Progyny (PGNY)

NASDAQHealth CareMedical - Healthcare PlansSnapshot 2026-10-23

$28.97-0.52%

Close 2026-10-23 · 1-day change

Investment OutlookAs of Oct 25, 2026

What could strengthen or challenge Progyny’s outlook?

The long-term thesis, the evidence coming in, and the environment around it. Thesis dated Jul 8, 2026.

Higher potential upsideImproving expectations

Next-FY EPS estimate change · 30 days

-0.7%

+10% or more+5%0%−5%−10% or less

1.52 → 1.51 EPS · FY ending Dec 31, 2027 · 7 analysts

Higher risk of downsideWeakening expectations

One observable signal. This measures changing earnings expectations, not the probability of a gain or loss.

How this is measured

Change in the same fiscal period’s mean EPS estimate from Sep 25, 2026 to Oct 25, 2026: (new ÷ prior − 1). Contributor count changed from 7 to 7; this is not the number of analysts revising. Source: FMP consensus snapshots. The ±10% axis is a display range.

Measure / period	Management expectations	Analyst expectations
FY 2026 · Q4
Revenue	—	354.39M
EPS	—	0.343
FY 2026 · Annual
Revenue	$1.36B–$1.39B	1.37B
EPS	—	1.285
FY 2027 · Annual
Revenue	—	1.51B
EPS	—	1.51

What the Thesis Depends On

4 published thesis conditions, with dated milestones shown separately.

Key Factor	Why It Matters	Current Status	Break Condition	Latest Evidence
Adjusted EBITDA target of $58M-$62M for Q2 2026	Profit margins stay strong with adjusted EBITDA near $60 million in Q2.	Under Pressure	adjusted EBITDA falls below $58 million in Q2 2026	Direct metric needs a verified mapping The published measure or accounting basis is not supported by an exact source binding. Source date unavailableLast status assessment Oct 25, 2026Compare required operating outcomes Compare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement.
Increase net income through revenue growth and cost management	Net income rose to $24 million in Q1 2026.	Improving	net income falls below $13.9 million in any quarter	Net income: $28.052M FY2026-Q2; GAAP. Published target: net income grows or stays above $24 million next 4 quarters. Target period is not explicitly aligned with this observation. Source published Aug 7, 202628,052,000 USD · source valueSource reportLast status assessment Oct 25, 2026 Measurement source consolidated · GAAP FY2026-Q2 · Period ending Jun 30, 2026 Source: company_financial_results. Reference: f44110e4-d22e-4857-a274-fcc076a7e7cf. Source status: eligible. Compare required operating outcomes Compare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement. Management context Stated as a priority in 3 of last 3 quarters. Net income rose from $17.1 million in 2025-Q2 to $28.1 million in 2026-Q2, with diluted EPS increasing from $0.19 to $0.34. Management has reiterated this focus and is delivering improved profitability. Delivery assessment Oct 25, 2026
Revenue growth to $1.365B-$1.405B in 2026	A primary condition in Progyny's published investment case. The stated target is ~$1.375 billion.	Intact	annual revenue falls below $1.365 billion in FY26	Revenue: $350.511M FY2026-Q2; GAAP. Published target: ~$1.375 billion. Target period is not explicitly aligned with this observation. Source published Aug 7, 2026350,511,000 USD · source valueSource reportLast status assessment Oct 25, 2026 Measurement source consolidated · GAAP FY2026-Q2 · Period ending Jun 30, 2026 Source: company_financial_results. Reference: f44110e4-d22e-4857-a274-fcc076a7e7cf. Source status: eligible. Compare required operating outcomes Compare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement.
Execution of $200M share repurchase program	The company supports shareholders with a $200 million share buyback.	Intact	buyback program is canceled or materially delayed	Direct metric needs a verified mapping The published measure or accounting basis is not supported by an exact source binding. Source date unavailableLast status assessment Oct 25, 2026Compare required operating outcomes Compare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement.

Stored thesis · Jul 8, 2026. Latest Evidence uses source-matched measurements where available, alongside the last thesis-monitor assessment. Source periods and assessment dates are shown separately. A new measurement does not automatically change the published status or verify an older target.

Incoming Evidence

Compare these dated observations with the operating requirements above

Expectations trend

Same fiscal period

FY2027 · fiscal year ending 2027-12-31 · fmp

FY2027 EPS$1.51

$2.25 → $1.51 · observed estimates

FY2027 revenue$1.51B

$1.51B → $1.51B · observed estimates

Exact estimates & source dates

One fiscal period and provider throughout. At least five contributors are required for each plotted metric; missing coverage stays a gap. Axes show the observed range. Counts measure coverage, not revisions.

