Post Holdings (POST)

NYSEConsumer StaplesPackaged FoodsSnapshot 2026-10-23

$80.56-1.76%

Close 2026-10-23 · 1-day change

Investment OutlookAs of Oct 24, 2026

What could strengthen or challenge Post Holdings’s outlook?

The long-term thesis, the evidence coming in, and the environment around it. Thesis dated Jul 8, 2026.

Higher potential upsideImproving expectations

Next-FY EPS estimate change · 30 days

Comparable estimates unavailable

+10% or more+5%0%−5%−10% or less

A matching fiscal period and sufficient coverage are required.

Higher risk of downsideWeakening expectations

One observable signal. This measures changing earnings expectations, not the probability of a gain or loss.

How this is measured

The calculation requires same-period, same-provider snapshots, positive EPS, at least five analysts and a baseline within three days of the requested lookback.

Measure / period	Management expectations	Analyst expectations
FY 2027 · Q1
Revenue	—	2.02B
EPS	—	1.67
FY 2026 · Annual
EBITDA	$1.56B–$1.57Bnon-GAAP	—
FY 2027 · Annual
Revenue	—	7.96B
EPS	—	7.179
FY 2028 · Annual
Revenue	—	8.03B
EPS	—	8.598

What the Thesis Depends On

Three published thesis conditions, with dated milestones shown separately.

Key Factor	Why It Matters	Current Status	Break Condition	Latest Evidence
Effective capital allocation with share buybacks and controlled capex	It plans $370 million in capex next quarter and a $600 million share buyback.	Intact	Capex exceeds $390M or buybacks are suspended	Capital expenditures: $82.1M FY2026-Q3; GAAP. Published target: Capex ~$370M and $600M share buyback authorization in FY26-Q3. Target period is not explicitly aligned with this observation. Source published Aug 6, 202682,100,000 USD · source valueSource reportLast status assessment Oct 24, 2026 Measurement source consolidated · GAAP FY2026-Q3 · Period ending Jun 30, 2026 Source: stock_quarterly_financials_fmp. Reference: 2026-Q3. Source status: unverified. Compare required operating outcomes Compare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement.
Maintain or improve profit margins	Profit margins and net income improved to $81.9 million in Q2 2026.	Intact	EPS falls below $7.71 in FY26	Direct metric needs a verified mapping The published measure or accounting basis is not supported by an exact source binding. Source date unavailableLast status assessment Oct 24, 2026Compare required operating outcomes Compare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement.
Revenue growth at or above consensus	A primary condition in Post Holdings's published investment case. The stated target is >= -1.8% YoY.	Broken	YoY revenue growth falls below -1.8% in FY27	Direct metric needs a verified mapping The published measure or accounting basis is not supported by an exact source binding. Source date unavailableLast status assessment Oct 24, 2026Compare required operating outcomes Compare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement.

Stored thesis · Jul 8, 2026. Latest Evidence uses source-matched measurements where available, alongside the last thesis-monitor assessment. Source periods and assessment dates are shown separately. A new measurement does not automatically change the published status or verify an older target.

Incoming Evidence

Compare these dated observations with the operating requirements above

Expectations trend

Same fiscal period

FY2028 · fiscal year ending 2028-09-30 · fmp

FY2028 EPS: comparable history unavailable.

FY2028 revenue$8.03B

$8.03B → $8.03B · observed estimates

Exact estimates & source dates

One fiscal period and provider throughout. At least five contributors are required for each plotted metric; missing coverage stays a gap. Axes show the observed range. Counts measure coverage, not revisions.

FY2028 estimate observations · fmp
Snapshot	EPS	Revenue	EPS / revenue analysts
2026-10-01	Unavailable	$8,031,600,000	3 / 5
2026-10-02	Unavailable	$8,031,600,000	3 / 5
2026-10-03	Unavailable	$8,031,600,000	3 / 5
2026-10-04	Unavailable	$8,031,600,000	3 / 5
2026-10-05	Unavailable	$8,031,600,000	3 / 5
2026-10-06	Unavailable	$8,027,825,000	3 / 5
2026-10-07	Unavailable	Unavailable	2 / 4
2026-10-08	Unavailable	Unavailable	2 / 4
2026-10-09	Unavailable	$8,027,825,000	3 / 5
2026-10-10	Unavailable	$8,027,825,000	3 / 5
2026-10-11	Unavailable	$8,027,825,000	3 / 5
2026-10-12	Unavailable	$8,027,825,000	3 / 5
2026-10-13	Unavailable	$8,027,825,000	3 / 5
2026-10-14	Unavailable	$8,027,825,000	3 / 5
2026-10-15	Unavailable	$8,027,825,000	3 / 5
2026-10-16	Unavailable	$8,027,825,000	3 / 5
2026-10-17	Unavailable	$8,027,825,000	3 / 5
2026-10-18	Unavailable	$8,027,825,000	3 / 5
2026-10-19	Unavailable	$8,027,825,000	3 / 5
2026-10-20	Unavailable	$8,027,825,000	3 / 5
2026-10-21	Unavailable	$8,027,825,000	3 / 5
2026-10-22	Unavailable	$8,027,825,000	3 / 5
2026-10-23	Unavailable	$8,027,825,000	3 / 5
2026-10-24	Unavailable	$8,027,825,000	3 / 5

