Pinnacle Financial Partners (PNFP)

NYSEFinancialsBanks - RegionalSnapshot 2026-10-23

$100.35-0.11%

Close 2026-10-23 · 1-day change

Investment OutlookAs of Oct 24, 2026

What could strengthen or challenge Pinnacle Financial Partners’s outlook?

The long-term thesis, the evidence coming in, and the environment around it. Thesis dated Jul 8, 2026.

Higher potential upsideImproving expectations

Next-FY EPS estimate change · 30 days

+1.1%

+10% or more+5%0%−5%−10% or less

11.44 → 11.57 EPS · FY ending Dec 31, 2027 · 16 analysts

Higher risk of downsideWeakening expectations

One observable signal. This measures changing earnings expectations, not the probability of a gain or loss.

How this is measured

Change in the same fiscal period’s mean EPS estimate from Sep 24, 2026 to Oct 24, 2026: (new ÷ prior − 1). Contributor count changed from 15 to 16; this is not the number of analysts revising. Source: FMP consensus snapshots. The ±10% axis is a display range.

Measure / period	Management expectations	Analyst expectations
Quarter ending 2026-12-30
Revenue	—	1.32B
EPS	—	2.73
Quarter ending 2027-03-31
Revenue	—	1.32B
EPS	—	2.683
Annual ending 2026-12-31
Revenue	—	5.07B
EPS	—	10.257
Annual ending 2027-12-31
Revenue	—	5.5B
EPS	—	11.568

Management figures unavailable.

What the Thesis Depends On

4 published thesis conditions, with dated milestones shown separately.

Key Factor	Why It Matters	Current Status	Break Condition	Latest Evidence
Use $750 million senior notes to support growth	The bank issued $750 million in notes to support growth.	Intact	Capital raised fails to support growth	Direct metric needs a verified mapping The published measure or accounting basis is not supported by an exact source binding. Source date unavailableLast status assessment Oct 24, 2026Compare required operating outcomes Compare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement.
EPS reaches at least $11.63 in fiscal 2027	A primary condition in Pinnacle Financial Partners's published investment case. The stated target is >=11.63 USD_PER_SHARE.	Under Pressure	EPS falls below $10 in FY27	Diluted EPS: $2.07 per share FY2026-Q2; GAAP. Published target: >=11.63 USD_PER_SHARE. Target period is not explicitly aligned with this observation. Source published Aug 4, 20262.07 USD/share · source valueSource reportLast status assessment Oct 24, 2026 Measurement source consolidated · GAAP FY2026-Q2 · Period ending Jun 30, 2026 Source: company_financial_results. Reference: c7dd2472-0bf4-4a00-8eca-38e6911acf87. Source status: eligible. Compare required operating outcomes Compare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement.
Complete merger with Synovus successfully	A primary condition in Pinnacle Financial Partners's published investment case. The stated target is merger finalized and integrated.	Intact	Merger fails or integration stalls	Qualitative: Integration advancing (Q2 loan growth, leadership extension) Q2 2026 news highlights broad-based loan growth and leadership extensions, strongly reinforcing successful Synovus integration and post-merger growth. Context reviewed through Oct 23, 2026Last status assessment Oct 24, 2026Compare required operating outcomes Compare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement.
Expand hiring of revenue producers post-merger	Hiring more revenue producers will help grow sales.	Intact	Hiring slows or fails to increase revenue	Qualitative condition This condition has no defined numerical measure. Context reviewed through Oct 23, 2026Last status assessment Oct 24, 2026Compare required operating outcomes Compare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement.

Stored thesis · Jul 8, 2026. Latest Evidence uses source-matched measurements where available, alongside the last thesis-monitor assessment. Source periods and assessment dates are shown separately. A new measurement does not automatically change the published status or verify an older target.

Incoming Evidence

Compare these dated observations with the operating requirements above

Expectations trend

Same fiscal period

FY2027 · fiscal year ending 2027-12-31 · fmp

FY2027 EPS$11.57

$11.66 → $11.57 · observed estimates

FY2027 revenue$5.50B

$5.47B → $5.50B · observed estimates

Exact estimates & source dates

One fiscal period and provider throughout. At least five contributors are required for each plotted metric; missing coverage stays a gap. Axes show the observed range. Counts measure coverage, not revisions.

