Paylocity (PCTY)

NASDAQIndustrialsSoftware - ApplicationSnapshot 2026-10-23

$177.19-0.27%

Close 2026-10-23 · 1-day change

Investment OutlookAs of Oct 24, 2026

What could strengthen or challenge Paylocity’s outlook?

The long-term thesis, the evidence coming in, and the environment around it. Thesis dated Jul 8, 2026.

Higher potential upsideImproving expectations

Next-FY EPS estimate change · 30 days

+0.4%

+10% or more+5%0%−5%−10% or less

9.69 → 9.72 EPS · FY ending Jun 30, 2028 · 10 analysts

Higher risk of downsideWeakening expectations

One observable signal. This measures changing earnings expectations, not the probability of a gain or loss.

How this is measured

Change in the same fiscal period’s mean EPS estimate from Sep 24, 2026 to Oct 24, 2026: (new ÷ prior − 1). Contributor count changed from 9 to 10; this is not the number of analysts revising. Source: FMP consensus snapshots. The ±10% axis is a display range.

Measure / period	Management expectations	Analyst expectations
Quarter ending 2026-12-30
Revenue	—	446.7M
EPS	—	1.925
Annual ending 2027-06-30
Revenue	—	1.89B
EPS	—	8.844
Annual ending 2028-06-30
Revenue	—	2.04B
EPS	—	9.72

Management figures unavailable.

What the Thesis Depends On

Three published thesis conditions, with dated milestones shown separately.

Key Factor	Why It Matters	Current Status	Break Condition	Latest Evidence
Increase share repurchase program by $1 billion	The company buys back $1 billion more stock, showing strong capital return.	Intact	No further buybacks or cancellation of repurchase program within next year	Direct metric needs a verified mapping The published measure or accounting basis is not supported by an exact source binding. Source date unavailableLast status assessment Oct 24, 2026Compare required operating outcomes Compare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement.
Operating income rises to about $157 million in Q3 FY2026	Profit improves with operating income rising from $127M to $157M in one year.	Intact	Operating income falls below $127M (2025-Q3 level) next year	Operating income: $84.422M FY2026-Q4; GAAP. Published target: ~$157M. The stored target says 2026-Q3; this source reports FY2026-Q4. Fiscal/calendar alignment needs review. Source published Aug 5, 202684,422,000 USD · source valueSource reportLast status assessment Oct 24, 2026 Measurement source consolidated · GAAP FY2026-Q4 · Period ending Jun 30, 2026 Source: stock_quarterly_financials_fmp. Reference: 2026-Q4. Source status: unverified. Compare required operating outcomes Compare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement.
Revenue grows to about $1.64 billion next quarter	Paylocity grows revenue about 11%-12% yearly, reaching $1.64 billion next quarter.	Intact	Revenue falls below $1.48B (10% below guidance mid) next quarter	Revenue: $444.734M FY2026-Q4; GAAP. Published target: ~$1.64B. Target period is not explicitly aligned with this observation. Source published Aug 5, 2026444,734,000 USD · source valueSource reportLast status assessment Oct 24, 2026 Measurement source consolidated · GAAP FY2026-Q4 · Period ending Jun 30, 2026 Source: stock_quarterly_financials_fmp. Reference: 2026-Q4. Source status: unverified. Compare required operating outcomes Compare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement.

Stored thesis · Jul 8, 2026. Latest Evidence uses source-matched measurements where available, alongside the last thesis-monitor assessment. Source periods and assessment dates are shown separately. A new measurement does not automatically change the published status or verify an older target.

Incoming Evidence

Compare these dated observations with the operating requirements above

Expectations trend

Same fiscal period

FY2028 · fiscal year ending 2028-06-30 · fmp

FY2028 EPS$9.72

$9.56 → $9.72 · observed estimates

FY2028 revenue$2.04B

$2.05B → $2.04B · observed estimates

Exact estimates & source dates

One fiscal period and provider throughout. At least five contributors are required for each plotted metric; missing coverage stays a gap. Axes show the observed range. Counts measure coverage, not revisions.

