Penumbra, Inc. (PEN)

NYSEHealth CareMedical - DevicesSnapshot 2026-10-23

$324.39-0.18%

Close 2026-10-23 · 1-day change

Investment OutlookAs of Oct 24, 2026

What could strengthen or challenge Penumbra, Inc.’s outlook?

The long-term thesis, the evidence coming in, and the environment around it. Thesis dated Jul 8, 2026.

Higher potential upsideImproving expectations

Next-FY EPS estimate change · 30 days

+0.0%

+10% or more+5%0%−5%−10% or less

5.99 → 5.99 EPS · FY ending Dec 31, 2027 · 6 analysts

Higher risk of downsideWeakening expectations

One observable signal. This measures changing earnings expectations, not the probability of a gain or loss.

How this is measured

Change in the same fiscal period’s mean EPS estimate from Sep 24, 2026 to Oct 24, 2026: (new ÷ prior − 1). Contributor count changed from 6 to 6; this is not the number of analysts revising. Source: FMP consensus snapshots. The ±10% axis is a display range.

Measure / period	Management expectations	Analyst expectations
Quarter ending 2026-12-30
Revenue	—	426.92M
EPS	—	1.483
Annual ending 2026-12-31
Revenue	—	1.59B
EPS	—	4.752
Annual ending 2027-12-31
Revenue	—	1.8B
EPS	—	5.99

Management figures unavailable.

What the Thesis Depends On

4 published thesis conditions, with dated milestones shown separately.

Key Factor	Why It Matters	Current Status	Break Condition	Latest Evidence
Gross margin near 68%	A primary condition in Penumbra, Inc.'s published investment case. The stated target is ~68% gross margin.	Intact	Gross margin falls below 66% next year	Gross margin: 67.93% FY2026-Q2; GAAP. Published target: ~68% gross margin. Target period is not explicitly aligned with this observation. Source published Jul 30, 202667.926347 percent · calculatedSource reportLast status assessment Oct 24, 2026 Measurement source consolidated · GAAP FY2026-Q2 · Period ending Jun 30, 2026 Source: company_financial_results. Reference: 214f15aa-50cc-4e34-8e91-70af2aa556ce. Source status: eligible. Compare required operating outcomes Compare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement.
Consistent delivery on revenue growth and margin targets	A supporting condition in Penumbra, Inc.'s published investment case. The stated target is On track with stated revenue and margin goals.	Broken	Management misses revenue or margin targets two quarters in a row	Direct metric needs a verified mapping The published measure or accounting basis is not supported by an exact source binding. Source date unavailableLast status assessment Oct 24, 2026Compare required operating outcomes Compare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement.
Operating margin at least 14.8%	A supporting condition in Penumbra, Inc.'s published investment case. The stated target is >=14.8%.	Broken	Operating margin falls below 13% next year	Operating margin: 10.52% FY2026-Q2; GAAP. Published target: >=14.8%. Target period is not explicitly aligned with this observation. Source published Jul 30, 202610.52158 percent · calculatedSource reportLast status assessment Oct 24, 2026 Measurement source consolidated · GAAP FY2026-Q2 · Period ending Jun 30, 2026 Source: company_financial_results. Reference: 214f15aa-50cc-4e34-8e91-70af2aa556ce. Source status: eligible. Compare required operating outcomes Compare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement.
Revenue grows at least 15% annually	A primary condition in Penumbra, Inc.'s published investment case. The stated target is >=15% YoY.	Broken	YoY revenue growth falls below 10% next year	Revenue growth: 14.9% FY2026-Q2; GAAP. Published target: >=15% YoY. Target period is not explicitly aligned with this observation. Source published Jul 30, 202614.903595 percent · calculatedSource reportLast status assessment Oct 24, 2026 Measurement source consolidated · GAAP FY2026-Q2 · Period ending Jun 30, 2026 Source: company_financial_results. Reference: 214f15aa-50cc-4e34-8e91-70af2aa556ce. Source status: eligible. Compare required operating outcomes Compare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement. Management context Stated as a priority in 3 of last 3 quarters. Revenue grew from $324.1M in 2025-Q1 to $390.0M in 2026-Q2, a 14.9% increase in the latest quarter. Growth is driven by thrombectomy and embolization product lines globally. The trajectory is delivering consistent revenue growth as management emphasized. Delivery assessment Oct 24, 2026

Stored thesis · Jul 8, 2026. Latest Evidence uses source-matched measurements where available, alongside the last thesis-monitor assessment. Source periods and assessment dates are shown separately. A new measurement does not automatically change the published status or verify an older target.

Incoming Evidence

Compare these dated observations with the operating requirements above

Expectations trend

Same fiscal period

FY2027 · fiscal year ending 2027-12-31 · fmp

FY2027 EPS$5.99

$6.25 → $5.99 · observed estimates

FY2027 revenue$1.80B

$1.80B → $1.80B · observed estimates

Exact estimates & source dates

One fiscal period and provider throughout. At least five contributors are required for each plotted metric; missing coverage stays a gap. Axes show the observed range. Counts measure coverage, not revisions.

