Pebblebrook Hotel Trust (PEB)

NYSEReal EstateReit - Hotel & MotelSnapshot 2026-10-23

$20.39-1.35%

Close 2026-10-23 · 1-day change

Investment OutlookAs of Oct 24, 2026

What could strengthen or challenge Pebblebrook Hotel Trust’s outlook?

The long-term thesis, the evidence coming in, and the environment around it. Thesis dated Jul 8, 2026.

Higher potential upsideImproving expectations

Next-FY EPS estimate change · 30 days

Comparable estimates unavailable

+10% or more+5%0%−5%−10% or less

A matching fiscal period and sufficient coverage are required.

Higher risk of downsideWeakening expectations

One observable signal. This measures changing earnings expectations, not the probability of a gain or loss.

How this is measured

The calculation requires same-period, same-provider snapshots, positive EPS, at least five analysts and a baseline within three days of the requested lookback.

Measure / period	Management expectations	Analyst expectations
FY 2026 · Q3
Adjusted FFO per share	$0.48–$0.52non-GAAP	—
EBITDA	$100.5M–$104.5M $92.5M–$96.5Mnon-GAAP	—
Same-Property revenue growth	1.4%–3%	—
FY 2026 · Q4
Revenue	—	344.54M
EPS	—	-0.218
FY 2026 · Annual
Revenue	—	1.49B
EPS	—	-0.27
Adjusted FFO per share	$1.69–$1.76non-GAAP	—
EBITDA	$345M–$353Mnon-GAAP	—
FY 2027 · Annual
Revenue	—	1.51B
EPS	—	-0.222

What the Thesis Depends On

4 published thesis conditions, with dated milestones shown separately.

Key Factor	Why It Matters	Current Status	Break Condition	Latest Evidence
Reduce net debt to trailing 12-month corporate EBITDA to 5.5x or lower	The company is reducing debt, cutting net debt to EBITDA from 5.9x to 5.5x.	Intact	net debt to EBITDA rises above 6.0x after 2026-Q1	Direct metric needs a verified mapping The published measure or accounting basis is not supported by an exact source binding. Source date unavailableLast status assessment Oct 24, 2026Compare required operating outcomes Compare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement.
Maintain dividend payments at $0.01 per share	A supporting condition in Pebblebrook Hotel Trust's published investment case. The stated target is >= $0.01 per share per quarter.	Intact	dividend per share falls below $0.01 in any quarter	Dividend per share: $0.01 per share FY2026-Q2; GAAP. Published target: >= $0.01 per share per quarter. Target period is not explicitly aligned with this observation. Source published Jul 29, 20260.01 USD/share · source valueSource reportLast status assessment Oct 24, 2026 Measurement source consolidated · GAAP FY2026-Q2 · Period ending Jun 30, 2026 Source: company_financial_results. Reference: e8bcf80b-c064-406d-93be-8a39d9ebcfaa. Source status: eligible. Compare required operating outcomes Compare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement. Management context Stated as a priority in 3 of last 3 quarters. The Company consistently declared quarterly common dividends of $0.01 per share and regular preferred dividends across Q1 to Q3 2026. Management is delivering on maintaining dividend payments. Delivery assessment Oct 24, 2026
Achieve positive operating income of at least $8.1M	Pebblebrook is improving its operating income, which rose from -$7.2M to $8.1M in one year.	Intact	operating income falls below $0 in any quarter after 2026-Q1	Operating income: $57.241M FY2026-Q2; GAAP. Published target: >= $8.1 million. The stored target says 2026-Q1; this source reports FY2026-Q2. Fiscal/calendar alignment needs review. Source published Jul 29, 202657,241,000 USD · source valueSource reportLast status assessment Oct 24, 2026 Measurement source consolidated · GAAP FY2026-Q2 · Period ending Jun 30, 2026 Source: company_financial_results. Reference: e8bcf80b-c064-406d-93be-8a39d9ebcfaa. Source status: eligible. Compare required operating outcomes Compare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement.
Maintain positive revenue growth near 10% YoY	A supporting condition in Pebblebrook Hotel Trust's published investment case. The stated target is >= 7% YoY.	Broken	YoY revenue growth falls below 7% in any quarter	Revenue growth: -0.1% FY2026-Q2; GAAP. Published target: >= 7% YoY. Target period is not explicitly aligned with this observation. Source published Jul 29, 2026-0.096924 percent · calculatedSource reportLast status assessment Oct 24, 2026 Measurement source consolidated · GAAP FY2026-Q2 · Period ending Jun 30, 2026 Source: company_financial_results. Reference: e8bcf80b-c064-406d-93be-8a39d9ebcfaa. Source status: eligible. Compare required operating outcomes Compare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement.