FY2027 estimate observations · fmp
Snapshot	EPS	Revenue	EPS / revenue analysts
2026-07-24	$2.25	$1,505,217,390	8 / 10
2026-07-25	$2.25	$1,505,217,390	8 / 10
2026-07-26	$2.25	$1,505,217,390	8 / 10
2026-07-27	$2.25	$1,505,217,390	8 / 10
2026-07-28	$2.25	$1,505,217,390	8 / 10
2026-07-29	$2.25	$1,505,217,390	8 / 10
2026-07-30	$1.49	$1,505,204,767	6 / 7
2026-07-31	$2.25	$1,505,217,390	8 / 10
2026-08-01	$1.49	$1,505,204,767	6 / 7
2026-08-02	$1.49	$1,505,204,767	6 / 7
2026-08-03	$2.25	$1,505,217,390	8 / 10
2026-08-04	$1.49	$1,505,204,767	6 / 7
2026-08-05	$1.49	$1,505,204,767	6 / 7
2026-08-06	$1.49	$1,505,204,767	6 / 7
2026-08-07	$1.49	$1,505,204,767	6 / 7
2026-08-08	$2.26	$1,505,080,590	8 / 10
2026-08-09	$1.49	$1,505,204,767	6 / 7
2026-08-10	$2.26	$1,505,080,590	8 / 10
2026-08-12	$2.27	$1,509,577,580	8 / 10
2026-08-13	$1.49	$1,505,204,767	6 / 7
2026-08-14	$1.49	$1,505,204,767	6 / 7
2026-08-15	$1.49	$1,505,204,767	6 / 7
2026-08-16	$1.49	$1,505,204,767	6 / 7
2026-08-17	$1.49	$1,505,204,767	6 / 7
2026-08-18	$1.49	$1,505,204,767	6 / 7
2026-08-19	$1.49	$1,505,204,767	6 / 7
2026-08-20	$1.52	$1,512,564,957	6 / 7
2026-08-21	$1.52	$1,512,013,597	7 / 7
2026-08-22	$1.52	$1,512,286,324	7 / 8
2026-08-23	$1.52	$1,512,286,324	7 / 8
2026-08-24	$1.52	$1,512,286,324	7 / 8
2026-08-25	$1.52	$1,512,286,324	7 / 8
2026-08-26	$1.52	$1,512,286,324	7 / 8
2026-08-27	$1.52	$1,512,286,324	7 / 8
2026-08-28	$1.52	$1,512,286,324	7 / 8
2026-08-29	$1.52	$1,512,286,324	7 / 8
2026-08-30	$1.52	$1,512,286,324	7 / 8
2026-08-31	$1.52	$1,512,286,324	7 / 8
2026-09-01	$1.52	$1,512,286,324	7 / 8
2026-09-02	$1.52	$1,512,286,324	7 / 8
2026-09-03	$1.52	$1,512,286,324	7 / 8
2026-09-04	$1.52	$1,512,286,324	7 / 8
2026-09-05	$1.52	$1,512,286,324	7 / 8
2026-09-06	$1.52	$1,512,286,324	7 / 8
2026-09-07	$1.52	$1,512,286,324	7 / 8
2026-09-08	$1.52	$1,512,286,324	7 / 8
2026-09-09	$1.52	$1,512,286,324	7 / 8
2026-09-10	$1.52	$1,512,286,324	7 / 8
2026-09-11	$1.52	$1,512,286,324	7 / 8
2026-09-12	$1.52	$1,512,286,324	7 / 8
2026-09-13	$1.52	$1,512,286,324	7 / 8
2026-09-14	$1.52	$1,512,286,324	7 / 8
2026-09-15	$1.52	$1,512,286,324	7 / 8
2026-09-16	$1.52	$1,512,286,324	7 / 8
2026-09-17	$1.52	$1,512,286,324	7 / 8
2026-09-18	$1.52	$1,512,286,324	7 / 8
2026-09-19	$1.52	$1,512,286,324	7 / 8
2026-09-20	$1.52	$1,512,286,324	7 / 8
2026-09-21	$1.52	$1,512,286,324	7 / 8
2026-09-22	$1.52	$1,512,286,324	7 / 8
2026-09-23	$1.52	$1,512,286,324	7 / 8
2026-09-24	$1.52	$1,512,286,324	7 / 8
2026-09-25	$1.52	$1,512,286,324	7 / 8
2026-09-26	$1.52	$1,512,286,324	7 / 8
2026-09-27	$1.52	$1,512,286,324	7 / 8
2026-09-28	$1.52	$1,512,286,324	7 / 8
2026-09-29	$1.52	$1,512,286,324	7 / 8
2026-09-30	$1.52	$1,512,286,324	7 / 8
2026-10-01	$1.52	$1,512,286,324	7 / 8
2026-10-02	$1.52	$1,512,286,324	7 / 8
2026-10-03	$1.52	$1,512,286,324	7 / 8
2026-10-04	$1.52	$1,512,286,324	7 / 8
2026-10-05	$1.52	$1,512,286,324	7 / 8
2026-10-06	$1.52	$1,512,286,324	7 / 8
2026-10-07	$1.52	$1,512,286,324	7 / 8
2026-10-08	$1.52	$1,512,314,288	7 / 8
2026-10-09	$1.52	$1,512,314,288	7 / 8
2026-10-10	$1.52	$1,512,314,288	7 / 8
2026-10-11	$1.52	$1,512,314,288	7 / 8
2026-10-12	$1.52	$1,512,314,288	7 / 8
2026-10-13	$1.52	$1,512,314,288	7 / 8
2026-10-14	$1.52	$1,512,314,288	7 / 8
2026-10-15	$1.52	$1,512,314,288	7 / 8
2026-10-16	$1.52	$1,513,541,561	7 / 8
2026-10-17	$1.52	$1,513,541,561	7 / 8
2026-10-18	$1.52	$1,515,651,470	6 / 7
2026-10-19	$1.52	$1,515,651,470	6 / 7
2026-10-20	$1.51	$1,513,844,506	7 / 8
2026-10-21	$1.51	$1,513,844,506	7 / 8
2026-10-22	$1.51	$1,513,844,506	7 / 8
2026-10-23	$1.51	$1,513,844,506	7 / 8
2026-10-24	$1.51	$1,513,844,506	7 / 8
2026-10-25	$1.51	$1,513,844,506	7 / 8