FY2027 estimate observations · fmp
Snapshot	EPS	Revenue	EPS / revenue analysts
2026-07-24	$6.25	$1,800,355,650	13 / 14
2026-07-25	$6.25	$1,800,355,650	13 / 14
2026-07-26	$6.25	$1,800,355,650	13 / 14
2026-07-27	$6.25	$1,800,355,650	13 / 14
2026-07-28	$6.15	$1,798,764,261	7 / 9
2026-07-29	$6.15	$1,798,764,261	7 / 9
2026-07-30	$6.25	$1,800,355,650	13 / 14
2026-07-31	$6.15	$1,798,764,261	7 / 9
2026-08-01	$6.15	$1,798,764,261	7 / 9
2026-08-02	$6.20	$1,802,013,770	13 / 13
2026-08-03	$6.09	$1,795,735,038	7 / 9
2026-08-04	$6.09	$1,795,735,038	7 / 9
2026-08-05	$6.13	$1,799,762,060	13 / 13
2026-08-06	$6.09	$1,795,735,038	7 / 9
2026-08-07	$6.09	$1,795,735,038	7 / 9
2026-08-08	$6.09	$1,795,735,038	7 / 9
2026-08-09	$6.09	$1,795,735,038	7 / 9
2026-08-10	$6.09	$1,795,735,038	7 / 9
2026-08-12	$6.13	$1,799,785,910	13 / 13
2026-08-13	$6.09	$1,795,735,038	7 / 9
2026-08-14	$6.09	$1,795,735,038	7 / 9
2026-08-15	$6.09	$1,795,735,038	7 / 9
2026-08-16	$6.09	$1,795,735,038	7 / 9
2026-08-17	$6.09	$1,795,735,038	7 / 9
2026-08-18	$6.09	$1,795,735,038	7 / 9
2026-08-19	$6.09	$1,795,735,038	7 / 9
2026-08-20	$5.99	$1,800,029,298	7 / 9
2026-08-21	$5.99	$1,800,029,298	7 / 9
2026-08-22	$5.99	$1,800,029,298	7 / 9
2026-08-23	$5.99	$1,800,029,298	7 / 9
2026-08-24	$5.99	$1,800,029,298	7 / 9
2026-08-25	$5.99	$1,800,029,298	7 / 9
2026-08-26	$5.99	$1,800,029,298	7 / 9
2026-08-27	$5.99	$1,800,029,298	7 / 9
2026-08-28	$5.99	$1,800,029,298	7 / 9
2026-08-29	$5.99	$1,800,029,298	7 / 9
2026-08-30	$5.99	$1,800,029,298	7 / 9
2026-08-31	$5.99	$1,800,029,298	7 / 9
2026-09-01	$5.99	$1,800,029,298	7 / 9
2026-09-02	$5.99	$1,800,029,298	6 / 9
2026-09-03	$5.99	$1,800,029,298	6 / 9
2026-09-04	$5.99	$1,800,029,298	6 / 9
2026-09-05	$5.99	$1,800,029,298	6 / 9
2026-09-06	$5.99	$1,800,029,298	6 / 9
2026-09-07	$5.99	$1,800,029,298	6 / 9
2026-09-08	$5.99	$1,800,029,298	6 / 9
2026-09-09	$5.99	$1,800,029,298	6 / 9
2026-09-10	$5.99	$1,800,029,298	6 / 9
2026-09-11	$5.99	$1,800,029,298	6 / 9
2026-09-12	$5.99	$1,800,029,298	6 / 9
2026-09-13	$5.99	$1,800,029,298	6 / 9
2026-09-14	$5.99	$1,800,029,298	6 / 9
2026-09-15	$5.99	$1,800,029,298	6 / 9
2026-09-16	$5.99	$1,800,029,298	6 / 9
2026-09-17	$5.99	$1,800,029,298	6 / 9
2026-09-18	$5.99	$1,800,029,298	6 / 9
2026-09-19	$5.99	$1,800,029,298	6 / 9
2026-09-20	$5.99	$1,800,029,298	6 / 9
2026-09-21	$5.99	$1,800,029,298	6 / 9
2026-09-22	$5.99	$1,800,029,298	6 / 9
2026-09-23	$5.99	$1,800,029,298	6 / 9
2026-09-24	$5.99	$1,800,029,298	6 / 9
2026-09-25	$5.99	$1,800,029,298	6 / 9
2026-09-26	$5.99	$1,800,029,298	6 / 9
2026-09-27	$5.99	$1,800,029,298	6 / 9
2026-09-28	$5.99	$1,800,029,298	6 / 9
2026-09-29	$5.99	$1,800,029,298	6 / 9
2026-09-30	$5.99	$1,800,029,298	6 / 9
2026-10-01	$5.99	$1,800,029,298	6 / 9
2026-10-02	$5.99	$1,800,029,298	6 / 9
2026-10-03	$5.99	$1,800,029,298	6 / 9
2026-10-04	$5.99	$1,800,029,298	6 / 9
2026-10-05	$5.99	$1,800,029,298	6 / 9
2026-10-06	$5.99	$1,800,029,298	6 / 9
2026-10-07	$5.99	$1,800,029,298	6 / 9
2026-10-08	$5.99	$1,800,029,298	6 / 9
2026-10-09	$5.99	$1,800,029,298	6 / 9
2026-10-10	$5.99	$1,800,029,298	6 / 9
2026-10-11	$5.99	$1,800,029,298	6 / 9
2026-10-12	$5.99	$1,800,029,298	6 / 9
2026-10-13	$5.99	$1,800,029,298	6 / 9
2026-10-14	$5.99	$1,800,029,298	6 / 9
2026-10-15	$5.99	$1,800,029,841	6 / 9
2026-10-16	$5.99	$1,800,029,841	6 / 9
2026-10-17	$5.99	$1,800,029,841	6 / 9
2026-10-18	$5.99	$1,800,029,841	6 / 9
2026-10-19	$5.99	$1,800,029,841	6 / 9
2026-10-20	$5.99	$1,800,029,841	6 / 9
2026-10-21	$5.99	$1,800,029,841	6 / 9
2026-10-22	$5.99	$1,800,029,841	6 / 9
2026-10-23	$5.99	$1,800,029,841	6 / 8
2026-10-24	$5.99	$1,800,029,841	6 / 8