Stored thesis · Jul 8, 2026. Latest Evidence uses source-matched measurements where available, alongside the last thesis-monitor assessment. Source periods and assessment dates are shown separately. A new measurement does not automatically change the published status or verify an older target.

Incoming Evidence

Compare these dated observations with the operating requirements above

Expectations trend

Same fiscal period

FY2027 · fiscal year ending 2027-12-31 · fmp

FY2027 EPS: comparable history unavailable.

FY2027 revenue$1.51B

$1.50B → $1.51B · observed estimates

Exact estimates & source dates

One fiscal period and provider throughout. At least five contributors are required for each plotted metric; missing coverage stays a gap. Axes show the observed range. Counts measure coverage, not revisions.

FY2027 estimate observations · fmp
Snapshot	EPS	Revenue	EPS / revenue analysts
2026-07-24	Unavailable	$1,501,003,860	3 / 13
2026-07-25	Unavailable	$1,501,003,860	3 / 13
2026-07-26	Unavailable	$1,501,003,860	3 / 13
2026-07-27	Unavailable	$1,501,003,860	3 / 13
2026-07-28	Unavailable	$1,501,003,860	3 / 13
2026-07-29	Unavailable	$1,501,596,170	3 / 13
2026-07-30	Unavailable	$1,501,596,170	3 / 13
2026-07-31	Unavailable	$1,502,859,903	3 / 10
2026-08-01	Unavailable	$1,502,859,903	3 / 10
2026-08-02	Unavailable	$1,505,310,236	3 / 10
2026-08-03	Unavailable	$1,506,377,460	3 / 13
2026-08-04	Unavailable	$1,506,377,460	3 / 13
2026-08-05	Unavailable	$1,505,310,236	3 / 10
2026-08-06	Unavailable	$1,505,310,236	3 / 10
2026-08-07	Unavailable	$1,508,646,521	3 / 10
2026-08-08	Unavailable	$1,506,142,960	3 / 13
2026-08-09	Unavailable	$1,508,646,521	3 / 10
2026-08-10	Unavailable	$1,508,646,521	3 / 10
2026-08-12	Unavailable	$1,508,646,521	3 / 10
2026-08-13	Unavailable	$1,508,646,521	3 / 10
2026-08-14	Unavailable	$1,508,646,521	3 / 10
2026-08-15	Unavailable	$1,508,646,521	3 / 10
2026-08-16	Unavailable	$1,508,646,521	3 / 10
2026-08-17	Unavailable	$1,508,646,521	3 / 10
2026-08-18	Unavailable	$1,508,646,521	3 / 10
2026-08-19	Unavailable	$1,508,646,521	3 / 10
2026-08-20	Unavailable	$1,509,765,378	3 / 10
2026-08-21	Unavailable	$1,509,765,378	3 / 10
2026-08-22	Unavailable	$1,510,114,044	3 / 10
2026-08-23	Unavailable	$1,510,114,044	3 / 10
2026-08-24	Unavailable	$1,510,114,044	3 / 10
2026-08-25	Unavailable	$1,510,114,044	3 / 10
2026-08-26	Unavailable	$1,510,114,044	3 / 10
2026-08-27	Unavailable	$1,510,114,044	3 / 10
2026-08-28	Unavailable	$1,510,114,044	3 / 10
2026-08-29	Unavailable	$1,510,114,044	3 / 10
2026-08-30	Unavailable	$1,510,114,044	3 / 10
