Impinj, Inc. (PI)

NASDAQInformation TechnologySemiconductorsSnapshot 2026-10-23

$167.07+2.69%

Close 2026-10-23 · 1-day change

Investment OutlookAs of Oct 24, 2026

What could strengthen or challenge Impinj, Inc.’s outlook?

The long-term thesis, the evidence coming in, and the environment around it. Thesis dated Jul 8, 2026.

Higher potential upsideImproving expectations

Next-FY EPS estimate change · 30 days

+0.1%

+10% or more+5%0%−5%−10% or less

2.80 → 2.81 EPS · FY ending Dec 31, 2027 · 5 analysts

Higher risk of downsideWeakening expectations

One observable signal. This measures changing earnings expectations, not the probability of a gain or loss.

How this is measured

Change in the same fiscal period’s mean EPS estimate from Sep 24, 2026 to Oct 24, 2026: (new ÷ prior − 1). Contributor count changed from 5 to 5; this is not the number of analysts revising. Source: FMP consensus snapshots. The ±10% axis is a display range.

Measure / period	Management expectations	Analyst expectations
FY 2026 · Q3
Revenue	$105.5M–$108.5M	—
EPS	$0.07–$0.12GAAP $0.59–$0.63non-GAAP	—
EBITDA	$20.7M–$22.2Mnon-GAAP	—
FY 2026 · Q4
Revenue	—	99.28M
EPS	—	0.485
FY 2026 · Annual
Revenue	—	389.05M
EPS	—	2.092
FY 2027 · Annual
Revenue	—	468.37M
EPS	—	2.807

What the Thesis Depends On

4 published thesis conditions, with dated milestones shown separately.

Key Factor	Why It Matters	Current Status	Break Condition	Latest Evidence
EPS recovers from -$0.05 in Q3 2026 to positive	A supporting condition in Impinj, Inc.'s published investment case. The stated target is EPS >= $0.10.	Intact	EPS remains negative through 2026-Q4	Direct metric needs a verified mapping The published measure or accounting basis is not supported by an exact source binding. Source date unavailableLast status assessment Oct 24, 2026Compare required operating outcomes Compare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement.
Gross profit stabilizes near $36.5M or improves	A supporting condition in Impinj, Inc.'s published investment case. The stated target is gross profit >= $36 million.	Under Pressure	gross profit falls below $30 million in next 4 quarters	Gross profit: $63.533M FY2026-Q2; GAAP. Published target: gross profit >= $36 million. Target period is not explicitly aligned with this observation. Source published Jul 29, 202663,533,000 USD · source valueSource reportLast status assessment Oct 24, 2026 Measurement source consolidated · GAAP FY2026-Q2 · Period ending Jun 30, 2026 Source: company_financial_results. Reference: 5d836c06-525f-4764-931c-9e4c1c12608d. Source status: eligible. Compare required operating outcomes Compare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement.
Operating income improves from -$15.2M in Q1 2026	Management targets improving operating income from -$15.2M in Q1.	Under Pressure	operating income remains below -$10 million by 2026-Q4	Operating income: $10.504M FY2026-Q2; GAAP. Published target: operating income > -$5 million. The stored target says 2026-Q4; this source reports FY2026-Q2. Fiscal/calendar alignment needs review. Source published Jul 29, 202610,504,000 USD · source valueSource reportLast status assessment Oct 24, 2026 Measurement source consolidated · GAAP FY2026-Q2 · Period ending Jun 30, 2026 Source: company_financial_results. Reference: 5d836c06-525f-4764-931c-9e4c1c12608d. Source status: eligible. Compare required operating outcomes Compare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement.
Revenue recovers to at least $104.5M in Q2 2026	A primary condition in Impinj, Inc.'s published investment case. The stated target is >= $104.5 million.	Under Pressure	revenue falls below $90 million in 2026-Q2	Revenue: $108.371M FY2026-Q2; GAAP. Published target: >= $104.5 million. The target does not explicitly identify fiscal versus calendar quarters. Source published Jul 29, 2026108,371,000 USD · source valueSource reportLast status assessment Oct 24, 2026 Measurement source consolidated · GAAP FY2026-Q2 · Period ending Jun 30, 2026 Source: company_financial_results. Reference: 5d836c06-525f-4764-931c-9e4c1c12608d. Source status: eligible. Compare required operating outcomes Compare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement.

Stored thesis · Jul 8, 2026. Latest Evidence uses source-matched measurements where available, alongside the last thesis-monitor assessment. Source periods and assessment dates are shown separately. A new measurement does not automatically change the published status or verify an older target.

Incoming Evidence

Compare these dated observations with the operating requirements above

Expectations trend

Same fiscal period

FY2027 · fiscal year ending 2027-12-31 · fmp

FY2027 EPS$2.81

$2.82 → $2.81 · observed estimates

FY2027 revenue$0.47B

$0.46B → $0.47B · observed estimates

Exact estimates & source dates

One fiscal period and provider throughout. At least five contributors are required for each plotted metric; missing coverage stays a gap. Axes show the observed range. Counts measure coverage, not revisions.