Revenue and EPS estimates track expectations. They are not delivered results or like-for-like proof of a required annual path.

Compare required revenue and earnings

Analyst view

Monthly observations

Buy / Strong BuyHoldSell / Strong Sell

Exact monthly counts

Monthly rating snapshots · fmp. Missing snapshots are not zero.
Date	Buy*	Hold
2026-05-01	4	13
2026-06-01	4	13
2026-07-01	4	13
2026-08-01	3	13
2026-09-01	3	13
2026-10-01	3	14

*Buy includes Strong Buy; Sell includes Strong Sell. Monthly counts describe the analyst mix, not the firms behind each recent action.

Latest: 3 Buy / Strong Buy · 14 Hold · 0 Sell / Strong Sell

0 upgrades0 downgrades0 maintains

Recent actions · Sep 25–Oct 24 · 0 recorded

Price-target changes

30 days

Individual price-target observations are unavailable.

0 raises · 0 cuts · 0 unchanged · 0 without a comparable prior

How this is measured

Sep 25, 2026–Oct 24, 2026. Each firm's latest positive target is paired only with its immediately prior positive target from the same provider, at most 180 days earlier. Unmatched observations have one dot; conflicting observations are not compared.

Outlook in Brief

The evidence, the remaining questions, and what comes next

What's improving

No recovery evidence is reported in the available driver assessments.

Still unresolved / key risks

Gross margin near 68%Gross margin: 67.93%
Consistent delivery on revenue growth and margin targetsPublished status: Broken
Operating margin at least 14.8%Published status: Broken
Revenue grows at least 15% annuallyPublished status: Broken

Next proof point

Nov 4, 2026

Look for updated results and guidance against the published targets, plus direct evidence for unresolved drivers.

Review earnings

Bottom line

4 of 4 published conditions remain under pressure or need verification. The next results need to address those conditions.

The dated weekly assessment and its assumptions are available in Read detailed Outlook.

Historical risk context

Observed price history; separate from operating scenarios

Price sensitivity

0.3%Typical daily move · historical

Downside history

-12.2%Maximum drawdown · trailing year

Read detailed Outlook Company context, assumptions & risks

Penumbra, Inc. outlook in detail

The weekly editorial context below is a separate assessment from the dated monitor evidence above. Recovery observations do not automatically change the published thesis. Unverified outside influences are hypotheses, not measured driver evidence.

Updated Oct 24, 2026

What kind of bet this is

PEN is a growth business with strong recent financial performance, robust earnings quality, and a supportive healthcare backdrop. Its multi-year view is intact, but the signal has become mixed after two recent earnings misses.

What's priced into Penumbra, Inc.

PEN is expensive versus peers, and the valuation model points to a large expectations gap, though its confidence is low. The evidence ties the premium to future optionality, but does not show that weak results or broad turbulence are also priced in.

What the fundamentals likely do

Near-term results may remain uneven: PEN missed earnings in May and July, and the watch notes a run of misses among both the company and peers. Over the multi-year view, revenue growth and gross margin have improved, while management’s priorities are on track; U.S. thrombectomy growth is steady but remains below its stated annual growth rate so far.

What Penumbra, Inc. hinges on

A guidance cut on the next call would be a meaningful negative, while continued weakening in jobs data could increase recession concerns for cyclical healthcare names. Continued earnings strength and higher guidance from sector peers such as ABT, MDT, and SYK would support the sector backdrop for PEN.