Progyny (PGNY)
NASDAQHealth CareMedical - Healthcare PlansSnapshot 2026-09-09
$27.12-0.11%
Close 2026-09-09 · 1-day change
NASDAQHealth CareMedical - Healthcare PlansSnapshot 2026-09-09
Warn: Primary pillar under pressure — Adjusted EBITDA target of $58M-$62M for Q2 2026: Q3 FY26 EBITDA guidance $57.5M vs $58M-$62M target.
Progyny grows revenue to about $1.375 billion in 2026. Profit margins stay strong with adjusted EBITDA near $60 million in Q2. Net income rose to $24 million in Q1 2026. The company supports shareholders with a $200 million share buyback.
Revenue growth could slow below analyst expectations. Profit margins may compress if costs rise. Competition or regulatory changes could hurt earnings.
The price is about 15% below our fair value near $36. Analysts expect roughly 11% revenue growth. Our view aligns with these expectations but sees risk if growth or margins weaken.
Breaks if: adjusted EBITDA falls below $58 million in Q2 2026
Breaks if: net income falls below $13.9 million in any quarter
annual revenue falls below $1.365 billion in FY26
This is not a price target or investment advice.
A long-form read on the 1–3 year hold thesis. It updates when the weekly evidence changes.
PGNY represents a stable investment with a focus on growth and shareholder returns. The current thesis is supported by strong recent financial performance and management's commitment to key priorities.
The market currently prices PGNY as justified, with a low fragility tier. It is seen as cheap compared to peers, but there is an expectations gap indicating that some positive developments may not be fully reflected in the stock.
Fundamentals are expected to remain strong, with management on track to achieve revenue growth and margin expansion. However, there is a low probability of missing earnings expectations, although the trend of earnings surprises is declining.
The thesis hinges on management's ability to maintain guidance and the broader healthcare sector's performance. Key factors include potential guidance cuts and the impact of economic conditions on cyclical names like PGNY.
The most important moves since the prior daily snapshot.
Signal changed from 'favorable' to 'mild_favorable'.
Yes, our read has strengthened. The latest earnings beat supports the thesis. The CalPERS contract win reinforces revenue growth objectives for 2026, aiming for $1.36B-$1.39B.
as of 2026-09-09
Review the evidence to watch, what would become a concern, and what would make it less concerning.
Not investment advice. Scores describe historical and current data; they are not forecasts of future returns. Consult a licensed advisor before making investment decisions.
Achieve revenue growth within the range of $1.365 billion to $1.405 billion for the fiscal year 2026.
Breaks if: buyback program is canceled or materially delayed
Overall, PGNY's outlook is supported by robust management and financials, but it faces risks from external factors. Not investment advice.