Philip Morris International (PM)

NYSEConsumer StaplesTobaccoSnapshot 2026-10-15

$205.20+2.65%

Close 2026-10-16 · 1-day change

Read the published Living FV report summary

Investment OutlookAs of Oct 15, 2026

What could strengthen or challenge Philip Morris International’s outlook?

The long-term thesis, the evidence coming in, and the environment around it. Thesis dated Jul 8, 2026.

Higher potential upsideImproving expectations

Next-FY EPS estimate change · 30 days

+0.3%

+10% or more+5%0%−5%−10% or less

9.14 → 9.17 EPS · FY ending Dec 31, 2027 · 8 analysts

Higher risk of downsideWeakening expectations

One observable signal. This measures changing earnings expectations, not the probability of a gain or loss.

How this is measured

Change in the same fiscal period’s mean EPS estimate from Sep 15, 2026 to Oct 15, 2026: (new ÷ prior − 1). Contributor count changed from 8 to 8; this is not the number of analysts revising. Source: FMP consensus snapshots. The ±10% axis is a display range.

Living FV™

Living Fair Value by QuarterlyIQ

A valuation that evolves as the business changes.

A published Living FV snapshot is not available yet. The valuation workflow remains discoverable; a market target cannot supply the missing evidence.

View Living FV report and workflow

What the Thesis Depends On

4 key conditions need to be met for the investment thesis to play out.

Key Factor	Why It Matters	Current Status	Break Condition	Latest Evidence
Adjusted diluted EPS growth excluding currency	Adjusted EPS rose 16% in Q1 and full-year growth is guided at 9% to 11%.	Under Pressure	adjusted diluted EPS growth excluding currency falls below 7% in 2026-FY	Direct metric needs a verified mapping The published measure or accounting basis is not supported by an exact source binding. Source date unavailableLast status assessment Oct 15, 2026Compare required operating outcomes Compare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement. Management context Management stated this priority in all 6 quarters from 2025-Q1 through 2026-Q2. The company forecasted adjusted diluted EPS excluding currency to increase between 7.5% and 9.5% in 2026, consistent with prior guidance of 9% to 11% growth excluding currency in 2025. Adjusted diluted EPS excluding currency grew from $3.60 in the first half of 2025 to $3.94 in the first half of 2026, showing progress aligned with the target. The trajectory is delivering consistent EPS growth excluding currency. Delivery assessment Oct 15, 2026
Capital expenditures focused on smoke-free business	Capital spending stays disciplined at $1.5 billion, focused on smoke-free business.	Intact	CAPEX falls outside $1.4 to $1.6 billion range or shifts away from smoke-free focus in 2026-FY	Capital expenditures: $380M FY2026-Q2; GAAP. Published target: ~$1.5 billion annual CAPEX. Target period is not explicitly aligned with this observation. Source published Jul 24, 2026380,000,000 USD · source valueSource reportLast status assessment Oct 15, 2026 Measurement source consolidated · GAAP FY2026-Q2 · Period ending Jun 30, 2026 Source: stock_quarterly_financials_fmp. Reference: 2026-Q2. Source status: unverified. Compare required operating outcomes Compare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement. Management context Management stated this priority in all 6 quarters from 2025-Q1 through 2026-Q2. Capital expenditures have been consistently forecasted within the $1.4 to $1.6 billion range, predominantly supporting the smoke-free business. This is consistent with prior years' actuals and guidance, reflecting disciplined capital allocation focused on growth areas. The trajectory is stable and aligned with management's stated capital expenditure discipline. Delivery assessment Oct 15, 2026
Organic net revenue growth	A primary condition in Philip Morris International's published investment case. The stated target is >=5% YoY organic net revenue growth.	Under Pressure	organic net revenue growth falls below 4% in 2026-FY	Direct metric needs a verified mapping The published measure or accounting basis is not supported by an exact source binding. Source date unavailableLast status assessment Oct 15, 2026Compare required operating outcomes Compare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement. Management context Management stated this priority in all 6 quarters from 2025-Q1 through 2026-Q2. The company forecasted organic net revenue growth of 5% to 7% for 2026, consistent with prior guidance of 6% to 8% in 2025. Actual reported net revenues increased from $9.3B in 2025-Q1 to $11.2B in 2026-Q2, reflecting growth aligned with the stated range. The trajectory shows management maintaining this growth target and delivering revenue increases consistent with it. Delivery assessment Oct 15, 2026
Smoke-free product shipment volume growth	Philip Morris grows smoke-free products fast, with 43% of revenue in Q1 2026.	Under Pressure	YoY smoke-free shipment volume growth falls below 10% in 2026-FY	Direct metric needs a verified mapping The published measure or accounting basis is not supported by an exact source binding. Source date unavailableLast status assessment Oct 15, 2026Compare required operating outcomes Compare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement. Management context Stated as a priority in all 6 quarters from 2025-Q1 through 2026-Q2. The smoke-free business shipment volume grew from 14.4% in 2025-Q1 to 7.5% in 2026-Q2, with IQOS maintaining around 75% volume share in 2026-Q2. ZYN expanded from 44 markets in 2025-Q1 to 60 markets in 2026-Q2, and VEEV shipments increased by 55.1% in 2026-Q2. The trajectory shows consistent delivery of volume and market expansion aligned with management's stated growth focus. Delivery assessment Oct 15, 2026

Stored thesis · Jul 8, 2026. Latest Evidence uses source-matched measurements where available, alongside the last thesis-monitor assessment. Source periods and assessment dates are shown separately. A new measurement does not automatically change the published status or verify an older target.