FY2027 estimate observations · fmp
Snapshot	EPS	Revenue	EPS / revenue analysts
2026-07-24	$11.66	$5,465,526,430	19 / 17
2026-07-25	$11.52	$5,459,978,430	19 / 17
2026-07-26	$11.52	$5,459,978,430	19 / 17
2026-07-27	$11.50	$5,451,597,196	13 / 13
2026-07-28	$11.52	$5,458,672,350	19 / 17
2026-07-29	$11.43	$5,452,747,572	13 / 13
2026-07-30	$11.43	$5,452,747,572	13 / 13
2026-07-31	$11.45	$5,459,806,380	19 / 17
2026-08-01	$11.43	$5,452,747,572	13 / 13
2026-08-02	$11.45	$5,459,806,380	19 / 17
2026-08-03	$11.45	$5,459,806,380	19 / 17
2026-08-04	$11.43	$5,452,747,572	14 / 13
2026-08-05	$11.43	$5,452,747,572	14 / 13
2026-08-06	$11.43	$5,452,747,572	14 / 13
2026-08-07	$11.43	$5,453,159,761	14 / 13
2026-08-08	$11.45	$5,460,229,910	19 / 17
2026-08-09	$11.45	$5,460,229,910	19 / 17
2026-08-10	$11.45	$5,460,229,910	19 / 17
2026-08-12	$11.43	$5,453,159,761	14 / 13
2026-08-13	$11.43	$5,453,159,761	14 / 13
2026-08-14	$11.43	$5,453,159,761	14 / 13
2026-08-15	$11.43	$5,453,159,761	14 / 13
2026-08-16	$11.43	$5,453,159,761	14 / 13
2026-08-17	$11.43	$5,453,159,761	14 / 13
2026-08-18	$11.43	$5,453,159,761	14 / 13
2026-08-19	$11.43	$5,453,159,761	14 / 13
2026-08-20	$11.43	$5,452,511,572	14 / 13
2026-08-21	$11.43	$5,452,511,572	14 / 13
2026-08-22	$11.43	$5,452,511,572	14 / 13
2026-08-23	$11.43	$5,452,511,572	14 / 13
2026-08-24	$11.43	$5,452,511,572	14 / 13
2026-08-25	$11.43	$5,452,511,572	14 / 13
2026-08-26	$11.43	$5,452,511,572	14 / 13
2026-08-27	$11.43	$5,452,511,572	14 / 13
2026-08-28	$11.43	$5,452,511,572	14 / 13
2026-08-29	$11.43	$5,452,511,572	14 / 13
2026-08-30	$11.43	$5,452,511,572	14 / 13
2026-08-31	$11.43	$5,452,511,572	14 / 13
2026-09-01	$11.43	$5,452,511,572	14 / 13
2026-09-02	$11.43	$5,452,511,572	14 / 13
2026-09-03	$11.43	$5,452,511,572	14 / 13
2026-09-04	$11.43	$5,452,511,572	14 / 13
2026-09-05	$11.43	$5,452,511,572	14 / 13
2026-09-06	$11.43	$5,452,511,572	14 / 13
2026-09-07	$11.43	$5,452,511,572	14 / 13
2026-09-08	$11.43	$5,452,511,572	14 / 13
2026-09-09	$11.46	$5,458,718,831	14 / 13
2026-09-10	$11.47	$5,459,451,764	14 / 14
2026-09-11	$11.47	$5,459,451,764	14 / 14
2026-09-12	$11.47	$5,459,451,764	15 / 13
2026-09-13	$11.47	$5,459,451,764	15 / 13
2026-09-14	$11.47	$5,459,451,764	15 / 13
2026-09-15	$11.47	$5,459,451,764	15 / 13
2026-09-16	$11.47	$5,459,451,764	15 / 13
2026-09-17	$11.47	$5,459,949,040	15 / 14
2026-09-18	$11.47	$5,459,949,040	15 / 14
2026-09-19	$11.47	$5,459,949,040	15 / 14
2026-09-20	$11.47	$5,459,949,040	15 / 14
2026-09-21	$11.47	$5,459,949,040	15 / 14
2026-09-22	$11.47	$5,459,949,040	15 / 14
2026-09-23	$11.44	$5,459,887,193	15 / 13
2026-09-24	$11.44	$5,459,887,193	15 / 13
2026-09-25	$11.45	$5,461,605,115	15 / 13
2026-09-26	$11.45	$5,461,581,930	16 / 14
2026-09-27	$11.45	$5,461,581,930	16 / 14
2026-09-28	$11.45	$5,463,577,222	16 / 14
2026-09-29	$11.45	$5,463,577,222	16 / 14
2026-09-30	$11.45	$5,463,577,222	16 / 14
2026-10-01	$11.45	$5,463,577,222	16 / 14
2026-10-02	$11.48	$5,469,262,991	16 / 14
2026-10-03	$11.48	$5,469,262,991	16 / 14
2026-10-04	$11.48	$5,469,262,991	16 / 14
2026-10-05	$11.48	$5,469,262,991	16 / 14
2026-10-06	$11.50	$5,473,611,378	16 / 14
2026-10-07	$11.50	$5,472,295,588	16 / 14
2026-10-08	$11.49	$5,472,295,588	16 / 14
2026-10-09	$11.49	$5,464,327,167	16 / 14
2026-10-10	$11.49	$5,464,327,167	16 / 14
2026-10-11	$11.48	$5,466,969,273	16 / 14
2026-10-12	$11.48	$5,466,969,273	16 / 14
2026-10-13	$11.48	$5,466,969,273	16 / 14
2026-10-14	$11.48	$5,466,969,273	16 / 14
2026-10-15	$11.48	$5,466,969,273	16 / 14
2026-10-16	$11.48	$5,466,969,273	16 / 15
2026-10-17	$11.48	$5,466,969,273	16 / 15
2026-10-18	$11.48	$5,466,969,273	16 / 15
2026-10-19	$11.48	$5,466,969,273	16 / 15
2026-10-20	$11.48	$5,466,969,273	16 / 15
2026-10-21	$11.48	$5,466,969,273	16 / 15
2026-10-22	$11.49	$5,470,884,103	16 / 15
2026-10-23	$11.54	$5,490,131,277	16 / 14
2026-10-24	$11.57	$5,495,204,613	16 / 14

Revenue and EPS estimates track expectations. They are not delivered results or like-for-like proof of a required annual path.