Revenue and EPS estimates track expectations. They are not delivered results or like-for-like proof of a required annual path.

Compare required revenue and earnings

Analyst view

Monthly observations

Buy / Strong BuyHoldSell / Strong Sell

Exact monthly counts

Monthly rating snapshots · fmp. Missing snapshots are not zero.
Date	Buy*	Hold
2026-05-01	6	2
2026-06-01	5	2
2026-07-01	5	2
2026-08-01	5	2
2026-09-01	5	2
2026-10-01	5	2

*Buy includes Strong Buy; Sell includes Strong Sell. Monthly counts describe the analyst mix, not the firms behind each recent action.

Latest: 5 Buy / Strong Buy · 2 Hold · 0 Sell / Strong Sell

0 upgrades0 downgrades4 maintains

Recent actions · Sep 25–Oct 24 · 4 recorded

Price-target changes

30 days

○ Previous · ● Latest · common dollar scale

BarclaysOct 16 · prior Aug 10

$95.00 → $88.00-7.4%

Stifel NicolausOct 15 · prior Aug 7

$125.00 → $100.00-20.0%

$0$68.75$137.50

0 raises · 2 cuts · 0 unchanged · 0 without a comparable prior

How this is measured

Sep 25, 2026–Oct 24, 2026. Each firm's latest positive target is paired only with its immediately prior positive target from the same provider, at most 180 days earlier. Unmatched observations have one dot; conflicting observations are not compared.

Outlook in Brief

The evidence, the remaining questions, and what comes next

What's improving

No recovery evidence is reported in the available driver assessments.

Still unresolved / key risks

Effective capital allocation with share buybacks and controlled capexCapital expenditures: $82.1M
Maintain or improve profit marginsDirect metric needs a verified mapping
Revenue growth at or above consensusPublished status: Broken

Next proof point

Nov 19, 2026

Look for updated results and guidance against the published targets, plus direct evidence for unresolved drivers.

Review earnings

Bottom line

3 of 3 published conditions remain under pressure or need verification. The next results need to address those conditions.

The dated weekly assessment and its assumptions are available in Read detailed Outlook.

Historical risk context

Observed price history; separate from operating scenarios

Price sensitivity

1.3%Typical daily move · historical

Downside history

-36.7%Maximum drawdown · trailing year

Read detailed Outlook Company context, assumptions & risks

Post Holdings outlook in detail

The weekly editorial context below is a separate assessment from the dated monitor evidence above. Recovery observations do not automatically change the published thesis. Unverified outside influences are hypotheses, not measured driver evidence.

Updated Oct 24, 2026

What kind of bet this is

POST is a consumer staples business with a multi-year thesis based on robust earnings quality and continued delivery on management’s financial priorities. The thesis is currently intact, but management is rated volatile and company quality recently declined.

What's priced into Post Holdings

POST is described as cheap versus peers, while the expectations gap is negative and the priced-in assessment is justified with low fragility. This suggests the market’s assumptions are not especially demanding, though confidence in the valuation assessment is medium.

What the fundamentals likely do

Through the first nine months of fiscal 2026, adjusted EBITDA rose from the prior-year period, and management narrowed its full-year guidance range. Share repurchases are on track, while the CEO transition is recent and remains an area of uncertainty. Near-term miss risk is rated quiet, but the evidence notes a history of a deep miss and a high-miss-rate industry.

What Post Holdings hinges on

The multi-year view depends on POST delivering its fiscal 2026 adjusted EBITDA guidance and managing the leadership transition effectively. A guidance cut or continued weakness in jobs data would be unfavorable; continued earnings strength and higher guidance from sector peers would support the sector backdrop.

Bottom line

For the next 1 to 3 years, the thesis remains intact, with earnings progress and peer-relative valuation balanced against lower company quality and management uncertainty. Not investment advice.

Not investment advice. Scores describe historical and current data; they are not forecasts of future returns. Consult a licensed advisor before making investment decisions.