Palantir Technologies (PLTR)

NASDAQInformation TechnologySoftware - InfrastructureSnapshot 2026-10-15

$186.03-7.22%

Close 2026-10-16 · 1-day change

Read the published Living FV report summary

Investment OutlookAs of Oct 15, 2026

What could strengthen or challenge Palantir Technologies’s outlook?

The long-term thesis, the evidence coming in, and the environment around it. Thesis dated Jul 8, 2026.

Higher potential upsideImproving expectations

Next-FY EPS estimate change · 30 days

+0.3%

+10% or more+5%0%−5%−10% or less

2.29 → 2.30 EPS · FY ending Dec 31, 2027 · 19 analysts

Higher risk of downsideWeakening expectations

One observable signal. This measures changing earnings expectations, not the probability of a gain or loss.

How this is measured

Change in the same fiscal period’s mean EPS estimate from Sep 15, 2026 to Oct 15, 2026: (new ÷ prior − 1). Contributor count changed from 20 to 19; this is not the number of analysts revising. Source: FMP consensus snapshots. The ±10% axis is a display range.

Living FV™

Living Fair Value by QuarterlyIQ

A valuation that evolves as the business changes.

A published Living FV snapshot is not available yet. The valuation workflow remains discoverable; a market target cannot supply the missing evidence.

View Living FV report and workflow

What the Thesis Depends On

4 key conditions need to be met for the investment thesis to play out.

Key Factor	Why It Matters	Current Status	Break Condition	Latest Evidence
Adjusted free cash flow >= $4.2 billion	Free cash flow guidance is raised to $4.3 billion, reflecting better efficiency.	Intact	Adjusted free cash flow falls below $3 billion next year	Direct metric needs a verified mapping The published measure or accounting basis is not supported by an exact source binding. Source date unavailableLast status assessment Oct 15, 2026Compare required operating outcomes Compare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement. Management context Raised as a priority in 7 of last 7 quarters. Adjusted free cash flow guidance increased from $1.6-$1.8 billion in 2025-Q1 to $4.5-$4.7 billion in 2026-Q2. Actual adjusted free cash flow was $1.25 billion in 2024, showing strong growth expectations. Management is delivering on this priority with consistent upward revisions. Delivery assessment Oct 15, 2026
Stable leadership without major insider selling	A supporting condition in Palantir Technologies's published investment case. The stated target is No significant insider stock sales.	Intact	CTO or key executives sell >$20 million stock within 6 months	Direct metric needs a verified mapping The published measure or accounting basis is not supported by an exact source binding. Source date unavailableLast status assessment Oct 15, 2026Compare required operating outcomes Compare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement.
Total revenue grows >= 67% YoY	A primary condition in Palantir Technologies's published investment case. The stated target is >= 67% YoY growth.	Intact	Total revenue growth falls below 40% YoY next year	Direct metric needs a verified mapping The published measure or accounting basis is not supported by an exact source binding. Source date unavailableLast status assessment Oct 15, 2026Compare required operating outcomes Compare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement. Management context Stated in 7 of last 7 quarters. Revenue grew from $828 million in 2024-Q4 to $1.935 billion in 2026-Q2, a 93% year-over-year increase in the latest quarter. Full-year 2026 revenue guidance was raised to $8.15-$8.16 billion, an 82% increase over 2025 actuals. Management is delivering strong revenue growth consistent with stated priorities. Delivery assessment Oct 15, 2026
U.S. commercial revenue grows >= 100% YoY	A primary condition in Palantir Technologies's published investment case. The stated target is >= 100% YoY growth.	Improving	U.S. commercial revenue growth falls below 50% YoY next year	Direct metric needs a verified mapping The published measure or accounting basis is not supported by an exact source binding. Source date unavailableLast status assessment Oct 15, 2026Compare required operating outcomes Compare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement. Management context Stated as a priority in 7 of last 7 quarters. U.S. commercial revenue grew from $214 million in 2024-Q4 to $764 million in 2026-Q2, a 149% year-over-year increase in the latest quarter. Management has consistently raised U.S. commercial revenue guidance, most recently to over $3.424 billion for 2026, representing at least 134% growth. The trajectory is delivering strongly on this priority. Delivery assessment Oct 15, 2026

Stored thesis · Jul 8, 2026. Latest Evidence uses source-matched measurements where available, alongside the last thesis-monitor assessment. Source periods and assessment dates are shown separately. A new measurement does not automatically change the published status or verify an older target.

Incoming Evidence

Compare these dated observations with the operating requirements above

Expectations trend

Same fiscal period

FY2027 · fiscal year ending 2027-12-31 · fmp

FY2027 EPS$2.30

$2.09 → $2.30 · observed estimates

FY2027 revenue$12.33B

$11.22B → $12.33B · observed estimates

Exact estimates & source dates

One fiscal period and provider throughout. At least five contributors are required for each plotted metric; missing coverage stays a gap. Axes show the observed range. Counts measure coverage, not revisions.