FY2028 estimate observations · fmp
Snapshot	EPS	Revenue	EPS / revenue analysts
2026-07-24	$9.56	$2,050,418,393	5 / 14
2026-07-25	$9.56	$2,050,418,393	5 / 14
2026-07-26	$9.55	$2,046,804,924	5 / 14
2026-07-27	$9.55	$2,046,804,924	5 / 14
2026-07-28	$9.55	$2,046,804,924	5 / 14
2026-07-29	$9.55	$2,046,804,924	5 / 14
2026-07-30	$9.55	$2,046,804,924	5 / 14
2026-07-31	$9.55	$2,046,804,924	5 / 14
2026-08-01	$9.55	$2,046,804,924	5 / 14
2026-08-02	$9.55	$2,046,804,924	5 / 14
2026-08-03	$9.55	$2,046,804,924	5 / 14
2026-08-04	$9.55	$2,046,804,924	5 / 14
2026-08-05	$9.62	$2,050,281,580	13 / 14
2026-08-06	$9.62	$2,050,281,580	13 / 14
2026-08-07	$9.69	$2,034,244,843	7 / 12
2026-08-08	$9.69	$2,034,244,843	7 / 12
2026-08-09	$9.69	$2,034,244,843	7 / 12
2026-08-10	$9.69	$2,034,244,843	7 / 12
2026-08-12	$9.69	$2,034,244,843	7 / 12
2026-08-13	$9.69	$2,034,244,843	7 / 12
2026-08-14	$9.69	$2,034,244,843	7 / 12
2026-08-15	$9.69	$2,034,244,843	7 / 12
2026-08-16	$9.69	$2,034,244,843	9 / 13
2026-08-17	$9.69	$2,034,244,843	9 / 13
2026-08-18	$9.69	$2,034,244,843	9 / 13
2026-08-19	$9.69	$2,034,244,843	9 / 13
2026-08-20	$9.69	$2,034,244,843	9 / 14
2026-08-21	$9.69	$2,034,244,843	9 / 14
2026-08-22	$9.69	$2,034,244,843	9 / 14
2026-08-23	$9.69	$2,034,244,843	9 / 14
2026-08-24	$9.69	$2,034,244,843	9 / 14
2026-08-25	$9.69	$2,034,244,843	9 / 14
2026-08-26	$9.69	$2,034,244,843	9 / 14
2026-08-27	$9.69	$2,034,244,843	9 / 14
2026-08-28	$9.69	$2,034,244,843	9 / 14
2026-08-29	$9.69	$2,034,244,843	9 / 14
2026-08-30	$9.69	$2,034,244,843	9 / 14
2026-08-31	$9.69	$2,034,244,843	9 / 14
2026-09-01	$9.69	$2,034,244,843	9 / 14
2026-09-02	$9.69	$2,034,244,843	9 / 14
2026-09-03	$9.69	$2,034,244,843	9 / 14
2026-09-04	$9.69	$2,034,244,843	9 / 14
2026-09-05	$9.69	$2,034,244,843	9 / 14
2026-09-06	$9.69	$2,034,244,843	9 / 14
2026-09-07	$9.69	$2,034,244,843	9 / 14
2026-09-08	$9.69	$2,034,244,843	9 / 14
2026-09-09	$9.69	$2,034,244,843	9 / 14
2026-09-10	$9.69	$2,034,244,843	9 / 14
2026-09-11	$9.69	$2,034,244,843	9 / 14
2026-09-12	$9.69	$2,034,244,843	9 / 14
2026-09-13	$9.69	$2,034,244,843	9 / 14
2026-09-14	$9.69	$2,034,244,843	9 / 14
2026-09-15	$9.69	$2,034,244,843	9 / 14
2026-09-16	$9.69	$2,034,244,843	9 / 14
2026-09-17	$9.69	$2,034,244,843	9 / 14
2026-09-18	$9.69	$2,034,244,843	9 / 14
2026-09-19	$9.69	$2,034,244,843	9 / 14
2026-09-20	$9.69	$2,034,244,843	9 / 14
2026-09-21	$9.69	$2,034,244,843	9 / 14
2026-09-22	$9.69	$2,034,244,843	9 / 14
2026-09-23	$9.69	$2,034,244,843	9 / 14
2026-09-24	$9.69	$2,034,244,843	9 / 14
2026-09-25	$9.69	$2,034,244,843	9 / 14
2026-09-26	$9.69	$2,034,244,843	9 / 14
2026-09-27	$9.69	$2,034,244,843	9 / 14
2026-09-28	$9.69	$2,034,244,843	9 / 14
2026-09-29	$9.69	$2,034,244,843	9 / 14
2026-09-30	$9.71	$2,039,781,370	9 / 14
2026-10-01	$9.71	$2,039,781,370	9 / 14
2026-10-02	$9.71	$2,039,781,370	10 / 14
2026-10-03	$9.71	$2,039,781,370	10 / 14
2026-10-04	$9.71	$2,039,781,370	10 / 14
2026-10-05	$9.71	$2,039,781,370	10 / 14
2026-10-06	$9.72	$2,041,003,592	10 / 14
2026-10-07	$9.72	$2,041,003,592	10 / 14
2026-10-08	$9.72	$2,041,003,592	10 / 14
2026-10-09	$9.72	$2,041,003,592	10 / 15
2026-10-10	$9.72	$2,041,003,592	10 / 15
2026-10-11	$9.72	$2,041,003,592	10 / 15
2026-10-12	$9.72	$2,041,003,592	10 / 15
2026-10-13	$9.72	$2,041,003,592	10 / 15
2026-10-14	$9.72	$2,041,003,592	10 / 15
2026-10-15	$9.72	$2,041,003,592	10 / 15
2026-10-16	$9.72	$2,041,003,592	10 / 15
2026-10-17	$9.72	$2,041,003,592	10 / 15
2026-10-18	$9.72	$2,041,003,592	10 / 15
2026-10-19	$9.72	$2,041,003,592	10 / 15
2026-10-20	$9.72	$2,041,003,592	10 / 15
2026-10-21	$9.72	$2,041,003,592	10 / 15
2026-10-22	$9.72	$2,041,003,592	10 / 15
2026-10-23	$9.72	$2,041,003,592	10 / 15
2026-10-24	$9.72	$2,041,003,592	10 / 15

