaining questions, and what comes next

What's improving

No recovery evidence is reported in the available driver assessments.

Still unresolved / key risks

Maintain cash capex budget between $1.75B and $1.95B in 2026Capital expenditures: $314.617M
Increase quarterly base dividend to $0.16 per shareDividend per share: $0.15 per share
Increase oil production by 3.5 MBbls/d to 192.5 MBbls/d in 2026Direct metric needs a verified mapping
Maintain gross margin near $7.15-$8.15 per unit in 2026Direct metric needs a verified mapping
Achieve revenue between $1.75B and $1.95B in 2026Revenue: $1.858B

Next proof point

Nov 4, 2026

Look for updated results and guidance against the published targets, plus direct evidence for unresolved drivers.

Review earnings

Bottom line

5 of 5 published conditions remain under pressure or need verification. The next results need to address those conditions.

The dated weekly assessment and its assumptions are available in Read detailed Outlook.

Historical risk context

Observed price history; separate from operating scenarios

Price sensitivity

1.5%Typical daily move · historical

Downside history

-20.4%Maximum drawdown · trailing year

Read detailed Outlook Company context, assumptions & risks

Permian Resources outlook in detail

The weekly editorial context below is a separate assessment from the dated monitor evidence above. Recovery observations do not automatically change the published thesis. Unverified outside influences are hypotheses, not measured driver evidence.

Updated Oct 24, 2026

What kind of bet this is

PR is an energy-sector business with a multi-year view that depends on execution and the sector backdrop. Recent financial performance is strong and earnings quality is robust, while management execution is mixed on production targets and on track on spending and dividends.

What's priced into Permian Resources

The evidence describes PR as cheap versus peers, while the expectations gap is slightly negative, suggesting expectations are not clearly undemanding. The priced-in assessment is justified, with low fragility because the identified concern is a turbulent sector regime rather than a combination of expensive valuation, weak fundamentals, and turbulence.

What the fundamentals likely do

Near-term results have been strong, with earnings beats in May and August 2026, and second-quarter oil production close to the raised 2026 target. Spending remains within the stated budget and the quarterly dividend has been maintained at its increased level. Near-term miss risk is described as low, though prior deep misses and a downward trend in earnings surprises warrant attention.

What Permian Resources hinges on

The multi-year thesis depends on PR sustaining production growth while keeping capital spending disciplined. A guidance cut on the next call would be a meaningful negative, while continued earnings strength and higher guidance from sector bellwethers could support the energy-sector backdrop. Weaker results or lower guidance from those bellwethers could remove that support.