Incoming Evidence

Compare these dated observations with the operating requirements above

Expectations trend

Same fiscal period

FY2027 · fiscal year ending 2027-12-31 · fmp

FY2027 EPS$9.17

$9.14 → $9.17 · observed estimates

FY2027 revenue$45.94B

$45.96B → $45.94B · observed estimates

Exact estimates & source dates

One fiscal period and provider throughout. At least five contributors are required for each plotted metric; missing coverage stays a gap. Axes show the observed range. Counts measure coverage, not revisions.

FY2027 estimate observations · fmp
Snapshot	EPS	Revenue	EPS / revenue analysts
2026-07-24	$9.14	$45,955,763,590	16 / 14
2026-07-25	$9.14	$45,962,097,390	16 / 14
2026-07-26	$9.14	$45,962,097,390	16 / 14
2026-07-27	$9.14	$45,962,097,390	16 / 14
2026-07-28	$9.14	$45,962,097,390	16 / 14
2026-07-29	$9.16	$45,979,240,240	16 / 14
2026-07-30	$9.14	$45,958,822,688	9 / 11
2026-07-31	$9.17	$45,976,358,980	16 / 14
2026-08-01	$9.15	$45,955,294,542	9 / 11
2026-08-02	$9.17	$45,976,358,980	16 / 14
2026-08-03	$9.17	$45,976,358,980	16 / 14
2026-08-04	$9.15	$45,955,263,834	9 / 11
2026-08-05	$9.15	$45,955,263,834	9 / 11
2026-08-06	$9.15	$45,955,263,834	9 / 11
2026-08-07	$9.15	$45,955,263,834	9 / 11
2026-08-08	$9.17	$45,976,358,980	16 / 14
2026-08-09	$9.17	$45,976,358,980	16 / 14
2026-08-10	$9.15	$45,955,263,834	9 / 11
2026-08-12	$9.17	$45,976,358,980	16 / 14
2026-08-13	$9.15	$45,955,263,834	9 / 11
2026-08-14	$9.15	$45,955,263,834	9 / 11
2026-08-15	$9.15	$45,955,263,834	9 / 11
2026-08-16	$9.15	$45,955,263,834	9 / 11
2026-08-17	$9.15	$45,955,263,834	9 / 11
2026-08-18	$9.15	$45,955,263,834	9 / 11
2026-08-19	$9.15	$45,955,263,834	9 / 11
2026-08-20	$9.13	$45,903,049,767	9 / 11
2026-08-21	$9.13	$45,903,049,767	9 / 11
2026-08-22	$9.13	$45,903,049,767	9 / 11
2026-08-23	$9.13	$45,903,049,767	9 / 11
2026-08-24	$9.13	$45,903,049,767	9 / 11
2026-08-25	$9.13	$45,903,049,767	9 / 11
2026-08-26	$9.13	$45,903,049,767	9 / 11
2026-08-27	$9.13	$45,903,049,767	9 / 11
2026-08-28	$9.13	$45,903,049,767	9 / 11
2026-08-29	$9.13	$45,903,049,767	9 / 11
2026-08-30	$9.13	$45,903,049,767	9 / 11
2026-08-31	$9.13	$45,903,049,767	9 / 11
2026-09-01	$9.13	$45,903,049,767	9 / 11
2026-09-02	$9.13	$45,903,049,767	9 / 11
2026-09-03	$9.13	$45,903,049,767	9 / 11
2026-09-04	$9.13	$45,903,049,767	9 / 11
2026-09-05	$9.13	$45,903,049,767	9 / 11
2026-09-06	$9.13	$45,903,049,767	9 / 11
2026-09-07	$9.13	$45,903,049,767	9 / 11
2026-09-08	$9.13	$45,903,049,767	9 / 11
2026-09-09	$9.14	$45,942,496,285	9 / 11
2026-09-10	$9.14	$45,942,496,285	8 / 10
2026-09-11	$9.14	$45,942,496,285	8 / 10
2026-09-12	$9.14	$45,942,496,285	8 / 10
2026-09-13	$9.14	$45,942,496,285	8 / 10
2026-09-14	$9.14	$45,942,496,285	8 / 10
2026-09-15	$9.14	$45,942,496,285	8 / 10
2026-09-16	$9.15	$45,972,627,035	8 / 10
2026-09-17	$9.15	$45,972,627,035	8 / 10
2026-09-18	$9.15	$45,972,627,035	8 / 10
2026-09-19	$9.15	$45,972,627,035	8 / 10
2026-09-20	$9.16	$46,008,262,202	8 / 10
2026-09-21	$9.16	$46,008,262,202	8 / 10
2026-09-22	$9.16	$46,008,262,202	8 / 10
2026-09-23	$9.17	$46,013,964,139	8 / 10
2026-09-24	$9.17	$46,013,964,139	8 / 10
2026-09-25	$9.17	$46,013,964,139	8 / 10
2026-09-26	$9.17	$46,013,964,139	8 / 10
2026-09-27	$9.17	$46,013,964,139	8 / 10
2026-09-28	$9.17	$46,013,964,139	8 / 10
2026-09-29	$9.17	$46,013,964,139	8 / 10
2026-09-30	$9.17	$46,013,964,139	8 / 10
2026-10-01	$9.17	$46,013,964,139	8 / 10
2026-10-02	$9.17	$46,013,964,139	8 / 10
2026-10-03	$9.17	$46,013,964,139	8 / 10
2026-10-04	$9.17	$46,013,964,139	8 / 10
2026-10-05	$9.17	$46,013,964,139	8 / 10
2026-10-06	$9.17	$46,013,964,139	8 / 10
2026-10-07	$9.17	$46,013,964,139	8 / 10
2026-10-08	$9.16	$45,981,214,139	8 / 10
2026-10-09	$9.16	$45,981,214,139	8 / 10
2026-10-10	$9.16	$45,981,214,139	8 / 10
2026-10-11	$9.16	$45,955,981,916	8 / 10
2026-10-12	$9.16	$45,955,981,916	8 / 10
2026-10-13	$9.17	$45,964,898,583	8 / 10
2026-10-14	$9.17	$45,940,806,098	8 / 10
2026-10-15	$9.17	$45,940,806,098	8 / 10