FY2027 estimate observations · fmp
Snapshot	EPS	Revenue	EPS / revenue analysts
2026-07-24	$2.09	$11,223,982,140	29 / 31
2026-07-25	$2.09	$11,223,982,140	29 / 31
2026-07-26	$2.08	$11,236,682,028	20 / 24
2026-07-27	$2.08	$11,236,682,028	20 / 24
2026-07-28	$2.09	$11,226,675,600	29 / 31
2026-07-29	$2.08	$11,236,683,296	20 / 24
2026-07-30	$2.08	$11,236,683,296	20 / 24
2026-07-31	$2.08	$11,236,683,296	20 / 24
2026-08-01	$2.08	$11,236,683,296	20 / 24
2026-08-02	$2.09	$11,226,675,600	29 / 31
2026-08-03	$2.08	$11,236,695,111	20 / 24
2026-08-04	$2.09	$11,226,675,600	29 / 31
2026-08-05	$2.14	$11,545,496,204	20 / 24
2026-08-06	$2.14	$11,545,496,204	20 / 24
2026-08-07	$2.26	$12,147,263,527	20 / 24
2026-08-08	$2.30	$12,049,123,740	29 / 31
2026-08-09	$2.26	$12,147,263,527	20 / 24
2026-08-10	$2.26	$12,147,263,527	20 / 24
2026-08-12	$2.31	$12,165,761,750	29 / 29
2026-08-13	$2.26	$12,147,263,527	20 / 24
2026-08-14	$2.26	$12,147,263,527	20 / 24
2026-08-15	$2.26	$12,147,263,527	20 / 24
2026-08-16	$2.26	$12,147,263,527	20 / 23
2026-08-17	$2.26	$12,147,263,527	20 / 23
2026-08-18	$2.26	$12,147,263,527	20 / 24
2026-08-19	$2.26	$12,147,263,527	20 / 24
2026-08-20	$2.28	$12,199,153,227	20 / 24
2026-08-21	$2.28	$12,199,153,227	20 / 24
2026-08-22	$2.28	$12,199,153,227	20 / 24
2026-08-23	$2.28	$12,199,153,227	20 / 24
2026-08-24	$2.28	$12,199,153,227	20 / 24
2026-08-25	$2.28	$12,222,216,484	20 / 24
2026-08-26	$2.28	$12,222,216,484	20 / 24
2026-08-27	$2.28	$12,222,216,484	20 / 24
2026-08-28	$2.28	$12,222,216,484	20 / 24
2026-08-29	$2.28	$12,222,214,912	20 / 24
2026-08-30	$2.28	$12,222,214,912	20 / 24
2026-08-31	$2.28	$12,222,214,912	20 / 24
2026-09-01	$2.28	$12,222,214,912	20 / 24
2026-09-02	$2.28	$12,222,214,912	20 / 24
2026-09-03	$2.28	$12,222,214,912	20 / 24
2026-09-04	$2.28	$12,222,214,912	20 / 24
2026-09-05	$2.28	$12,222,214,912	20 / 24
2026-09-06	$2.28	$12,222,214,912	20 / 24
2026-09-07	$2.28	$12,222,214,912	20 / 24
2026-09-08	$2.28	$12,222,214,912	20 / 23
2026-09-09	$2.28	$12,222,214,912	20 / 24
2026-09-10	$2.29	$12,260,352,843	20 / 24
2026-09-11	$2.29	$12,260,352,843	20 / 24
2026-09-12	$2.29	$12,260,353,015	20 / 24
2026-09-13	$2.29	$12,260,354,588	20 / 24
2026-09-14	$2.29	$12,260,354,588	20 / 24
2026-09-15	$2.29	$12,246,128,279	20 / 24
2026-09-16	$2.29	$12,251,468,684	20 / 24
2026-09-17	$2.29	$12,251,434,201	20 / 24
2026-09-18	$2.29	$12,251,434,201	20 / 24
2026-09-19	$2.29	$12,251,434,201	20 / 24
2026-09-20	$2.29	$12,265,009,435	20 / 24
2026-09-21	$2.29	$12,265,009,435	20 / 24
2026-09-22	$2.29	$12,265,009,435	20 / 24
2026-09-23	$2.29	$12,265,009,435	20 / 24
2026-09-24	$2.29	$12,265,009,425	20 / 24
2026-09-25	$2.29	$12,265,009,425	19 / 23
2026-09-26	$2.29	$12,265,009,425	19 / 23
2026-09-27	$2.29	$12,265,009,425	19 / 23
2026-09-28	$2.29	$12,265,009,425	19 / 23
2026-09-29	$2.29	$12,265,009,425	19 / 23
2026-09-30	$2.29	$12,314,082,164	19 / 23
2026-10-01	$2.29	$12,314,082,164	19 / 23
2026-10-02	$2.29	$12,314,082,164	19 / 23
2026-10-03	$2.29	$12,314,082,164	19 / 23
2026-10-04	$2.29	$12,314,082,164	19 / 23
2026-10-05	$2.29	$12,314,082,164	19 / 23
2026-10-06	$2.29	$12,314,082,164	19 / 23
2026-10-07	$2.29	$12,314,080,591	19 / 23
2026-10-08	$2.29	$12,314,080,591	19 / 23
2026-10-09	$2.29	$12,326,597,419	19 / 23
2026-10-10	$2.29	$12,326,597,419	19 / 23
2026-10-11	$2.30	$12,326,597,419	19 / 23
2026-10-12	$2.30	$12,326,597,419	19 / 23
2026-10-13	$2.30	$12,326,597,419	19 / 23
2026-10-14	$2.30	$12,326,598,991	19 / 23
2026-10-15	$2.30	$12,326,598,991	19 / 23