FY2027 estimate observations · fmp
Snapshot	EPS	Revenue	EPS / revenue analysts
2026-07-24	$2.82	$461,488,330	8 / 7
2026-07-25	$2.82	$461,488,330	8 / 7
2026-07-26	$2.82	$461,488,330	8 / 7
2026-07-27	$2.82	$461,488,330	8 / 7
2026-07-28	$2.82	$461,488,330	8 / 7
2026-07-29	$2.82	$461,488,330	8 / 7
2026-07-30	$2.82	$461,488,330	8 / 7
2026-07-31	Unavailable	$468,790,699	4 / 5
2026-08-01	Unavailable	$468,790,699	4 / 5
2026-08-02	$2.81	$468,790,700	8 / 7
2026-08-03	$2.81	$468,790,699	5 / 5
2026-08-04	$2.81	$468,790,700	8 / 7
2026-08-05	$2.81	$468,790,700	8 / 7
2026-08-06	$2.81	$468,790,699	5 / 5
2026-08-07	$2.81	$468,790,699	5 / 5
2026-08-08	$2.81	$468,790,699	5 / 5
2026-08-09	$2.81	$468,790,700	8 / 7
2026-08-10	$2.81	$468,790,700	8 / 7
2026-08-12	$2.81	$468,790,700	8 / 7
2026-08-13	$2.81	$468,790,700	8 / 7
2026-08-14	$2.81	$468,790,699	5 / 5
2026-08-15	$2.81	$468,790,699	5 / 5
2026-08-16	$2.81	$468,790,699	5 / 5
2026-08-17	$2.81	$468,790,699	5 / 5
2026-08-18	$2.81	$468,790,699	5 / 5
2026-08-19	$2.81	$468,790,699	5 / 5
2026-08-20	$2.81	$468,790,699	5 / 5
2026-08-21	$2.81	$468,790,699	5 / 5
2026-08-22	$2.80	$468,391,862	5 / 5
2026-08-23	$2.80	$468,391,862	5 / 5
2026-08-24	$2.80	$468,391,862	5 / 5
2026-08-25	$2.80	$468,391,862	5 / 5
2026-08-26	$2.80	$468,391,862	5 / 5
2026-08-27	$2.80	$468,391,862	5 / 5
2026-08-28	$2.80	$468,391,862	5 / 5
2026-08-29	$2.80	$468,391,862	5 / 5
2026-08-30	$2.80	$468,391,862	5 / 5
2026-08-31	$2.80	$468,391,862	5 / 5
2026-09-01	$2.80	$468,391,862	5 / 5
2026-09-02	$2.80	$468,391,862	5 / 5
2026-09-03	$2.80	$468,388,037	5 / 5
2026-09-04	$2.80	$468,391,862	5 / 5
2026-09-05	$2.80	$468,391,862	5 / 5
2026-09-06	$2.80	$468,391,862	5 / 5
2026-09-07	$2.80	$468,391,862	5 / 5
2026-09-08	$2.80	$468,391,862	5 / 5
2026-09-09	$2.80	$468,391,862	5 / 5
2026-09-10	$2.80	$468,391,862	5 / 5
2026-09-11	$2.80	$468,391,862	5 / 5
2026-09-12	$2.80	$468,391,862	5 / 5
2026-09-13	$2.80	$468,391,862	5 / 5
2026-09-14	$2.80	$468,391,862	5 / 5
2026-09-15	$2.80	$468,391,862	5 / 5
2026-09-16	$2.80	$468,391,862	5 / 5
2026-09-17	$2.80	$468,391,862	5 / 5
2026-09-18	$2.80	$468,391,862	5 / 5
2026-09-19	$2.80	$468,391,862	5 / 5
2026-09-20	$2.80	$468,391,862	5 / 5
2026-09-21	$2.80	$468,391,862	5 / 5
2026-09-22	$2.80	$468,391,862	5 / 5
2026-09-23	$2.80	$468,391,862	5 / 5
2026-09-24	$2.80	$468,391,862	5 / 5
2026-09-25	$2.80	$468,391,862	5 / 5
2026-09-26	$2.80	$468,391,862	5 / 5
2026-09-27	$2.80	$468,393,112	5 / 5
2026-09-28	$2.80	$468,393,112	5 / 5
2026-09-29	$2.80	$468,393,112	5 / 5
2026-09-30	$2.80	$468,393,112	5 / 5
2026-10-01	$2.80	$468,393,112	5 / 5
2026-10-02	$2.80	$468,393,112	5 / 5
2026-10-03	$2.80	$468,393,112	5 / 5
2026-10-04	$2.80	$468,393,112	5 / 5
2026-10-05	$2.80	$468,393,112	5 / 5
2026-10-06	$2.80	$468,393,112	5 / 5
2026-10-07	$2.80	$468,393,112	5 / 5
2026-10-08	$2.80	$468,393,112	5 / 5
2026-10-09	$2.80	$468,393,112	5 / 5
2026-10-10	$2.80	$468,393,112	5 / 5
2026-10-11	$2.80	$468,393,112	5 / 5
2026-10-12	$2.80	$468,393,112	5 / 5
2026-10-13	$2.80	$468,393,112	5 / 5
2026-10-14	$2.80	$468,393,112	5 / 5
2026-10-15	$2.80	$468,393,112	5 / 5
2026-10-16	$2.80	$468,393,112	5 / 5
2026-10-17	$2.80	$468,393,112	5 / 5
2026-10-18	$2.80	$468,389,287	5 / 5
2026-10-19	$2.80	$468,389,287	5 / 5
2026-10-20	$2.81	$468,368,732	5 / 5
2026-10-21	$2.81	$468,368,732	5 / 5
2026-10-22	$2.81	$468,368,732	5 / 5
2026-10-23	$2.81	$468,368,732	5 / 5
2026-10-24	$2.81	$468,368,732	5 / 5