2026-08-31	Unavailable	$1,510,114,044	3 / 10
2026-09-01	Unavailable	$1,510,114,044	3 / 10
2026-09-02	Unavailable	$1,510,114,044	3 / 10
2026-09-03	Unavailable	$1,510,114,044	3 / 10
2026-09-04	Unavailable	$1,510,114,044	3 / 10
2026-09-05	Unavailable	$1,510,114,044	3 / 10
2026-09-06	Unavailable	$1,510,114,044	3 / 10
2026-09-07	Unavailable	$1,510,114,044	3 / 10
2026-09-08	Unavailable	$1,510,114,044	3 / 10
2026-09-09	Unavailable	$1,510,114,044	3 / 10
2026-09-10	Unavailable	$1,510,114,044	3 / 10
2026-09-11	Unavailable	$1,508,666,294	4 / 10
2026-09-12	Unavailable	$1,508,666,294	4 / 10
2026-09-13	Unavailable	$1,508,666,294	4 / 10
2026-09-14	Unavailable	$1,508,666,294	4 / 10
2026-09-15	Unavailable	$1,512,908,685	4 / 10
2026-09-16	Unavailable	$1,512,908,685	4 / 10
2026-09-17	Unavailable	$1,512,908,685	4 / 10
2026-09-18	Unavailable	$1,512,908,685	4 / 10
2026-09-19	Unavailable	$1,512,908,685	4 / 10
2026-09-20	Unavailable	$1,512,908,685	4 / 10
2026-09-21	Unavailable	$1,512,908,685	4 / 10
2026-09-22	Unavailable	$1,512,908,685	4 / 10
2026-09-23	Unavailable	$1,512,908,685	4 / 10
2026-09-24	Unavailable	$1,512,908,685	3 / 10
2026-09-25	Unavailable	$1,512,908,685	3 / 9
2026-09-26	Unavailable	$1,512,908,685	3 / 9
2026-09-27	Unavailable	$1,512,908,685	3 / 9
2026-09-28	Unavailable	$1,512,908,685	3 / 9
2026-09-29	Unavailable	$1,512,908,685	3 / 9
2026-09-30	Unavailable	$1,513,592,544	4 / 10
2026-10-01	Unavailable	$1,513,592,544	4 / 10
2026-10-02	Unavailable	$1,513,592,544	4 / 10
2026-10-03	Unavailable	$1,513,592,544	4 / 10
2026-10-04	Unavailable	$1,513,592,544	4 / 10
2026-10-05	Unavailable	$1,513,592,544	4 / 10
2026-10-06	Unavailable	$1,513,592,544	4 / 10
2026-10-07	Unavailable	$1,513,592,544	4 / 10
2026-10-08	Unavailable	$1,513,592,544	4 / 10
2026-10-09	Unavailable	$1,513,592,544	4 / 10
2026-10-10	Unavailable	$1,513,592,544	4 / 10
2026-10-11	Unavailable	$1,513,592,544	4 / 10
2026-10-12	Unavailable	$1,513,592,544	4 / 10
2026-10-13	Unavailable	$1,513,592,544	4 / 10
2026-10-14	Unavailable	$1,513,592,544	4 / 10
2026-10-15	Unavailable	$1,513,592,544	4 / 10
2026-10-16	Unavailable	$1,513,479,044	4 / 10
2026-10-17	Unavailable	$1,513,479,044	4 / 10
2026-10-18	Unavailable	$1,513,479,044	3 / 10
2026-10-19	Unavailable	$1,513,479,044	4 / 10
2026-10-20	Unavailable	$1,513,882,711	4 / 10
2026-10-21	Unavailable	$1,514,461,544	4 / 10
2026-10-22	Unavailable	$1,514,389,102	4 / 10
2026-10-23	Unavailable	$1,514,389,102	4 / 10
2026-10-24	Unavailable	$1,514,389,102	4 / 10

Revenue and EPS estimates track expectations. They are not delivered results or like-for-like proof of a required annual path.