Revenue and EPS estimates track expectations. They are not delivered results or like-for-like proof of a required annual path.

Compare required revenue and earnings

Analyst view

Monthly observations

Buy / Strong BuyHoldSell / Strong Sell

Exact monthly counts

Monthly rating snapshots · fmp. Missing snapshots are not zero.
Date	Buy*	Hold	Sell*
2026-05-01	19	11	2
2026-06-01	20	11	2
2026-07-01	21	10	2
2026-08-01	21	10	2
2026-09-01	21	9	2
2026-10-01	22	9	3

*Buy includes Strong Buy; Sell includes Strong Sell. Monthly counts describe the analyst mix, not the firms behind each recent action.

Latest: 22 Buy / Strong Buy · 9 Hold · 3 Sell / Strong Sell

1 upgrades0 downgrades2 maintains

Recent actions · Sep 16–Oct 15 · 3 recorded

Price-target changes

30 days

○ Previous · ● Latest · common dollar scale

Mizuho SecuritiesOct 15 · prior Aug 4

$215.00 → $245.00+14.0%

Robert W. BairdOct 12

$250.00New observation · no comparable prior

Goldman SachsOct 8 · prior Aug 4

$204.00 → $230.00+12.7%

BarclaysOct 8

$265.00New observation · no comparable prior

$0$145.75$291.50

2 raises · 0 cuts · 0 unchanged · 2 without a comparable prior

How this is measured

Sep 16, 2026–Oct 15, 2026. Each firm's latest positive target is paired only with its immediately prior positive target from the same provider, at most 180 days earlier. Unmatched observations have one dot; conflicting observations are not compared.

Outlook in Brief

The evidence, the remaining questions, and what comes next

What's improving

No recovery evidence is reported in the available driver assessments.

Still unresolved / key risks

Adjusted free cash flow >= $4.2 billionDirect metric needs a verified mapping
Stable leadership without major insider sellingDirect metric needs a verified mapping
Total revenue grows >= 67% YoYDirect metric needs a verified mapping
U.S. commercial revenue grows >= 100% YoYDirect metric needs a verified mapping

Next proof point

Nov 2, 2026

Look for updated results and guidance against the published targets, plus direct evidence for unresolved drivers.

Review earnings

Bottom line

4 of 4 published conditions remain under pressure or need verification. The next results need to address those conditions.

The dated weekly assessment and its assumptions are available in Read detailed Outlook.

Historical risk context

Observed price history; separate from operating scenarios

Price sensitivity

1.8%Typical daily move · historical

Downside history

-48.2%Maximum drawdown · trailing year

Read detailed Outlook Company context, assumptions & risks

Palantir Technologies outlook in detail

The weekly editorial context below is a separate assessment from the dated monitor evidence above. Recovery observations do not automatically change the published thesis. Unverified outside influences are hypotheses, not measured driver evidence.

Updated Oct 10, 2026

What kind of bet this is

This investment represents a speculative growth opportunity. The current thesis state is intact, supported by strong recent financial performance and management's focus on key priorities.

What's priced into Palantir Technologies

The market seems to assume a lot of future growth, as indicated by an expensive valuation compared to peers. There is a sense of fragility due to weak execution quality and the elevated pricing environment.

What the fundamentals likely do

Management has consistently delivered on growth priorities, with strong increases in U.S. commercial revenue and adjusted free cash flow. However, there is a low probability of missing earnings expectations, which could impact sentiment.

What Palantir Technologies hinges on

The long-term thesis hinges on external factors like potential Fed rate cuts and the performance of major tech companies. Additionally, any guidance cuts from PLTR could lead to significant negative reactions.