Post Holdings (POST)
NYSEConsumer StaplesPackaged FoodsSnapshot 2026-09-09
$81.07-1.57%
Close 2026-09-09 · 1-day change
NYSEConsumer StaplesPackaged FoodsSnapshot 2026-09-09
Broken: Primary pillar broken — Revenue growth at or above consensus: FY27 rev est -2.6% vs -1.8% target.
Post Holdings beats earnings with 10.9% surprise and 4.7% revenue growth. The company has a strong free cash flow yield of 11%. It plans $370 million in capex next quarter and a $600 million share buyback. Profit margins and net income improved to $81.9 million in Q2 2026.
Revenue growth is expected to decline about 2% next year. The sector faces headwinds and the stock is down 17% from its high. Debt from recent senior notes could pressure cash flow. Management is neutral and must address earnings misses.
The market prices in about -2% revenue growth and a 48% discount to our fair value near $169. We see upside if Post sustains growth and margin gains, but risks remain from sector headwinds and debt.
Breaks if: Capex exceeds $390M or buybacks are suspended
Breaks if: EPS falls below $7.71 in FY26
This is not a price target or investment advice.
A long-form read on the 1–3 year hold thesis. It updates when the weekly evidence changes.
This investment represents a durable compounder in the Consumer Staples sector. The current thesis state is intact, supported by recent strong financial performance and a commitment to share repurchases.
The market currently prices POST as cheap compared to its peers, with a notable expectations gap. This suggests that investors may have low expectations for future growth, which could provide room for positive surprises.
Fundamentals are likely to show steady growth in Adjusted EBITDA, as management is on track to meet their guidance for fiscal 2026. However, there is a moderate risk due to the recent volatility in management and the potential for sector challenges.
The thesis hinges on several factors, including the management's ability to navigate the CEO transition and deliver on financial targets. Additionally, inflation trends and performance from sector peers will be critical in shaping future expectations.
The most important moves since the prior daily snapshot.
Yes, our read has strengthened. The latest earnings beat supports the growth objective for EBITDA. The company reported Q2 revenue of $1.95 billion and a net profit of $63.4 million. Negative insider sentiment is a concern due to increased selling by company insiders.
as of 2026-09-09
Review the evidence to watch, what would become a concern, and what would make it less concerning.
Not investment advice. Scores describe historical and current data; they are not forecasts of future returns. Consult a licensed advisor before making investment decisions.
Post Holdings aims to address the recent earnings miss and improve financial performance.
Breaks if: YoY revenue growth falls below -1.8% in FY27
Post Holdings aims to address the recent earnings miss and improve financial performance.
Overall, POST's long-term outlook remains stable, but it faces challenges that could impact its trajectory. Not investment advice.