Revenue and EPS estimates track expectations. They are not delivered results or like-for-like proof of a required annual path.

Compare required revenue and earnings

Analyst view

Monthly observations

Buy / Strong BuyHoldSell / Strong Sell

Exact monthly counts

Monthly rating snapshots · fmp. Missing snapshots are not zero.
Date	Buy*	Hold
2026-05-01	10	2
2026-06-01	10	1
2026-07-01	10	2
2026-08-01	10	2
2026-09-01	10	2
2026-10-01	10	2

*Buy includes Strong Buy; Sell includes Strong Sell. Monthly counts describe the analyst mix, not the firms behind each recent action.

Latest: 10 Buy / Strong Buy · 2 Hold · 0 Sell / Strong Sell

0 upgrades0 downgrades0 maintains

Recent actions · Sep 26–Oct 25 · 0 recorded

Price-target changes

30 days

Individual price-target observations are unavailable.

0 raises · 0 cuts · 0 unchanged · 0 without a comparable prior

How this is measured

Sep 26, 2026–Oct 25, 2026. Each firm's latest positive target is paired only with its immediately prior positive target from the same provider, at most 180 days earlier. Unmatched observations have one dot; conflicting observations are not compared.

Outlook in Brief

The evidence, the remaining questions, and what comes next

What's improving

No recovery evidence is reported in the available driver assessments.

Still unresolved / key risks

Adjusted EBITDA target of $58M-$62M for Q2 2026Published status: Under Pressure
Increase net income through revenue growth and cost managementNet income: $28.052M
Revenue growth to $1.365B-$1.405B in 2026Revenue: $350.511M
Execution of $200M share repurchase programDirect metric needs a verified mapping

Next proof point

Nov 4, 2026

Look for updated results and guidance against the published targets, plus direct evidence for unresolved drivers.

Review earnings

Bottom line

4 of 4 published conditions remain under pressure or need verification. The next results need to address those conditions.

The dated weekly assessment and its assumptions are available in Read detailed Outlook.

Historical risk context

Observed price history; separate from operating scenarios

Price sensitivity

1.4%Typical daily move · historical

Downside history

-42.6%Maximum drawdown · trailing year

Read detailed Outlook Company context, assumptions & risks

Progyny outlook in detail

The weekly editorial context below is a separate assessment from the dated monitor evidence above. Recovery observations do not automatically change the published thesis. Unverified outside influences are hypotheses, not measured driver evidence.

Updated Oct 24, 2026

What kind of bet this is

PGNY is a growth-oriented healthcare business with recent strong results and robust earnings quality. Its multi-year view is intact, though the signal has softened from favorable to mildly favorable and risk remains high.

What's priced into Progyny

The valuation evidence describes PGNY as cheap versus peers, while the priced-in tag says expectations are justified and fragility is low. The expectations gap is negative, but the evidence does not explain its size in plain terms, so how much room expectations leave for execution is uncertain.

What the fundamentals likely do

Near term, management is on track with its 2026 revenue-growth goal and has continued to deliver gross-profit and margin improvement. Recent earnings beats support the business setup, but guidance cuts and weakening jobs data are key risks; the company also has a history of a deep miss.

What Progyny hinges on

Over the next few quarters, the thesis hinges on management maintaining its revenue outlook and continuing margin gains. A guidance cut or further weakening in employment could weigh on the business outlook, while continued strong results and higher guidance from healthcare bellwethers would support sector momentum.