Compare required revenue and earnings

Analyst view

Monthly observations

Buy / Strong BuyHoldSell / Strong Sell

Exact monthly counts

Monthly rating snapshots · fmp. Missing snapshots are not zero.
Date	Buy*	Hold	Sell*
2026-05-01	5	8	4
2026-06-01	5	8	4
2026-07-01	4	9	4
2026-08-01	4	9	3
2026-09-01	4	9	3
2026-10-01	4	9	3

*Buy includes Strong Buy; Sell includes Strong Sell. Monthly counts describe the analyst mix, not the firms behind each recent action.

Latest: 4 Buy / Strong Buy · 9 Hold · 3 Sell / Strong Sell

0 upgrades0 downgrades3 maintains

Recent actions · Sep 25–Oct 24 · 3 recorded

Price-target changes

30 days

○ Previous · ● Latest · common dollar scale

Morgan StanleyOct 22 · prior Oct 12

$14.00 → $15.00+7.1%

Stifel NicolausOct 19 · prior Jun 18

$20.25 → $22.00+8.6%

Raymond JamesSep 28 · prior Jun 8

$18.00 → $20.00+11.1%

$0$12.10$24.20

3 raises · 0 cuts · 0 unchanged · 0 without a comparable prior

How this is measured

Sep 25, 2026–Oct 24, 2026. Each firm's latest positive target is paired only with its immediately prior positive target from the same provider, at most 180 days earlier. Unmatched observations have one dot; conflicting observations are not compared.

Outlook in Brief

The evidence, the remaining questions, and what comes next

What's improving

No recovery evidence is reported in the available driver assessments.

Still unresolved / key risks

Reduce net debt to trailing 12-month corporate EBITDA to 5.5x or lowerDirect metric needs a verified mapping
Maintain dividend payments at $0.01 per shareDividend per share: $0.01 per share
Achieve positive operating income of at least $8.1MOperating income: $57.241M
Maintain positive revenue growth near 10% YoYPublished status: Broken

Next proof point

Oct 29, 2026

Look for updated results and guidance against the published targets, plus direct evidence for unresolved drivers.

Review earnings

Bottom line

4 of 4 published conditions remain under pressure or need verification. The next results need to address those conditions.

The dated weekly assessment and its assumptions are available in Read detailed Outlook.

Historical risk context

Observed price history; separate from operating scenarios

Price sensitivity

1.3%Typical daily move · historical

Downside history

-12.2%Maximum drawdown · trailing year

Read detailed Outlook Company context, assumptions & risks

Pebblebrook Hotel Trust outlook in detail

The weekly editorial context below is a separate assessment from the dated monitor evidence above. Recovery observations do not automatically change the published thesis. Unverified outside influences are hypotheses, not measured driver evidence.

Updated Oct 24, 2026

What kind of bet this is

PEB is a hotel-sector recovery and operating-improvement story, rather than a proven earnings compounder, since the snapshot classifies earnings quality as loss-making. The long-term thesis is intact, with recent financial performance in the industry’s top half and management priorities on track, but management is still rated volatile.

What's priced into Pebblebrook Hotel Trust

The valuation is tagged as justified, with low fragility and a modest expectations gap; the model has medium confidence. PEB trades at a 1.25-times premium versus peers, so the market appears to recognize some operating progress and potential for re-rating, without the evidence showing that expectations are unusually stretched.

What the fundamentals likely do

Near term, recent results and execution point to continued revenue and margin progress: same-property RevPAR rose 6.5% from 2025-Q2 to 2026-Q2, and the hotel EBITDA margin expanded by 67 basis points in 2026-Q2. Debt leverage also declined, while planned capital improvements remain on track; however, the sector backdrop is a headwind and the company has a history of a deep earnings miss, despite a low stated near-term miss risk.

What Pebblebrook Hotel Trust hinges on

Over the next one to three years, the thesis depends on management sustaining operating gains and disciplined capital allocation, especially as the CEO transition unfolds. A reversal of the recently raised guidance would hurt credibility, while Fed rate cuts or continued strong results and higher guidance from hotel peers could support the sector backdrop.