Revenue and EPS estimates track expectations. They are not delivered results or like-for-like proof of a required annual path.

Compare required revenue and earnings

Analyst view

Monthly observations

Buy / Strong BuyHoldSell / Strong Sell

Exact monthly counts

Monthly rating snapshots · fmp. Missing snapshots are not zero.
Date	Buy*	Hold	Sell*
2026-05-01	18	5	0
2026-06-01	18	4	0
2026-07-01	18	3	0
2026-08-01	17	3	0
2026-09-01	18	3	0
2026-10-01	18	3	1

*Buy includes Strong Buy; Sell includes Strong Sell. Monthly counts describe the analyst mix, not the firms behind each recent action.

Latest: 18 Buy / Strong Buy · 3 Hold · 1 Sell / Strong Sell

0 upgrades0 downgrades3 maintains

Recent actions · Sep 25–Oct 24 · 3 recorded

Price-target changes

30 days

○ Previous · ● Latest · common dollar scale

GuggenheimOct 23

$200.00New observation · no comparable prior

BarclaysOct 13 · prior Aug 5

$154.00 → $162.00+5.2%

UBSSep 29 · prior Jul 22

$128.00 → $175.00+36.7%

$0$110.00$220.00

2 raises · 0 cuts · 0 unchanged · 1 without a comparable prior

How this is measured

Sep 25, 2026–Oct 24, 2026. Each firm's latest positive target is paired only with its immediately prior positive target from the same provider, at most 180 days earlier. Unmatched observations have one dot; conflicting observations are not compared.

Outlook in Brief

The evidence, the remaining questions, and what comes next

What's improving

No recovery evidence is reported in the available driver assessments.

Still unresolved / key risks

Increase share repurchase program by $1 billionDirect metric needs a verified mapping
Operating income rises to about $157 million in Q3 FY2026Operating income: $84.422M
Revenue grows to about $1.64 billion next quarterRevenue: $444.734M

Next proof point

Nov 5, 2026

Look for updated results and guidance against the published targets, plus direct evidence for unresolved drivers.

Review earnings

Bottom line

3 of 3 published conditions remain under pressure or need verification. The next results need to address those conditions.

The dated weekly assessment and its assumptions are available in Read detailed Outlook.

Historical risk context

Observed price history; separate from operating scenarios

Price sensitivity

1.3%Typical daily move · historical

Downside history

-38.2%Maximum drawdown · trailing year

Read detailed Outlook Company context, assumptions & risks

Paylocity outlook in detail

The weekly editorial context below is a separate assessment from the dated monitor evidence above. Recovery observations do not automatically change the published thesis. Unverified outside influences are hypotheses, not measured driver evidence.

Updated Oct 24, 2026

What kind of bet this is

This is a growth and profitability business with evidence of improving execution, rather than a turnaround story. Its long-term thesis is intact, and recent results remain in the top half of its industry, though the overall risk level is elevated.

What's priced into Paylocity

Valuation is neutral versus peers, with expectations broadly aligned with the evidence and no clear pricing fragility flagged. The expectations gap is modestly negative, so the snapshot does not suggest a large mismatch between market assumptions and fundamentals.

What the fundamentals likely do

Over the multi-year view, revenue, operating income, and free cash flow have grown, and management’s product expansion, AI, and efficiency priorities are on track. Near term, the miss risk is described as low, but a guidance cut would be meaningful, especially given recent peer misses and a deep miss in PCTY’s history.

What Paylocity hinges on

The next call is a key near-term swing factor: a guidance cut could weaken confidence in execution. Over the coming quarters, results and guidance from sector bellwethers such as UBER, ADP, and PAYC could either support the sector backdrop or remove that support.