Revenue and EPS estimates track expectations. They are not delivered results or like-for-like proof of a required annual path.

Compare required revenue and earnings

Analyst view

Monthly observations

Buy / Strong BuyHoldSell / Strong Sell

Exact monthly counts

Monthly rating snapshots · fmp. Missing snapshots are not zero.
Date	Buy*	Hold	Sell*
2026-05-01	11	5	0
2026-06-01	11	4	0
2026-07-01	12	4	1
2026-08-01	13	4	0
2026-09-01	13	4	0
2026-10-01	12	4	0

*Buy includes Strong Buy; Sell includes Strong Sell. Monthly counts describe the analyst mix, not the firms behind each recent action.

Latest: 12 Buy / Strong Buy · 4 Hold · 0 Sell / Strong Sell

0 upgrades0 downgrades1 maintains

Recent actions · Sep 16–Oct 15 · 1 recorded

Price-target changes

30 days

○ Previous · ● Latest · common dollar scale

UBSSep 23 · prior Jul 2

$182.00 → $192.00+5.5%

$0$105.60$211.20

1 raises · 0 cuts · 0 unchanged · 0 without a comparable prior

How this is measured

Sep 16, 2026–Oct 15, 2026. Each firm's latest positive target is paired only with its immediately prior positive target from the same provider, at most 180 days earlier. Unmatched observations have one dot; conflicting observations are not compared.

Outlook in Brief

The evidence, the remaining questions, and what comes next

What's improving

No recovery evidence is reported in the available driver assessments.

Still unresolved / key risks

Adjusted diluted EPS growth excluding currencyPublished status: Under Pressure
Capital expenditures focused on smoke-free businessCapital expenditures: $380M
Organic net revenue growthPublished status: Under Pressure
Smoke-free product shipment volume growthPublished status: Under Pressure

Next proof point

Oct 20, 2026

Look for updated results and guidance against the published targets, plus direct evidence for unresolved drivers.

Review earnings

Bottom line

4 of 4 published conditions remain under pressure or need verification. The next results need to address those conditions.

The dated weekly assessment and its assumptions are available in Read detailed Outlook.

Historical risk context

Observed price history; separate from operating scenarios

Price sensitivity

1.2%Typical daily move · historical

Downside history

-18.5%Maximum drawdown · trailing year

Read detailed Outlook Company context, assumptions & risks

Philip Morris International outlook in detail

The weekly editorial context below is a separate assessment from the dated monitor evidence above. Recovery observations do not automatically change the published thesis. Unverified outside influences are hypotheses, not measured driver evidence.

Updated Oct 10, 2026

What kind of bet this is

This investment represents a durable compounder with a focus on smoke-free products. The current thesis state is stable, supported by management's consistent growth priorities and recent financial performance.

What's priced into Philip Morris International

The market appears to have priced in a low level of execution quality, reflecting a fragile setup but not overly pessimistic expectations. PM trades at a premium compared to its peers, indicating that some growth potential is already recognized.

What the fundamentals likely do

Management is on track to achieve its targets for organic net revenue growth and adjusted diluted EPS growth. However, there are moderate risks, including the potential for guidance cuts and economic headwinds that could impact performance.

What Philip Morris International hinges on

The thesis hinges on management's ability to maintain growth in smoke-free products and navigate economic challenges. Key factors include inflation trends and the overall health of the job market, which could influence consumer spending.