Penumbra, Inc. (PEN)
NYSEHealth CareMedical - DevicesSnapshot 2026-09-09
$319.57+0.10%
Close 2026-09-09 · 1-day change
NYSEHealth CareMedical - DevicesSnapshot 2026-09-09
Broken: Primary pillar broken — Revenue grows at least 15% annually: Q2 FY26 rev +14.9% vs 15% target; Q1 FY26 rev +15.6%.
Penumbra grows revenue about 15% a year. Profit margins stay near 68%. The company has strong market positions and steady cost control. Free cash flow yield is positive and stable.
Penumbra's profit margins could shrink below 67.9%. Revenue growth might slow below 10%. High valuation risks a price correction if growth disappoints.
The price is about 37% above our fair value near $232. Analysts expect 15% revenue growth, which we agree with but see limited margin expansion. The valuation is stretched versus peers.
Breaks if: Gross margin falls below 66% next year
Continue to maintain gross margin guidance as part of cost management.
This is not a price target or investment advice.
A long-form read on the 1–3 year hold thesis. It updates when the weekly evidence changes.
This investment represents a stable growth company with a focus on increasing revenue and maintaining margins. The current thesis is intact but is under pressure from recent earnings misses and an expensive valuation compared to peers.
The market appears to price in high expectations for PEN, reflected in its expensive valuation relative to peers. There is a notable expectations gap, indicating that investors may be anticipating continued strong performance.
PEN's fundamentals are likely to remain strong, with management focused on revenue growth and improving gross margins. However, there is a moderate risk of missing earnings expectations, especially given the recent trend of consecutive misses.
The future performance of PEN hinges on management's ability to meet or exceed guidance in upcoming calls and the overall health of the healthcare sector. Key indicators include the performance of sector bellwethers and broader economic conditions, such as employment trends.
The most important moves since the prior daily snapshot.
Yes, our read has weakened. The latest earnings miss has negatively impacted the outlook. Revenue growth fell short of the 15% target, coming in at 14.9%. This performance raises concerns about future growth potential.
as of 2026-09-09
Review the evidence to watch, what would become a concern, and what would make it less concerning.
Not investment advice. Scores describe historical and current data; they are not forecasts of future returns. Consult a licensed advisor before making investment decisions.
Breaks if: Management misses revenue or margin targets two quarters in a row
Continue to maintain gross margin guidance as part of cost management.
Focus on growing total revenue through expansion in thrombectomy and embolization product lines globally.
Stated as a priority in 3 of last 3 quarters. Revenue grew from $324.1M in 2025-Q1 to $390.0M in 2026-Q2, a 14.9% increase in the latest quarter. Growth is driven by thrombectomy and embolization product lines globally. The trajectory is delivering consistent revenue growth as management emphasized.
“Revenue of $390.0 million in Q2 2026, an increase of 14.9% compared to Q2 2025.”
Breaks if: Operating margin falls below 13% next year
Continue to maintain gross margin guidance as part of cost management.
Breaks if: YoY revenue growth falls below 10% next year
Focus on growing total revenue through expansion in thrombectomy and embolization product lines globally.
Stated as a priority in 3 of last 3 quarters. Revenue grew from $324.1M in 2025-Q1 to $390.0M in 2026-Q2, a 14.9% increase in the latest quarter. Growth is driven by thrombectomy and embolization product lines globally. The trajectory is delivering consistent revenue growth as management emphasized.
“Revenue of $390.0 million in Q2 2026, an increase of 14.9% compared to Q2 2025.”
“Revenue of $374.8 million in Q1 2026, an increase of 15.6% compared to Q1 2025.”
“Revenue of $385.4 million for Q4 2025, an increase of 22.1% compared to Q4 2024.”
Over the next 1 to 3 years, PEN's outlook will depend on its execution against growth targets and external economic factors. Not investment advice.
“Revenue of $374.8 million in Q1 2026, an increase of 15.6% compared to Q1 2025.”
“Revenue of $385.4 million for Q4 2025, an increase of 22.1% compared to Q4 2024.”