Compare required revenue and earnings

Analyst view

Monthly observations

Buy / Strong BuyHoldSell / Strong Sell

Exact monthly counts

Monthly rating snapshots · fmp. Missing snapshots are not zero.
Date	Buy*	Hold
2026-05-01	14	5
2026-06-01	15	5
2026-07-01	15	5
2026-08-01	15	5
2026-09-01	18	5
2026-10-01	18	4

*Buy includes Strong Buy; Sell includes Strong Sell. Monthly counts describe the analyst mix, not the firms behind each recent action.

Latest: 18 Buy / Strong Buy · 4 Hold · 0 Sell / Strong Sell

1 upgrades0 downgrades13 maintains

Recent actions · Sep 25–Oct 24 · 14 recorded

Price-target changes

30 days

○ Previous · ● Latest · common dollar scale

Robert W. BairdOct 23 · prior May 19

$115.00 → $120.00+4.3%

RBC CapitalOct 23

$120.00New observation · no comparable prior

Morgan StanleyOct 23 · prior Sep 28

$139.00 → $140.00+0.7%

D.A. DavidsonOct 23

$115.00New observation · no comparable prior

Truist FinancialOct 9

$112.00New observation · no comparable prior

Piper SandlerOct 2 · prior Jul 24

$123.00 → $125.00+1.6%

Evercore ISIOct 1 · prior Jul 6

$120.00 → $108.00-10.0%

William BlairSep 30

$190.00New observation · no comparable prior

Wells FargoSep 30 · prior Aug 10

$118.00 → $150.00+27.1%

OppenheimerSep 30

$118.00New observation · no comparable prior

HSBCSep 30

$80.00New observation · no comparable prior

BarclaysSep 30

$63.00New observation · no comparable prior

$0$104.50$209.00

4 raises · 1 cuts · 0 unchanged · 7 without a comparable prior

How this is measured

Sep 25, 2026–Oct 24, 2026. Each firm's latest positive target is paired only with its immediately prior positive target from the same provider, at most 180 days earlier. Unmatched observations have one dot; conflicting observations are not compared.

Outlook in Brief

The evidence, the remaining questions, and what comes next

What's improving

No recovery evidence is reported in the available driver assessments.

Still unresolved / key risks

Use $750 million senior notes to support growthDirect metric needs a verified mapping
EPS reaches at least $11.63 in fiscal 2027Published status: Under Pressure
Expand hiring of revenue producers post-mergerQualitative condition

Next proof point

Next earnings date unavailable

Look for updated results and guidance against the published targets, plus direct evidence for unresolved drivers.

Review earnings

Bottom line

3 of 4 published conditions remain under pressure or need verification. The next results need to address those conditions.

The dated weekly assessment and its assumptions are available in Read detailed Outlook.

Historical risk context

Observed price history; separate from operating scenarios

Price sensitivity

0.8%Typical daily move · historical

Downside history

-19.7%Maximum drawdown · trailing year

Read detailed Outlook Company context, assumptions & risks

Pinnacle Financial Partners outlook in detail

The weekly editorial context below is a separate assessment from the dated monitor evidence above. Recovery observations do not automatically change the published thesis. Unverified outside influences are hypotheses, not measured driver evidence.

Updated Oct 24, 2026

What kind of bet this is

PNFP is a bank with a multi-year thesis tied to revenue growth and integrating Synovus, rather than a turnaround story. The thesis is intact, and recent signals have improved from mixed to mildly favorable, though management execution is neutral overall.

What's priced into Pinnacle Financial Partners

The valuation evidence points to PNFP as cheap versus peers, while the expectations gap is negative, suggesting expectations are not especially demanding. The priced-in assessment is tagged as justified, with low fragility, so the evidence does not show a concentrated market-expectations risk.

What the fundamentals likely do

Near term, recent results are strong: revenue, loans, deposits, and revenue-producer hiring increased, and the latest event was an earnings beat. Merger integration remains mixed because expenses rose in the latest quarter, and the sector backdrop is a headwind; the evidence also flags low near-term miss risk but notes peers have missed lately and PNFP has had a deep miss in its recent history.

What Pinnacle Financial Partners hinges on

Over the next few quarters, the thesis depends on continued revenue growth and turning Synovus integration into clear synergy delivery. A guidance cut or rate cuts from the current level would weigh on the setup, while continued earnings strength and higher guidance from sector bellwethers could support financial-sector momentum.