Revenue and EPS estimates track expectations. They are not delivered results or like-for-like proof of a required annual path.

Compare required revenue and earnings

Analyst view

Monthly observations

Buy / Strong BuyHoldSell / Strong Sell

Exact monthly counts

Monthly rating snapshots · fmp. Missing snapshots are not zero.
Date	Buy*	Hold
2026-05-01	6	2
2026-06-01	6	2
2026-07-01	6	2
2026-08-01	7	2
2026-09-01	7	2
2026-10-01	7	2

*Buy includes Strong Buy; Sell includes Strong Sell. Monthly counts describe the analyst mix, not the firms behind each recent action.

Latest: 7 Buy / Strong Buy · 2 Hold · 0 Sell / Strong Sell

0 upgrades0 downgrades1 maintains

Recent actions · Sep 25–Oct 24 · 1 recorded

Price-target changes

30 days

Individual price-target observations are unavailable.

0 raises · 0 cuts · 0 unchanged · 0 without a comparable prior

How this is measured

Sep 25, 2026–Oct 24, 2026. Each firm's latest positive target is paired only with its immediately prior positive target from the same provider, at most 180 days earlier. Unmatched observations have one dot; conflicting observations are not compared.

Outlook in Brief

The evidence, the remaining questions, and what comes next

What's improving

No recovery evidence is reported in the available driver assessments.

Still unresolved / key risks

EPS recovers from -$0.05 in Q3 2026 to positiveDirect metric needs a verified mapping
Gross profit stabilizes near $36.5M or improvesPublished status: Under Pressure
Operating income improves from -$15.2M in Q1 2026Published status: Under Pressure
Revenue recovers to at least $104.5M in Q2 2026Published status: Under Pressure

Next proof point

Oct 28, 2026

Look for updated results and guidance against the published targets, plus direct evidence for unresolved drivers.

Review earnings

Bottom line

4 of 4 published conditions remain under pressure or need verification. The next results need to address those conditions.

The dated weekly assessment and its assumptions are available in Read detailed Outlook.

Historical risk context

Observed price history; separate from operating scenarios

Price sensitivity

2.2%Typical daily move · historical

Downside history

-62.2%Maximum drawdown · trailing year

Read detailed Outlook Company context, assumptions & risks

Impinj, Inc. outlook in detail

The weekly editorial context below is a separate assessment from the dated monitor evidence above. Recovery observations do not automatically change the published thesis. Unverified outside influences are hypotheses, not measured driver evidence.

Updated Oct 24, 2026

What kind of bet this is

PI is a growth-focused business with a developing profitability story, rather than a proven durable compounder. Its multi-year thesis is on watch: recent quarterly results improved, but momentum has weakened and performance remains below its industry cohort.

What's priced into Impinj, Inc.

PI is valued at a sizable premium to peers, with optionality, or the possibility of future growth, as the main valuation driver. The expectations gap is positive, but model confidence is low, so the evidence does not show clearly that the premium is supported by results already delivered.

What the fundamentals likely do

Near term, management’s stated priorities are showing progress: revenue and adjusted EBITDA rose from the first to the second quarter of 2026, GAAP net income moved from a loss to a profit, and the company reduced convertible debt through repurchases and exchanges. However, momentum fell sharply, earnings surprises have been trending down, and peers have recently missed, so execution and guidance remain important risks.

What Impinj, Inc. hinges on

The multi-year thesis depends on revenue growth continuing while profitability improves and management keeps delivering on its priorities. Near term, a guidance cut would be a meaningful negative; easier interest rates and continued strength from major technology companies could provide a supportive sector backdrop.